2018 SEN Midterms - all 100 seats (33+ races), Part I

As written in my thead about the 2018 HOR races, I would like to again compliment the people who publish THE GREEN PAPERS. They really do excellent work at searching for an organizing information pertaining to US-elections and their site is well structured.

Similar to what I did with all 435 HOR races, I have also created an extensive EXCEL document about all 100 Senate seats, 1/3 of which are up for grabs in 2018.

There are lots of advantages to doing it this way, at least until the primaries are over with. I think that people of all ideological stripes will be thankful for this thread and please, feel free to click on and use the information.

Ok, so what is in the table and what is not at current? Here we go:




-Each state (abbreviation under "Senate-Class", first column) is hyperlinked to the Green Papers page that deals specifically with all 2018 races and is tagged to start with the SEN races.

-The 33 scheduled Class 1 races are highlighted in yellow across the respective rows. The other Senators (Class 2 and Class 3) are not highlighted, but rather, in italics. I will come back to this point later.

-Each seat-name (first column) is color coded according to the party of the current seat-holder.

-The background for both seats for each state (also first column) is colored according to the winner of that state in the 2016 presidential election. This is a feature in the SEN excel document that is not in the HOR excel document and for that very reason I screenshotted starting at MT and ending in NH; MT is a state that Pres. Trump won (and so the background is red), but has one D-Senator and one R-Senator and as history will have it, the D-Senator is up for re-election in 2018. Conversely, NV is a state that Hillary Clinton won (and so the background is blue), but has one R-Senator and one D- Senator and as history will have it, the R-Senator is up for re-election in 2018. NE and NH, on the other hand, are states where the entire senatorial delegation is of the same party as the winner of those states in the 2016 GE, respectively.

-Each candidate who has his/her own campaign website is also hyperlinked (second column).

-The year in which that senator is next up for election is in the third column. Of course, excluding AL-Spec (which will then become a 2020 race afterwards), the three possible dates right now are: 2018, 2020 and 2022.

-The year in which the Senator was first elected to that seat is listed in the fourth column.

-The type of election (Incumbent or Open) is listed in the fifth column. Currently, all 33 scheduled races for 2018 are INC races. And the one race still slated for 2017, in AL, is also currently an INC race.

-Afterwards, for Ds, Rs, Is, Ls and unaffiliateds, the NUMBER of candidates already declared for the primaries is recorded. The state link will also show whether they have already made an FEC financial filing, or not. This number has nothing to do with quality/electability of candidates nor is it a predictor of who will win. It simply shows where the candidate interest/action is as of this point in time.

-The final, comments column is helpful to see incumbent races where one of the two major parties has not fielded a candidate yet for the primaries. At this time, a small number of races are officially unopposed, but that is sure to change.

Here a map of the races to expect in 2017 and 2018:







Deliberately not color-coded red or blue. The map is only there to show where the contests will be held. Geographically, most of the mid-west, northeast and west-south-west will have contests. Half of the South will not have contests.

And while we are at it, here are the maps for Class 2 (2020) and Class 3 (2022):






This information is also in the second tab of the excel document linked to at the top of the OP. Here's a moving GIF of all three cycles:





Now, to the nuts-and-bolts. Currently, including the 2017-special in AL, here is the numeric summary of declared candidates:



No, your eyes are not deceiving you: for 34 races, at current, 188 individuals have declared themselves as candidates. Now, a boatful of them are from the upcoming AL-SEN-special, the primary for which will occur in 4 days and then those 18 primary candidates will be reduced to 2 who will go on to the General in December, but even discounting them, there are still 170 declared candidates for the primaries for 2018.

Unsurprising, as occurs every cycle, both Red and Blue teams are looking for what they perceive to be the weakest candidates on the other side. For instance, in California:



