2020 Presidential Election Electoral Endcount: Biden 306 / Trump 232, Biden +74 electors

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Nov 13, 2020.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    In states where the Libertarian Party has candidates in most of that state's congressional districts, for instance, Texas, that can indeed play a role, for instance, a person is willing to vote LIB for the congressional race but decides to either not vote in the presidential or vote major party.
     
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  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    On this day, Joe Biden went over 81 million raw votes cast for the Democratic ticket, his lead over President Trump is now almost +7 million votes, making his winning %margin roughly +4.4%

    There are still 1 million votes left to count, most all of them are still in New York state, Biden will get about 70% of them, so indeed, Biden is headed for about 81.5 million votes, when all is said and done:

    2020-12-002 Biden over 81 million votes.png
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2020
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  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Errors Found in Texas Certification of Votes for President, but Secretary of State Says it is Too Late to Fix Them | Ballot Access News (ballot-access.org)

    Because the text is so short, here all of it in it's entirety, with thanks to Mr. Wingert:

    2020-12-003 this is not true.png

    So, as you can see, and as I have pointed out a number of times on this thread already, mistakes in counting can and do happen. These two mistakes are about two write-in candidates for president whose votes did not make it into the end-tally. I talked to my friend named "snowball in hell" and he told me he's doing better than Carroll and Boddie. I think you get my point.

    What bothers me here is tha the Texas SOS is lying out his ass. A lawsuit is not necessary for the Texas SOS to fix the calculations and send an amended record to the national archivist. He's just being lazy. I just checked Texas election code. There is absolutely nothing in the code forbidding the SOS from making corrections to the record. So apparently, those 2,288 votes won't count. However, since they were not for Donald Trump, he won't care about this kind of negligence.

    The Texas SOS is a Republican.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2020
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    ALASKA - DONALD TRUMP (R) won EV
    2020-12-001 Alaska results.png

    2020-12-001 Alaska results - excel table.png


    Donald Trump's +10.06% winning margin and +36,173 raw-vote margin is less than his 2016 statistic against Hillary Clinton and is also the leanest winning margin for a Republican in this state since all the way back to 1960 (JFK vs. Nixon)

    On the whole, Biden improved the Democratic Party's statistic in this state (over 2016) by 4.7 points, a statistically significant increase. Also, Biden's 42.77% of the statewide popular vote is the highest topline percentage for a D-nominee since Democrat LBJ won the state in 1964. Just 12 years ago, when Sarah Palin was on the R-ticket with John McCain (may he be of blessed memory), McCain won this state by +25%

    How does Trump's Alaska performance match up to the sole AK congressional race:

    2020-12-001 Alaska results - excel table - congressional.png

    As you can see, Don Young (who has held the seat since 1973) did better than Trump. But his Democratic challenger also did better than Biden.

    Fun factoid: when AK and HI were both admitted to the Union in the same year, the conventional wisdom was that AK would be a Democratic state and HI would be a Republican state. Boy, oh boy, were the pundits wrong in 1960.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2020
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    ARIZONA - Joe Biden (D) won 11 EV
    DEMOCRATIC PICK-UP over 2016
    2020-12-001 Arizona results.png

    2020-12-001 Arizona results - excel table.png


    Joe Biden's +0.31% win in AZ is very reminiscent of Barack Obama's +0.29% win in North Carolina 12 years ago, in 2008. In terms of topline percentage (49.36%), this is the best showing for a Democrat in this state since LBJ's 49.45% in 1964, the difference being that in 1964, Republican Barry Goldwater narrowly won his home state, while in 2020, Donald Trump lost Arizona. The total raw-vote broke all state records, with AZ coming over 3,000,000 total votes cast for the first time in history.

    How did Joe Biden's performance in AZ compare to the combined votes in the 9 congressional races?

    2020-12-001 Arizona results - excel table - congresssional.png

    This is interesting.

    Joe Biden's winning margin (+0.31%) is 0.59 points better than the D-losing-margin (R +0.28%) for all 9 congressional seat races combined in the Arizona.
    Like Pennsylvania, Arizona is a state where the congressional delegation did not change, but when you tally the statewide "popular" vote for all CDs combined, the Rs just narrowly "won".

    119,077 more votes were cast in the presidential in Arizona than in the 9 congressional races combined.
    Joe Biden scored 42,806 more votes than the votes for the 9 D congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump scored 23,090 LESS votes than the vote for 9 R congressional candidates combined.

