2020 HOR elections

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Aug 22, 2019.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    At the opening of this thread, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR in 2020.
    Friday, there were 1,548
    Today, there are 1,561

    2019-10-006 HOR declared candidates.png
    2019-10-006 HOR declared candidates 002.png
    The gender distribution among declared candidates has remained completely steady the entire time, at 70% male / 30% female.

    Exactly two years ago tomorrow, the total number was 1,664.

    2019-10-006 HOR declared candidates - rückblick auf 2017.png


    You can see that the margin D-R between the candidates is vastly different this time around vis-a-vis the 2018 mid-term elections. In 2018, the Democratic Party was the party out of power and so, a healthy jump in D-candidates was expected. This time around, with the Republican Party out of power in the HOR, the Ds still have the edge on declared candidates. I reported earlier in this thread that at current, there are 88 D-shut out seats, meaning, 88 seats where the GOP is currently fielding no one.


    I've combed through the GREEN PAPERS for a number of hours on end and found 57 districts where the nominees from 2018 from both parties are listed as candidates from the same two parties in the same district, therefore opening the possibility, at current, of 57 rematches. Remember, they are just candidates right now, and not nominees, but some of the names on the list were from major marquee races in 2018 that were narrow wins, so they are likely to get a lot of play this time around. I thought you might want to see who those people are:

    2019-10-006 HOR declared rematch candidates from 2018.png
    2019-10-006 HOR declared rematch candidates from 2018 -002.png
    Having the data in this kind of table format is actually quite helpful. For instance, of the 43 D pick-ups and 3 R pickups from 2018, we may be looking at rematches in a total of 11 of them.

    Also, a couple of excruciatingly close races that went down to the wire may indeed be rematches again, kingpins among them being MN-01 (Dan Feehan re-challenging Jim Hagedorn) and NM-02 (where former Rep. Yvette Herrell is re-challenging Xochitl Torres-Small, who narrowly unseated her in 2019). In CA-50, Ammar Campar-Najjar (who was really smeared because his grandfather was one of the Munich terrorists of 1972, he himself was born after his grandfather died....) is again challenging Duncan Hunter. But Hunter is indicted in a massive financial scandal and may end up in jail before election 2020. Hunter himself is being primaried by former Rep. Darrell Issa, who was elected in CA-49 and not CA-50 and who does not live in CA-50, so ugly accusations of carpetbagging are already flying. Campar-Najjar has $255,000 in his financial warchest, whereas the incumbent has $376,00, which of course will not help him if he and his wife land in jail for misappropriation of campaign funds. So, keep an eye on CA-50 in the CA jungle primaries, all sorts of interesting stuff may happen. In VA-02, which Elaine Luria flipped to team Blue in 2018, the former office-holder, Scott Taylor, wants his job back. Considered a formidable campaigner, he could make this race a barnburner. In TX, which has the most open seats at present, we are at the same time looking at the possibility of 6 rematches (9 races are listed as rematches here, but 3 really are open races).

    Note: Some of these are listed as OPEN races which means that they actually cannot be rematches, but they are as long as the candidate who has pulled out of the race has not yet officially cancelled or transferred his or her financial paperwork with the FEC, just to explain. Alone in California, we may be looking at 10 rematches. And with 153 seats still out there that are currently shut-outs, this list is bound to grow.

    The advantage of a challenger trying it again? Name recognition that doesn't have to be built.
    The disadvantage of a challenger trying it again: Name recognition that doesn't have to be built, if said recognition hurt the campaign the 1st time around.

    I will be updating this list in November.
     
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  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    When I began this thread on 08/21 (on twitter), there were 1,305 declared HOR candidates.
    As of today, 10/10, there are 1,585, +280 over 08/21.

    2019-10-010 HOR declared candidates 001.png
    2019-10-010 HOR declared candidates 002.png

    Very close to this day in 2017, there were: 1,616

    2019-10-010 HOR declared candidates Rückblick auf 2017.png
    The ratio men to women is stabile at 70%/30%.
     
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  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    When I began this thread on 08/21/2018, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US HOR.
    Today, Monday, 10/14/2018, there are now 1,603 such candidates:

    2019-10-014 HOR declared candidates.png
    2019-10-014 HOR declared candidates 002.png
    The balance of men to women has remained steady at M 70 / W 30 the entire time.

