I'm surprised this appeared in The National Interest since this is counter-intuitive to the US National Security establishment China, Not Russia, Still Poses the Greatest Challenge to U.S. Security ...The result is that Moscow appears less of a threat than many of us had supposed, while Europeans are doing more to shoulder their own defense. If anything, this should make the United States more, not less, ready to focus on Asia. Indeed, in these circumstances, it is actually hard to understand the logic of increasing America’s focus on Europe. Why would we double down in Europe at the expense of Asia when there is less of a threat from Russia and more European self-help—all while the danger in the primary theater only increases? Yet many in the foreign policy and political elite seem to view the Russo-Ukrainian War as an opportunity precisely to double down in Europe. Even more, for some, it is a chance to try to turn the foreign policy clock back to the globe-spanning liberal imperialism of two decades ago. Washington must resist this temptation like the plague. The breathtakingly hubristic foreign policies of the 2000s were unwise even in the period of unipolarity, as we have found to our chagrin. As American leaders sermonized on an end to evil, China rose at our expense; our military expeditions in the Middle East ended in frustration, when not failure; and we lost our military edge and many of our economic advantages. Of course my best guess is that the administration and the NatSec establishment will continue to ignore China as long as they can.
China won, not through war but through trade, through hard work and persisted to be the best in the world market. On the other hand, I don't think the Chinese are interested in breaking the rules... because then they will be left alone and have no one to fxxk
China definitely poses the greater threat, but it isn't a military threat. It is a threat to the economy. As China rises the USA will fall at least comparatively. The unequal distribution of wealth globally will likely even out a bit overall too, which means more and more people around the world out of poverty, and less comfortable lives for those in the USA.
That is true for the immediate future, but I don't know what happens once China is truly on top. The west keeps them in check at present.
China is the greatest threat but also India is china's promblem and can absorb china. What we need is another war near china sucha as another Indonesian war to make more front for China to make too much for it to handle.
