2020 HOR elections

First, it is "Democratic" and not "Democrat" seats. The name of the party is the Democratic Party, not the "Democrat" Party. In fact, use of "Democrat" Party was and still is an intended perjorative designed to slight an entire group of people. So, get your terminology right. Or learn to spell. Or maybe, both.

Second, feel free to provide actual facts to back up your statements. I do. Can you, too?

Don't worry, I've bookmarked your postings and when Congressional District polling starts coming in, I will surely be letting you know about it.

And btw, Nate Silvers polling aggregates and analysis of the competitive districts in 2018 was absolutely spot on. Furthermore, Nate Silver has hardly spoking about 2020 congressional districts - yet.

But if you are really interested in actual information and not just spouting a bunch of nonsense off at the mouth, here are two threads I created over at my blog right before (and just a couple of hours after) the 2018 mid-term elections, and it proves that the CD polling and the analyses were absolutely spot-on, eerily good:

https://statistikhengstswelt.blogspot.com/2018/10/how-things-are-shaping-up-for-hor-mid.html

https://statistikhengstswelt.blogspot.com/2018/11/538s-end-calculations-for-2018-mid-term.html

Best to you, hope you are well and prospering,

Stat

 

The DP has never been democratic. I bet you have noticed.

 

LOL! You need a source to tell you that Democrat pols in Trump congressional districts are vulnerable?

 

and yet, democratic does not mean democracy, it's just a name like 'john' or amazon or pizza... they chose the name 'democratic' to fool/trick/bamboozle immigrants & the unwitting...

 

And Bernies Sanders.

 

About three weeks ago, I promised to start looking at finances in the congressional elections. Now is a good time to start with a state that is shaping up as a battleground on the senatorial and presidential level, but may or may not end up being a sleeper on the HOR level.

Here the FEC reports for the 9 congressional districts from the great state of Arizona. Some comments after the screenshots:





First, notice that in AZ, at this time, none of the races are open races, they are all incumbent races. Now, this of course could change, but it's looking more and more as if there will be 9 solid incumbent races in AZ on the HOR level come November 2020.

Second, when you look at the finances, don't forget to at least mentally subtract the disbursements from the total, and that will give the current COH (cash on hand) for that candidate. You will see that in all 9 CDs, as is usually the case, the incumbents have far more $$$ in their warchests than any possible opponent from the other side.

Third, not all CDs are created equally when it comes to how expensive the area media-market is. CDs more in rural areas tend to require somewhat less $$$ in order to wage an effective campaign, whereas CDs in heavy urban areas are decidely more expensive across the board.

When you look at the challenger side and see a bunch of people who as of September 30th, 2019, have not reported any funding at all with the FEC (which is required by law), this means that those people are very likely broke, unless of course they are planning to finance their campaigns from their own private accounts. So, although a thick campaign account in no way guarantees a primary win, it certainly can help. And candidates with extremely small warchests, once they start winning, can end up with large financial warchests. Success tends to breed success. Both broke is broke is broke. Multiply broke by broke and you still have: broke.

Of course, eyes will be on AZ-02, which flipped red in 2014 and then back to blue in 2018. Ann Kirkpatrick is also a fine example of a pol who lost somewhere along the way and came back to win again.

Also, eyes will be on AZ-07 and AZ-08 to see if they will be competitive two-person races or maybe shutouts. In 2014, 2016 and 2018, AZ-07 (Ruben Gallego) was a D-shutout CD, whereas AZ-08 was an R-shutout in 2014. If you look at the current finances for AZ-07, of two potential Republican challengers to Ruben Gallego, Chris Hindle is broke and Josh Harnett has all of $635.00 to spend on a campaign. Conversely, against Freshman Republican Debbie Lesko in AZ-08, Democrat Michael Muscato only has circa $22,000.00 to spend. That won't go far.

In AZ-06, Republican incumbent Dave Schweikert has the far larger total, but his disbursements are also huge, leaving him with $99,596, whereas his closest D competitor, Stephanie Rimmer, currently has $86,682 COH, so the two candidates are currently more evenly matched than is readily apparent to see. Of all the candidates for the HOR in AZ, Tom O'Halleran (D, AZ-01) is in the best shape.

And yes there really is an Independent candidate in AZ-09 with a nobility name "Irina Baroness von Behr". LOL LOL LOL

Again, good finances do not guarantee a win, but broke finances guarantee a loss. We will soon be entering the "separate the wheat from the chaff" phase of this campaign.

