Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

Exactly my thoughts.

 

Putin should fire his comedy writers.
Macron promises Zelensky more light tanks and armoured ...

France 24
https://www.france24.com › France 24 › Europe
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...o-meet-german-leaders-discuss-arms-deliveries


France uncovers a vast Russian disinformation campaign ...

The Economist
https://www.economist.com › europe › 2024/02/12 › f...
2 hours ago — “Portal Kombat” also targets Germany and Poland. French President Macron meets Polish Prime Minister Tusk in Paris, France image: EPA.
https://www.economist.com/europe/20...ast-russian-disinformation-campaign-in-europe

 

The Tsar-Train 20 miles long
Russia Building 20-Mile-Long 'Tsar Train' Barrier in Eastern Ukraine: ISW (msn.com)

 

....what's really happened is a train broke down which they can't move so all the other trains behind got blocked....

 

this is what Prighozhin's organisation was all about wasn't it...he ran loads of them all paid for by Rus State..?

 

The big news is the move toward using Russian assets to support Ukraine.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that elements of Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are training Russian drone operators at the Shayrat Air Base in Syria.
• The Russian State Duma is considering a bill to restrict actors that the Russian government designates as “undesirable” from entering Russia, likely as part of ongoing efforts to censor opposition media outlets and dismantle ties between Russia and foreign and international non-governmental organizations.
• Boris Nadezhdin, the only openly anti-war Russian presidential candidate, filed two lawsuits in the Russian Supreme Court challenging the Russian Central Election Commission’s (CEC) refusal to register him as a candidate as the Kremlin continues efforts to suppress popular opposition while trying to preserve the veneer of legitimacy of Russian presidential elections.
• The European Union (EU) is beginning to take concrete steps towards possibly using frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk and Kreminna.
• South Korean news outlet Yonhap News Agency reported on February 12 that North Korea has developed 240mm guided multiple rocket launcher system (MLRS) mortar that North Korea may export to Russia.
• Russian authorities continue to use youth engagement programs to Russify Ukrainian youth. . . . .

Ukraine continues to expand its domestic drone production capabilities. Ukrainian Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated on February 12 that Ukraine will produce thousands of long-range drones in 2024, including various loitering munitions with a maximum range of 300-1,000 kilometers (about 185-620 miles).[53] Fedorov also reported that Ukraine intends to produce over one million first-person view (FPV) drones in 2024 and that Ukraine delivered 50 times more drones in December 2023 than in all of 2022. Fedorov stated that the Ukrainian government is “rapidly deregulating the drone market” and increasing its funding to manufacture Ukrainian drones.[54] Fedorov also stated that many Ukrainian drone companies will have at least 50 percent of their components produced domestically by the end of 2024.

German Chief of Defense General Carsten Breuer stated on February 11 that Germany will provide 100 million euros (about $108 million) worth of additional military equipment to Ukraine.[55] German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall also began building a new factory in Lüneburg Heath in Lower Saxony to increase Germany’s artillery shell production capabilities to strengthen arms provisions to Ukraine and maintain Germany’s artillery ammunition stocks.[56] Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger stated that the new facility, once operational, will be able to produce 200,000 artillery shells per year and that Rheinmetall will deliver “several hundred thousand shells” to Ukraine in 2024.[57] This new Rheinmetall factory will reportedly become operational in 2025.[58] . . . .

 

The Russians are trying out their new missile.

• 
  Russia fires Zircon hypersonic missile for 1st time, Ukraine says

 

Prighozhin's organisation was clearly better at it than what took over after Prigh's murder.