    This pattern is very similar to the pattern we saw in the D-pickup state of Georgia.

    The certified Arizona results make for the fourth official certification of a flipped race over 2016, after Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania and for the second truly red state that Biden was able to flip.

    The congressional delegation in Arizona remained unchanged at D5 / R4 and all incumbents retained their seats, but as you can see from the excel table, the congressional Democrats in this state lost a lot of ground over their performance in 2018.
     
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    NORTH CAROLINA - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 15 EV

    2020-12-001 North Carolina results.png

    2020-12-001 North Carolina results - excel table.png

    Donald Trump's +1.35% winning margin in the Tarheel State represents a margin shrinkage of -2.31 points, which is statistically significant in a close race state. Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump set topline raw-vote records in this state. Also, it is the first time every that the total raw vote in the Tarheel State went over 5,000,000.

    Donald Trump's topline percentage of 49.93%, which was ever so slightly better than in 2016 in in terms of toplines, is the worst showing for a Republican in a two man race in this state since 1976 (Gerald R. Ford).

    Meanwhile, Joe Biden improved on the Democratic topline from 2016 by 2.4 points and his showing is the best for a Democrat in this state since Obama won the state in 2008 and the third best overall since 1976.

    In 8 of the last 8 cycles, NC was won by a single digit margin (Bush 43 won the state by double digits in both 2000 and 2004) and Trump's +1.35% margin makes for the 4th narrowest race here in the last 60 years, since 1960, behind 2008 (Obama +0.33%), 1992 (Bush 41 +0.79%) and 1960 (Nixon +0.99%).

    How does Trump's North Carolina performance match up to the NC congressional delegation (13 seats)?

    2020-12-001 North Carolina results - excel table - congressional.png

    On margin, Trump did better than the R-congressional delegation by 1.9 points, because in the "popular" vote of all 13 CDs, the Democrats actually "won". Also, in NC, the Democrats picked up 2 seats.

    Overall, 199,529 more raw votes were cast in the presidential election in Texas than for the 13 congressional races combined.

    Of those votes:
    Joe Biden scored 23,757 more raw votes than the 13 D-congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump also scored 127,439 more raw votes than 13 R-congressional candidates combined.

    There is no doubt that NC has become a prime battleground state and will be that way for the forseeable future as well.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2020
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The Wisconsin Supreme court has thrown out Trump's case:

    Order-SC (wicourts.gov)

    They refused to even hear it.
     
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  9. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    This would be comical if it wasn't so sad. Whatever possible positive legacy he could have had is being washed away with this silliness.

    I'm starting to feel bad for him. He's not used to hearing no. He doesn't know how to hear no.
     
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  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Republican judges, appointed by Trump, were part of the majority that shot the case down.
     
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  11. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    With California just certifying, Biden is at 279 EV in states that have certified their vote total.

    I mention that because there were people saying "Biden isn't president-elect until the vote totals are certified!". Those people will probably now move the goalposts further down the field.
     
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  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    NEBRASKA - Donald Trump (R) won 4 of 5 EV, Joe Biden (D) won 1 of 5 EV

    2020-12-006 RESULTS NEBRASKA.png

    And the presidential results, per CD:

    2020-12-006 RESULTS NEBRASKA by CD 1 and 2.png
    2020-12-006 RESULTS NEBRASKA by CD 3.png

    2020-12-006 RESULTS NEBRASKA - excel table complete and all three CDs.png

    As Maine and Nebraska are the only two states in the Union that award electors based on performance in each congressional district, in my excel table you see the statewide stats and the stats for both CDs in Nebraska. I already did a short write-up on Maine on this thread

    Donald Trump's landslide +19.06% margin of victory marks an +6 point erosion vis-a-vis his electoral record in this state from 2016. What makes Nebraska so interesting is that NE-03 is arguably one of the 3 or 4 most conservative districts in all of the Union, but within the same state, Joe Biden was able to easily flip NE-02, and by a good margin, at that.

    Trump's 556,846 raw votes is a record for this state and the second time only that a candidate has come over 500,000 votes in a General election (Bush 43 accomplished this in 2004 as well, but his margin of +33.22% was considerably higher). And the raw-vote total of 956,383 for all presidential candidates combined is also a record for this state.