I do think that Arizona is a good place to start this time around. The state is growing in population and is also becoming somewhat more diverse.

-Stat

 

Well, you can either learn to spell or not to spell, that is your choice. Adults learn to spell things correctly. It's part of being serious adults. So, bye bye

 

Moving the goalposts again duly noted and ignored for obvious reasons.

 

What "goalposts"?

Here, PBS takes note of the obvious:

You really need a source to tell you that Democrat pols in Trump congressional districts are vulnerable?

"James Zecca helped rally Trump backers in front of the school before going inside for Brindisi's meeting.
James Zecca:

He's in a real pickle here, because, if he votes to impeach, he's going to lose all of the people that supported Trump. And if he doesn't vote to impeach, he's going to lose his radical left-wing socialists.

(LAUGHTER)"
PBS, House Democrats in Trump districts tread delicately on impeachment, By — John Yang, Oct 14, 2019.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/house-democrats-in-trump-districts-tread-delicately-on-impeachment

 

This was your original baseless allegation that you are unable to substantiate;

Now you are PRETENDING that you alleged that they are ONLY VULNERABLE instead.

Words have MEANINGS!

You MOVED the goalposts!

 

Indeed.

 

When I began this thread on August 21, 2019, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR. Last Sunday, November 3, 2019, I reported 1,756 such candidates. I had combed the Green Papers data for all 435 seats to make sure the numbers were correct and so I had already picked up the changes they reported on Monday. Between Monday and today, November 5, 2019, there are now 1,766 declared candidates for the US HOR.



On Sunday, there were 123 unopposed races. Now there are 122. In CO-02, incumbent Democrat Joe Neguse now has a challenger.

The M/F balance remains at between 70/30 and 71/29.

My next benchmark in the year 2017 was November 20th:


As you can see, with circa 2 weeks to go in order to be at the same time juncture as in 2017, we are currently at 1,766 candidates, just 35 shy of where we were then.

I want to take a hard look at all current US Representatives from the class of 1996 and older:





These are the 52 members of congress who will, as of January 3, 2021, served between 24-48 years in congress with Don Young (R-AK-AL) being currently the longest serving member of congress. The seats that I have highlighted in red are seats that are not yet open, but where there is heightened interest, numerically speaking, for those seats, and mostly within the party currently in power. For instance, in NY-16, which is currently unopposed, Democratic incumbent Eliot Engel has 5 challengers for the primary. As of January 2, 2021, Mr. Engel will have served 32 years in Congress and is no spring chicken. In NJ-04, the only CD of the 12 in New Jersey held by a Republican, 5 Democrats are lined up for a primary to go against Chris Smith, who was elected in 1980, which means that as of January 3, 2021, he will have served 40 years. Now, I am not saying that all of these people in the CDs I highlighted are going to resign or lose the next election, but I am saying that interest in their districts is heightened and often, on the ground, in those districts, people know things that we do not know yet. Some of those names are people who are NOT going to resign, but because of the impeachment proceedings, have become lightning rods for the other side. There are probably some seats since 1998 where people are going to resign and currently, there is little interest in the seat. We've seen this happen 6 times now in Texas, which is facing a "Texodus" at current.

My other point is: when we are dealing with long-serving members of the US-Congress, regardless of party, we should not forget that at some point in time, age and health really DO play a role. Earl Blumenauer (OR-03) was elected in a special election in 1996 before the November general election, so he will have served more than 24 years in Congress come January 2021. He won his latest re-election in Oregon by +52.78% in 2018, his seat is as blue as blue can get. He can retire if he wants and seek out quieter pastures, and his seat is 100% likely to remain in Democratic hands. Don Young, on the other hand, just held on to his at-large seat in Alaska in 2018, by +6.58%, and his likely challenger Alyse Galvin, who was also his challenger in 2018, now has a larger financial warchest than he. He is in trouble, and he knows it. At this sage age, retirement become a real possibility for the fellow.

Again, I am not saying that these people are going to retire and indeed, of the 31 OPEN seats to day, only 7 of them are from members of congress who were elected in the 90s or earlier, but my gut tells me that a certain number of older members of Congress, seeing the mud-and-filth fight of their lives in front of them, are going to retire. This applies to both parties, because age and illness know no particular political party.

And then there will be surprises like tragedy in the family, a sex or financial scandal (see: CA-50) or, G-d forbid, death while in office. So, I am pretty sure that the number of OPEN seats will rise considerably in the next 2 months.

