2018 Senate Predictions part one

2018 Senate predictions:

1: Utah

For the purposes of this essay I start with the earliest start for the person who started the present term in the Senate seat. That's Orrin Hatch of Utah, first elected in 1976. At age 84 he is still neither the oldest nor the longest-serving US Senator, but as longest-serving Republican he has been President pro Tempore since the party retook the majority in 2015. He's retiring healthy at 84. A Mormon, Hatch fully expects to live 6 more years but everyone deserves some retirement. To replace him, Utah Republicans are taking no chances. They picked Mitt Romney, 71, former Senate candidate in Massachusetts (1994) and losing Presidential nominee (2012). 71 is old to start a term in the Senate, but Romney is also a clean-living Mormon and expects to live long enough for at least 3 terms. He gets bored fast so I doubt he'll go past 2. To oppose him the Democrats picked Jenny Wilson. She serves on the Salt Lake City City Council. That makes her far more qualified than the party's last nominee-a cashier. Wilson worked on the 2002 Olympics so Romney was kind of her boss. Her family has been in Utah for 5 generations so they're probably related. She has no chance

Romney wins: GOP hold.

2: Mississippi special election

Republican Senator Thad Cochrane was right behind Hatch in seniority, reaching the Senate in 1979 as the state was transitioning from blue to red. He retired April 1, aged 81 and too ill to do his duty. He's still alive and on his stronger days possibly regrets not waiting longer. He was replaced by Cindy Hyde-Smith, the first female Senator ever in Mississippi. She faces a special election to finish the term in 2020. November 6 is the primary. She'll probably have some serious opponents in the GOP primary, including people who might have fancied themselves ready to replace Cochrane as early as 2002 when he could have retired at 65. In that deep red state, Hyde-Smith is more likely to lose the primary than to any Democrat. The GOP nominee will win.

GOP hold.

3: Arizona special

John McCain reached the Senate in 1987 and died in office 19 months into his sixth term. To replace him they chose the only living former US Senator from Arizona John Kyl. Kyl retired in 2012 after 24 years. Jeff Flake is leaving after only one term. Kyl wishes to retire again when the special election is held to finish McCain's term (through 2022). Arizona is a swing state but when they find someone they love they keep him a long time. They love Kyl. Democrats of course are hoping to gain 2 seats on election day but the midterms aren't over until Cochrane's and McCain's seats are filled. That election will be highly contested by good people. I suspect Kyl will have a great deal of influence on which Republican seeks to finish the term. It might be someone very famous. I think ultimately the GOP choice will win.

GOP hold.

4: California

Dianne Feinstein (85) is the oldest sitting Senator right now and the first woman to have that honor. When she won a special election in 1992 California was one of the states that was getting passionate about term limits. Smart Californians knew it would never happen at the national level, so they decided to elect a woman so old she couldn't possibly think of serving more than 26 years. She sure fooled them. At 85 she is seeking another 6-year term. Since she arrived in Washington California became a blue state, so much so that they decided it isn't fair for a Republican with perhaps only 30% statewide support to be on the November ballot against a Democrat who many Democrats don't even like. So they decided to put all candidates for all offices on one ballot and let only the top 2 compete in November. It worked. For Governor and Senate the top 2 are Democrats. In the US House and most other offices a Democrat will face a Republican or Independent or Libertarian or Green Party candidate. Those parties atre stronger in California than almost anywhere and they are the big victims, having no chance to win with less than 50%. In this case Feinstein finished first and fellow Democrat Kevin De Leon second. De Leon was born in 1966 and is running on a promise to be alive in 6 years. He's been a state Senator since 2011, before that the state Assembly 2009-11. He's basically a socialist in the Bernie Sanders mode and has much support. Against any Republican he would in easily, but against Feinstein his best hope is that she dies before November 6.

Feinstein wins reelection.

5: Florida

4 US Senators still serving were first elected in 2001. We'll start with the one of everyone's mind at the time: Bill Nelson in Florida. You remember the Florida vote in 2000. Part of the reason Al Gore was so sure he won was because Nelson had 77000 more votes than Gore and W. How could any Floridian vote for the handsome charming Floridian and not also vote for stiff lying Al. Nelson had 51% of the vote to 46% for his opponent, obviously no W. The totals stayed. W. became President and Nelson started serving Florida. Democrats didn't have the easiest time winning in 2000, but winning in 2006 when the country turned on W. and in 2012 with Obama's coattails has been rather easy and some of them might not take this election seriously enough. Nelson is 75 now and in the aftermath of McCain's death voters might think it unwise to vote for Nelson again. On the other hand Florida is full of people older than he. To challenge him the GOP picked one of the biggest guns in their arsenal: Governor Rick Scott. Scott was born in 1952 so he doesn't promise a long career either. Should he lose his retirement begins in January. Scott has led the state through several hurricanes, spoke at some delicate funerals and did his job well. I think his popularity exceeds Nelson's and neither can use ethnicity to advantage. With the state's rapid changes of population Scott has another advantage because he last was elected in 2014, Nelson in 2012. This will be a close race few will pick.

Scott wins: GOP gain.