    The number of districts where at last one major party has yet to field a candidate currently = 145, divided as following:

    2019-10-014 HOR declared candidates - R shutouts 001.png
    2019-10-014 HOR declared candidates - R shutouts 002.png
    54 seats where no Democrat has announced a candidacy. Were this to continue through the primaries, then these seats would be automatic R-shutout seats.

    2019-10-014 HOR declared candidates - complete shutouts (8).png
    8 seats where neither party has fielded a candidate yet. Don't worry, this won't stay this way for long.

    2019-10-014 HOR declared candidates - D shutouts 001.png
    2019-10-014 HOR declared candidates - D shutouts 002.png
    2019-10-014 HOR declared candidates - D shutouts 003.png

    83 seats where no Republican has announced a candidacy. Were this to continue through the primaries, then these seats would be automatic D-shutout seats.

    For comparative purposes, on election night 2018, there were 39 shutout seats (36D, 3R) and on election night 2014, there were 65 shutouts (33D, 32R).

    As of this juncture in time (and I will refer to the graphics in this posting), as soon as a seat that is currently a shutout seat gets declared candidate(s), then I will note this.

    And for fun, here are the hottest seats in terms of candidate interest (no, not all of them are going to be that interesting after the primaries):

    2019-10-014 HOR declared candidates - hottest races 001.png
    Those are the 18 seats with 9 or more candidates in the running for the primaries. That's 222 candidates alone from these 18 seats, or 13.8% of all HOR candidates out there right now. Unsurprisingly, the majority of those 18 seats are open seats due the seat being vacated by the current office holder.

    So, those are the most current HOR stats.

    -Stat

    :)
     
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  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    So, from yesterday to today (10/15/2019 or 15.10.2019, depending on your dating system), we have moved from 1,603 declared HOR candidates to 1,613 such candidates.
    2019-10-015 HOR totals.png
    2019-10-015 HOR totals 002.png
    The male/female spread remains constant at: M 70 / F 30. It has been this way the entire time.

    The following formerly unopposed races are no longer "shutouts":

    ID-01 (was a GOP-shut out, now has a Democratic challenger), WI-03 (was a D-shutout, now has a Republican challenger) and WI-07 (was a GOP-shutout, now has a Democratic challenger, so the total number of shutouts has moved from 145 to 142. Actually, in WI-07, the candidates are for the special election end of January 2020, since Duffy has resigned from his seat.

    Here the totals by state, in descending order:

    2019-10-015 HOR totals 003.png
    2019-10-015 HOR totals 004.png

    I expect that this list will at least go over a total of 1900 by the end of the year, but I am not sure it will go as high as it did in 2018 (over 2,100 declared candidates). Wait and see.

    -Stat
     
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  5. Steady Pie

    Steady Pie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Also, whether the Dems will pick someone less odious than Hillary for the Presidential side of things.
     
  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    When I began the OP on 08/22, looking toward 2020, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US House of Representatives.

    Two days ago, on 10/15, there were 1,613.

    Today, 10/17, there are now 1,625.

    That's an increase of 320 declared candidates in just a little less than 2 months time.

    2016-10-017 HOR declared candidates 001.png
    2016-10-017 HOR declared candidates 002.png

    The balance of candidates between men and women has remained incredibly stable, at M 70 / F 30 all along the way.

    In terms of shut outs, there were two changes, resulting in a net change of ZERO:
    KS-02 moved toward an R-shut-out as the sole D-candidate quit her candidacy. These things can happen,too. I suspect that $$$ was the main factor.
    GA-12 went from an R-shut out to now a competitive race, as a Democrat has entered the race.

    As I have noted a couple of times on this thread, the number of unopposed races (potential shut-outs) is considerably higher than was the case at this juncture in time two years ago, especially the D-shutouts, where no R has declared yet.

    For comparison of the overall stats, here the numbers from exactly two years ago tomorrow (that would be Friday, 10/20/2017):

    2016-10-017 HOR declared candidates rückblick auf 2017.png


    So, as you can see, we have, at this current time, only 65 less declared candidates than in 2017 for 2018.