This is a good learning example for all of us, I would wager to say. Dianne Feinstein, Senior Senator from California, was first elected in 1992 in a special election and then won in 1994, 2000, 2006 and 2012, so this will be her 6th senatorial campaign. She has currently drawn 7 GOP challengers, 3 Democratic challengers, two official Independent challengers and 4 unaffiliated challengers making for a crowded field of 17 candidates for the Jungle Primary. But beware, precisely because of the nature of the Jungle primary, this many candidates is not necessarily good for a Republican challenger in a state that Hillary Clinton just won by +30% in 2016, because all 17 names will be on one ballot and the top-two vote getters will go on to the General Midterm Election, which means it could be just as likely that it may be a D-vs-D race instead of a D-vs-R race in the Fall of 2018. This has already happened in California more than once. It is also fair to note that Sen. Feinstein has set a massive NPV record for the entire county, in 2012, where she accrued almost 7.9 million raw votes and beat her Republican opponent by +25%. Also to note is that in the Jungle Primary of 2012, there were a whopping 24 candidates plus one write-in. So, the 17 candidates already declared is just the start. Now, Sen. Feinstein has just turned 84 years old, which justifiably brings up the question as to whether she may retire. Wait and see. Life is change and the Senate is never exactly the same from cycle to cycle.

Another good example of a crowded field but also of a far more endangered candidate is that of Dean Heller, Senior Senator from Nevada. See: first screenshot. Now, there are only 6 candidates in that field right now, but it's a normal primary process (not a Jungle Primary) and Heller is being primaried from the Right by Danny Tarkanian. Working for Tarkanian is the fact that he is more to the Right than Heller in a state where the Republicans there tend to be more Conservative. Working against Tarkanian is that he is verifiably a perennial GOP candidate for something and always loses: he already lost two Senate primaries in 2004 and 2010, lost the primary for NV SOS in 2006 and lost two HOR races, in 2012 and 2016. I am not writing that to disparage him, for I myself am a great fan of tenacity, but in politics, losing this often usually doesn't help. Heller is in deep trouble for the mixed-messaging he sent by first voting against the repeal of Obamacare and then suddenly for the repeal. In doing this, his didn't just anger one possible constituency, but rather, two and that in a state that likes Obamacare. He is also from a state that Hillary Clinton won, but her win was small. NV is also a state where polling has more often than not been somewhat more off to the Right (see: Reid vs. Angle, 2010). I am not even going to try to prognosticate any winners or losers in the GE, but I think it's healthy to point out that this primary system in NV is probably costlier than the Jungle system in California. Wait and see.

In ND, Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat in a deep red state, is up for re-election and at current, she is running unopposed. That is surely going to change and in no way reflects my opinion on the race. Surely this is going to become a marquee race to watch in 2018.

Joe Manchin, arguably the most Conservative Democrat in the Democratic Party, is up for re-election in West Virginia, a state that Pres. Trump won by over +40 points, making it the second most Conservative state in the partisan rankings, right after Wyoming. Manchin beat his last opponent in 2010, a Republican-wave year, by about 10 points. But this time he himself is getting primaried by two D opponents and 5 Rs are competing for the R nomination. Could be a very interesting race to watch in a state where Manchin is literally the last Democrat left standing, and that in one of only 6 states that stayed true to Jimmy Carter in 1980. Ahhh, life is change. If a good, civil conversation gets started up on this thread, I would be more than willing to discuss other key states. OH and PA come immediately to mind.

So, looking at the strategema for 2018, and first concentrating on the numeric strength of Republicans who have announced for office, this excel table is kind of a mirror image of the excel table for the HOR, where Ds are coming out of the woodwork to challenge Republicans. Right now, in 164 Republican HOR districts, there are now D challengers. In only 62 Democratics Districts are there R challengers. Of course, this may also change and change again.

Back to this table: why did I publish information on all 100 Senators and not just those officially up for election in 2018? I did it because you never know when a surprise is going to happen and virtually every cycle, someone whose seat was not planned for election according to the Class 1-2-3 set schedule either retires or dies or there is a massive scandal and that person resigns. John McCain, the Senior Sen. from Arizona, has brain cancer, but he is not the only one who has a major illness. Mazie Hirono of Hawaii also has cancer. Only, she is up for re-election (currently unopposed) while McCain is not. But I see a chance that one or two Senators from either Class 2 or Class 3 will exit the stage and therefore we could have more than 33 Senate elections in 2018. In fact, in the current Senate, 16 Senators were either appointed in an off year or elected in special election to replace a Senator who either retired or died. That's almost 1/5 of the current Senate.

Many more Democratic incumbents are up for re-election than Republicans, which means that the Ds will be playing more defense than offense this time around. However, if you look at the Class 2 schedule for 2020, it's exactly the opposite. What goes up, must come down.