-Stat

 

When I began this thread on August 21, 2019, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR. As of Tuesday, November 5, 2019, there were 1,766 such candidates. As of today, Thursday, November 7, 2019, there are now 1,786 declared candidates.



There were changes in: AL-02, CA-25, FL-07, FL-19, GA-13, IL-08, IN-01, MD-01, MD-07, MI-13, MN-05, NV-03, NJ-04, OH-01, OH-12, OR-02, TX-02, TX-23, TX-24, TX-30 and UT-04. (underlined = OPEN race).

With the retirement of Pete Visclosky in IN-01, it has now become an open seat. Literally on the same day that he declared, another Democratic male announced his candidacy for the seat, so numerically, there has been no change in IN-01; it is still a D-shutout (no R has declared yet), but it is now of course an open race. Viscloski won in 2018 by +30.19%. Visclosky, who is now 70 years old, is from the class of 1984, which means that as of January 3, 2021, he will have served in Congress for 36 years and is currently the 8th longest serving member of congress, after Don Young (AK-AL), Jim Sensenbrenner (WI-05), Chris Smith (NJ-04), Hal Rogers (KY-05), Steny Hoyer (MD-05), Marcia Kaptur (OH-09) and Frank Lucas (OK-03). Just in my last posting from November 5th, I went through a listing of members of congress from the class of 1996 or older.

Three seats that were unopposed now have a challenger from the other party: AL-02, GA-13 and MI-13.

-Stat

 

"The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their proper names."
The Analects by Confucius
​

I regard this difficulty with nomenclature a personal deficiency of one sort or another.

When people start substituting nouns for adjectives (E,g., referring to the "Jew" religion, the "Jew" vote, a "Jew" politician, etc. rather than using the proper adjectival form, "Jewish") it betokens an unfortunate grammatical inadequacy or a defect of far greater concern.

It has not metastasized throughout the Republic Party, but is detected there in increasing numbers.

 

When I began this thread on August 21, 2019, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR. As of Friday, November 8, 2019, there were 1,786 such candidates. As of today, Tuesday, November 12, 2019, there are now 1,808 declared candidates:




Amazingly, even at this stage in the game, the Democrats still have more candidates in the game than the Republicans, in spite of the fact that the Republicans are the minority party in the HOR; usually the minority party wants to claw it's way back to the majority. Two years ago, at this stage in the game, the D candidates had a wide margin of the R candidates in terms of sheer numbers.

The gender balance has been roughly M 70 / F 30 the entire time.

There were changes in the following 27 CDs: AL-02, AL-03, AL-04, AL-07, AZ-09, CA-15, CA-25, CA-28, CA-30, CA-52, FL-01, FL-20, FL-22, FL-24, GA-11, IL-15, MD-07, NJ-03, NY-02, NY-27, NC-11, OH-08, TX-13, TX-32, VA-01, WA-06 and WI-02.

There was one retirement: Peter King (R-NY-02). His retirement makes for the 34th officially OPEN race for 2020 in the HOR. Peter King came in with the congressional class of 1992 (sworn-in January 1993), which means that he will have served 28 contiguous years in the HOR as of January, 2021.

Four CDs that were unopposed races until now are no longer unopposed: AL-03, OH-08, WA-06 and WI-02.

The candidate filing deadline for Alabama has now come and gone, which means that the slate of candidates should not change. To this effect, I have shaded the CDs for this state in a very light grey:



Should a candidate withdraw from a race after the Alabama deadline, I am not sure how they handle it, but I am very sure that no new candidates are going to be allowed in after the deadline. This means that the seats in AL-04, AL-05 and AL-07 will remain unopposed races, in this case, 2 Republican shut-outs and 1 Democratic shut-out. Both AL-04 and AL-05 were shutouts in 2014, but not in 2018. AL-07 was a shutout in both 2014 and 2018, and of course now for 2020.

On November 20th, 2017, almost 2 years ago, the list had reached 1,801 candidates (see: two postings above this one). Here on November 12th, 2019, we have already surpassed that benchline.

It's going to be a VERY busy primary season for congressional candidates in 2020.

-Stat

 

On 21.08.2019, when I started this thread, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR. The last time I reported on this thread (5 days ago), we were at 1,808 such candidates.

Today, 17.11.2019, almost 3 months afterward, there are now 1,848 such candidates:

Here again the data at google docs.




The D-candidates maintain a slight advantage in terms of sheer numbers. The gender balance has been mostly M 70 / F 30, it has slowly advanced to M 70.5 / F 29.5.