    However, the spread is very different: two years ago, the Ds had a +27% edge in the sheer number of declared candidates. This time around, they have an edge of +2.7%. That spread is quite literally 10 times smaller than 2 years ago That sounds bad for the Ds, but it is actually just the opposite. Two years ago, the Democrats were the minority party in the HOR, clawing their way to majority status and, seeing positive signs of a D-wave, they came out in droves. This time around, the Republicans are the minority party in the HOR, so logically, were there signs of an impending R-wave, they would be coming out in droves right now, but they are not. And in fact, I can prove that the highest concentrations of Rs running for individual seats are where there are R retirements (or expected R retirements that havent happened) in R seats that are hopefully going to stay safe in the event of a second D-wave, ala 2018. Here are the top 34 seats, with 5 or more declared GOP candidates, in descending order:

    2016-10-017 HOR declared candidates top 35 R seats in terms of numbers.png

    That adds up to 222 GOP candidates competing in their (numerically seen) top 34 seats. That's 30% of all GOP candidates, in only 8% of all HOR seats that are available. You can see that indeed, there are a lot of GOP candidates in 12 seats (highlighted in blue) that were D-pickups in 2018. However, there were 43 D-pickups in 2018 and only 12 have made the GOP top-candidate list, at least in numeric terms. More interesting is that there are 10 GOP seats here, 4 of which were landslide wins in 2018, that are also on the list.

    Now, let's compare this to the Ds. There will be some similarities and some differences:

    2016-10-017 HOR declared candidates top 35 D seats in terms of numbers.png

    Here are the top 34 seats for the Ds (ends with Chip Roy), but if we use the same criteria are for the Rs (5 declared candidates or more), then the D list would only be 24 seats. So, two totals: 152 Ds in seats where they are currently fielding 5 candidates or more - with the Rs, that number was 222), 192 total Ds when you simply take the top 35 seat positions. 152 Ds = 19.4% of all of their candidates, 192 Ds = 25% of that same total. So, no matter how you look at it, the Ds have percentually less candidates in their numerically hottest seats for 2020 than the Rs, which means that the rest of the Ds are more uniformly spread over the other 400 seats. That's an immutable. mathematically provable fact. Here on the D list are 13 current R seats and some of them overlap with the R list above.

    Once again, as soon as the primaries are over and we are are down to (mostly) 2-man races, this is no guarantee that all of these races on those two current top-34 lists are going to be the hottest marquee races of 2020. For instance, in MN-01, there are currently 3 D candidates (1 D, 2 FDL), 1 R candidate (the incumbent who just barely won this seat in 2018 - and 1 totally unknown unaffiliated candidate, making for a total of 5 candidates currently in the running in MN-01. The chances are very, very strong that this race will end up being a rematch between Democrat (and war veteran) Dan Feehan and the current Republican incumbent Jim Hagedorn. So, numerically, at this moment, the race looks kind of like a sleeper, but in reality, it will surely be in the top 10 most followed House races of 2020.

    Conversely, some races are attracting candidates like flies, but only because the current incumbent is being used as a lightning-rod by the other side. Good examples are NY-14 (OAC) and MN-05 (Ilhan Omar), both of whom won their last race by crushing margins of +50 or considerably more. So, sometimes extreme candidate activity is more an indication of anger specifically directed at a certain incumbent, but which will likely not have much bearing on the end result.

    You will notice that in both top-34 lists, the state of Texas plays a big role. With so many retirements in TX (and, I suspect, more to come), the Lone Star State is going to be a veritable hotbed of political activity in 2020, and not just on the presidential or senatorial level. In the HOR, it's going to be a mudfight, no doubt about it.

    Soon, I will be reporting about the older classes in the HOR (class of 1992 and earlier) for both parties, to see where possible retirements simply because of age are becoming more and more likely.

    Also: things can change in a CD very fast. In the last 12 congressional cycles, each and every time, we have either had a Representative (or his nominated challenger) die during election year, or suddenly resign because of a family tragedy, so we are talking about serious events that have absolutely nothing to do with politics. In 2018, an up-and-coming Democrat who had won the primary for FL-17, April June Freeman, died suddenly and at a very early age in the Fall of 2020. It caught literally everyone in the Florida political landscape by surprise.

    So, when it comes to congressional elections, my motto is: "look for stability, expect surprises".

    Just a reminder: if you go to the online EXCEL tables (one document with 8 helpful tabs), every single current incumbent is hyperlinked, so you can read up on him or her. And the link to every state at the GREEN PAPERS is also in the tables, there you can find the names, political affiliations and latest FEC numbers on every single candidate (incumbents and challengers alike). This saves us all a lot of search-work, to say the least.