 

There are lots of uncertainties and unknowns now.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2024

Click here to read the full report
Key Takeaways:

• The US Senate passed a supplemental appropriations bill that would provide roughly $60 billion of security assistance to Ukraine, the vast majority of which would go to US companies and personnel.
• Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces are attempting to restore maneuver to the battlefield through Soviet deep battle theory but are struggling with implementing Soviet deep battle so far due to current Ukrainian capabilities.
• The current Ukrainian battlefield capabilities that are denying Russian forces the ability to restore maneuver to the battlefield on Russian terms largely depend on the provision of Western military assistance in key systems, many of which only the US can provide at scale.
• Ukrainian forces will not be able to retain these advantages and deny Russian forces the ability to restore maneuver to the battlefield on Russian terms without further assistance from the United States and its partner countries in the near and medium term.
• Russian sources are purposefully exaggerating Ukrainian casualties in a Russian strike near Selydove, Donetsk Oblast on February 13.
• The Kremlin appears to be asserting the right to enforce Russian Federation law on officials of governments in NATO member states over actions taken in the performance of their official duties within the territories of their own countries.
• US sanctions are reportedly constraining Russian efforts to skirt the G7 oil cap amid continued indications that India may be rethinking its growing position as a customer of Russian oil.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
• The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank stated on February 12 that Russia is likely able to sustain its current rate of vehicle losses for at least two to three years by producing new vehicles and reactivating vehicles from storage.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to solidify control of occupied Ukraine through institutionalizing social benefits and services. . . . .

Ukraine continues efforts to domestically produce drones. Ukrainian Prime Minster Denys Shmyhal stated on February 13 that Ukraine has about 200 private drone production companies.[68] Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated on February 12 that Ukraine allocated about $2.5 million in grants to military tech startups in 2023 and that Ukraine is set to increase this amount by tenfold in 2024.[69]

Ukraine reportedly created a nationwide electronic warfare (EW) system that can disrupt Russian drones’ satellite navigation.[70] The “Pokrova” system reportedly jams navigation systems, like the Russian GLONASS, with “spoofing,” causing the drones to relay an incorrect location. Ukrainian forces have reportedly used spoofing to down Russian drones at a short range, but Pokrova works on a larger scale. Forbes stated that Ukrainian forces may already be using Pokrova to down Russian Shahed drones.[71] . . . .

 

Maginot Line train…… ? ? ?

 

I see that Wagner is playing music in Africa these days….

 

A defended Maginot Line would probably have been a tough obstacle for an army to get through if any army had bothered to try.

The Russian High command should Google: Maginot Line failure

Or they could just drop a 500 pound bomb on one of their rail cars and see what happens.

 

Much safer for Wagner in Africa than in Ukraine -- or Russia these days.

 

Russian weapons system frequently have serious design flaws.

"Supersonic missiles can be intercepted by shipboard defenses such as the US Navy's SeaRAM gun/missile system.

In addition, when the Zircon is launched, a rocket boosts it to high altitude and supersonic speed, which is necessary for the Zircon's scramjet engine to kick in and reach hypersonic velocity. The disadvantage is that unlike supersonic anti-ship missiles that can skim just above the water to avoid radar detection, the Zircon will have to stay at an altitude of about 12 miles until it gets relatively close to the target. Flying higher for longer makes it more visible to radar."


Putin's 'invincible' missile has a very common problem

Yahoo News Canada
https://ca.news.yahoo.com › putins-invincible-missile-...
Feb 21, 2023 — The disadvantage is that unlike supersonic anti-ship missiles that can skim just above the water to avoid radar detection, the Zircon will have ...
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/putins-invincible-missile-very-common-224700287.html

 

yeah.....so this is an Admiral Gorshkov class Frigate.....same class Frigate as the one in the link...


nothing special been around a while....so this class of Frigate carries the Kalibr and Oniks missiles and is launched from the 3S13M VLS launch tube...again nowt special

but.....don't you find it juuuuuust a little bit coincidental that
1) this "Zircon" missile carries a 660lb warhead and has exactly same dimensions as a Kalibr and Oniks missile which incidentally have a 660lb warhead
2) exactly the same launch characteristics as the Oniks

Oniks launch profile


"Zircon" launch profile


the missile in both cases is boosted from the tube at which point lateral thrusters deploy to flatten the trajectory to allow the ramjet to kick-in and then and increase in altitude at which point it can go into a ballistic arc where it should reach higher speeds due to the thinner atmosphere but as soon as it gets into thicker air the speed drastically reduces....

