The likelihood of Ron Paul coming in 3rd in Iowa...

Newest polls show a very close battle for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Romney barely edging out Paul, with Paul barely edging out Santorum. Paul has said that he expects to win 1st or 2nd, but highly doubts he would come in 3rd. Will Santorum's recent surge be enough to bump Paul back to 3rd place? What will that mean for Paul's chances going forward?

 

I guess we will have to wait and see.

I don't see how conservatives can vote for Santorum or Romney - but hey, whatever. Paul coming in 3rd in Iowa won't be a good thing.

 

hard to believe someone can be as dumb as Santorum and still have a pulse...

 

The PPP which is the most reliable has Ron Paul in 1st. The other polls didn't poll democrats and (i believe) independents, just Republicans, and Iowa is an open caucus. If everyone supporting Ron Paul shows up to vote Ron Paul will take Iowa.

 

The most accurate polls - those that include Democrats and Independents - show Ron Paul in a slim first place. With that knowledge, it's likely that Romney would be the one bumped to third, not Ron Paul.

Ron Paul has an extremely loyal and motivated base. They'll be showing up tomorrow, no questions asked. Santorum and especially Romney supporters aren't nearly as loyal (though Santorum's might be just because of his recent boost), so there's reason to believe that Romney may be the one in trouble.

At this point, anything is possible among the top-tier. I expect Ron Paul to win with Romney in second and Santorum in third, though it's way too close to call at this point.

Santorum needs a top 3 finish to stay alive. Ron Paul needs a top 2 finish to stay alive. Newt Gingrich needs a top 2 in Iowa or a win in South Carolina to stay alive. Michele Bachmann needs a top 2 in Iowa or a win in South Carolina to stay alive. Jon Huntsman needs a New Hampshire win to stay alive. Rick Perry needs a top 3 in Iowa or New Hampshire or a win in South Carolina to stay alive.

For a lot of these candidates, South Carolina will be key. Gingrich, Bachmann and Perry will make their last stands there (with Gingrich possibly hanging around until Florida for a final chance). Ron Paul needs success in Iowa and New Hampshire to hopefully gain momentum. Huntsman needs a top 2 in New Hampshire or he's done.

I see Bachmann dropping out after Iowa and Perry dropping out after South Carolina. I see Huntsman dropping out after New Hampshire if he finishes poorly. Gingrich will drop out after Florida (unless he does well there or in SC). Santorum will likely fight to be the anti-Romney candidate, while Ron Paul continues throughout the entire election (regardless of how well he does).

We'll see.

 

Good observations. Thank you for contributing.

 

Win ..place or show..

It doesn't matter..
But should Paul finish 3rd it would be a disaster in the making..and Paul folks should be scared.

Romney could finish 3 or even 4th and it wouldn't be that bad.
Expectations with Paul and 4 Religious votes against him in an away game .

Perry and Newt are his real problems going forward.

Newt is really ending the positive spin now.
He even suggested tonight that PALIN would be a welcome part of HIS administration.

Talk about pandering.
You talk about Romney being Slick..Newt Gingrich is super slick.
And he can look you in the face without batting an eye.

The establishment party will CRUSH him... not Romney.

The only pain would be if Gingrich should beat Romney by a large margin.
Now Newt says he is for Corn..Palin and against negativity.

 

Ron Paul needs a 2nd place or better. A 1st place going into New Hampshire would be huge and I still believe he's going to do that. He gets 1st in Iowa, 2nd in New Hampshire (or maybe first with an effective ad campaign, he's rising in New Hampshire now) which will bring us to South Carolina where Romney will crash and burn.

I think after some of the other candidates have to drop out Ron Paul is going to start doing better. The debates should be interesting with fewer candidates because the media will be forced to give him more speaking time and everytime Ron Paul speaks in a debate his numbers rise which is why Fox tried ignoring him in the last one.

Iowa is huge, though.

People that say Iowa doesn't matter are delusional.

 

I agree about Iowa. If Ron Paul wins it, it will help him greatly in New Hampshire and the other states. If he ends up getting 3rd though, expect him to start falling in the polls. His loyalists will still be there, but the fickle independents will go elsewhere.

 

If he comes in third, losing by a couple percentage points, it isn't that bad. If he loses by a big margin he's completely toast.

 

Gotta agree with you.

 

The race has tightened up a bit in the past week (why couldn't the caucus have been held on Christmas? ) But RP is still right at the front of the pack. The DMR poll is being used to suggest he's "collapsing," at least if you divide it up day by day (from a weirdly high 29% to a weirdly low 16%), but polls released on Sunday are very good for him. The PPP has him slightly ahead and, if you divide that poll up day, it looks like he rose over the weekend. It says he was three points ahead of Rick and Willard on Sunday. The Insider Advantage poll released later that day has him and Willard less then 1/3rd of a point from each other with Rick 4 and 1/2 points behind.