There were changes in the following 35 CDS: AZ-05, AR-02, AR-04, CA-04, CA-09, CA-25, CA-28, CA-34, CA-37, CA-45, CA-51, FL-04, FL-07, FL-19, IL-03, IL-07, IL-17, IN-01, KY-06, MD-07, MA-08, MI-07, MI-08, MI-14, MN-08, MO-07, NV-02, NY-02, NY-17, OR-02, TN-05, TX-17, TX-18, TX-22, TX-23, VA-02

Four seats that until now had been unopposed now have a challenger from the other major political party: AR-02, CA-34, IL-07, MO-07.

That now puts us at 115 unchallenged races:
8 seats where literally no one from the two major political parties has declared yet.
39 seats where there is no D-challenger, currently making those seats R-shutouts.
68 seats where there is no R-challenger, currently making those seats D-shutouts.

There are now 24 seats with 10 or more candidates in the running for each of those seats, making for 330 of those 1848, or 17.9% of all candidates.



Almost exactly one-half of all candidates from from the top 6 numeric states: CA, TX, FL, NY, IL and MI. And almost exactly 3/4 of all candidates come from the top 16 states, so the other 34 states are spread pretty thinly in numerical terms:



Of course, sheer numbers, as I have indicated a number of times, do not indicate quality or financial well-being of any one specific campaign.

But the interest in congressional seats, when you compare it to November 20th, 2017, has now topped the mid-term cycle at this juncture in the process.

So, those are the current, HOR stats.

-Stat

 

Gov. Gavin Newsome (D-CA) has set the date for the special election to fill the vacancy in CA-25. It will be on March 3rd, 2020, the same day as the Jungle primary for the entire state for all offices. So, this means that officially, the race to fill CA-25 until the November General election will also be a jungle primary and if no candidate comes over 50%, then the runoff election (in essence, according to CA "rules", the GE to fill this vacancy) will be on May 12th, 2020.

This means that voters in CA-25 will be voting in two primaries for that seat on March 3rd. There are currently 14 entries for both races combined, but only 12 people, as two names are duplicated between the 2 candidate lists. Right now, only 2 Democrats have filed for the special primary to fill the vacancy, whereas 6 Republicans and 6 Democrats have lined up for the primary for the November 3rd General election.

Democrat Katie Hill, who resigned on October 27th, 2019, flipped this seat from Red to Blue in the 2018 mid-term elections, and she won it by almost 9 points (+8.73%), so the race wasn't even a narrow win. it was close to a landslide win. Now, it's entirely possible that the Republicans will simply wait out the primary to fill the vacancy and concentrate only on primary for general election in 2020. Candidates have until December 10th, 2019 to file and until January 9th, 2020 to officially announce their candidacy for the special election, so this can all change mightily. Cenk Ugyur, from the far left ("The Young Turks") has also filed to run in both primaries, so we are seeing a wild mix of far-left, far-right and lots of stuff in between. Since CA-25 is smack in the middle of the Los Angeles media market (the CD straddles Los Angeles and Ventura counties), this means that it will be an expensive race for those who make it to the GE.

 

On 21.08.2019, when I started this thread, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR. The last time I reported on this thread (17.11.2019), we were at 1,848 such candidates.

Today, 19.11.2019, 3 months afterward, there are now 1,860 such candidates:

Here again the data at google docs.



As was the case two days ago, the Ds still have a slight edge over the Rs in terms of declared candidacy. 2 years ago today, when the Ds were the minority party, they had a +26.7 point edge on the Rs in declared candidates. This time, with the Rs as the minority party, we do not see the same interest in reclaiming the HOR as we saw with the Ds at this juncture in time going into the 2018 midterms.

The gender balance remains as it has been the entire time, roughly M 70 / F 30.

There were changes in the following 10 CDs: AZ-06, CA-53, FL-23, GA-07, ID-01, MD-07, NJ-08, NY-17, VA-07 and WI-04.
One CD that was unopposed until this time now has a challenger from the other major party: ID-01.