3) India purchased the Oniks from Russia but wanted it to have a higher speed and longer range. Which they did and now its called BrahMos.....a 28 foot long missile with a 2 ft diameter carrying a 660lb warhead - exactly the dimension of the 3S13M VLS launch tube....

BrahMos launch profile....

In both cases the you can see nose vectoring cap is blown off...

So I'm assuming that the Russian Zircon is just the Indian version....the BrahMos.... but with better press coverage and a sexier name....????

 

The Germans just went around the Maginot Line as you of course know. I am sure that my cousins in Ukraine are at least as smart as the Germans.

 

A party I once proudly called my own has become the party of useful idiots. Ronald Reagan would be appalled.

George F. Will
Republicans, once a noble party, fall to ignoble acts on Ukraine aid

In its 170 years, the Republican Party has had occasions of nobility. In its infancy, it redefined the Union while preserving it. Ten decades later, larger percentages of House and Senate Republicans than of House and Senate Democrats voted for the nation-transforming 1964 Civil Rights Act and the 1965 Voting Rights Act.

Today, however, substantial numbers of insubstantial congressional Republicans are contemplating an ignoble act whose imprudence exceeds even its pettiness. These Republicans could, by denying Ukraine the material means of resistance, hand Russian President Vladimir Putin a victory that might be just the beginning of Putin’s war for the restoration of “Greater Russia.”

Putin, who has made two wagers, quickly lost the first when he failed to quickly overrun Ukraine. He might, however, win his second wager: that the United States will live down to his disdain for what he considers its decadence. Surely his contempt is partly a response to former president Donald Trump’s political durability, which Putin understands is evidence of America’s retreat from seriousness. . . .

 

The Russians are losing their fleet.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 14, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces successfully sank another Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) landing ship in the Black Sea off the southern coast of occupied Crimea on the night of February 13 to 14.
• Ukraine reportedly continues efforts to offset Russian advantages in manpower and materiel by using more advanced systems and equipment, although continued delays in Western security assistance will undermine these efforts.
• Russia is similarly pursuing battlefield advantages through technological innovation despite its focus on generating manpower and materiel in greater mass than Ukraine.
• Russian authorities may be generating enough new forces to sustain losses generated by the current tempo of their offensive operations in Ukraine through 2025.
• The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (VLA) stated that the Russian military’s ongoing restructuring and expansion effort aims to intensify Russian military posturing against Finland and the wider NATO alliance.
• The Kremlin is conducting information operations against Moldova very similar to those that the Kremlin used before its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, likely to set conditions to justify possible future Russian escalation against Moldova.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenburg stated on February 14 that NATO does not see any immediate threat of military attacks on a NATO member but noted that there is a “constant risk” of hybrid attacks.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov denied recent Western reports that Russia recently proposed freezing the conflict in Ukraine.
• Russia reportedly is developing a space-based anti-satellite weapon.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Marinka, and Krynky amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact on February 14.
• Russia continues efforts to expand its defense industrial base (DIB).
• Russian authorities continue efforts to militarize and culturally indoctrinate youth and students in occupied Ukraine into Russian identity and ideology. . . .

Ukraine continues to expand domestic weapons and equipment production. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havrylyuk stated on February 14 that Ukrainian manufacturers are working to modernize and produce “a considerable line” of weapons and equipment including anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), grenade launcher ammunition, and systems to conceal air defenses.[92]

Ukraine continues to expand measures for monitoring and tracking the use of international military aid. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on February 14 that the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers approved a new procedure for monitoring and regulating the use of international military aid that will regulate government bodies interacting, receiving, transferring and accounting for the provision of international military assistance.[93] Ukrainian outlet Ukrinform reported on February 14 that Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Yuriy Dzhyhyr met with US embassy representatives to discuss reforming the Ukrainian audit system and the creation of a Ukrainian MoD auditing committee.[94] Dzhyhyr and US officials also discussed joint inspections of weapons storage facilities.

Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair announced on February 14 that Canada will allocate 60 million Canadian dollars (about $44 million) to Ukraine as part of the Ukraine Defense Contract Group (UDCG) Air Force Capability Coalition for the purchase of spare parts, weapons, avionics, and ammunition for F-16 aircraft.[95] . . . .