    I hope this extra-long posting was a help to PF members.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2019
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  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Wow, I really was not trying to be prescient.... this makes me truly sad. He was a great man, a wonderful family man, a great patriot.


    http://www.politicalforum.com/index...ersight-committee-chair-is-dead-at-68.563068/
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2019
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    When this thread began, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR.
    Yesterday, 10/17/2019, there were 1,625
    Today, Friday, 10/18/2019, there are now 1,635.

    2016-10-018 HOR declared candidates 001.png
    2016-10-018 HOR declared candidates 002.png

    The gender balance remains absolutely stabile, at M 70 / F 30. It has been this way the entire time, without fail.

    From a posting above, you can see that only exactly this Friday two years ago (20.10.2017), there were 1,690 declared candidates for the HOR. So, gauging from cycle to cycle, we are only 55 declared candidates behind this juncture in time 2 years ago.

    An interesting development in OK-04:

    Oklahoma_US_Congressional_District_4_(since_2013).tif.png

    the incumbent, Tom Cole (first elected in 2002) has still not declared his candidacy and a little known Republican who had filed for the primary has now dropped out, which means that this seat is currently a D-shutout (unchallenged because there is no Republican candidate), and for the first time that I know of ever in Oklahoma's history, a woman has filed for the D-primary (Windy Lee Brown-Fietkau) in that CD. So, aside from having it's first woman Governor ever from 2011-2019 (Mary Fallon, who was also the states very first female Representative to congress, from OK-05, from 2007-2011, with Kendra Horn - the Democrat - now the 2nd female Representative ever from OK, also from OK-05), this is now the third case of a serious D-primary entry overall and as I wrote, the first time in OK-04. I am writing this because some states have had a verifiable history of electing men only until just the last decade or two, whereas other states were electing lots of women already starting in the 1970s and 1980s. I think this is a good and positive trend for Oklahoma and hope that it will continue.

    There are other states where currently only men are competing in the primaries, meaning, no women at all to-date: ID, MS and RI. Here I am referring specifically and only to the primaries for the US House of Representatives, just to be clear.

    But even more interesting is that Tom Cole has not declared yet. 2 years ago, he declared much earlier. Cole is 70 years old and enjoys a reputation as one of the more bi-partisan reps in the House. He sits on the Smithsonian Board of Regents and also the Board of the Fulbright (scholarship) association, both very worthy causes. He identifies himself as Chickasaw American Indian. Although Cole was a fierce opponent of Pres. Obama politically, personally the two got along quite well. If there was a Republican out there who has established himself as a thorough thinker and not just a knee-jerker, I would place Tom Cole in the thinker category. So, I am a little perplexed as to why he has not yet declared his candidacy. For him, OK-04 is an easy GOP win, the tilt of that district is overwhelmingly red and surely fundraising is not a problem for him. It can also mean that the no-name Republican who pulled out did it because he knows that Cole is planning to announce, but if he doesn't by Thanksgiving, then I would say that something is up, here. We shouldn't forget that being 70 years old in such a politically divisive atmosphere is not easy on one's health and when Cole was elected to his first term, he was already 53 going on 54, so he came a little late to the game, I would say. Wait and see.

    But when a CD, especially one with a longstanding incumbent, stays unopposed for a long time in the fall before an election cycle, I start to ask if something is up, because election cycles have gotten longer and more bitter and even in the cheaper media markets, they cost oodles of money. And the longer you wait, the more you have to rush to fundraise. It's really that simple.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2019
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  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I promised that at some point in time, I would start looking at the finances of individual congressional districts, just to see what's up.

    Today, I am looking at CA-01 (Doug LaMalfa, Republican):

    California_US_Congressional_District_1_(since_2013).jpg

    CA-01 is geographically speaking a very large district, covering the Northern part of California and most of the border to Oregon, but no longer touches the West coast. Encompassing a little over 28,000 square miles, the district is - in terms of landmass - the 25th largest of 435 districts in the USA. It also larger than the following 11 US states:

    2016-10-019 CA-01 outlook - landmass comparison to states.png

    To get a good perspective, you could fit either Vermont or New Hampshire inside CA-01 three times over, still with a little bit of landmass to spare.

    In terms of population, the US census 2018 estimate lists the CD as having 711,282 residents. This makes for a population density of 25.3 people per square mile. So, the it's not a densely populated district. Lots of elbow-room out there.