6: Delaware

In Delaware Tom Carper is 71. The state is blue but not so terribly blue that anyone should get complacent. After 3 terms including some easy victories Carper could get too complacent. Carper's opponent is better than the last one. Robert Arlett has been a City Councilman since 2014, He has no chance.

Carper wins reelection.

7: Michigan

Debbie Stabenow was elected in 2000 with Gore taking Michigan. She won a second term with the blue wave of 2006 and helped Obama over the op to a second term in 2012. None of those were easy. Michigan is a swing state but votes against Texans in presidential races because of a 170-year rivalry. She was 50 when she reached the Senate. No doubt many hoped she'd be President or VP by now. At 68 she still might give it a try but most Michiganders have lost patience. Stabenow is vulnerable. Her opponent John James. He's black. He's a soldier. He's miscegynous. He's wonderful. He has no chance.

Stabenow wins reelection.

8: Washington state

The other Senator seeking a full fourth term is Washington's Maria Cantwell. She's still just 60 in a state that went full blue early this century. At the moment she appears to be unopposed.

Cantwell wins reelection.

9: New Jersey

A Senator who does nothing worthwhile for 12 or 18 years deserves to lose to a candidate who might do something worthwhile. New Jersey has the only Senator who should lose this year for being a bad man. Bob Menendez is 64 and joined the Senate in 2006, winning a full term later that year and another in 2012, safely above 50% in blue New Jersey. As soon as he started the present term he was accused of all manner of corruption charges. After several hung juries the Justice Department gave up because they had to protect other criminals. He won a tough primary despite this and is trying for another term. To challenge him Republicans pick Bob Kugin. He too was born in 1954. He was a marine, has a degree in business administration and ran a biotech firm. With that background this is the man who might best perform surgery on Obamacare and replace it with a reformed system everyone can live with. That's why I predict he'll lose a close election to the crook.

Menendez wins reelection.

10: Maryland

11 US Senators took their seats for the first time after the 2006 election and won second terms in 2012. Both parties are represented and all kinds of states. I'll start with one of the original 13: Maryland. Senator Ben Cardin got the job at 63, so naturally he'd be betraying his voters by retiring at 75. Electing an older man hoping for shorter service guarantees longer service than a younger person who might take the money and run after a term or 2. In a blue state, Cardin had less trouble than some other Democrats winning their first term that year and he'll expect less trouble than most keeping his seat this year. Republicans have selected Tony Campbell, no doubt hoping some will think he's a former NBA player and others a former running back. (That's what I thought when I saw the name.) As a black Republican he would go straight to the middle of the pack for Presidential consideration in 2024 if he can win this seat. He attended Liberty University. That would make him popular with Baptists and give some comfort to other evangelicals, but he'll need a miracle to win. That branch of Baptists does not believe in seeking miracles. He'll lose to Cardin.

Cardin wins reelection.

11: Minnesota regular

As I recently demonstrated, Minnesota has become a purple state this century. That shows itself in many ways, among them the election of Amy Klobuchar to the Senate in 2006, As the first female elected Senator from Minnesota she was expected to make the state proud. Only 46 at the time and holding the seat once held by Hubert Humphrey, they expected her to run for President. She let them down in 2016 and though she's only 58 many may be writing off her chances. Since the state is still believed to be a gimme in Presidential races, no one will mention her for VP. Voters in Minnesota hold their Congressmen accountable and this is her time to account. She too had an easier ime than most winning her first term and was protected by Obama's coattails. She has to earn this one on her own and since she'll be on the ballot the same day as the special election to fill Al franken's seat the turnout will be heavier and less friendly than ever. Her opponent is Jim Newberger, a State Representative since 2013. He majored in political science so he's trained at winning but has name recognition issues. I look for Klobuchar to win a squeaker.

Klobuchar wins reelection.

12: Mississippi regular

Staying with the states that have 2 Senate votes on election day we return to Mississippi. Roger Wicker, 67, wanted to retire this year, but when Cochrane retired sick he felt compelled to run again. Republicans are confident that with him on the ballot again none of their candidates will have much to fear in fallout from the President's misdeeds. They're probably right. David Baria thought he'd be running against a novice but gets the big boy. 67 is not so old that Wicker is likely to struggle through 6 years so his only weapon is his credentials. I don't know why but Baria was in the state Senate from 2008-2012 then stepped lower to the state House of Representatives. He is the minority leader there for what that's worth. Born in 1962, he would instantly be a Democratic hero should he win. He has no chance.

Wicker wins reelection.

13: Staying with the Ms we have Claire McCaskill in Missouri. In that critical swing state she swept in with the wave of displeasure against W in 2006 and took the state despite Romney's narrow win there in 2012. She is 65 and resourceful. To challenger her the GOP picked Attorney General Josh Hawley. Born in 1979 Hawley might be the youngest US Senator if he wins and Missourians can dream a great future for him. In a state that demands something of their leaders McCaskill has little to present. No doubt the GOP is calling for crime enforcement and McCaskill is stuck with the task of explaining why millions of criminals should roam free. In an election that might take a week to decide, she loses.

Hawley wins. GOP gain.