 

...I don't understand what's becoming of America....I really don't.....

 

Agreed.

 

History reveals countless examples of short sighted stupidity from the leaders and supporters of both parties . Isolationism after WW I was a political poison pill that nearly all Republicans eagerly swallowed. But for the popularity of General Eisenhower the GOP would have been finished as a viable political party in the US.

Another world war triggered by short sighted “America First isolationist delusions will knock the Republicans back to where they were on 12/8/41, and Ike is gone.

“Under Nye’s influence, [Senator Gerald P. Nye (R-ND), who chaired a Senate investigation into the munitions industry] Congress passed Neutrality Acts in the 1930s to stop the export of arms and loans to any belligerent nations.

The outbreak of the Second World War in Europe in September 1939 changed few minds in the United States. On the contrary, many Americans wanted to remain neutral, even as Adolf Hitler carved up Poland and took aim at the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Britain. At the start of 1940, a Gallup poll of leading American writers was asked if America should declare war on Nazi Germany: 94 percent answered no. In September 1940, a group of Yale Law School students (including former President Gerald R. Ford, then in his third year), founded the America First Committee, which immediately enrolled 800,000 dues paying members.”
POLITICO, WASHINGTON AND THE WORLD, How the GOP Embraced the World—And Then Turned Away, Decades ago, Dwight Eisenhower defeated the isolationist faction of the Republican Party. Now, Trump is toppling his legacy., By WILLIAM I. HITCHCOCK July 13, 2018.

Anyone who really believes in placing the interests of the USA first should want Ukraine to defeat Russian aggression ASAP, and provide their exceptionally competent military with whatever it takes to accomplish that objective.

 

That could've went bad in numerous ways...for Ukraine and RuZzia.

 

The struggle continues.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces are conducting a tactical turning movement through Avdiika likely to create conditions that would force Ukrainian troops to withdraw from their positions in the settlement. Ukrainian forces have yet to fully withdraw from the settlement and continue to prevent Russian forces from making gains that are more significant than the current incremental Russian advances.
• The Russian offensive effort to capture Avdiivka underscores the Russian military’s inability to conduct a successful operational envelopment or encirclement in Ukraine.
• The potential Russian capture of Avdiivka would not be operationally significant and would likely only offer the Kremlin immediate informational and political victories.
• The Russian command reportedly reorganized the command structures of the Russian grouping of forces in southern Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted a relatively larger series of missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of February 14 to 15.
• Ukrainian security forces reportedly conducted a successful drone strike against an oil depot in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to elaborate on an amorphous ideology for Russia to support geopolitical confrontation with the West by attempting to portray Russia as the leader of an international anti-Nazi movement.
• Putin intentionally misrepresented a statement from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in an attempt to promote pseudo-history aimed at denying Ukrainian statehood.
• Russian sources claimed that the Russian military officially removed Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov and replaced him with the BSF’s Chief of Staff Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk.
• Select members of the US-led coalition the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (also known as the Ramstein format) formally launched an air defense coalition and agreed to form a drone coalition and demining coalition to support Ukraine following the group’s 19th meeting in Brussels on February 14.
• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced that NATO and Ukraine will create a joint analysis, training, and education center in Poland following the meetings of NATO Defense Ministers in Brussels on February 15.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Uralvagonzavod plant in Sverdlovsk Oblast, one of Russia’s largest tank producers, on February 15 to promote Russian efforts to expand Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB).
• Head of Ukraine’s nuclear operating enterprise Energoatom Petro Kotin stated that the situation at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is becoming more dangerous due to Russian activity near and at the plant. . . .

 

Ukraine has given the rest of Europe time to finally wake up.

“Macron has pushed France's defence industry to switch to "war economy" mode and ramp up production.”
FRANCE 24, France's Macron, Ukraine's Zelensky to sign bilateral security agreement on Friday,
Issued on: 15/02/2024 - 10:06.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-ne...al-security-agreement-on-friday-élysée-palace