    The racial demographics of the district:
    79.1% white
    12% Latino
    3.1% Asian
    1.7% Black

    This district is considerably whiter than California as a whole.

    Doug LaMalfa was first elected to this district in 2012. Democrat Mike Thompson was his predecessor. Thompson was redistricted to CA-05 following the 2010 census.

    Here Doug LaMalfa's winning margins in CA-01:

    2012: +14.80% (Obama re-election nationally, Obama wins California as well by 23 points, but Romney wins CA-01 by +16)
    2014: +22.06% (GOP mid-term wave)
    2016: +18.10% (Trump election nationally, Clinton wins California by +30 points, Trump won in CA-01 by +20)
    2018: +9.77% (DEM mid-term wave)

    Since margins are better understood in context, the parenthetic information from me.

    LaMalfa's Democratic opppent in 2018 was Democrat Audrey Denney and by all looks of it, she is going to be his opponent again in 2020.

    So, let's look at the current finances. Here the current FEC numbers for 2020 for CA-01:

    2016-10-019 CA-01 outlook.png

    We can see that, at the current time, Denney has raked in about $160,000 more than the incumbent, but when you subtract the disbursements, she's only about $64,600 ahead of him. So, in terms of current $$$ warchest, they are pretty much tied. Usually, that would be bad news for an incumbent, who generally has lots more money to fight a re-election campaign. The advantage for him: he has no real Republican challenger, but then again, neither does Denney. Jason Cienkus (D) is also in the race, but has reported ZERO dollars. And Singh Sagoo has (yes, this is strange) his name in the hat as a Republican for both CA-01 and the Senate, but for the year 2022, not 2020. So, in spite of the look of 4 candidates for CA-01, there are, for all intents and purposes, just 2.

    Big advantage for LaMalfa: the incumbency. Big advantage for Denney: she already has name recognition and scored the best % as a Democrat since the District was redrawn following the 2010 census. So, essentially, the fight between the two can pick-up where it left in November, 2018.

    As for La Malfa, for a guy who's winning margin was cut almost in half between 2016 and 2018 and who will most likely have the same challenger in 2020 as he had in 2018, and with the assumption that this will be a Trump re-election cycle (meaning, Trump's name will be on the ballot, at least nationally, perhaps not in California), it is my strong opinion that a CD like CA-01 should be polled more often than people think necessary, because it is in many ways a "canary in the coal mine". Were CA-01 polling to show an extremely close race here, than that has disastrous implications for Republicans and Trump nationally.

    Now, out of fairness vis-a-vis finances, here the end FEC report from 2018:

    2016-10-019 CA-01 outlook - rückblick auf 2018.png

    Now, that is interesting. At the end of the day in 2018, Denney and La Malfa were essentially tied in fundraising for that race, but she was about $63,000 up on him. She disbursed most all of her funds, while he went about 61,000 into the red (all allowed by the FEC, must be paid back at a later date). So, parity in fundraising doesn't guarantee a victory for a challenger at all, but it does mean that she is a SERIOUS challenger, and when you consider that Doug LaMalfa is one of only 7 Republicans to survive the 2018 wave in California (before 2018, they had 14 seats, nöööö) and his winning margin was the 5th best (or 3rd worst), if another wave hits, his seat becomes more than competitive.

    So, for the reasons I've listed, CA-01 (alongside CA-21) go on my "canary in a coal mine" list.

    Here for further context, La Malfa's finances for 2014 and 2012 as well:
    2016-10-019 CA-01 outlook - rückblick auf 2014.png
    2016-10-019 CA-01 outlook - rückblick auf 2010.png



    -Stat
     
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  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    On a relatively quiet Sunday in October of 2019, it's probably a good time to look at the races that are OPEN races, meaning that the incumbent from the party that won the seat in the cycle before will not be on the ballot for the next cycle. Currently, there are 28 (6.4% of all seats in the HOR) that are officially OPEN:

    2016-10-020 OPEN races as of today 001.png

    Those 28 seats are coming from the states of: AL (2), CA (2), FL (1), GA (1), IL (1), IN (1), IA (1), KS (1), MD (1), MA (1), MI (2), MT (1), NM (1), NY (3), TX (6), UT (1) and WI (2).

    These open races are overwhelmingly a result of retirements. That's 26 of these 28. 5 of those retirements are because the incumbent is now running for higher office (AL-01, KS-01, MA-04, MT-AL and NM-03). All but one of those retirements is set for the end of the current term. In WI-07, the incumbent resigned and then left office on September 23, 2019, making that seat VACANT.