And finally, a note about the stats concerning the Senate, found in TAB 4. Ted Kennedy was once a Lion of the Senate and he served for a very long time, but more Lions are appearing: 7 US Senators have now served more than 30 years and of them, as of January 2019, 3 will have served 40 years or more: Patrick Leahy (D-VT), first elected in 1974, Orrin Hatch (D-UT), first elected in 1976 and Thad Cochran (D-MS), first elected in 1978. Say what you might about favoring or not favoring term limits, but a Senator doesn't get elected 7 or 8 times if he's a dummy. And these older Senators - OF BOTH PARTIES - bring a sage wisdom to the august body that is needed in every legislature. Of those three Senate Lions, Hatch is up for re-election and 4 Democrats are vying for the nomination to face off against him in the General election in a state that, until 2016, was the most Conservative state in the partisan rankings.

Now, these numbers are going to change quite a bit, but I encourage you to go to the GREEN PAPERS links to see when the primaries will be, what type of primaries they will be, how many candidates are in the mix and maybe even follow the money via the FEC filings.

2018 may end up to be a very exciting mid-term cycle, in both houses of the US-Congress.

Hope this information was helpful.

-Stat

 

For the most part I still think it's too early to say much about these elections. Way too early. There are only a few states where I think we can already say something interesting is going to happen - ND, WV, MI, MO, maybe NV. ND because it is one of only two seats I would actually put money on switching at this point, it's one of the most conservstive states, the Democrat was fairly narrowly elected, and has been towing the party line rather than bucking it - in a Republican state, you can expect that seat to change hands. WV probably won't switch because Manchin is one of the last old conservative Democrats - he's conservative and likable enough to get by in a deep red state. MI will be interesting because it has Kid Rock in it, and there are early indicators that he might even have an edge (but regardless of outcome, that is going to be interesting). MO is the 2nd of two seats I already see changing hands - similarly, you have a Democrat in a deep red state who has towed the party line rather than bucking it. NV... Heller barely won his seat, and to be fair it was in a bad year for Republicans so I'd expect him to do a little better in an average year - but then NV appears to have become a bit more liberal in recent years. Iirc Trump didn't do well there. I see it being a close race there, and fairly likely to switch hands.

 

I concur with you and as I wrote on the HOR thread, this is just Part I - getting the nuts and bolts information out there. Pretty clearly explained in both OPs.

 

Mark me down as watching ths thread too then.

 

On August 11th, 2017, there were 188 declared candidates for the US-Senate Midterms in 2018. Today, August 14th, there are now 192 candidates declared:



Changes occured in: AZ, FL, ME and TX. In ME, a Libertarian has joined the fray.

In AZ and TX, Republican incumbents Jeff Flake Ted Cruz have both received yet another R challenger. Lots of word at the weekend of a major Democratic challenger about to enter the fray in AZ, but she has not officially declared yet.

In FL, it's becoming a crowded field with 9 candidates total and I think it is interesting/telling to note that Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson, who was elected in 2000, has until now built up a very large warchest of 4 million, double that of Ted Cruz in TX. I think that would pretty much dispel any rumors that Bill Nelson may be considering retiring - sure doesn't look like it. But it does look like he is expecting a very competitive dogfight in our nations 3rd most populous state. Often, the money really DOES tell a story, but not always.

Source.

 

I'll be watching this thread with interest. Thanks Statist!

 

On August 14th, there were 195 declared candidates for the US Senate. As of today, August 17th, there are 180 candidates for Senate. The reason for the numberic decrease is that the AL-SEN Primary is now over and so the candidates who lost are now out of the statistic.




There were therefore changes in AL, but also in FL, NE and ND. The races in NE and ND are no longer unopposed.
I am going to make a separate thread about FL.

Sources:

Green Papers 2017-08-015
Green Papers 2017-08-016
Green Papers 2017-08-017

 

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz... on last Thursday, there were 180 declared candidates for the US-Senate. As of today, August 21st, there are 181:



There was an addition in CT-SEN, Class 1.

Source.

A number of possible announcements in big marquee races are expected to happen in the near future, especially in AZ, but also in OH. Since OH went for President Trump by more than +8% last November, Republicans are wanting to unseat young Liberal Lion Sherrod Brown, if they can, so some big names may be enterering the fry. That being said, for now, it's looking like a redux Brown vs. State Treasurer Josh Mandel, who lost to Brown by 6 points in 2012. Wait and see. Mandel turns 40 in September, he is one of the youngest candidates out here. He was only 33 when he announced to run against Brown 6 years ago.

