World Wide Auto Sales for 2022

Of the top 4 models of car sold in the world today, 3 were ice vehicles.

Each of those ice models LOST sales in 2022 vs previous years.

The 4th is the Tesla model Y. That car gained 88% growth over 2021.

In fact, of the top 7 all lost ground in world sales except Tesla Y and Tesla 3.

Now, kicking off 2023 we have Tesla giving up some of its industry leading profit per car, thus lower its prices significantly.

Surely this is telling in terms of the future.

https://www.focus2move.com/world-ca... ranking for,advantage over all the followers.

If you have cites to better world wide sales figures, PLEASE let me know.

 

Notes:

It looks like the 8th place Chevy Silverado pickup was the only ICE vehicle in the top 8 to gain sales percent (across the world, of course). I don't know what the 9th and 10th were, but whatever they are, they are 9th and 10th!

The Ford F series is high (though declining) partly because all models of F series trucks are combined into one sales number. Some disagree with that accounting, as the F series vehicles have a pretty broad range. (I don't care about that. If you want to take on Ford, you have to face their lineup.)

BYD is making a ton of vehicles (evs, phevs, hybrids), but each of its models is considered separate. So, they don't really make the charts yet. Also, right now they are selling almost exclusively in China. However, they plan to expand to 30 countries this year.

 

I bought a new Kia Soul a couple years ago. Paid cash for 15K. Totally reliable. A range of 400 miles give or take. The MPG for stop and go driving is 33-35. It runs in cold weather. I also purchased a New Subaru this fall for 23K. Too soon to tell about beling reliable but the range, MPG, and ability to operate in a cold climate are similar to my Kia.

I just looked up the price of a Tesla Model Y which was 51K. It may or may not be reliable but repair work would be limited to the dealer with OEM parts perhaps not always available. Battery replacement may be expensive and would be (at least at first) limited to OEM replacements. It will not be suitable for long trips and will not run far in extreme cold. Particularly if interior heat is required.

So, it is great that you or anyone else may want to purchase a Tesla. I do not. If they can make it in a free market great. These cars are probably a good choice for upper middle class or rich liberals in CA to impress their friends. Well they were before Musk purchased Twitter.

 

Cool cars you chose. My wife likes the Soul. It looks really useful as well. I didn't know its mileage was that good.

If you don't have serious income, you would probably qualify for the $7,500 federal rebate on EVs. Eight states have other rebates, too.

I think they are still priced too high. Tesla is still making a LOT OF BUCKS off their cars - WAY more than any other car being sold, ICE or EV. I hate forking money to Musk!!

It'll come down. All manufacturers are interested in more than just "early adopter" types. Plus, manufacturing investments will get paid for.

 

At the moment that is not where the EV market is exploding



It is the short commute vehicle that is cornering a huge market, here at least.

 

Yes, there are some 3-wheel types that come with weather protection and solar panels that actually make a major difference, too.

But, probably not getting rebates and a lot more expensive that the one in your pic.

It's going to be interesting to see how transportation changes.

 

We are being flooded with electric scooters from China - these things have a top speed of around 25k/h and are not for the open road but increasing numbers are buying them for shopping

 

many want Trucks like they built then in the 80's and 90's, when they would last 20+ years easy

 

Which is why using these sales figures is distorting. What would they be if the ICE vehicles got the same subsidies?

 

Toyota set to lead global auto sales for 3rd straight year
https://asia.nikkei.com › Business › Automobiles › Toy...

Dec 27, 2022 — TOKYO -- Toyota Motor said Monday it sold 9.56 million vehicles worldwide from January to November, on par with the same period of 2021, ...

 

Deleted.

 

I think what you are seeing in car sales is the in part the covid supply chain disruptions that led to many of the car sales declining as well as high gas prices giving a boost to Tesla cars. Now that the price of gas is going down, there is a direct relationship, it appears, that Tesla car sales are also going down as well, hence the price cutting to maintain those sales. The problem with Tesla is not the price per vehicle, but the replacement costs such as the batteries in the car for instance. If those have to be replace after their warranty, it may cost up to $10000 to replace those batteries. And that also devalues the car and its resale value.