Of the +12 candidates added to the list since 17.11, 6 of them are in the hottest 24 CDs, which all have at least 10 or more candidates in the running:




Today, I want to focus on the older congressional classes, something I did exactly 14 days ago, on 05.11.2019:



Those are the 52 seats with Representatives from the class of 1998 back to 1978, which means that as of 03.01.2021, those reps will have served between 22-42 years in the HOR. Out of those 52 seats, 7 are open due to retirement. Actually, it's 8 when you include MD-07, where Elijah Cummings died one month ago. There are also two other seats where I have "OPEN" in italics. Those are seats where the current incumbent has not yet declared a candidacy but also not retired, and now, in the month of November, we are getting close to crunch time. Those two seats are TX-30 and TX-18. I have then highlighted a number of non-open seats in green where there is a decidedly heightened number of candidates, more often than not on the incumbent side. For instance, in NY-16, which is currently a D-shutout (unopposed, no R candidate yet), incumbent Eliot Engel has 5 competitors for the D-nomination. He won his seat in 2018 by almost 100%, which means quite literally that he is untouchable. Is there news in the wind that Engel is going to retire soon? I have no idea, but the fact that so many other Democrats are chasing a longstanding incumbent's tail is usually telling in and of itself. In CA-42, which Republican Ken Calvert won by +13 in 2018, 3 Ds and another R are lined up against him. Calvert will be 67 going on 68 come January 3, 2021, he is extremely overweight and in spite of being an evangelical Christian, was involved in at least one very brisant scandal with a hooker in his car, which did not please his wife at all. Telling about Ken Calvert is that he has never received choice House committee assignments, which is probably why many people know almost nothing of him. If there was a Republican from a state where the Rs are already in a hyperminority, on top of that a Republican who hardly gets attention in the HOR, one who is a perfect candidate for a heart attack and smart enough to realize that most likely, his party is going to remain the minority party in 2021, then that Republican is Ken Calvert. My money is on him retiring before January.

But there are lots of Democrats from those older classes, any number of whom could also retire. They mostly come from extremely safe districts, so wait and see.

And on an interesting side-note, for some reason, Jim Sensenbrenner's retirement in WI-05 is not exactly bringing candidates out of the woodwork. There are exactly 2 candidates declared for this seat, one D and one R. Fun time in Wisconsin!

Please also notice that in KY-05, Hal Roger's seat (class of 1980, he came into Congress with Mitch McConnell), literally no candidate from any of the two major parties has entered into the race. Roger's declared early in the 2018 midterms. Come January 3, 2021, Rogers will be 83 years old. He and McConnell are currently the longest serving Kentucky Republicans ever elected to public office. Rogers serves on two high-powered committees. I will be fascinated to see if he really runs this time around, or not. Geographically, today's KY-05 is ancestrally very Republican territory, all the way back to the days of Abraham Lincoln, but it was swingy for a while.

-Stat

 

On 21.08.2019, when I started this thread, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR. The last time I reported on this thread (19.11.2019), we were at 1,860 such candidates.

Today, 23.11.2019, 3 months afterward, there are now 1,895 such candidates:

Here again the data at google docs.



The D to R edge, in terms of sheer numbers of candidates, actually edged up, from D +1.56% on 19.11.2019, to +2.06% today. The M/F balance remains at between M 70 / F 30 and M 71 / F 29.

There were changes in the following 33 seats: CA-04, CA-07, CA-25, CA-34, CA-53, FL-25, GA-06, IL-15, IL-17, IN-01, IA-02, KY-02, MD-03, MD-05, MD-07, MA-04, MI-03, MI-06, NE-01, NJ-05, NJ-11, NM-01, NM-03, NY-02, NY-13, NC-11, OH-04, OH-08, OH-11, OH-16, TX-16, TX-22, UT-02 and WI-06.

Two of those seats are still unopposed races, only before, they had absolutely no candidate from either party: KY-02, OH-16

It is just a craaazy race for MD-17 since Elijah Cummings unfortunately passed away. There are now 33 candidates in the running for the seat (and the special election). It's gonna be a wild ride there. There are now 25 seats where 10 candidates (or considerably more) have declared:



That's almost 1/5th of all candidates from all 50 states, just in these 25 seats.

The number of unopposed races has changed.

The grand total = 112 currently unopposed seats, as follows:
6 seats with no candidates from any major party (until today, there had been 8 such seats)
38 seats with no Democratic candidates (R-shutouts)
68 seats with no Republican candidates (D-shutouts)

Historical perspective: the next benchmark I recorded in 2017 going into 2018 was on Christmas Eve of that year, showing 1,968 declared candidates:



So, right now, one month earlier than then, we are already only circa 70 candidates behind that number. I would say there is a strong chance we will be over 2,000 declared candidates by Christmas 2019. Wait and see.

-Stat

 

On 21.08.2019, when I started this thread, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR. The last time I reported on this thread (23.11.2019), we were at 1,895 such candidates.

Today, 02.12.209, there are now 1,945 such candidates:


Here again the data at google docs.