Remember, in politics a day can be like a year and one should expect the unexpected to happen....

-Stat

 

Still thinking that the Senate is going to stay close to 52-48 in favor of the GOP.

The Dems getting control seems like a tall order. I don't see them getting a net gain of +3.

It will probably stay where it is or maybe move a seat to an end result of 53-47, 52-48, or 51-49.

But, still in the control of the GOP.

 

As of August 21st, there were 181 declared candidates for the US-Senate. As of today, August 23rd, there are now 182:



There was a change in MA-SEN 1
Source
See: 22 Aug 2017

 

After Trump's UNCONSCIONABLE implosion in Phoenix, there seems to be an emerging narrative that supporting Trump is going to be more of an albatross (for GOP Senate candidates) than the party is willing to admit.

A handful of GOP Senate seats (previously thought to be "Safe (R)") as suddenly facing potential jeopardy.

 

As of August 23rd, there were 182 declared candidates for the US-Senate. As of today, August 25th, 2017, there are now 183:



There was a change in IN-SEN 1

Source (changes from 08/25 and 08/24)

 

As of Friday, August 25th, 2017, there were 183: declared candidates for the US- Senate.
Today, Thursday, August 31st, 2017, there are now 190.




Source (Changes from August 28th through August 31st)

There were changed in CA-SEN 1, KY-SEN 2 (for 2020) MI-SEN 1, NE-SEN 1, PA-SEN 1

 

As of Thursday, August 31st, 2017, there were 190 declared candidates for the US-Senate. As of today, Wednesday, Sepember 6th, 2017, there are now 195 declared candidates:



There were changed in: CO-SEN 2 (2020), MI-SEN 1 (lateral change, no numerical change) TN-SEN 1, WA-SEN 1

Source (see: the data for September 5th and September 1st)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.






Source (see: the data for September 5th and September 1st)

 

As of Wednesday, Sepember 6th, 2017, there were 195 declared candidates for the US-Senate. As of today, Wednesday, September 13th, 2017, there are now 198 declared candidates:



There were changes in CA-SEN 1, ME-SEN 1, WI-SEN 1

Source (see blog postings from 9/13, 9/12, 9/11, 9/8 and 9/7)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

 

Damn that was an intense read. Very good info though. I will make 2 comments about the 2 races you brought up.


Feinstein will run again because of her popularity in her district. I would be amazed if she serves more than 1/3 of her term though as she will allow Gerry Brown to appoint her successor with plenty of time for that person to build a resume and name recognition to run on in 2024.

I would love to see Manchin win in WV as it will give the parties a friendly pipeline to communicate. With the current partisan climate though and a deep red state I just dont see him winning. I have serious doubts he will even make it to the general at this point.


One final point, it will be interesting to see how the dem 2020 hopefuls go through the process. Are they going to concentrate on current races or position themselves for the presidential elections. Will the parties make a move to the center, or continue to only speak to the fringes? What races will Trump get involved in and how many primaries GOP senators will Trump back the opponent?

It's really going to be an interesting season.

 

That was an excellent posting and very thoughtful on top. Feinstein is, as with many very sage members of the Senate, simply getting up in years and at some time, it's just time to quit. People her age (also Orrin Hatch, for instance) are not always in the best of health. Both are older than John McCain, if I remember correctly.

Manchin connects well to W. Virginians because he is a truly Conservative Democrat, in a mold that West Viginians seem to like. The last time the prognosis looked not very rosy for him, he won by 10 points on election night. I suspect that he seat is safer than the stats may lead one to think.

Since the vast majority of presidential nominees have either come from the Senate or a Governor's mansion, vis-a-vis 2020, I would say, follow their patterns of behavior and of course, follow the money. It's a damned shame that the system is so convoluted that even before the 2018 mid-terms, a number of people are quite obviously already making plans for 2020. I personally find that perverse. Were we to have a good president in office, I would say that that pattern would be less, but hey, it is what it is.

And yes, I have stuck a helluva lot of work into both 2018 threads (SEN, HOR). It's worth it to do this, however. Knowledge is important.

Nice to hear from you. Thanks again for the thoughtful posting.

 

Do you think Bill Nelson is in good shape against Rick Scott next year in the FL senate race? Do the Floridian people like Nelson like WV likes Manchin?

