The Polls Don't Match the Results

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Xyce, Nov 10, 2022.

  1. Surfer Joe

    Surfer Joe Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2008
    Messages:
    24,287
    Likes Received:
    15,353
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Lol…yeah, having the repubs plumping for a seditious traitor is a great way to make voters choose between bullshit and country.
     
    Rampart likes this.
  2. Overitall

    Overitall Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2021
    Messages:
    12,181
    Likes Received:
    11,542
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Every time we see you guys make this bogus claim all we can do is shake our heads and wonder how long it will take before you get over Trump.
     
  3. Nwolfe35

    Nwolfe35 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2013
    Messages:
    7,318
    Likes Received:
    5,259
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Show
    Me
    The
    Fraud
     
    Rampart and WalterSobchak like this.
  4. Nwolfe35

    Nwolfe35 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2013
    Messages:
    7,318
    Likes Received:
    5,259
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    We will "get over" Trump as soon as the Republicans do.
    As long as Trump has pull with the GOP then no one is "over" him.
     
    Rampart and WalterSobchak like this.
  5. Overitall

    Overitall Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2021
    Messages:
    12,181
    Likes Received:
    11,542
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Yea, Carter was a dumb ass.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/heed-jimmy-carter-on-the-danger-of-mail-in-voting-11586557667

    Maybe Obama was onto something also.
    https://townhall.com/columnists/liz...nst-voting-changes-they-now-call-for-n2568809
     
  6. Nwolfe35

    Nwolfe35 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2013
    Messages:
    7,318
    Likes Received:
    5,259
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Yeah, "Historical Trends"

    Let me give you the 101 on "historical trends". Every major investment firm, somewhere in their prospectus, has the following statement...

    "Past success does not guarantee future performance."

    This is true in every aspect of life, not just investing.
     
    WalterSobchak likes this.
  7. Xyce

    Xyce Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2019
    Messages:
    3,721
    Likes Received:
    2,385
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    “The more people you force to vote by mail, the more invalid ballots you will generate,” said Ion Sancho, a former election supervisor in Leon County, Florida.

    This was once a perfectly palatable thing to say. In fact, it was a quote cited in the New York Times in 2012, talking about the higher risk of voter fraud with mail-in voting. The Times piece goes on to say that voter fraud with mail-in voting is "vastly more prevalent than the in-person voting fraud."

    In fact, according to a report cited in the Wall Street Journal, "Absentee-ballot fraud is a far bigger problem than voter-impersonation fraud--about 50 times more common."

    In fact, according to Mark Joseph Stern at Slate, "Voter fraud occurs through absentee ballots. The vast majority of voter fraud prosecutions . . . involve absentee ballots that were illegally cast. And the only voting fraud schemes with the potential to actually swing elections involved mail-in ballots."

    Why is mail-in voting so ripe for corruption? One reason has to do with the state of our electoral landscape. "Approximately 24 million--one of every eight--voter registrations in the United States are no longer valid or are significantly inaccurate. More than 1.8 million deceased individuals are listed as voters. Approximately 2.75 million people have registrations in more than one state."

    In conjunction with that, the lack of transparency relative to in-person voting is a recipe for more fraud, since with mail-in voting, "the ballot is cast outside the public eye, and thus the opportunities for coercion and voter impersonation are greater. Second, the transmission path for VBM ballots is not as secure as traditional in-person ballots."

    It's a plain fact: mail-in balloting leads to more fraud.
     
  8. Overitall

    Overitall Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2021
    Messages:
    12,181
    Likes Received:
    11,542
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Scary guy, huh? :)
     
  9. Xyce

    Xyce Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2019
    Messages:
    3,721
    Likes Received:
    2,385
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    It's absolutely insane that we don't know who controls the House and Senate at this point.

    Florida was able to count their ballots in a day. Why is this taking so long? Is it ineptitude or fraud?
     
  10. Xyce

    Xyce Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2019
    Messages:
    3,721
    Likes Received:
    2,385
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    True, but the second election in a row where historical trends are null and void strains credulity.
     
  11. WalterSobchak

    WalterSobchak Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2010
    Messages:
    24,516
    Likes Received:
    21,512
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Only to those who are sour cause the elections didn't go their way. Guarantee your feelings regarding fraud would not exist if the red tsunami actually occurred.
     
  12. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2010
    Messages:
    14,840
    Likes Received:
    4,815
    Trophy Points:
    113
    If you actually read the article you linked, you'd see an actually decent analysis of why it isn't as straight forwards and the simple headline results from issue-based polling don't show the entire picture of the massive range of things that will influence any individuals vote.

    Even just considering your headline view, you're assuming that voters consider the individual Republican candidates standing in their areas would be able to influence the economy if they were elected. Not everyone will be working on your assumption that Republicans are always better than Democrats on the economy (correctly or not) and a combination of issues they consider less important individually could still play a greater role together that economic considerations alone.
     
  13. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2015
    Messages:
    22,694
    Likes Received:
    11,760
    Trophy Points:
    113
    As HBO showed in a documentary 20 years ago, the US voting system with its machines and arcane voting rules in some states is ripe for abuse. It's almost as though it was designed to be manipulated, with some states systems more easily defeated than others.

    The last 2 elections have shown that to be true.

    Voting in this country has become a very cruel joke on the people.
     
  14. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2016
    Messages:
    42,519
    Likes Received:
    18,646
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Being worldwide phenomena doesn't mean "every country". It just means that it's due to the world situation. For example, there is NOTHING Biden has done to cause gas prices to go up.