14: Montana

Staying in the Ms we get to Jon Tester in Montana. It takes a special kind of Democrat to win in Montana, a red state since the day it joined the union that rarely flipped a seat. Jon Tester was 50 when he won in 2006, riding the anti-W wave. He kept the seat despite Romney taking it in 2012. This man is tough. However Democrats lost their bid to take the special House election. That's their only House seat, so the same voters will be at the polls November 6, voting for or against the same Congressman and also considering this race. Matt Rosendale was born in 1960, is now State Auditor after serving in the state House from 2011-13 and state Senate 2013-17. A state Auditor, though not an exciting job, does have to get votes from everywhere in the state, so he is familiar. Tester will be tested like never before and this too may be in doubt at sunrise November 7, but I think Tester will fail this test.

Rosendale wins. GOP gain.

15: Ohio

Ohio is a swing state and you remember how it swung in 2016. You don't need meddling in a state where a whole major industry was mad at one of the candidates. Sherrod Brown is 66 and won his first seat in 2006 when Democrats were winning everywhere. I believe it was his coattails that pulled Obama to victory in Ohio in 2012. That was the clincher state as you recall, or the party would not have started before midnight. Brown is a survivor. To challenge him the GOP chose Congressman Jim Renacci. He's one of those people running for their lives from Congress this year. He's running for US Senate. At 60 he has little to offer except a couple good terms. He was also once Mayor of Wadsworth. Brown will pull this one out.

Brown wins reelection.

 

16: Pennsylvania

Next door we have another state Hillary surrendered by insulting the coal industry. That will have no impact on Bob casey, Jr. of the beloved Casey family. At 58 his best days are ahead of him. The Gop is trying as hard as it can with US Congressman Lou Barletta. A former City Councilman and Mayor of Hazleton, Barletta is a career politician and would beat almost anyone, except a Casey.

Casey wins reelection.

17: Rhode Island

Sheldon Whitehouse didn't need the Democratic wave of 2006 or Obama's coattails in 2012 to win 2 terms in Rhode Island. He won't need much this year either. Now 63 he should run for President in 2020 with the slogan Put Whitehouse in the White House. His opponent is former judge Robert Flanders. Flanders is a former judge, now 69. He won't know what to do if he wins. He won't have that problem.

Whitehouse wins reelection.

18: Tennessee

In 2006 Bob Corker was elected to the Us Senate from Tennessee. Considering that he won on the day Democrats retook both houses of Congress that might be called the day Tennessee became a red state. Corker is retiring at 66. He is neither Mormon nor Jewish and so expects to die after only a standard retirement. The fight for his seat will be the thriller of the season. Republican Marsha Blackburn, born 1952 and a politician since the 80s is giving up the House seat she's held since 2003 for a chance to move up late in life. She started as the GOP chairman 1989-91, then was in charge of an entertainment Committee from 1995-99, then the state Senate. To challenge her the Democrats pulled out the second-biggest living Democratic legend of the state, because Al Gore knows he'd lose. That's former Governor Phil Bredeson. The day Corker was elected he earned a second term as Governor. Voters do split their tickets. Bredeson majored in physics in college and also served as Mayor of Nashville from 1991-99. This is one of the 2 places Democrats truly hope to gain a seat. At 75 Bredeson can promise only one term and perhaps claim that will free him of any burdens regarding lobbyists. That may be true, but do they want a one-term old Democrat when they can have a 2-term Republican woman? I think the GOP narrowly holds this seat.

Blackburn wins: GOP hold.

19: Vermont

By running as a Democrat this year Bernie Sanders will be facing only one major challenger instead of 2. He beat them in 2006 and 2012. Bernie is 77 and will be doing what McCain did in 2010: starting another term to prove he could have lasted 2 terms as President. Jews live longer so being alive in 2024 is not in doubt. The state has gone from red to blue in his lifetime and Bernie is more responsible for that than anyone. Republicans picked Brooke Paige, a man with a woman's name, but he decided to run for Attorney General because he might have a chance. That leaves the opposition to Lawrence Zupan, 59 with no political experience. He has no chance.

Sanders wins reelection.

20: Wyoming

Republican John Barrasso is seeking his third term at 66. Winning a first term in Wyoming in 2006 was not hard for a Republican. Winning a third term this year is not much harder. His opponent Gary Trauner was born in 1958, is Jewish and served on the Teton County School District. He has no chance.

Barrasso wins reelection.

21: New York

Kirsten Gillibrand, New York beauty, was appointed to the Senate early in 2009 after Hillary went to the cabinet to poison the soup. She had to win an election in 2010 to keep her job then the regular election in 2012, so she knows how to win. She's still only 52 and has her best days ahead unless she fumbles this election. She voted for the stimulus bill but claims she was assaulted by other Congressmen. She voted for Obamacare too. Republicans have little hope in New York, so they picked Chele Farley, an engineer who works in financial services. Chele has no chance.

Gillibrand wins reelection.