Ron Paul's advantages are passion, organization, GOTV, the caucus format, and the fact that independents and Democrats don't have an Obama to go vote for this time. Ron Paul has also tended to outperform polls. In 2008, the RCP average had him at 7.3%, but he got 9.9%. Willard, by comparison, had 26.7% at RCP but got 25.2%.

His biggest danger, probably, is Sanitorium sucking up more of his soft support than that of Willard.

I think this is already a two-man race, though, between Paul and Romney. No one else has a shot at this point. Santorum isn't going to go anywhere past Iowa; he has no support or organization elsewhere, and he'll flame out even more spectacularly than the others once his record as a big gub'mint liberal with a family values sticker on his lapel becomes known.

Newt? The fact is no Republican since Goldwater has ever won the nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. Newt will be lucky to come in a close fourth in Iowa and he's in third and falling in NH. By the time it gets to SC, he'll already be forgotten. Paul, on the other, very likely could win Iowa. If he does that he'll very likely get a strong second in NH, based on where he is in the polls now. That makes him the only candidate, other than Willard, with any likelihood of coming in either first or second in both early states. At that point, it's clearly a two-man Paul/Romney race for anyone who's not an anti-Paulite with his head in the sand. Paul's the only one, other than Willard, with a visible path to victory past NH. He is the anti-Romney; it's either him or it's nobody.

 

There are six possibilities in the order of the final Iowa three:

1. Ron, Willard, Rick. Okay for Romney and also very good for Paul. This is situation where Paul can most easily paint it as a Paul/Romney race. Santorum will be done.

2. Ron, Rick, Willard. This is probably the worst possibility for Romney, who of course will be damaged from a third place finish. Paul will benefit from that going into NH. However, on the whole, it could be more problematic for Paul in that evangelical types might still go for Santorum for a little while, continuing to divide the anti-Romney base and grabbing attention and possibly votes from Paul for a time.

3. Rick, Ron, Willard. If Ron doesn't get first, this is best situation for him. He might be able to get enough traction from a strong second in NH, Willard's damage from a third place finish, and the subsequent flame-out of Santorum (once his record's vetted) to pull it off. But the road's far steeper.

4. Willard, Ron, Rick. Santorum will be done. Ron's only "Hail Mary" chance here is to come in a clear second in NH and hope that all the anti-Romney voters then realize he's their last hope and flock to him.

5. Willard, Rick, Ron. I doubt Ron Paul can win if this happens. Miracles happen, but 99 to 1, he'll be blocked out and, even if he does get second in NH, the anti-Romney challenger's will still be all split up going into SC. As they flail, Willard, two victories under his belt, runs away with. I have a drink and try to ignore politics for the next umpteen years.

6. Rick, Willard, Ron. The same as above but better for the media, who will get to keep the "horse race" narrative for a little longer.

 

This is Paul's State to lose. He's got the enthusiasm and organization, which equals turnout. His people will show up at the caucus and actually be willing to convince others to vote for him. His support is also coming from an area that the pollsters aren't looking at. For all these reasons, he'll finish stronger than his polling suggests.

Romney is matching him in the polls, but his support is weak. This is because nobody actually likes Romney, they're just settling for him. He'll finish weaker than the polling suggests.

Santorum will likely do well around Sioux City, but that's about it. Not well enough to carry him through NH.

 

Santorum is - IMO - a highly creepy politician who definitely seems to be a tad intellectually challenged.

He also seems rather xenophobic and is dying to ram his religious fundamental beliefs down everyone's throats.

I think he would be a hideous POTUS.

I want Ron Paul to win big time.

But if it's between Santorum and Romney - I would take the latter in a split-second.

 

Romney will win. Paul possibly second but will tank in new Hampshire to 4th place at best.

 

No. Santorum's surge will steal votes from Romney if anything.

 

With the all day negativity from Newt will people switch back to him ?

He is counting on all his free press to get him back.

Paul and Romney have the ground game in place.

After Florida the race moves WEST into Romney country.Many say he gave up
last time and didn't give states like MN a chance.
Romney carried this state last time..and WOULD over Obama this time..
Along with WS. Obama cannot count on them this time with Romney as the guy.

I see the church vote holding Romney back tonight as well.In the WALL MAPS after look where the church votes put Santorum over the top.
Paul is 2nd.

 

I do not see that.
Romney should come out in 1st..But Paul is positioned to take 2nd.

Only if Iran scares more people out of the Paul independent camp will he fall to 4th.

 

I agree....

 

He's currently in 3rd.... Santorum 1st, Romney 2nd. Still a long way to go

 

93% of precincts reporting...

1) Santorum 25%
2) Romney 25%
3) Paul 21%

Not good for Paul...

 

I am FAR more concerned that Santorum is first then anything else.

I used to live in Iowa....I had no idea they were THIS politically backwards.

 

The precincts that havnt reported could push paul up there...

 

I'm not concerned about Santorum. He has no organization and no fund raising going into NH.
The only 2 candidates that can gain real traction going forward are Romney and Paul, and Newt seems very excited about taking out Romney.