The odds for 2 mulattos to get a fully white child are higher than of the anomalies in US elections

I am calling a mulatto a person with one fully black and one fully white parent. Each of those has one "white" and one "black" chromosome in each pair. Given 23 chromosome pairs we can compute the probability of fully white or fully black child. It will be 2^(-23) to select all "black"/"white" chromosomes from each of the parents. The result is 2^(-23) * 2^(-23) = 2^(-46) = 1.4 * 10^(-14).

The probability is thus much higher then that of the observed statistical anomalies in US elections, which is 10^(-381) . See: http://www.politicalforum.com/index...-for-romney-a-statistical-possibility.603127/

Now consider a person who has 12 black an 4 white great great grandparents. The probability for such person to be fully white, that is receive all the chromosomes from white ancestors is at least 2.5*10^(-44) . It is again bigger than that of the anomalies in US presidential elections.

 

good luck finding an ALL BLACK person in America unless they just came here from another country.

 

Your math is over my head. But my understanding is the biological baby of a man and woman can be no darker than the darkest parent. Is this in line with your formula?

 

I don't know 100%. I think to lighter people can pump out something darker per how genetics works. I don't have facts at this time though. My comment was in reference to how black slaves were raped and how those genes carried through the generations and then there is mixing and then they get with another half black person. Of course you could say all this stuff in reverse if you wanted to about whites being "blacked", lol. But I don't think many black americans would take a DNA test and come out 100% of African decent. Again, no facts. I'm willing to search for them, just not right now

 

One has no comparison to the other. Apples and oranges.

 

No. Actually two mulattos can produce a fully black child with the small probability computed in the OP.

Let us consider another problem. Think of a mulatto who had one fully black and one fully white parent. Such mulatto will have a "black" and "white" chromosome in every pair. Suppose now that he marries a fully white woman. What is the probability that they get a fully white child? It is the probability to select all "white" chromosomes from the mulatto. Which is 2^(-23) = 1.2 * 10^(-7). Given the number of people on the Earth it could have happened to somebody without wife cheating. But in every particular instance the mulatto suspecting wife in cheating will be right in the vast majority of the cases.

And what should we think about the elections?

 

59/1700 divisions not voting for Romney is hardly shocking especially they lean heavily on the minority side. People don't vote based on chance either. There are things that statistics cannot quantify.

 

I used this definition because only such mulattos are guaranteed to have a "white" chromosome in each pair. Obviously only such mulattos can possibly beget a white child.

Consider another definition. A mulatto is one with half "white" and half "black" chromosomes that is having 23 of both. But they can be distributed in any possible way between pairs. That is there will be "white"-"white" and "black"-"black" pairs. What fraction of all those mulattoes have "black" and "white" chromosomes in every pair? There are 46!/(23!*23!) ways to distribute 23 "black" and 23 "white" ones among 46 positions. Out of those 2^23 will have "black" and "white" in every pair. The ratio of these numbers is 10^(-6).

This means that we need to multiply the number in the OP by 10^(-12). The result is 1.4*10^(-26). This is again much higher than the odds to get the anomalies in US elections in an honest way.

 

Any precincts where 100% of the people voted for a Republican? Ever?

Much less in one election cycle having 50+ of them like the democrats?

 

According to your "math" an interracial couple has 50% chance of having a fully white baby or 50% chance of having a fully black one, but they always end up half & half

 

An all white person breeds with an all black person....if there is such a thing...will produce offspring from all black to all white and anything in between with the same possibility. It can't be predictable because it is all chance.

 

No. Practically all of them end up mixed.

 

The odds of any mix is the same. Punnett squares and all.

 

Except, the genes responsible for black or white skin tone are not spread evenly over all chromosomes, in fact, there are only 6-7 of them, some more important than others. Therefore, your math is bunk.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_skin_color

As to the elections, with 140 million + votes to count, I'd say the chance that there are zero anomalies is basically zero.

 

is melanin level controlled by only 2 genes?

black americans are more genetically similar to white americans than they are to any african tribesmen. the slave owners, you may recall, were fond of experiments in selective breeding, and considered themselves ideal sperm donors.

 

Mix is the key word there, because they are practically always a MIX as opposed to all white or black.

 

When I was a teen there was a "white" man who worked downtown. I would see him on the city sidewalk from time to time. I was told he was a black man who was an albino. He had all the features of a black but he was white with blond/reddish hair. I never saw his parents but they must have been dark.

 

You appear to know much more about biology and genetics than you know about what happened in the election of 2020. It's a safe bet you never had the chance to view 2000 Mules.

 

The odds for 2 mulattos to get a fully white child are higher than of the anomalies in US elections

So, close to none.

 

According to my math the probability for two mulattos to beget a fully white or fully black child is 1.4 * 10^(-14) which is 1.4 * 10^(-12)%.

 

In this exercise I labeled all chromosomes coming from Africa as "black." Just like black balls in urn problems.

You are giving to much importance to skin color. If you photoshop a picture of an African to make his skin look white - it is still will be easy to tell him from a European.

If there are only 7 chromosomes responsible for skin color then the odds for two mulattos to beget a child with completely white or black skin is 1 in 2^14 = 16,384. The odds are only bigger and the claim in the OP becomes only stronger.

BTW with only 7 chromosomes responsible for skin color the odds are high enough for that anomaly to actually happen to some people. Had it happen?

PolitiFact article insisted that it is OK to have 59 divisions in Philadelphia with no votes for Romney. However the probability of this event is 10^(-381).

 

Your post is race obsessed and Americans with decency do not use these race obsessed terms.

 

Well, at least you can't accuse him of White fragility.

 

Yes. Two minutes of homework would have confirmed that.

Well, since you already confirmed you don't care about the objective facts . . .

 

What if I identify as a mulatto and make a baby with a white woman that identifies as black
What will be the racial make up of the child?