22: Minnesota special

It took 8 months to recount the votes from the 2008 Minnesota Senate election and when they did comedian Al Franken had come from a few hundred votes behind to a few ahead. He became the 60th Democrat in the Senate, a supermajority. That didn't last long though. Ted Kennedy died and it was 59. His friend took his seat so it was 60 again. Then a Republican won that seat, dropping them to 59 and down from there. Franken won reelection rather easily in 2012 and was a rising star in the dusky Democratic Party. Then it was revealed he groped a woman with a career built on groping. So he quit. Naturally a woman was chosen. It's Tina Smith, 60. She's running for the remainder of the term-2 years. Her opponent is Karin Housley. Housley is a pretty blonde, born 1964, a state Senator since 2013. This is my most radical prediction. Obviously if both incumbent Democrats win in Minnesota nothing has changed. If both lose it proves the state has turned purple. I'm predicting that the voters will reelect Amy Klobuchar but the same voters will pick Housley over Smith. That will prove the state is evenly split, but also that Minnesota voters are perhaps the most thoughtful anywhere.

Housley wins: GOP gain.

23: West Virginia

Joe Manchin was Governor of West Virginia in 2010 when Senator Robert Byrd expired. He appointed a young man named Carte Goodwin to the post, the youngest Senator replacing the oldest, implying Goodwin also might stay there 50 years, then announced he was running in the special election. Goodwin didn't try to run against the popular Governor, so Manchin won that election and a full term in 2012. Goodwin has yet to run for anything else. Now 71, Manchin is a conservative Democrat, so conservative his campaign ad showed him shooting a target meant as Obamacare. The state has turned red around him, with total contempt for Hillary. As a result Manchin will never have an easy reelection. In a tough primary Attorney General Patrick Morrissey won the nomination to challenge him. When Rhode Islanders got to choose between a Republican who votes like a Democrat and a real Democrat they chose the real Democrat. This could be close, but Manchin wins.

Manchin wins reelection.

24: Nevada

Democrat Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate in 2011 to complete the term of John Ensign after Ensign resigned over ethics problems. Safely in the shadow of Democratic leader Harry Reid and with Obama's coattails, Heller won a full term in 2012. In this swing state no one is ever safe, but Heller knows it and he's giving one Heller of a good effort. His opponent is Jacky Rosen. Rosen was born in 1957, making her older than Heller (5. She won a close race to get a seat in the House of Representatives. With that seat shaky she's aiming higher. Heller will pull this out and become a Democratic hero.

Heller wins reelection.

25: Hawaii

The remaining 11 Senators are finishing their first term. Mazie Hirono of Hawaii is 71 and has more to fear from her body than her opponent. To challenge her the GOP picked a military man named Ron Curtis. Born in 1957 he's at least old enough for a state that likes them old, but he's an engineer with no political experience. He has no chance.

Hirono wins reelection.

26: Indiana

Indiana likes their Senators young and vibrant, so at 63 Joe Donnelly is in for trouble. Mike Pence showed his strong influence in pulling the midwest to the Trump side in 2016 and is championing Donnelly's challenger. Ignore the media rhetoric that this election is about the President. It isn't, except in Indiana. Indiana is still a swing state, but could turn red soon and the evidence will be if Donnelly loses. His opponent is Mike Braun, born in 1954. That's old to start a Senate career. He has only served 4 years in the state House of Representatives so he has much to do in the area of name recognition. He'll fall a little short.

Donnelly wins reelection.

27: Maine

In Maine former Governor Angus King is going for a second term at 74. He;s a true independent and that has helped in the swing state. Unlike Bernie in nearby Vermont he's facing 2 opponents. The Democrat is Zak Ringelstein. To show how far to the left he is he went directly to Texas to visit the detained immigrants and got arrested. The Republican is Erik Brakey. Brakey just turned 30, the minimum age for a Senator. He's hoping to become the first 11-term Senator ever and hoping the state's oldest citizens will vote for him to be part of that without ever getting close to finding out while younger voters age with him. That might work, but not against King.

King wins reelection.

28: Massachusetts

Massachusetts reelects Democrats no matter what they do: adultery. manslaughter, drunkenness, rape, sex trafficking, mob ties and graft mean nothing if you're a Democrat. Elizabeth Warren has only passed on a lie for small tangible gain, so she's deep in the shadow of those great sinners of the past, but she has become a bitch, starting with the hateful campaign that got her the job 6 years ago. Unlike California, Republicans are permitted a candidate in this election. Geoff Diehl is not a big deal and will lose. The question is can he make it close (41%). He can, because Warren, 69, already let down her supporters by not running for President in 2016 and is being baited into challenging Trump in 2020. She talks too much and has earned the word bitch only 6 years ago. It will be close but Diehl won't earn votes, just get them by default.

Warren wins reelection.

29: Nebraska

Deb Fisher, 67, might never be famous nationwide, but serving 2 terms as Senator from Nebraska is worth something and she's trying for it. Democrats barely care about that state but at least they did fid a candidate: Jane Raybould is in the Lincoln City Council and was once on the Lancaster County Commission. She has no chance.

Fisher wins reelection.

