Crimean Kerch Bridge destroyed?

Discussion in 'Latest US & World News' started by zoom_copter66, Oct 8, 2022.

  1. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    I consider the elections to be worthless because they never fix anything. But elections will occur well into the future nevertheless. The end of democracy was a political ploy used by the democrats to foment fear. Apparently it worked. But is was still a lie.
     
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  2. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    Both sides do that, of course. They use all sorts of hyperbole and fear mongering to drive people to the polls.

    Elections do make a difference, though. We get public policies out of them. We get the general direction the country takes out of them.
     
  3. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    Yes both sides do it. Both sides are corrupt. And, yes, we get bad public policies out of elections for the most part. Mostly what we get is new names on the office doors.
     
  4. Nemesis

    Nemesis Well-Known Member

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    Is Russia still "mopping up" their huge victory in Ukraine?
     
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  5. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Pretty much -- The land along the Black Sea has been secured .. the river providing a natural border in the south. The North around Donesk is now the one remaining front line .. and with winter setting in the Azov Battallion will not be able to do much. By the time spring comes we may have a negotiated settlement... by the sounds coming from the US and EU who now want to get this thing over with.
     
  6. LibDave

    LibDave Newly Registered

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    First, the winters in Southern Kherson and the Crimea are not that severe. Average temperatures drop to 25 degrees Fahrenheit.

    Second, the land along the Black Sea has not been "secured". I wouldn't feel secure if I were a Russian soldier in Southern Kherson or the Crimea at the moment. Partisan activity in southern Kherson is frequent. Melitopol will likely fall soon, putting the bridge to Kerch in range of HIMARS and MLRS. I don't hold-out much hope it will survive long after that. This puts Russian forces in Kherson and Crimea in a difficult position. It is unclear what provisions have been made, but they will eventually run out. And I'm sure morale is quite low as Russia doesn't tend to value the comfort (or lives) of their soldiers.

    Ukrainian forces are within 25 miles of Melitopol, and Ukrainian loyalists are fighting within Melitopol already. Russian separatists in Melitopol are vastly outnumbered by loyalists. Secure routes into the city don't exist for the Russians and the performance of the Russian forces doesn't seem to bode well for a break-through. Early signs indicate Ukraine is even making advances across the Dnieper in Kherson. This was somewhat of a surprise to me and if true indicates the Ukrainians believe their best move is to take out the fleeing Russians now rather than allowing them time to regroup in Crimea or Eastern Ukraine. At the moment it isn't clear they can even reposition these forces to Eastern Ukraine. Russia may soon be left with no choice but to retreat back into Crimea or suffer the complete loss of its southern army. My best guess is the activity in Kherson it intended to hold the Russian forces in place in Kherson for just that purpose. Their position in Kherson is tentative and they will likely soon find their avenues of retreat blocked. Just the fall of Melitopol would mean the "land along the Black Sea" is anything but secure. And if I were a "one-use soldier" in Mariupol I would be getting out now. Mariupol is in a very tenuous position should Melitopol fall. The Ukrainians have quite a few options and the Russians aren't likely to succeed in thwarting any of them, let alone all of them.
     
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  7. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The Black sea moderates the temp close to the Sea ... that is how it works in coastal regions - but the fighting will not be in Kherson in the South - the massive river providing a natural barrier and border.

    This restricts the front line to the north... and 25 miles of Melitopal would be the southern most extent of the front line in the north .. up in Donesk winters are quite nasty .. and will really slow things down.

    "Making advances across the Dnieper " is silliness .. did they send a few frog-men over ? Sure they can do some raids .. but they can not get a foothold on the other side of the River.

    Melitopol is near the front line .. as you say .. and taking the city of Melitopol is one thing .. securing the surrounding territory is another. -- but good area to watch.. if any advance to be made will be in that area .. but with the onset of Winter .. will be very slow going. ..

    Your Dreams about Mariupol -- highly unlikely fantasy at the moment -
     
  8. LibDave

    LibDave Newly Registered

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    They have no need to establish a foothold across the Dnieper. Its purpose is merely a minor engagement holding them in place. When Melitopol falls THAT will be the foothold. And from there the longevity of the Kerch bridge will be quite short. What is your assessment of the Russian position when Ukraine occupies Melitopol and takes out the Kerch bridge? This doesn't appear to have superb prospects to remaining in the Kherson region. No supplies and in jeopardy of being stranded in Kherson. A retreat into Crimea would be mandatory. Even then, the Russians would find it difficult to resupply Crimea.
     