 

Good concern.

I think I listed world sales leaders. And, I don't know world subsidy programs.

In the US EV subsidies ran out for the Tesla model Y (and some other EVs) well before the 4th quarter of 2022.

That 4th quarter was a major sales quarter for Tesla.

This 1st quarter is somewhat muddled in the USA by the new round of subsidies and by the serious Tesla price cuts - both probably causing Tesla orders to spike.

In part, Tesla in the USA is capturing sales that might have gone to other EV companies. I've seen reports of people abandoning orders for non-Tesla EVs so they can take advantage of Tesla's price cuts.

 

Gas price and volatility are probably somewhat of an issue. The idea of being free of gas corporations is appealing for many. I would suspect buyers are looking longer term than the gas prices of the previous quarter. Plus, it's still cheaper per mile to drive an EV due to fuel and maintenance.

Tesla batteries are said to last between 300,000 and 500,000 miles.

Other EVs will eat into Tesla market share, I would suspect. For example, BYD has been selling pretty much exclusively in China. They are now preparing to launch in 30 other countries. That doesn't include the USA, but most auto manufacturers are multinational. All our vehicles will fact BYD in Europe, for example.

It's been quite popular to write Tesla off.

 

I would take a look at big SUVs or SUVs in general. When gas prices are high, these sales go down, incentives go up, and they are generally, on a per-unit basis, the most profitable vehicles out there. In other words, there is a direct relationship between gas prices and how well or how poorly car sales will do, assuming other things remain equal. And then you have cars like the Pugeot for instance that will not be able to get rid of its bad reputation as a piss poor vehicle of poor quality no matter what they do. But those are the outliers.

specialty cars, like Lamborghini and others, will have pretty much the same sales or profitability no matter what. They sell few but their demand will always be high.

The other interesting thing is looking at the Chinese Market and how consumers there buy cars and why they buy them, what they are looking for, etc. And if car sales are going to jump for any MNC car manufacturing, that will be the place I will look at first before I look at the US or Europe.

 

Just the ticket for those rainy mornings.

 

Well, I agree there is a connection, but I'd rather measure by the high volume vehicles that are the majority on our streets and determine the success of major manufacturers. Also, I would hope that purchase decisions are taking a longer view of fuel prices, though price spikes do make buyers remember fuel!

Aren't Lamborghini, Maserati and other such cars just rich man's toys?

I think all those manufacturing in the US are multinational, or they are startups, like Rivian. If our manufacturers lose sales in other countries, it's a problem for them.

 

Interesting cite for China sales:

https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-china-by-month

 

The declining sales in most cars is because the increasing price.

What Tesla is doing is getting ahead of the bubble burst. Ford and GM as well as Volkswagen and Audi and Mercedes and all these other car manufacturers They Ride the good times as long as they can until the wheels fall off.

Elon musk isn't really a businessman that's why his choice to drop price in the heat of extreme pricing is so surprising.

A good thing about it is it might just break the big car manufacturers.

Wondering if the chip shortage that seems to have been plaguing car manufacturers was just a scam.

They only put the chips in the cars they can get the highest margin on luxury cars. So the cars that the average person buys get shuffled to the back of the line because it's about making money.

 

Because electric company execs are more virtuous?

Hmmm....

Driving 100 Miles in an EV Is Now More Expensive Than in an ICE

No longer needing to buy gasoline is one of the most convincing selling points for potential electric vehicle customers. It’s easy to conclude that owning an EV and recharging at home is cheaper than using a car powered by an internal combustion engine. The conclusion is correct if a driver switches powertrains between luxury vehicles, like going from a Porsche Macan to an electric Porsche Taycan.