30: New Mexico

New Mexico Senator Martin Heimlich is 47, hoping he can maneuver into prominence with a long career in the Senate. It's still a swing state but Obama was popular there and Heimlich won in his coattails in 2012. He'll have problems this time. The Republicans nominated Mick Rich, in the construction business. His campaign is one of those “grass roots” efforts and could go a long way. There is a Libertarian candidate worth noting here. 2-time Presidential nominee Gary Johnson is running for the Senate this year. As a former Governor he looks to do better than any third party candidate except incumbent Angus King. Can he win? Johnson only got 9% for President in his home state, but this is easier. Democrats won't vote for him in large numbers unless something about Heimlich turned them off. Republicans might favor Johnson since he was Republican. Libertarians aren't big on voting but he's their first chance to win a major race so they might show up for him. In a close race I think the Democrats stay with Heimlich and he wins, possibly with less than 40%.

Heimlich wins reelection.

31: North Dakota

You may have heard media pundits talking about the 5 Democratic Senators in states Trump won in 2016. They seldom add that some of these Senators are in states Democrats never win. If Heidi Heitkamp, 63, can win a second term in this red state, figuring out how she did it will be the Democratic Party's best hope of winning the Presidency again soon. She won her first term even though Obama lost the state for the second time. This woman has something others don't have. To beat her the GOP found the best they had. Kevin Cramer was born n 1961. He was Party Chairman, Tourism Director, Economic Development Director, Public Service Commissioner and in the House of Representatives since 2013. This should be a close race, pending when most go to sleep, maybe the morning after.

Cramer wins: GOP gain.

32: Texas

Ted Cruz turns 48 this year. Winning his first term as a Republican in Texas with a Romney win in the state was no big deal. As part of the tea party movement however he knew he had to do something to earn a second term. Since freshman Senators have little to do, he decided to run for President. Shaking every hand in Iowa got him a close win. Then he was in a cluster at third in New Hampshire, a cluster at second in South Carolina and Nevada, southern enough to finish second in most southern states, somehow first in the mountain states and powerless in northern cities. With a promise to do better next time he seeks a second term. Though I'm avoiding all polls I did hear someone getting excited that Cruz leads by less than 20%. His opponent is Beto O'Rourke. Don't let that nickname fool you. He's Irish enough for Boston. Born in 1972 he's been in Congress since 2013 and before that the El Paso City Council. I heard a few minutes of them debating the other day. O'Rourke is reminding farmers that if the wall is built, they'll lose their farms to eminent domain. While that may win some votes, rival farmers further from the border will do better with reduced competition. His other efforts on behalf of criminals and against guns won't play well in Texas.

Cruz wins reelection.

33: Virginia

Virginia has another Senator you might have heard of: Tim Kaine. He's 60, former Governor and VP loser. So far he has said he has no plans to seek the Presidency. That's because his running mate is still on the prospects list, but Virginians know he's their best hope to return to the greatness they had 200 years ago. His opponent is Corey Stewart, a District Supervisor, age 50. Virginia is a swing state with fierce partisans so every race is close, but Kaine's future prospects will win out.

Kaine wins reelection.

34: Wisconsin

Tammy Baldwin, 56, is good looking for a lesbian. Obviously it was her election in 2012 in Obama's coattails that made Hillary think she had no worries about carrying the state. It may be however that her election awakened a new passion in certain dormant elements of the state's electorate and will give her trouble this year. The GOP picked Leah Vukmir, 60, a nurse who served in the state Assembly from 2002-11 and State Senate since then. This catfight might be the most entertaining race of the year. I bet most pundits will not dare pick the inner but I'm brave.

Baldwin wins reelection.

35: Arizona regular

I saved the 2 best for last. Jeff the Flake is not seeking a second term in Arizona. At 56 this is not a retirement. His future is unclear. This is the race Democrats have the most realistic hope of gaining a seat. Arizona is a swing state that just happens to elect Republicans almost every time and keep them for life. The rapid movement of population makes situations volatile though. The death of John McCain means the loser of this race may return soon, but someone has to win. Both candidates are formidable. The GOP picked Martha Mcsally, born 1966. An Air Force pensioner, she's leaving the US House of Representatives after 4 years to try to move up. Democrats chose Krysten Sinema, born 1976, serving in the US House of Representatives since 2013 after a stint in both houses of the state legislature. McSally's marriage was annulled. Sinema is a lesbian. This is a tough call. Arizona is not one of the Bible belt states but does have many older people with traditional values. Men will tilt towards Mcsally. Republicans usually win, so McSally wins a tough one.

McSally wins: GOP hold.

 

Your words show you to be a misogynist and probably anti-Semitic, too. I think I'll wait for an unbiased, sincere forecast of the Senate elections, thank you very much.

 

There are no unbiased forecasts, just wrong ones. You're right. I love real women and real Jews.

 

I appreciate the information, but I question the prediction that places nearly every single competitive race into the camp of Republicans. By my count, you expect the GOP to emerge with a net gain of five seats and to lose zero. That seems entirely unrealistic given the larger trends across the country (democrats currently lead in the generic balloting by an average of 7.5 on RCP) and the polls from within the races that we do have.