    Since Nebraska and Maine must definitely give exacting stats for each CD since those two states award electors per CD, you can see that Trump's margin erosion in NE-01 was practically identical to his statewide margin erosion, whereas in NE-03, it is as if time simply stood still, +53% and some small-change. NE-03 is an R +50 CD, it's that simple. In contrast, by flipping NE-02, Joe Biden swung that district by almost 9 points. In 2008, when Barack Obama became the first Democrat to capture NE-02 as a stand-alone electoral vote, it took 3 days to declare him the winner. In 2020, NE-02 was declared for Biden directly on election night. And now historically, both ME and NE have awarded the electors of one of their CDs (NE02, ME02) to the candidate from the "other" party two times a piece.

    How does Trump's Nebraska performance match up to the NE congressional delegation (3 seats)?

    2020-12-006 RESULTS NEBRASKA - excel table complete and all three CDs - congressional races.png

    You can see that the 3 Republican congressional candidates combined did 10.7 points better on margin than Trump did in the presidential vote. Also, where Biden (D) picked up NE-02 with a +6.50% margin, Republican congressional incumbent Don Bacon retained his seat and improved his margin over 2018, to +4.56%, an 11.1 point swing between the two and proof-positive that some ticket-splitting was going on in NE-02.

    Also, whereas Joe Biden earned 48,556 more raw votes than the three D-congressional candidates combined, Donald Trump earned 58,425 LESS votes than the three R-congressional candidates combined. Overall, more total votes were cast in the NE congressional races than in the presidential, but the number of votes for Libertarian candidates in NE-01, 02 and 03 was simply more than statewide, again, a strong sign of ticket splitting.

    Oh, and NE-03? Look at Adrian Smith's (R) massive +64.55% margin in this extremely rural, expansive (and I wish to add, very beautiful, I have been there) district. Any Democrat who runs in NE-03 already knows that he or she is going to be a sacrificial lamb. Truth! Don't worry, Republicans feel the same way in the Bronx.
     
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  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    WEST VIRGINIA - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 3 EV
    2020-12-006 RESULTS WEST VIRGINIA.png

    2020-12-006 RESULTS WEST VIRGINIA - excel table.png


    Donald Trump's +38.94% winning margin is 2.74 points less than his 2016 performance in this state, statistically (almost) insignificant when the margin is this robust. Donald Trump is the first candidate in history to go over 500,000 votes in a presidential cycle in West Virginia.

    Joe Biden's 29.70% of the statewide vote is 3.52 points better than Hillary Clinton's showing in 2016 but still less than both of Obama's percentages. In fact, it is the second lowest D-topline in the entire presidential history of this state.

    How does Trump's West Virginia performance match up to the WV congressional delegation (3 seats)?

    2020-12-006 RESULTS WEST VIRGINIA - excel table - congressional.png

    On margin, this is one of the few states where Trump actually did better than the congressional Republicans combined. Also, all three congressional races were incumbent races and all three were landslide wins, as expected.
     
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  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    WISCONSIN - Joe Biden (D) won 10 EV
    DEMOCRATIC PICK-UP over 2016
    2020-12-005 GE totals - WI - website.png

    2020-12-005 GE totals - WI - excel table.png

    Joe Biden promised that, if nominated, he would restore the "blue wall" in the upper midwest by recapturing WI, MI and PA - and he did exactly that. His lean +0.63% win in WI reflects a swing of 1.39 points to the left and is very similar to Trump's win from 2016. In case you are not familiar with the nail-biter history of Wisconsin, here the years were a Presidential nominee won the state with less than +2.0%:

    2020, 2016, 2004, 2000, 1976, 1944.

    How did Joe Biden's performance in WI compare to the combined votes in the 8 congressional races?

    2020-12-005 GE totals - WI - excel table - congressional.png

    This is interesting.

    Joe Biden's winning margin (+0.69%) is 3.56 points better than the D-losing-margin (R +2.93%) for all 18 congressional seat races combined in the Badger State. In Pennsylvania, it was a similar story and Biden ran 3.41 points ahead of the congressional Democrats.

    59,990 more votes were cast in the presidential in Wisconsin than in the 8 congressional races combined.
    Joe Biden scored 64,195 more votes than the votes for the 8 D congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump scored 51,215 LESS votes than the vote for 8 R congressional candidates combined.

    This pattern is very similar to the pattern we saw in the D-pickup states of Georgia and Pennsylvania.