 

Scott has been given a golden opportunity to hand out taxpayer largesse to FL voters following the destruction of IRMA. If he uses it wisely he can beat Nelson. On the other hand if he tries to use that funding for partisan purposes the way that Christie did in NJ he will do himself more harm than good.

FTR Scott is not known for making the wisest decisions and does tend towards partisanship so it is going to be entirely up to him as to how he governs,

 

As of Wednesday, September 13th, 2017, there were 198 declared candidates for the US-Senate. As of today, September 16th, 2017, there are now 201 declared candidates:



There were changes in: MI-SEN 1, NV-SEN 1, TN-SEN 1

Source (see postings for September 15th and 14th)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

 

On September 16th, 2017, there were 201 declared candidates for the US-Senate. Today, September 25th, 2017, there are now 205:



There were changes in: AL-SEN 2, AR-SEN 1 NJ-SEN 1, MI-SEN 1, WI-SEN 1

Source (all postings going back from September 25th to September 18th)

Actually, lots of stuff to comment on but no time right now to do it. Maybe later this week.

This number will automatically bump down to 204 after the AL-SEN 2 GOP runoff election on Friday, barring any other changes. An Independent has also entered the AL-SEN 2 race.

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

-Stat

 

On September 16th, 2017, there were 201 declared candidates for the US-Senate. Today, Friday, September 29th, 2017, there are now 208:



Yes, I backed up to September 16th again, in spite of a report on September 25th as well.

This statistic also includes the result of the AL-SEN runoff from Tuesday, where there are now 3 candidates instead of 4.

Almost 18% (17.78%) of all declared SEN candidates are neither Republican nor Democratic. For lack of past stats on this, I personally have no way to compare this statistic to previous cycles, but my sense is that that is an extremely high number of "Independents" in our overwhelmingly two-party system, perhaps a sign of continuing dissatisfaction with the status quo.

As of today, for each Senate Seat change, the party in control of that seat will be marked by color (the now widely accepted red vs blue) and the current number of candidates for that seat will be listed in parentheses to the right of the seat itself.

There were changes in AL-SEN 2 spec 2017 (3), AZ-SEN 1 (9), FL-SEN 1 (11), KS-SEN 2 (2), NJ-SEN 1 (6), PA-SEN 1 (13), TN-SEN 1 (5 - Corker is retiring, making this seat now an open seat), WI-SEN 1 (

Yes, unbelievably, the 2020 race in Kansas for Robert's seat is underway and both he and a D have officially filed with the FEC.

I would say that the biggest news of the week is Bob Corker's announcement that he is retiring, thus making TN-SEN 1 an open seat. Also, interest in AZ-SEN 1 (Flake) continues to grow and the vultures are circling in PA and WI as well. Furthermore, we may very well end up with two Senate races in Arizona, based on current Senator John McCain's recent comments about his brain tumor. His seat is AZ-SEN 3, officially up for grabs in 2022, but should he depart from us or announce retirement, my feeling is that a flood of candidacies would be announced for this seat practically overnight. If John McCain, a war hero, former presidential nominee and maverick of the GOP, was sure he was going to make it, I don't think he would be dropping the test balloons he is dropping. Before we discuss the political side of this, let's not forget the human side, eh?

And finally, for such an explosive corruption case as is being argued against Senator Menendez (D-NJ), one would think that there would be more action in this race. Just for the record, if Menendez is found guilty, he must go. I don't want such crooks in the Democratic Party. But first, let the Justice system do it's work. I also think that anger on the Right about lack of media attention to his case is very justified. Corruption is corruption, regardless of party.

Source (with entries going back to and including September 18th, 2017)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

-Stat

 

As usual there is politics at work here but this is far from the first time that Menendez has been involved with corruption allegations. His record is tainted and hardly surprising given that NJ does have one of the most corrupt legislatures in the nation IMO. 84% of NJ voters want him to resign if he is found guilty but there is an interesting twist here. NJ's gubernatorial election is in November with a Dem the favorite to replace Republican Gov Krispie Kreme. If Menendez resigns BEFORE the new governor is sworn in then it will obviously flip the seat and change the balance in the Senate for all of 2018. However Menendez is not obligated to resign even if found guilty. It would require a 2/3rds vote of the Senate to force him out. So my bet is that if found guilty Menendez will hand in his resignation effective on the day AFTER the new governor takes up residence in Drumthwacket.

 

Nice analysis.

Is it really called Drumthwacket???

lol...

 

Pretty cool maps and charts!