The notion of attacking (or noting, if that makes you feel better) the marital or sexual status of several women is quite offensive and irrelevant though. Similarly, the notion of stating jewish stereotypes is really irrelevant and offensive.

 

I understand, and await others giving their lists. This is the third time I've done this. I had 5 wrong in 2014 and 6 in 2016. In 2014 my predictions came before the primaries. in 2016 I waited for the nominees (except in Louisiana where the primary is election day for everyone else. I was wrong there.) I avoid polls, using my knowledge of past voting patterns, history of the state and psychology. I wrote a long introduction for this. I can post it here if anyone cares. I think the rage against the President is mostly in the blue states and there aren't any incumbent Republicans to vote against. On my Facebook page I recently did a long essay explaining that Minnesota is about to turn purple (if it hasn't already). My boldest prediction (a split there) covers the overall theme of this and most races: the reasons people win are more personal. As for the ethnic considerations: my goal was brevity.
I stopped posting here after the 2016 election, knowing the hate and madness would be unbearable to talk about while the new administration was in progress, so I didn't even know if I'd find myself still a member. (I plan to look at nothing besides this section of the forum, and comment on nothing else.)
How do you feel about another observation I made for my Facebook friends recently? Bernie got 42% overall in the primaries but only 20% down south, proving at least 20% of southern Democrats are still anti-semitic.
Does acknowledging that prejudices will influence voting patterns make a man an advocate for the prejudices? I notice you said nothing about the comments on Baptists, Mormons, sinners, crooks, blacks, Hispanics, Irish, southerners and old people. Are you selective in which forms of bigotry you object to?

 

That generic balloting has been steadily declining for the democrats however, you need to realize that trend also.

Considering the democrats have 23 seats up and the republicans only 9 I wouldn't say a net gain of 5 is out of the question.

Democrats are in serious trouble if the economy stays like this until voting day.

 

A minor point, but Nevada Senator Dean Heller is a Republican, not a Democrat as you listed him. As much as I'm pulling for Heller to win, he does have a tough race against Rosen. Dem's are again pouring in a lot of money, and flooding the airwaves with anti-Heller ads. I suspect Rosen will be a tougher opponent for him to beat than the one he had in 2012. The polls show the race about even as of now.

 

This is the last three months.



I don't see a "steady decline" as you claim.

And I did not say that a net 5 is out of the question, but I highly doubt that prediction. It simply does not conform with the known data points.

 

Welcome back. Your insight is valued. I suppose some are just too set in their ways, and clearly, other posters here are the first to demonstrate that. I think, personally, there are yet more surprises. I find myself too superstitious to actually write them down.

 

Thanks for the point about Heller. I thought the numbers were wrong. It doesn't change the outcome since he's incumbent I picked to win. Overall perceptions don't decide individual elections. The details that will decide Florida, Arizona, Tennessee, Nevada, Montana, New Jersey, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Missouri, North Dakota, Maine, New Mexico and Indiana were largely unknown to me until last week. I weighed each carefully before choosing the inners and when I was done counted the results.
In any case, please offer your own lists, along with any demographic information I missed. That makes it a game.
With my predictions:
I get one point for each right pick.
Since I picked a 5-seat gain I get 5 points if I'm exactly right, minus one point for any variation plus or minus. 6 or 4 both lose one point, minus 1 or plus 11 loses 6 etc.
Since I picked a GOP gain I get 3 points for any GOP gain, lose 3 for a tie or Democrat gain.
Finally I get a point for every race I described as close (6% either way) or not close.
That would be a maximum potential of 78 points. A maximum of 74 can be attained on election day since 2 races come later. If an additional vacancy leading to an election comes up before the McCain special it adds to this election cycle.

 

I was worried too the first time. It's not that bad. The biggest news is that only 5 office-holders will lose if I'm right. As usual, not much really changes even in the most radical years.

 

In college technical writhing you should have learned to put a conclusion on your writings.

You forgot this time.

You need to tally up your prognostications and tell everyone if the GOP will retain or lose control of the Senate or House.

 