    A second race is open and currently VACANT due to the death of a member of Congress (MD-07).
    A third race is open and currently VACANT because the incumbent was forced to leave office due to his guilt in a financial scandal (NY-27).

    Of the 28 OPEN seats, 8 are currently D-held seats, 19 are currently R-held seats and 1 seat (MI-03) was held by an R-incumbent, who, after declaring himself for the impeachment of Pres. Donald Trump, then left the Republican party and declared himself as an Independent (I). So, although Justin Amash is still on the ballot for 2020 for MI-03 and is the current incumbent, he will not be on the ballot on the Republican Party line and so therefore, the race is still technically OPEN. That beings said, the tilt of his district is still currently very strongly Republican.

    One cannot help but notice that 6 OPEN seats are in Texas, which is no doubt going to be a hotbed of political activity in 2020.

    Traditionally, a lot of OPEN seats due to retirements leads to instability for the party that has the higher number of OPEN seats, but that is not really the truth. It really depends upon WHICH seats are OPEN. For instance, both seats currently OPEN in Alabama are not considered even remotely competitive. Likewise, in MA-04, where a Kennedy is now running for the Senate, that seat is not even remotely competitive. If you look in column K, you will see the winning margin from 2018 and can make your own judgements.

    For the three seats that are vacant, I have not yet removed the names of the former office holders, mostly out of respect for Elijah Cummings. It just doesn't feel right to remove his name until he has been paid the last respects. Perhaps soon I will list the seat as "VACANT" but list the former office-holder in the comments column. But that is just a cosmetic detail, one that can be clarified later.

    Here the same table of those 28 seats, in ascending chronological order:

    2016-10-020 OPEN races as of today 002 (chronological).png

    Two years ago, there was a large spate of Republican retirements following Thanksgiving. So, I will be interested to see what happens this time around.
    Two years ago, there were circa 40 GOP retirements, when all was said and done. This time around, as of October 20th, 2019, there are already 20 GOP retirements. Yes, there are also 8 DEM retirements, we should not forget this.

    I will be updating this list as necessary. Also you will find this as a new table in the large online EXCEL data at Google Docs:

    2016-10-020 OPEN races as of today 002 -table tab.png

    -Stat
     
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  11. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    When I started this thread, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR.

    Today, October 20th, 2018, there are now 1,647.

    2019-10-021 HOR announced candidates 001.png
    2019-10-021 HOR announced candidates 002.png

    Here the races with the most declared candidates. There are 18 races with 9 candidates or more, for a total of 212 candidates.

    2019-10-021 HOR announced candidates - top 18.png
     
  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    When I started this thread, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR. Yesterday, October 21st, 2019 (which I erroneously notated as October 20th) there were 1,647.

    Today, October 22nd, 2019, there are now 1,660 such declared candidates:

    2019-10-022 US HOR declared candidates 001.png 2019-10-022 US HOR declared candidates 002.png

    That makes for 355 candidates added to the mix since this thread was created 2 months ago. The gender balance has remained at M 70 / F 30, exactly as it has been the entire time.

    Of those 1,660 declared candidates, just under 50% of them all come from the top 6 states, and 80% of them all come from the top 20 states (numerically speaking, says nothing about quality of campaigns or finances):

    2019-10-022 US HOR declared candidates 004 - the top states.png

    3 CDs went from unchallenged (shutouts) to being no longer unchallenged: CA-09, OR-01, PA-13.

    There are currently 140 unchallenged seats:
    51 R-shutouts (where no Democrat has announced for the primaries in those CDs at all)
    81 D-shutouts (where no Republican has announced for the primaries in those CDs at all)
    8 total-shutouts (where neither a Republican nor a Democrat has announced for the primaries in those CDs at all). Here are those 8 seats:

    2019-10-022 US HOR declared candidates 003 - the 8.png

    As you can see, those 8 seats are likely not even remotely competitive. At some point in time, the incumbent will surely declare. You will notice that all 8 are relatively new congressmen (from the class of 2013 onward).