    The certified Wisconsin results make for the fourth official certification of a flipped race over 2016, after Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania and for the second official certification of a state that Trump won from the "blue wall" in 2016 but lost in this year, which was the promise that Joe Biden made as he was running for the nomination, namely, to rebuild the blue wall in the upper midwest states.

    The congressional delegation in Wisconsin remained unchanged at D3 / R5 and all incumbents retained their seats, but as you can see from the excel table, the congressional Democrats in this state lost a lot of ground over their performance in 2018.
     
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  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    OREGON - Joe Biden (D) won 7 EV
    2020-12-006 RESULTS OREGON.png

    2020-12-006 RESULTS OREGON - excel table.png

    The 2020 vote in Oregon is one of the unsung landslide-songs of this cycle.

    Joe Biden's +16.09% winning margin and +381,935 raw vote margin is a 5.11 point margin improvement over 2016 (which was also a landslide, to note) and is almost identical to Obama's 2008 margin of +16.35%. This is only the 6th time in the entire history of the state where a Democrat won this state with a double-digit margin. Donald Trump's topline % of 39.09% is actually very similar to 2016, but the absence of serious third-party voting moved votes over to the Democratic column



    How does Biden's Oregon performance match up to the OR congressional delegation (5 seats)?

    2020-12-006 RESULTS OREGON - excel table - congressional.png

    On margin, Biden did 2.3 points better than the D-congressional candidates. He also scored 55,044 more raw votes than the 5 D-congressional candidates combined, while Trump scored 8,338 LESS raw votes than the 5 R-congressional candidates.

    I am old enough to remember when Oregon was a rock-solid GOP state (Ronald Reagan won here by 12 points in 1984), then a battleground state (Bush 43 made a play for this state in both 2000 and 2004), and now, a rock-solid D state.
     
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  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Correction: Trump won 5 EV here, not 3. It was a simple typo. Oops.
     
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  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    MONTANA - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 3 EV
    2020-12-006 RESULTS MONTANA.png

    2020-12-006 RESULTS MONTANA - excel table.png


    Donald Trump's +16.37% winning margin is 3.86 points less than his 2016 performance in this state.

    Joe Biden's 40.55% of the statewide vote is 5.14 points better than Hillary Clinton's showing in 2016 but still less than both of Obama's percentages in 2012 and 2008 but better than both Kerry and Gore from 2004 and 2000.

    How does Trump's Montana performance match up to the lone MT-at large congressional seat?

    2020-12-006 RESULTS MONTANA - excel table - congressional.png

    On margin, this is one of the few states where Trump actually did better than the congressional Republican. There is a type of blue-collar Democrat in MT that tends to vote Republican unless the Democrat that is running is conservative enough for them, a reminder that R is not always R and D is not always D. We are more diverse than many people may want to believe.
     
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  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA - JOE BIDEN (D) won 3 EV
    2020-12-006 RESULTS DC.png

    2020-12-006 RESULTS DC - excel table.png


    With an almost +87% margin, there is really nothing to say here. DC has been casting electoral votes in the electoral "college" since 1964 and every single time, it has gone for the Democrat. The worst showing for a D-nominee here was with McGovern in 1972, and his margin was still +56.54%, kind of the blue version of Nebraska's 3rd congressional district. And is should be noted that both of Trump's topline percentages, from 2016 and 2020, are the two worst showings for a Republican in DC ever.

    Since DC doesn't have an official voting representative, there is nothing on the congressional side to compare this statistic to.
     
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  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    KANSAS - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 6 EV

    2020-12-006 RESULTS KANSAS.png

    2020-12-006 RESULTS KANSAS - excel file.png



    Donald Trump's +14.65% winning margin is 3.86 points less than his 2016 performance in this state and is very similar to the John McCain margin from 2008 (+14.92%) , when Obama won by +7.26% nationally

    Joe Biden's 41.56% of the statewide vote is 5.9 points better than Hillary Clinton's showing in 2016 and is practically identical to Obama's 2008 topline (41.55%).

    Kansas was a state where Trump either outperformed the polling or life-long Republicans who were really on the fence about him decided to vote for him, anyway.

    How does Trump's Kansas performance match up to the KS congressional delegation (4 seats)?

    2020-12-006 RESULTS KANSAS - excel file - congressional.png

    Trump ran 1.5 points less on margin than the congressional Republicans from Kansas.

    Overall, 13,430 more raw votes were cast in the KS presidential election than in the 4 congressional elections combined.
    Joe Biden scored 13,065 more raw-votes than the four D-congressional candidates.
    Donald Trump scored 4,492 LESS raw votes than the for R-congressional candidates.