I wrote it before I was even sure this site still existed. Since it took 2 posts to get that in I figured I should wait to see if anyone even noticed.
For the Senate this would be an eventual 5-seat Republican gain. 2 elections will not be finished November 6.
For the House I can't itemize, but on my Facebook page I predicted that the Republicans would lose seats to the point that on November 7 we'll still be waiting for a combination of recounts. lawsuits and Louisiana runoffs to know which party has more.
Yesterday I started to look for something of interest.
Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticutt, Rhode Island, Delaware and Hawaii gave Hillary over 4 million votes, but those 4 million people don't have 1 GOP Congressman to vote against. Boy will they be upset.
In Maine, Maryland, New Mexico, Nevada and Oregon she got 2.8 million votes (losing Nevada). They have 1 Republican each. The guy in Maine has people who know nothing about current events except Reagan's doing a great job. I'm pretty sure most Republicans have been gerrymandered into the Maryland and Oregon district. In Nevada the GOP might gain.
No states have exactly 2 Republican House members except red states where they're both Republicans. Red states are pretty happy with things, especially the local guys.
You can find 3 Republican House members in Minnesota (3-5), Iowa and Mississippi both 3-1 Republican. Anything can happen in Iowa and Minnesota Republicans are passionate this year. They could gain a seat or 2. With 2 Senators on the list turnout in Mississippi should be high enough to put the Democrat in more trouble than the Republicans. Hillary got 2.5 million out of those states, but lost 2 of them.
There are exactly 4 Republican House members in Colorado (4-3) and Washington state (4-6). Hillary got 3 million there and that's a place the Democrats might break through bigtime.
There are 5 GOP House members from New Jersey (5-7), Wisconsin (5-3), Kentucky (5-1) and Louisiana (5-1). How could she be so confident about Wisconsin? She got 4.9 million votes in those places. Republicans are hoping to beat Menendez. If you hate bad people you have to vote against him, but then vote for Democrats to stop the bad President. A big GOP turnout should keep their Congressmen even if they can't stop Menendez.
In bigger states there are more. New York has 9 Republicans and 18 Democrats. Two-thirds of her voters will go home sad because a straight party vote only held the status quo.
Her margin of popular vote victory comes only from a 4 million lead in California. Obviously they can do damage there but there are lots of safe districts.
Here's a simple question. How many votes do you gain by insulting the people you need to convert?

 

I found this article to be interesting. I've grabbed it in a "post form" so as it can be easily read here.
How Dianne Feinstein Woke The Republican Sleeping Giant

September 26, 2018 3:09 pm
Politics
(Big League Politics) – Leftist California Senator Dianne Feinstein has done something even President Donald Trump could not do:
Awaken the sleeping giant of the Republican electorate to defeat the Democrats in the 2018 midterms.
It is widely, and incorrectly, thought that Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto said after the Pearl Harbor attack, “I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve.” He did not say that, but certainly believed it, having warned the Japanese leadership against involving the U.S. in World War II. That description fully characterizes what DiFi has achieved with her fabulous, fantastic flameout in attempting to derail Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.


If DiFi hatched the plan in July, when Christine Ford’s letter first arrived on her desk, it was at that time almost certain that she believed—based on polling—that the Democrats stood a chance of taking the Senate in November. My how things have changed.
Suddenly, not only will the Democrats stand no realistic chance of winning the Senate, but it increasingly looks as though they will lose another five to seven seats, and if DiFi’s trick has incensed enough Republicans to turn out, they could face a 60-seat majority next January.
Feinstein’s goal in the summer was delay, delay, delay. Keep Judge K off the court long enough to have the midterms provide a Democrat majority, then claim that “the people have spoken” and that the lame duck Republican majority couldn’t in good conscience confirm Kavanaugh (as if the Democrats ever do anything in “good conscience”).
At that time, she did not have any other accusers lined up, Rush Limbaugh’s prediction notwithstanding. It was only after the Democrats entertained the notion that, with Arizona Senator Jeff Flake’s fifth column collusion, they might possibly deny Kavanaugh the nomination, that they put out an Amber Alert for any other women. DiFi had failed to do her homework in this regard as well, and had to rely on sleaze junkie Ronan Farrow to find appropriate accusers.
Which he did. But the B-team he dredged up didn’t even have the credibility of Christine Ford, which is like saying a pervert doesn’t have the moral character of Harvey Weinstein.
At any rate, it was too late: DiFi had hitched her wagon to a Ford whose tank was empty and whose tires were flat. Her only hope lay in the vengeful and spiteful Flake, and possibly one other weak-kneed Republican.
Still, things appeared on pace for a successful obstruction until two things happened. First, the Three Musketeers of Trump, Kavanaugh, and Yertle (Mitch McConnell) did something wholly unexpected of Republicans in Washington:
They fought.
All defiantly stood their ground, with McConnell promising a floor vote and promising Judge K will be confirmed soon. Either McConnell, who is not at all given to hyperbole, knows he has the votes and that with or without Flakey, the other Republicans will toe the line, or for the first time in two years, he has stated something as a fact (in terms of his procedural abilities) that he could not pull off.
At this point, even the Kavanaugh nomination begins to take a back seat to DiFi’s other fabulous, fantastic, eff up: She has mobilized a somnambulant Republican base and filled it with a “terrible resolve.”
Already this was shifting some. A recent NBC poll found GOP enthusiasm has nearly matched that of Democrats. Most “generic” ballot polls have steadily moved from double digits in the Democrats’ favor to only two or three points. But Gallup yesterday had the Republicans actually leading by one in party favorability, and an unnamed pollster has shared data with me that shows Republican enthusiasm spiking to shocking levels.
Anecdotally, however, the indicators are even stronger. Outrage at DiFi’s stunts have blown up Facebook and Twitter, and tales of entire nail salons being entirely unanimous in their disgust for the Democrats and support of the Judge are legion. Earlier the #WalkAway movement was eating into Democrat ranks, but now the fury has expanded to rank-and-file party members who are sickened by the hate machine their party has become.
Most of all, DiFi’s shocking stumble occurred at a time when “tossup” House seats were already starting to slightly trend Republican. In the past month, a good dozen of the expected 30 “sure thing” House flips have solidified in the GOP’s favor, to the point that now districts such as FL27—once considered a loss—have drifted back to even at best.
Last week I had separate discussions with Minnesota Republicans, certain they will flip two Democrat seats red and beat Keith Ellison for the Attorney General spot. They had the same thoughts on expected Republican turnout. Although Minnesota had an unsettling primary turnout advantage for the Democrats, I was told “don’t worry.” One said, “I personally know 10 Republicans too busy to vote in the primary, but who will absolutely vote in the general. They actually didn’t care which Republicans won the primary, because they were ready to vote against Democrats months ago!”
We shall see. But it appears DiFi has cost her party the House, handed the Republicans a larger senate majority, and deeply wounded the Democrat party among the American middle class.