    Back to the number 355 from above. This coming Friday, October 25th, 2019, I will do a look back to 2017 and compare the growth rates; on that Friday, there were 1,726 candidates. We will see how many candidates are declared by this coming Friday. Also, on New Years Eve 2017 going into 2018, for the 2018 mid-term elections, we were just 1972 candidates, so back then, from that Friday in October until the end of the year, we grew 246 candidates, a great number of them right around Thanksgiving. That makes sense. Thanksgiving is a time when families come together and people who have been mulling a run for public office as for input from their loved ones and so on. But much longer after the beginning of the New Year, time simply runs out for people to raise enough funds to wage an effective campaign.

    So, purely from a numbers perspective, irregardless of ideology, it's really fascinating to compare the numbers as they roll in. My eyes are seeing tendencies in certain states - it's really fascinating to watch it all happen.

    Those are the current HOR numbers.

    -Stat
     
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  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    When I began this thread, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR.
    Two days ago, on October 22nd, 2019, there were 1,660 such candidates.
    As of today, October 24th, 2019, there are 1,683:

    2019-10-024 US HOR declared candidates 001.png 2019-10-024 US HOR declared candidates 002.png

    The gender balance remains stable at 70 M / 30 F, as it has been the entire time.
    The number of D and R candidates is almost even.

    Here the hottest races, in terms of sheer numbers of candidates, in descending order. The hottest race (NM-03) now has 18 candidates:

    2019-10-024 US HOR declared candidates 003.png



    Tomorrow, Friday, October 25th, 2019, I will be doing a flashback to 2017.
     
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  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    When I began this thread, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR.
    Yesterday,October 24th, 2019, there were 1,683 such candidates.
    As of today, Friday, October 25th, 2019, there are now 1,689:

    2019-10-025 US HOR declared candidates 001.png 2019-10-025 US HOR declared candidates 002.png

    The gender balance remains stable at 70 M / 30 F, as it has been the entire time.
    The number of D and R candidates is almost even: D=805, R=777.

    Two formerly unopposed seats are no longer so: OK-01 now has a Democratic challenger, and NM-01 now has a Republican challenger, making the total number of currently unopposed seats 138 (50 R-shutouts with no D challenger, 8 complete shutouts with no challenger from any major political party, and 80 D-shutouts with no R challenger).

    With Tulsi Gabbard's (HI-02) video announcement over Twitter and Co. that she would not be running for re-election in her CD, but rather, only running for POTUS, this makes her seat the 29th seat thus far to become an open seat because of retirement, resignation or death while in office:

    2019-10-025 US HOR declared candidates 003 (retirements usw).png

    So, from the time I began tracking these candidates on August 21st, 2019, 384 candidates, just shy of +400, have been added to the list of declared candidates. Now, a look back to exactly this Friday in 2017. Note my commentary under the tables I provided on that day:

    2019-10-025 US HOR declared candidates - rückblick auf Freitag 2017-10-027.png


    In 2017, I started tracking candidates on August 7th. This time around I started 2 weeks later, on August 21st, and yet, the growth has been almost identical: +396 in 2017 and right now, in this year, +384. Were I to keep the time frame exactly as it was, then the numbers from two weeks from today would be the exact comparison; that is however, only a small side issue. The point is that the candidate interest in this year is growing just as it was growing in 2017 going into 2018. That point is now mathematically proveable.

    Once again, you can find all of the data HERE.

    -Stat
     
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  15. Market Junkie

    Market Junkie Well-Known Member

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  16. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    This is indeed fascinating to watch and very relevant to this thread, imo, for the districts as they will *finally* be drawn in NC will have a direct bearing on the R to D balance in this state in the 2020 elections.

    Thanks for sharing the info.
     
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  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    What a tangled web of years we weave when Republicans have fallen in love with tarriffs and Democrats have fallen in love with (*checks note*) the 10th amendment.....

    ....I searched and searched and searched and now believe to have found the cause of this outer-space shift of events:

     
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  19. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    LOL!

    The Law of Unintended Consequences seems to target the GOP these days. Little wonder that they are always complaining about "bad government" because they are incapable of providing "good" government when they are in power.
     
  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    When I started this thread on August 21st, 2019, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US HOR. Today, Sunday, November 3rd, 2019, just about 2.5 months later, there are now 1,756 such candidates:

    2019-11-003 US HOR declared candidates 001.png 2019-11-003 US HOR declared candidates 002.png

    That makes for +451 new candidates since I started this thread. The D and R candidates are almost completely even; the D candidates, in terms of sheer numbers, have only a +1,1% advantage over the Rs. However, in a cycle where the Rs are the minority party in the US HOR, there should be many, many more R candidates than D candidates right now. That alone says something about lack of energy among Republicans.