That's a jump of 50 candidates over the Thanksgiving week.

There were changes in just under 50 seats: CA-08, CA-09, CA-11, CA-15, CA-25, CA-33, CA-50, CO-03, CO-05, FL-14, FL-15, GA-08, IL-02, IL-05, IL-09, IL-16, IN-01, IN-05, IN-09, KY-02, MD-08, MI-05, MI-08, MI-13, MS-01, NJ-01, NY-01, NY-02, NY-17, NC-05, OH-02, OH-03, OH-10, OH-11, OR-02, TX-05, TX-11, TX-13, TX-14, TX-16, TX-17, TX-18, TX-22, TX-23, TX-32, VA-05, VA-08, VA-09, VA-10

The gender balance remains absolutely stable at just about 70 M / 30 F, where it has been the entire time.

Of the shutout races, 1 race went from no candidates from either party to simply unopposed: MS-01. 3 races are now no longer unopposed: IL-05, NC-05 (Inc. Virginia Foxx has finally declared) and OH-02.

This moves us down to 109 currently uncontested (shutout) races.

There are 5 seats where, amazingly, still no one from either party has entered the race yet:

There are 37 seats where no Democrat has entered the race yet (meaning, those seats are currently R-shutouts):



And there are 67 seats where no Republican has entered the race yet (meaning, those seats are currently D-shutouts):



Of the state-wide statistics, 6 states out of 50 have almost exactly 50% of all candidates within the Union right now:



And there are now 28 seats (instead of 24) with 10 or more declared candidates. Here are the 28 "hottest" seats at current:

385, or 20% of all HOR candidates, are to be found in these 28 seats, 18 of which are open races.

So, right now, on December 2, 2019, we are very close to where we were on Christmas Eve 2017, when you compare the sheer numbers of candidates between the 2018 mid-term cycle and the coming 2020 cycle.

Those are the current 2020 HOR candidate statistics.

-Stat

 

On 21.08.2019, when I started this thread, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR. The last time I reported on this thread (02.12.2019), we were at 1,945 such candidates.

Today, 09.12.209, there are now 2,015 such candidates, a growth of 70 candidates in 7 days:

The Male/Female balance remains very stable at between M70/F30 and M71/F29, where it has been the entire time.

There were changes in the following 67 CDs:

CA-01, CA-08, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-25, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-40, CA-43, CA-44, CA-46, CA-47, CA-50, CA-53, FL-03, FL-05, FL-19, FL-21, FL-22, GA-08, GA-14, IL-01, IL-02, IL-03, IL-04, IL-05, IL-07, IL-08, IL-09, IL-10, IL-14, IL-15, IL-17, KY-02, KY-05, ME-02, MI-03, MI-07, MN-04, MN-05, NV-02, NJ-05, NY-01, NY-02, NY-08, NC-02, NC-06, OH-12, SC-05, TX-13, TX-14, TX-17, UT-02, UT-04,VA-07, WA-10, WI-07

The candidate filing deadlines for both CA and IL have now come and gone, which is why you see so many changes for those two states. As of the filing deadlines, 310 candidates have declared in CA (15.4% of all candidates) and 83 such candidates have declared in IL (4.1% of all candidates). Each state has its own procedures for certifying candidates as "good to go" on the ballot, so th those two numbers may actually shrink somewhat before the primaries, but the will not increase. Alongside AL and AR, a total of 4 US states have now had their candidate filing deadlines, at least as far as the HOR is concerned.



Shutout races:
Moved from complete (both party) shutout to unopposed race by one party: KY-05, IL-08
Moved from unopposed to complete (both party) shutout: GA-14
Moved to open due to resignation/retirement: CA-50, GA-14
Unopposed races now with a contender in both major parties: CA-32, CA-38, CA-40, IL-04, KY-02


This means that the list of unopposed races has shrunk to 106 total: 5 complete shutouts (up from 4 one week ago, due to the retirement in GA-14), 37 R shutouts (no D candidate) and 64 D shutouts (no R candidate). This list will continue to shrink with time, but now that the filing deadline has passed in AL, AR, CA and IL, the following CDs are guaranteed to be shutouts: AL-05, AL-06, AL-07, AR-01, CA-18, CA-31 and IL-08.

The number of races with 10 or more candidates (all the way up to 32 candidates in MD-07!) has jumped to 36 (seats):


Those 36 top seats (numerically) account for 483 candidates, or 24% of all candidates.