bigleaguepolitics.com/how-dianne-feinstein-woke-the-republican-sleeping-giant/

 

On my Facebook page I commented on every primary except the first one in Illinois. My summary found apathy the problem.
So the primaries are over except for Louisiana where November 6 is the primary and candidates failing to take 50% go to a runoff 5 weeks later. Based on the results of the primaries I predict that Louisiana runoff, along with about 5 recounts elsewhere will decide which party has control of the House of Representatives next term.

In all the House primaries, exactly 4 incumbents of nearly 400 lost.
The first was in Pennsylvania, where they had just redistricted to get rid of him. He lost by a few hundred votes.
That means the Devil wins, or the Devil finally loses after winning 3 straight times.
The second was former Governor and adulterer Mark Sanford. He fell 1% short of getting a runoff.
The Devil loses.
The third was in New York City where a 56-year-old bald guy lost to a Latina beauty.
The fourth was in Boston, where the primary was the day after Labor Day. A 20-year incumbent who has done nothing at all lost because his supporters had to work while his black beauty opponent had the support of students, teachers and people on Welfare, none of whom worked on election day.

In the US Senate 30 incumbents were renominated.
3 Senators are leaving healthy, McCain died, Thad Cochrane retired sick and Al Franken resigned in disgrace.
That means the November 6 election will not end the season.
November 6 is the date of the primary for the special election to replace Cochrane. Cindy Hyde-Smith replaced him and is running, but will face some serious challengers in the primary.
John Kyl replaced McCain. Eventually there will be a special election to finish that term. Kyl is not running.
In Minnesota Tina Smith replaced Franken and is running for 2 years to finish his term on election day as well.
Louisiana does not have a Senate race this year, but 2 Republican seats will still be waiting for special elections after November 6, meaning the present totals: 51 GOP, 48 Democrats and one independent, might hold but with 2 seats to be flippable before 2020.

 

Big league politics is a super questionable website. And the logic they display in this argument is even more questionable.

Is it possible that the investigation into the Ford allegations against kavanaugh will awaken a sleeping Republican voter? Maybe, but it is much, much more likely that the group which is already the most motivated to vote (democratic women) and the political group with the most enthusiasm (democrats) will be see much more reason to vote after watching a patient, accommodating, and credible for get dismissed by republicans in favor of a hysterical, combative, and dismissive judge kavanaugh.

Can you imagine the reactions if the performances by kavanaugh and Ford had been reversed?

 

That's the type of speculative article every columnist will probably touch on within a week.
The only Pole I look at is Petra Nemcova, and I've committed her to memory.
If I was an editor of anything with authority over one salaried reporter I would assign him to find one red district (3 straight Republican House members) in any red state (W.-Romney-Trump) in which the incumbent is in danger. I suspect about 2 such persons exist, otherwise they'll be flipping the same seats that bounce in 2010, 2006, 1994, 1986, 1980 and 1974.

 

Still, after 2016, it is virtually impossible to predict how The Senate will go.

The only poll that matters is Election nIght, etc.

That said, the Dems need to pull an inside straight (win almost every contested race) to get control.

 

Has anyone ever done a good poll about polls?
Does knowing you candidate will win make you stay home?
Does knowing your candidate will lose make you stay home?
Is it important to vote for the winner?
Do you decide who to vote for based on polls?
Do you donate to candidates certain to win?
Do you donate to candidates certain to lose?
Did you ever not vote because a poll said your vote was useless then have the expected loser win?

 

I loathe both Nelson & Scott. Scott is a criminal, IMO, due to his requiring welfare recipients pass a drug test before benefits, and then sending all the testing (money) to his wife's company.

Nelson is a criminal because of the length of time he's been in Congress. You don't stay in Congress that long without being beholden to your corporate masters.

We're screwed, yet again. Our choice is between truly horrible and truly horrible. **** these asshats.

 

Nelson is a Senator who does nothing for several years and then reappears as soon as the new election cycle comes around.

Speaking of decades old behavior... Anyone want to see a photo of Nelson at a cross burning near Rochelle, Florida, back when the University of Florida was being integrated ???

 

Is that better or worse than a governor who enacts policies for the sole purpose of expanding the size of his bank account?

 

As Democratic Governor Lawton Chiles once said, "Another Special favor for the Fish Eaters."

And when the priest received the note in error, this was the response from Governor Chiles...


''You got to expect some of this with a 61-year-old man who takes drugs.''

 

So, better or worse?