A Third Party Presidential Bid in 2024?

The 2024 Presidential Alternative Many Voters Will Want
Joe Lieberman, CNN




When Ralph Nader ran for president in 2000, he offered a simple rationale for a bid that would ultimately help “spoil” the... Read More

 

Any 3rd Party Candidacy in 2024 would be completely idiotuc and a fool's errand...
Lieberman is is off his rocker...
In the case of a party like "No Labels", it would invariably draw more votes away from the Dem. Nominee and help the GOP Candidate...

 

Do not underestimate the number of traditionally Republican voters who cannot abide Trump.

 

Indeed

 

Honestly, I’m for and always have been for a third party running just to upset the balance of power between the big 2 parties.

 

yes....... and it would be healthier to get a way from the pronounced binary system.

 

I know too many people who do not really like Trump but the limit of their criticism is that they will say “ I wish he did not say that”. This was very profound back when Trump crapped on John McCain’s military service. I immediately dropped my support for Trump. Those who just mumble “ I wish he didn’t say that” do nothing to change Trump’s behavior in fact they just reinforce it.

 

Multiple parties function better in a parliament type system.

 

You are alive!

 

With proportional representation. Single member districts incentivize a two party system.

 

I think a moderate third party has a chance. Biden is awful. People don't want Harris. Newsome is just another very wealthy, elitist, progressive liberal. Trump cannot win, in my opinion. So I would certainly consider a moderate third party.

 

A 3rd party has no chance to ever get to 270 electoral votes anytime in the forseeable future- not enough states close enough for a 3rd party to win

So, the best a 3rd party could do is prevent anyone to get to 270 which would mean that the GOP would win

A Third party needs to start winning house seats to get some leverage first

 

Defeatist


RePublocrats + Wall St. 2 parties as good as one

Does your vote really count?​

I so regret so many don't, "get it".
But, as a boomer, I trust I will be
dead. Mortified.
As the planet dies.
NO Windmills
Require Solar - Electric roofs
etc.
+ whatnots.

I Like Hydrogen and
solar electric energy.
Renewable and not enslaved to
energy brokers,
Still waiting for my Enron , Ken Lay, refund.


Moi

Who Needs More Than 2 Parties
When 1 is as good as 2?
​

 

No third party stands a chance in hell of winning the Presidency. Ever. The only thing a third party can accomplish it take votes away from the other two parties....

 

Exactly, dh...
A 3rd Party Vote = A WASTED Vote...

 

Of course. I'm simply buried in work, 72 Hour workweeks.

Bootstraps and all that jazz.

Free enterprise lives

 

Regardless of where you stand in the political spectrum, historical fact is that a third Party that is even remotely viable and garnered some EVs (1912, 1924, 1948, 1968 ) has produced some very unpredictable results in the overall EV breakdown. Yes, 1948 and 1968 focused on two particularly disgusting racists who hailed from the South and who captured circa 40 EV and that was that. However, in 1968 Wallace's despicably racist run led to wild razor thin wins for Nixon in a number of battleground states; Nixon won by +0.70% in the NPV but secured 303 EV.

If Trump bolts and goes third party, then Biden wins by +25% nationally.

If Trump is nominated a third time ala William Jennings Bryan (1896, 1900, 1908 ) and a third Party goes for it as a result, then the Opposition party, in this case, the Democratic Party, wins.

Time to stock up on lots of popcorn and rootbeer for 2024.

 

First, how old is Joe Lieberman? He ran for VP at a reasonable age in 2000 which was over 22 years ago. A quick Google search finds that he’s 81. Do we really need another old man in the race?

I imagine that some Democrats would be dead set against Lieberman because he would pull more votes from their candidate. The Democrats are all for Trump running as a third party candidate because that would lock up the election for them. They could run a mop and bucket and still win. They’ve already effectively done that with Biden and Fetterman.

 

There is no indication that Lieberman intends to run himself.

 

I have the feeling that root beer and popcorn will not be needed because the 2024 election will not be very entertaining. It will be more like a tragedy. With Biden and Trump as the nominees, Biden will win again despite the fact that he’s senile, unpopular, corrupt and a proxy dictator, with his executive orders, executed for those who control him.