    None of the races changed hands. Interesting that Sharice Davids (D-inc), who flipped KS-03 by a near landslide in 2018, retained her seat by a landslide in 2020.
     
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  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    MINNESOTA - Joe Biden (D) won 10 EV
    2020-12-005 GE totals - MN - website.png

    2020-12-005 GE totals - MN - excel table.png

    Joe Biden's +7.11% margin win in Minnesota reflects a 5.6 point margin improvement over 2016; it is a slightly smaller than Obama's 2012 margin (7.69%) and somewhat larger than Dukakis's 1988 margin (+7.02%). With Biden's 2020 win, Minnesota is now a 12 for 12 Democratic state, having voted for the Democratic nominee in every presidential cycle since and including 1976. It is also now a 20 for 23 D state all the way back to and including 1932, having given it's electors to only 2 Republicans in those 88 years: Dwight D. Eisenhower (1952, 1956) and Richard Nixon (1972). So, this state, until now, has been about as blue as blue gets. Still, a number of Republicans, hoping on the snowbird flight to sunbird effect, have made plays for this state, including both Bushes, McCain and Trump, but to no avail.

    How did Joe Biden's performance in MN compare to the combined votes in the 8 congressional races?

    2020-12-005 GE totals - MN - excel table - congressional.png

    Joe Biden fared 4.6 points better on margin than the 8 congressional Ds combined. In WI, it was 3.56 points better and in Pennsylvania, it was 3.41 points better. Anyone seeing consistent pattern, here?

    83,362 more votes were cast in the presidential in Minnesota than in the 8 congressional races combined.
    Joe Biden scored 162,704 more votes than the votes for the 8 D congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump scored 9,245 more votes than the vote for 8 R congressional candidates combined.

    The Republicans flipped MN-07, unseating long-term Conservative Democrat Collin Peterson, one of the few Ds who voted against impeachment.
     
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  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    CONNECTICUT - Joe Biden (D) won 7 EV
    2020-12-006 RESULTS CONNECTICUT (from Cook Report).png

    2020-12-006 RESULTS CONNECTICUT (from Cook Report) - excel table.png

    Joe Biden's +20.03% margin win in Minnesota reflects a 6.4 point margin improvement over 2016; it is the third best Democratic winning margin in this erstwhile bellwether state since 1936, behind 1964 (LBJ +35.72%) and 2008 (Obama +22.37%). In fact, 1964, 2008 and 2020 are the only three times in history where a D-nominee got over +20 in this state. I have taken time to note when Trump had big landslide wins. Well, Biden's showing in CT is a big landslide win as well.

    Also, Joe Biden is the first presidential nominee in our Republic's history to score over 1,000,000 raw votes in the presidential race in CT.

    How did Joe Biden's performance in CT compare to the combined votes in the 5 congressional races?

    2020-12-006 RESULTS CONNECTICUT (from Cook Report) - excel table - congressional.png

    Joe Biden fared 1.3 points worse on margin than the 5 congressional Ds combined, statistically insignificant for a margin this large. The two toplines (Biden, congressional Ds) were, however, almost identical.

    102,105 more votes were cast in the presidential in Connecticut than in the 5 congressional races combined.
    Joe Biden scored 20,449 more votes than the votes for the 8 D congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump scored 32,629 more votes than the vote for 8 R congressional candidates combined.

    The Democrats easily retained all 5 congressional seats, by large margins.
     
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  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    COLORADO - Joe Biden (D) won 9 EV
    2020-12-006 RESULTS COLORADO.png

    2020-12-006 RESULTS COLORADO - excel table.png

    The 2020 vote in Colorado, as in Oregon, is one of the unsung landslide-songs of this cycle.

    Joe Biden's +13.50% winning margin and +439,745 raw vote margin is a big 8.6 point margin improvement and 7.24 point topline improvement over 2016 and is larger than Obama's 2008 margin of +8.95%. It is the third highest Democratic winning margin in this state in 88 years, since 1932, behind 1936 (FDR +23.28) and 1964 (LBJ +23.07%), which puts Biden in pretty illustrious company. Just 12 years ago, in the epic election of 2008, Colorado was a fiercely contested "new" battleground state, alongside Virginia and now in 2020, both of those states were solid landslide wins

    How does Biden's Colorado performance match up to the CO congressional delegation (7 seats)?