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  9. AARguy

    AARguy Well-Known Member

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    Sounds a lot like what the Germans faced.
     
  10. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    My assessment is that you are dreaming .. For the moment .. Crimea and the region along the Black Sea in the South is secure .. Ukraine unable to attack effectively over the Dneiper. The fighting is then in the North .. this is the front line .. of course if Ukraine is able to push down south ... they may well retreat into Crimea .. but that hasn't happened .. and is not happening anytime soon .. the counter offensive having been stalled for over a month .. and it is going to be very slow going over winter .. if not completely stalled until Spring.

    So these dreams of taking Melitopol and the surrounding region is unlikely any-time soon .. and thus the prognostications on the basis of this unlikely fantasy are further asunder.
     
  11. USVet

    USVet Well-Known Member

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    Crimea will be retaking by the end of next summer. The whole southern front has a lack of supplies due to no functioning railroads being able to supy Russian forces there. Ukraine simply has to destroy logistics and transport trucks like they did in Kherson to repeat the same defeat for Russia all along the southern front.

    Without food, fuel, or ammo Russia cannot sustain its forces on the southern front.
     
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  12. Nemesis

    Nemesis Well-Known Member

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    Yep. Ukraine needs to patient while the Russians succumb in the South.
     
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  13. USVet

    USVet Well-Known Member

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  14. ricmortis

    ricmortis Well-Known Member

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    FYI. Ukraine is already crossing the River, so no longer secure.
     
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  15. USVet

    USVet Well-Known Member

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    Elections in Florida sure fixed a lot of problems. Maybe the problem is who you have been voting for?
     
  16. USVet

    USVet Well-Known Member

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    I agree though moving in force is different from a few raiders. I want to see solid evidence of which we are talking about. Honestly, crossing big rivers, and the Deniper River is only slightly smaller than the Mississippi River, is difficult for militaries to do in force especially if they are opposed by competent forces. A much easier and thus better idea is to come down from the north to the coast of the Azov sea. There is just a lot fewer geographic obstacles there.

    They could do that any where from Melatipol to Mariupol. Melatipol is probably better strategically as theor is a deep bay jutting north from the sea of Azov thus closing much of the distance. Where ever they direct theor attack I expect months of HIMARS, artillery, missiles, and even aircraft attacks to destroy supply trucks on the one, cou t it one, highway, Russia uses to supply the entire southern front. A few months of little to no food, fuel, or ammo should really make the Russian position unsustainable.

    If Russia was run by smart people they would recognize and anticipate that this is going to occur and withdraw from militarily unsolvable positions. Sadly, they have the incompetent Putler who cannot withdraw without losing all of his support in Russia. He put himself in that position so he gets no sympathy from me especially after he has directed so many war crimes and crimes against humanity to be committed by his forces.
     
  17. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    I don't vote. As I said I consider it to be pointless at least for me.
     
  18. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Why you repeating what I already told you and crying out FYI ? Strange your posts are.
     
  19. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    Kherson being liberated has reverberated all throughout the south ....and has given partisans in occupied territory that much more motivation....attacks on occupiers will multiply exponentially.
     
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  20. LibDave

    LibDave Newly Registered

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    Agreed. That does seem to be the case.
     
  21. Bill Carson

    Bill Carson Banned

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    Crimean bridge not destroyed, repairs on schedule to be finished before year end, 6 months ahead of schedule.

    Sorry ukie terrorists and terrorist supporters (USG). :laughing:

    [​IMG]
     
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  22. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    Links....sources?

    This isn't convincing.
     
  23. Bob Newhart

    Bob Newhart Well-Known Member

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    The one portion of the bridge does allow for light traffic like cars but not heavy transport trucks. The other vehicle bridge will likely be repaired before the end of the year allowing heavy trucks to pass. This is if the work is not interrupted before then. Crimea is still in deep doo-doo.
     

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