However, a recent report from the Anderson Economic Group (AEG) found that fueling costs from mid-priced ICE-powered vehicles are lower than similarly priced electric vehicles. Combustion drivers pay about $11.29 per 100 miles on the road. EV drivers who charge up at home spend about $11.60 per 100 miles. The price difference is more dramatic for those who mainly recharge at stations. Frequent charging station users pay $14.40 per 100 miles....
https://autos.yahoo.com/driving-100...yoA;_ylu=Y29sbwNiZjEEcG9zAzEEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3Ny

 

Interesting points.

JPMorgan says car prices last September were up by over 6% over the previous September.

Your "high priced vehicles first" point seems quite possible to me. I know that some EV makers have had to choose which models get their short supply of batteries.

I think Tesla has made it a point to depend on suppliers as little as possible. They make their own motors and a good percentage of all their batteries. Ford and others buy their gas engines and a lot of other components. That makes them somewhat dependent and it also means that suppliers get part of the profit.

I hope Tesla doesn't run off our legacy auto manufacturers. I believe Ford and Stellates can make good cars, and we're better off with competition. Plus, without them, we're likely to see China enter our car marketplace with BYD and others.

I think that is the real purpose of federal benefits for USA EV buyers of cars made in the USA.

It's a support for "made in America" that I think is justified by the importance of manufacturing. It also preservers competition.

I'm not in favor of anybody breaking Ford or Stellantis. I think we're better off with a real opportunity for competition.

 

I which case you take a raincoat and hope you do not melt

 

When it comes to vehicle purchase decisions and the average consumer, no. It is based on price per month, reliability, and utility. That is why trucks and SUVs are very popular nowadays. YOu can basically pack almost anything in these vehicles if you have children and tweens with you. And these vehicles can bet anywhere from below average to average gas miles in the city, which is where they are used mostly. That is why the rise and fall of gas prices, along with credit availability and net personal income are more in play. These purchases are not impulse buys, but they are not long-term buys either. And the reason why they are not long-term buys is the volatility of gas prices.

 

It's been pointed out MANY times and by various sources that the study you link to here is ABSOLUTE CRAP.

They made a good number of totally inexcusable errors in order to achieve what clearly must have been their political objective. They could NOT have been that bad by accident.

I pointed to a few of them in response to Hays, who is responsible for promoting this crap above. But, you can find many others with a quick internet serarch.

For one, look at the charts on page 2 of the Anderson group study that is being referenced. There is a link to the study on your cite.

They clearly show a cost for home charging called "cost of chargers" that they add as a charge for EVERY 100 miles of charging. They show it as about 1/3 the total cost of electricity for home charging on their page 2.

BUT, you don't have to buy ANY home charging equipment every 100 miles. That is a GIGANTIC FALSE CHARGE.

Also, if you look into feedback on this study you can find that they used $2.80 as an average price of gas through the period they claimed to be analyzing (late 2022). But, there was NEVER a time in 2022 where average US gas price was that low.

Overall, they don't explain how they chose or sized a number of the important elements that they depict.

 

This site is what I am looking for. It goes from 2005 to 2020. If you notice the trend word upward from 2005 to 2016 when the economy was booming in China. Now, there are huge stress factors and China is no longer has 8% plus GDP growth, which means the lower GDP growth is having somewhat of an impact and suggests the car market is now somewhat saturated like here. Another thing in China, no sudch thing as auto finance. It is payment cash on the barrel for these cars.

Funny story, in 2012, went to a car dealership with my inlaws for them to purchase a vehicle. The maximum number of cars on the lot is 8 and that is a big car lot. What they order is customer specific and you will get the vehicle in about two or three months. But you pay upfront and you really, really, really, really need to read that contract. But it was interesting. Then I talked to the manager, and to my suprise, spoke English pretty well. He was shocked when I told them that our car dealerships had hundreds of cars of all makes and models, and sometimes with more than one type of car manufacturer.