    2020-12-006 RESULTS COLORADO - excel table - congressional.png

    On margin, Biden did 4 full points better than the D-congressional candidates. He also scored 125,300 more raw votes than the 7 D-congressional candidates combined, while Trump scored 13,641 LESS raw votes than the 7 R-congressional candidates.

    States like Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia and New Mexico, which were not calculated into the so called "blue wall", should be now.
     
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  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Update:

    with today's analyses, I have now reached the 2/3-mark, having written here on this thread about 35 of 51 "states" (including DC), in the following order:

    DE, VT, SD, WY, OK, SC, FL, HI, GA, ND, LA, KY, NH, VA, MI, MA, NM, IN, UT, NV, AR, ME, AL, PA, OH, TX, NE WV, WI, OR, MT, DC, KS, MN, CT, CO

    By 2020-12-013 I should be done with the other 16 states and then we will have the complete picture before the electors meet in their respective states to officially cast their votes for President.

    There are a number of states out there that are apparently officially done with the counting, but have no yet updated their website, for instance: MN, NC, TN. Sometimes, a state holds up final publishing because something is not in order with a downballot race. That has happened in North Carolina more than once. In fact, because of electoral fraud on the part of the Republican campaign in NC-09 in 2018, the race from that November was never certified and a new race was called.

    Surely in the coming week, there will be a flood of states that will be getting their numbers done and in and certified and all that jazz.

    It takes me a tad longer because I am crunching the HOR numbers simultaneously with the presidential numbers, for comparative purposes.

    One final note for this subject today: any or all of these state numbers that have already been certifite may still be slightly adjusted/amended. For many states, there can be write-in ballot challenges, also the resorting of write-in ballots where the person actually wrote the name of a major party candidate instead of filling in the scantron circle, etc. It happens every cycle and is usually about 500 to 1,000 additional votes, scattered all over the country, when all is said and done. The adjustments have never until now changed the declared victor of a race.

    And mistakes can indeed happen. As late as May 2005, the great state of Mississippi adjusted it's raw vote total for President George W. Bush (43) from the 2004 GE down by exactly 10,000 votes, due to a clerical error in one county. In 2012, in late December, a similar mistake of 3,000 votes too many for Mitt Romney was discovered in Hennepin County, Minnesota (also a clerical error), and the totals were corrected for the congressional record.

    But essentially, by December 13th, we really should be at the end-numbers for the 2020 election.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2020
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  25. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    NEW YORK - Joe Biden (D) won 29 EV
    2020-12-008 RESULTS NEW YORK.png

    2020-12-008 RESULTS NEW YORK - excel.png

    I used David Wasserman's figures because the NY figures are provided per downloadable xls data and the disparity in write-in votes is because they are itemized elsewhere. Here the main page for the NY elections, so you can download stuff yourself.

    Joe Biden's +23.13% winning margin and +1,991,882 raw vote margin is only a +0.64 point margin improvement over 2016 (which was also a landslide, to note) and is very much in line with every Democratic win in this state since 1996. Joe Biden is the first presidential nominee ever to garner over 5,000,000 votes in the Empire State, a record. Both the Biden's and Trump's topline margin improved over 2016 as the 3rd party vote shrunk considerably.

    These results are "official" but the congressional results for NY-22 (which has still not been called) are in dispute and apparently there are 1,000 more ballots to cast, so the presidential figures may shift just a tad, but that would be about 1/100th of a percentage point in either way.

    How does Biden's NY performance match up to the NY congressional delegation (27 seats)?

    2020-12-008 RESULTS NEW YORK - excel - congressional.png

    On margin, Biden did 2 points worse than the D-congressional candidates, which makes sense as a couple of congressional seats in NY were D-shutouts.

    386,779 more votes were cast in the NY presidential election than in the 27 congressional elections combined. Biden scored 145,018 more raw votes than the 27 D-congressional candidates combined, while Trump scored 224,581 raw votes than the R-congressional candidates.

    When you compared the congressional Democrats' performance in 2020 over 2018, there is a lot of margin erosion and the Republicans reclaimed one seat that the Democrats picked up on 2018 (NY-11, Staaten Island, one of the few traditionally Conservative strongholds in the state). That being said, when one party is winning congressional elections by +25, it's already a blowout to begin with.

    Legislation is planned to upgrade NY's election system so that the counting can go far more quickly next time around.
     

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