There were 4 seats that have become OPEN races due to retirements (or a resignation):

Denny Heck (D, WA-10) announced his retirement on 04.12.2019. He won his seat in 2018 by +23.09%.

Tom Graves (R, GA-14) announced his retirement on 05.12.2019. He won his seat in 2018 by +53.00%.

George Holding (R, NC-02) announced his retirement on 06.12.2019 after the courts decided that the GOP gerrymandered Districts in NC were not permissable and the newly drawn NC-02 would probably mean a loss for him. Holding won his seat in 2018 by only +5.46%.

Duncan Hunter (R, CA-50), who just changed his plea on election campaign finance violations from not-guilty to guilty, has announce that he will be retiring after Christmas. Since he was obviously not preparing to resign, the HOR sent him a letter telling him that since he is now a convicted felon, he is no longer eligible to vote on anything in the US HOR. Hunter won his seat in 2018 by +3.43%, a drastically reduced margin in what was once a rock-solid R district in California. This sets up former US HOR Rep Darrell Issa (who represented CA-48 and retired going into the 2018 mid-terms) as the leading GOP candidate for this district, but already the Molotov Cocktails are flying about his carpetbagging. Meanwhile, Ammar Campar-Najjar, who challenged Hunter in 2018 and came close to beating him, is back as the only D on the primary ballot. Technically, CA-50 is not yet vacant and Hunter still (much to the chagrin of the GOP) still carries the title of US REP, but he will have to resign at the latest when he is sitting in a jail cell not far from his wife.

So, we have four very different reasons for retirements (or a resignation). Heck was sick of the bickering. Graves was too. Holding saw the writing on the wall now that his CD would no longer be gerrymandered going into 2020. And Hunter, just like his father, is a crook. Interestingly enough, the first two US Reps to endorse Trump have both been convicted of financial crimes and soon, both of their seats will be vacant.

A VERY exciting election season in the US HOR is shaping up, far more than people may realize. A larger D-wave this time around could easily net the Democratic Party yet another 43 to 50 seats, giving them close to a hypermajority in the HOR.

-Stat

 

On 21.08.2019, when I started this thread, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR. The last time I reported on this thread (09.12.2019), we were 2,015 candidates.

Today, 19.12.2019, there are now 2,082 such candidates, a growth of 67 candidates in 10 days:


For the first time, the number of D and R candidates is almost perfectly even.

In terms of gender, the statistic has remained stable at M 70-71 / F 29-30 the entire time.

There were changes in the following 89 congressional districts: CA-08, CA-21, CA-25, CA-31, CA-36, CA-53, CT-04, FL-03, FL-05, FL-19, FL-22, FL-25, FL-27, GA-06, GA-09, GA-10 GA-11, GA-14, IL-10, IN-04, IN-05, IN-09, KY-03, MN-02, MO-02, NH-01, NH-02, NJ-02, NJ-09, NJ-11, NY-02, NY-09, NY-15, NY-17, NC-02, NC-06, NC-09, NC-10, NC-11, OH-10, OH-13, OH-16, OR-02, PA-07, PA-08, PA-16, PA-18, SC-06, TN-05, TX-01,TX-02, TX-03, TX-05, TX-06, TX-07, TX-08, TX-09, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13,TX-15, TX-16, TX-17, TX-18, TX-19, TX-20, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24,TX-25, TX-26, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, TX-31, TX-32, TX-33, TX-34,TX-35, UT-02, UT-04, VA-03, VA-09, WA-10, WV-02, WI-01, WI-03

You will see that the list is Texas-heavy. This is because the filing deadline for Texas has now come and gone.

Moved to open due to retirement: FL-03 (11.12.2019), NC-06 (17.12.2019), NC-11 (19.12.2019)

Unopposed races now with a contender in both major parties: CA-31, IN-09, MO-02, NH-01, NC-02, TX-19, TX-27, TX-34, VA-09

Filing closed since the last report: TX

Complete list of states where candidate filing has now closed: AL, AR, CA, IL, TX

Speaking of unopposed races, here are the remaining 95 seats that are still officially unopposed:





That makes for 4 races where absolutely no candidate is in the race, 33 races where there is no D-candidate (R-shutout) and 59 seats where there is no R-candidate (D-shutout). When I started to track this issue, there were 170 such seats. When all was said and done in 2018, as of election night, there were 39 such shutout seats (36 D-shutouts, 3 R-shutouts). Wait and see what happens this time.

Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02), officially switched his party affiliation today from Democrat to Republican, so the balance in the US-House of Representatives has shifted slightly.
As of January 3, 2019, it was D 235 / R 199, 1 undecided (NC-09). With four vacancies in the US HOR at current (MD-07, CA-25, NY-27 and WI-07) and Van Drew's party switch, that brings the current balance of power on paper to D 232 / R 198 / 1 IND/ 4 vacant / but 1 of those 198 Rs is ineligible to vote: Duncan Hunter (CA-50). But Duncan Hunter will have to resign, at the latest on the day when he reports to prison. He has promised to retire immediately after Christmas. Because he has been convicted of a federal crime, he is not allowed to vote on anything in the US HOR and was stripped of all committee assignments, so right now, the dude is collecting pay for doing nothing. His holding out is not helping the Republican party, because had he resigned right away as soon as he changed his plea from not-guilty to guilty, this would have given the Gov. of California enough time for people to declared for a special primary and special election for CA-50 (as is happening in CA-25), but now it is probably too late, the filing deadlines had just passed. So, more than likely, Duncan Hunter's greed for money will ensure that this seat will stay vacant until after the 2020 GE. It also means that as soon as he vacates the seat in the next days, the balance of power in the US HOR will be:

D 232 / R 197 / I IND / 5 vacant (NY-27, CA-25, CA-50, MD-07 and WI-07), D +38. This will also mean that the majority threshold in the HOR, which is normally 2018 votes, will be 215 votes. It was "officially" 216 on Wednesday when the the HOR impeached the sitting president.

Fun fact: in NJ-02, now that Van Drew is officially a Republican, Amy Kennedy, wife of former Congressman Patrick Kennedy, is running for the D-nomination for that seat.

So, those are the stats, for now.

 

Thanks for the update, Stat.

I am curious to see how the House races are shaping up for the 2018 seats that were won in Trump 2016 districts in light of which of them voted for the AOI. By my recollection there are 18 of these seats which technically could be enough for the GOP to retake the House. Be interesting to compare the 2016 and 2018 winning margins.

 

I can provide that data. However, fact is that 95% (sometimes, considerably more) of freshmen HOR Representatives win a second term and almost 100% of second-termers win a third term. And those few who lose are on the losing side of a wave. And since a D-wave is once again shaping up for 2020 (and it will be considerably larger than 2018 was), I am not the least bit worried about Ds in seats that once supported Trump, the key word being "once", because it's now been three years since those districts either voted for or against Trump.Instead, it is the Rs who should be deeply worried about losing a bevy of seats that were once solid GOP terrain. Alone, 3 seats are up for grabs in NC, 6 are more than competitive in TX and literally all 7 of the remaining GOP seats in CA are in danger of falling. ALL SEVEN of them. And then there is KS-02, NE-02, IA-04, WA-05, OH-01, OH-12, PA-01 and OR-02. Without even going too deeply into the list, I see at least 26 very solid D pickup possibilities for 2020, and as many as 68. Yepp, 68 R seats may really come into play. Remember, I predicted up to +40 for the Ds in 2018. They got exactly +40 (+43, -3 = +40)

Interesting to note is that even freshman Democrats who barely won in 2018 (Dan McAdams in UT-04, TJ Cox in CA-21, Lucy McBath in GA-06, etc) all voted for impeachment without hesitation or reservation. The only two who voted against both Articles of Impeachment were turncoat Jeff Van Drew (formerly D now R, NJ-02) and Colin Peterson (MN-07), both of whom have said all year long that they would not under any circumstances support impeachment, so, their no-votes were no surprise. Jared Golden (ME-02) voted yes on abuse of power but no on obstruction of Congress. So, Trump's efforts to peel of Ds was totally in vain. Coward and future Independent-Putinpuppet Presidential candidate Gabbi Tulsard (batshit crazy, HI-02) voted "present". Jose Serrano (D, NY-15) missed the vote. He was not there. He is retiring and has Parkinson's disease.

On the R-side retiring John Shimkus (R, IL-15) also missed the vote and of course, convicted felon Duncan Hunter (R, CA-50), who was not allowed to vote because he is a convicted felon and had he had even one respectable bone in his body, he would have resigned the day that he changed his plea from not-guilty to guilty.

So, it was a +33 vote margin for impeachment on Article 1 (yes +7.7%) and it was a +31 vote margin for impeachment on Article 2 (yes +7.2%). It wasn't even close.

 

To condense all this into a sentence. The 2018 elections had consequences, and while they are nibbling at the heels of the GOP now, they will be taking pitbull size bites in their fannies in about a year.