The Trump brand is so toxic that it can never be re-elected. The Trump campaign will be like one of his TV shows with lots of insults and nothing accomplished.

I wish that we could have another Republican nominee, but it is probably not to be.

 

Cleveland - Blaine 1884
Harrison - Cleveland 1888
Cleveland - Harrison 1892

McKinley - Bryan 1896
McKinley - Bryan 1900
Taft- Bryan 1908

FDR - Dewey 1944
Truman - Dewey 1948

Eisenhower - Stevenson 1952
Eisenhower - Stevenson 1956

Kennedy - Nixon 1960
Nixon - Humphrey 1968
Nixon - McGovern 1972

Trump - Clinton 2016
Biden - Trump 2020
Likely: Biden - Trump 2024

So, as of 2024 it will have been 52 years since a person had been nominated a third time and should it be Biden vs Trump then that would be the fourth time overall in our Republic's history where 2 major party nominees dueled it out 2 times in a row. Trump is likely hoping for 1884-1892 redux. Ain't gonna happen.

 

Disgree. If Trump is the GOP candidate Dems who might be wavering will swallow their doubts & vote Biden. That will also be true of some independents. Add to that the response to GOP attacks on abortion rights, LGBTQI people, book bannings etc. and there will be strong motivations to stick wiht the party.

I'm not convinced the GOP can manage that. Trump may be the most popular candidate, but he is very divisive and his post-2020 election peformance will not have helped.

I don't think this hurts the Dems more than the GOP.

 

You will need a different electoral system to achieve that. At Presidential level third parties are meaningless. At Congressional level both the House and the Senate are just too small.

The odds of anyone outside a major party winning a Senate seat is low. It does happen, but never more than one or two at a time, generally in smaller states. House electorates are big, which makes it hard for smaller parties to win. Additionally, you use a First Past the Post system in those seats, which adds to the difficulty for third parties.

If you really want to change things, lobby for changes to the system. If minor parties can get a decent foothold in state legislatures & Congress there is a hope for change. If not you are stuck with the binary system.

 

They do, but there is variation within that model. Smaller electorates and different voting methods can ameliorate that to some extent. Congressionsl districts average 750,000 voters and use First Past the Post (1PP), which is a 'worst of all worlds' scenario.

In the UK electorates have on average less than 100,000 people. Even with 1PP about 100 of their 650 seats are held by minor parties & independents. There have been a number of times over the past century when they have held the balance of power and that is a real possibility at the next election.

The Australian lower house has larger electorates than the UK (about 150,000 each outside Tasmania) but has an 'instant runoff' system (we call it preferential voting). There have been multiple parties involved in government in Australia since Federation. The system stablized somewhat after WW2, but still involved a conservative coalition of two parties. In recent years a Greens party and a growing number of moderate conservative independents have taken 10% of the seats and held the balance of power Federally and in several states.

There are ways to make electorate based systems more representitive.

 

History does not matter here; the votes in the primaries do. I agree that Trump will not pull an 1892 Grover Cleveland. His brand is already toxic, and the Democrats will keep indicting him. Since most voters don’t follow the news very much, all it will take will be a continual drum beat of indictments. Even if the charges are totally bogus, it will take many months, if not years to dismiss them. All the low information voters will need to hear is that Trump has multiple indictments against him. They will conclude that Trump is a crook and vote for alternative, not matter who it is. That's what happen in 2020.

The question is will Joe Biden survive his primaries? He’s too frail and confused to campaign very much so it will be a from the White House instead of his basement. When was the last time an incumbent presidential candidate announced his re-election bid on film or video tape? Biden does not have the mental capacity to do it live.

Maybe the press will "discover" the Hunter Biden scandal, and that will be the way they ease Biden out. Or perhaps, Biden will withdraw for health reasons, which would be truth. Either way that will be the only way that there will not be another Biden - Trump matchup. The Trump cultists will carry him through the primaries. In their own way, Trump primary supporters are also low information voters.