    In terms of gender balance, the numbers still remain quite stable, but for the first time, M70/F30 has moved more toward M71/F29. The change is subtle and small, but still worth noting.

    In the last five days, there many many change in 60HOR seats: AL-01, AL-02, AZ-02, AZ-03, AR-03, AR-04, CA-08, CA-25, CA-29, CA-30, CA-39, CA-45, CA-52, FL-11, FL-17, FL-18, FL-19, FL-21, FL-22, FL-25, FL-27, GA-09, GA-12, ID-01, IL-15, IL-17, IL-18, IN-03, IN-05, IN-06, IN-08, LA-05, MD-06, MD-07, MD-07 spec, MA-06 (but no numeric change), MI-10, MI-11, MI-14, MO-03, NV-01, NY-11, NY-16, NY-17, NY-20, NC-03, NC-11, OH-11, OH-13, OK-04, OR-02, PA-02, PA-17, TX-13, TX-17, TX-22, TX-31, TX-36, VA-02, WI-03

    In CA-25, Rep. Katie Hill resigned in the middle of a revenge porn scandal caused by Republican operatives. At the same time, convicted felon and notorious "coffee boy" George Papadopolous, has entered the race in CA-25 as a Republican. The sad irony of this all cannot be overlooked.

    When I started tracking the unopposed seats, there were circa 180. As of today, there are 127, broken down as follows:

    2019-11-003 US HOR declared candidates 003 C.png
    8 seats where no candidate of either party has declared at all. This will surely change by the New Year.

    2019-11-003 US HOR declared candidates 003 A.png
    2019-11-003 US HOR declared candidates 003 B.png
    44 seats where no Democrat has declared a candidacy, also known as "R-shutouts".

    2019-11-003 US HOR declared candidates 003 D.png
    2019-11-003 US HOR declared candidates 003 E.png
    2019-11-003 US HOR declared candidates 003 F.png
    76 seats where no Republican has declared a candidacy, also known as "D-shutouts".

    I all three cases above, these numbers are sure so change radically when the primaries are underway, but as you will note, there are considerably more D-shutouts and R-shutouts at the current time, and for the minority Party, in this case, the Rs, it should actually be the other way around.

    The hottest races, numerically speaking:
    2019-11-003 US HOR declared candidates 004.png
    TX-22 has overtaken NM-03 as the hottest race of all, where 19 candidates have thrown their hats into the ring. That's a total of 323 candidates (slightly under 1/5th of all candidates) from the 28 hottest CDs, where there are 9 or more candidates.

    And the most important detail of all of this for today is that up until now, the number of declared candidates in 2019 for 2020 had lagged behind the number of declared candidates in 2017 for 2018 at the same junctures in time, but as of today, it is different. Remember, as of today, November 3rd, 2019, there are 1,756 declared candidates. Here a look back at November 3rd, 2017, exactly 2 years and 2 days ago:

    2019-11-003 US HOR declared candidates 005 Rückblick auf 2017.png

    So, for the first time in this cycle, the number of House candidates for 2020 has surpassed the number of candidates for the House in 2018, when you compare time-juncture to time juncture. The next entry of mine in 2017 was on November 20th, so I will be comparing again in a little over 2 weeks.

    Again, just to remind, the number of candidates says absolutely nothing about the quality of the races, the aptititude or abilities of the candidates or their financial warchests, but it DOES measure interest, for declaring a candidacy takes time, energy, start money and a huge amount of hard work.

    So, those are the current stats in the 2020 race for the HOR.


    PS: addendum - a special election for MD-07 has been called: filing deadline = 11/20/2019, Primary elections = 02/02/2020, special general election = 04/28/2020. The date of the special general election for MD-08 is the same date as the primary elections for 2020.
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2019
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  21. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

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    Almost all of the pink Democrats in Trump districts are no longer viable - about 30 seats.
     
  22. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Based on what extremist rightwing disinformation source?
     
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  23. Not The Guardian

    Not The Guardian Well-Known Member

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    I'm so glad to see you still doing this stuff, Stat!
     
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  24. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

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    You think Democrat seats in Trump congressional districts are safe?
    Who told you that?
    Nate Silver? ;-)
     
  25. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Failure to provide a credible source upon request duly noted FTR and your credibility will be impacted as is appropriate.
     
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