    What are you talking about. Unemployment is at a historical low. Giving people checks during the pandemic was the right thing to do, but it was done by the both parties. But at this point it has way less effect than tax breaks for the rich. Or did you think that such enormous tax breaks for Trump's pals would have no effect?

    Inflation is caused by MANY factors. Including the fact that the middle class has more money to spend. Which is the good inflation. But also by rising gas prices, and by irresponsible policies,, especially by Republicans, in the last administration. Plus rising gas prices and other factors that are not under the control of EITHER administration.

    Bottom line: people who understand what is going on understand that there is not much EITHER party can do to cut inflation at this point. So they might as well vote for whatever issue was second on their list. And that turned out to be things like defending democracy and human rights. Which Democrats do and Republicans DON'T.
     
    Rampart likes this.
  15. independentthinker

    independentthinker Banned

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2015
    Messages:
    8,114
    Likes Received:
    4,552
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Maybe the polls are wrong about what the most important things are bothering Americans.
     
    Independent4ever likes this.
  16. Independent4ever

    Independent4ever Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2020
    Messages:
    3,542
    Likes Received:
    3,578
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Polls are wrong period is my usual assumption
     
    independentthinker likes this.
  17. Xyce

    Xyce Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2019
    Messages:
    3,721
    Likes Received:
    2,385
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Out of the 44 countries that are dealing with inflation, studied by Pew Research Center, the US, under Biden, has the 13th highest level of inflation. That means 31 countries are handling inflation better than the United States. To put that in even greater perspective, we're in the bottom 29% of countries when it comes to handling inflation. And that has to do with Democrat policies, such as lockdowns, giving people more money to not work, and Biden's signature American Rescue Plan, which all economists, from both the left and right, say attributed to inflation. In fact, some economists say half of the inflation can be attributed to the Biden's American Rescue Plan. As for how low unemployment is, this is twisting statistics. Unemployment is based on how many people are looking for a job. There are some people that are not looking for a job. This is where the labor participation rate falls into play that fundamentally characterizes the state of the economy and thus places the unemployment rate into proper perspective. In 2019, the labor participation rate was 63.6%, as compared to 62.2% in October 2022, and labor participation rate is still dropping. So, if voters voted Democrat to help with the economy, they are very, very uninformed or very, very stupid.
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2022
  18. JohnHamilton

    JohnHamilton Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2022
    Messages:
    6,059
    Likes Received:
    4,910
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Perhaps we have read the polls wrong.

    When a poll says people think the country is going in the wrong direction, the assumption is, Biden and the Democrats are too progressive. What the real answer is, Biden is not radical enough?

    The polls say people are concerned about the economy. We assume that people want the government to improve economic growth and get inflation under control. What if the people simply want more free money from the government? That’s 50% of them seem to want or think of it as an entitlement.

    Clearly the polls that said the election would be tight were right. The issues highlighted in the polls were right. The trouble the people might that the a lot of free stuff is really the answer.
     
  19. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2016
    Messages:
    42,519
    Likes Received:
    18,646
    Trophy Points:
    113
    No. That just means that the United States economy is based more on consumption than any other nation. As it has always been.

    But there is nothing Biden or Democrats... or even Republicans (at this point) can do to mitigate inflation.

    Lockdowns were a way to save lives. As I said, tax breaks for the rich have had way more long term impact on the economy than lock downs. The impact lock downs and both Trump's and Biden's stimulus packages was that people in the lower and middle class could now buy more. And they don't need to work two or three jobs, like they used to. This is the GOOD inflation. The BAD inflation comes from outside due to increases in oil and gas prices, grains, etc... much of which is due to Putin.

    Especially the people who used to need two or three jobs. Which causes some pains, but it's a GOOD thing. We shouldn't be exploiting people like that. We will adjust and, in the end, we will have a more equitable wealth distribution.

    But YOUR thread was about voters. Despite inflation, most voters can now AFFORD more. Why would they want that to change? Do you think they WANT to have to work two and three jobs and end up with nothing?

    THAT's why so many people voted for democrats despite the fact that they are concerned about the economy. Bottom line, they just thought that Republicans would make it worse. They have no apetite for more tax breaks for the rich, which is the ONLY thing Republicans do when they're in power.
     
    Rampart and politicalcenter like this.
  20. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2011
    Messages:
    11,101
    Likes Received:
    6,787
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    It ain't about free stuff. It is about women's rights, access to healthcare, etc.
     
    Rampart likes this.
  21. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    52,317
    Likes Received:
    48,705
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    A major plan will be to get off of the neck of gas and oil producers and stop over regulating them.

    Stop prohibiting new gas and oil drilling leases stop penalizing the industry financially.
     
  22. Xyce

    Xyce Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2019
    Messages:
    3,721
    Likes Received:
    2,385
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2022
  23. Xyce

    Xyce Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2019
    Messages:
    3,721
    Likes Received:
    2,385
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Inflation has eroded, not improved, purchasing power: "the average worker saw hourly pay fall 2.6% in April from a year ago after accounting for inflation, according to the Labor Department."
     
  24. Izzy

    Izzy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2022
    Messages:
    8,990
    Likes Received:
    5,304
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    Easy-peasy answer.

    It wasn’t just “the economy stupid”—it was abortion.
    Elaine Kamarck and William A. Galston Thursday, November 10, 2022

    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/11/10/it-wasnt-just-the-economy-stupid-it-was-abortion/
     
  25. Xyce

    Xyce Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2019
    Messages:
    3,721
    Likes Received:
    2,385
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

Share This Page