2020 Presidential Election Electoral Endcount: Biden 306 / Trump 232, Biden +74 electors

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Nov 13, 2020.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    IOWA - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 6 EV
    2020-12-006 RESULTS IOWA.png
    2020-12-006 RESULTS IOWA - excel table.png


    Donald Trump's +8.20% winning margin and +138,611 raw-vote margin is 1.2 points less on margin than his 2016 statistic against Hillary Clinton but it is very close to his Ohio margin.

    On the whole, Biden improved the Democratic Party's topline statistic in this state (over 2016) by 3.15 points. After the election results of 2016 and 2020, I think it is fair to say that neither Iowa nor Ohio are battleground states any longer. Polling showed this race to be closer than it ended up being, but as usual, the gold standard pollster for Iowa, Selzer, pretty much nailed Trump's winning margin.

    How does Trump's Iowa performance match up to the IA congressional delegation (4 seats)?

    2020-12-006 RESULTS IOWA - excel table - congressional.png

    On margin, Trump did 2.3 points better than the 4 congressional Republicans, but the Republicans swung the statewide margin over 2018 (mid-term elections) by almost 10 points and what the good Lord giveth, he can also away taketh, nöööö. Because the Ds flipped 2 seats in Iowa in 2018 (IA-01, IA-03) and then the Republicans promptly flipped 2 seats in 2020 (IA-01, IA-02). And no, your eyes are not fooling you when you look at the results for IA-02. Republican Marianette Miller-Meeks flipped the seat, which was once a Dave Loebsack landslide seat, by all of 6 votes and will go into the record books as the closest congressional race in many, many years. The margin is so small that when you calculate out of the 1/100th of a percent, it is 0.00%. The true margin is: 0.00015%. A 6 vote margin out of almost 400,000 votes cast.....
     
  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    MARYLAND - Joe Biden (D) won 10 EV
    2020-12-006 RESULTS MARYLAND.png

    2020-12-006 RESULTS MARYLAND - excel table.png

    Some of the statistics about Maryland are going to simply blow your minds. In spite of the fact that this may be hard to get across to people, Maryland, like Colorado, Oregon, Washington State and New Mexico, is one of the unsung landslides of this cycle, and in this case, an absolute blowout landslide that deserves to be recognized as such.

    Joe Biden's massive +33.21% margin win in Maryland reflects a 6.8 point margin improvement over 2016; here's the kicker: it is the largest margin for a Democratic presidential nominee AND for ANY presidential nominee of any party in this state since 1868, 152 years ago, when Democrat Horatio Seymour, who lost the GE to General Ulysses S. Grant, won Maryland by +34.40%. When you consider that 1868 was the first presidential election following the Civil War and that the two parties (Democratic and Republican) have essentially switched teams since then, a strong argument can be made that Joe Biden's 2020 statistic is actually the record-holder for the Democratic Party that we recognize today. Also, Biden's +1,008,609 raw vote margin is the first time ever that any candidate for any office in this state has had a +raw vote margin in 7-digits. Biden's 2020 margin is not only better than Clinton's 2016 margin, but also better than both of Obama's margins (+25.44% in 2008 and +26.08% in 2012). Maryland was one of the few states where Hillary Clinton actually improved upon Obama's 2012 statistic. Now, why am I harping so much about this in a state that everyone knew was going to be a rock-solid D state in 2020? Well, it's because people who know me know that I have often said that "margins matter" and that we can learn as much from margins in safe states as we can from the battlegrounds. In 2004, as the evening was unfolding, when I saw that Democratic nominee John Kerry was winning New York by "only" +18 and Illinois and Maryland (and later, California and Hawaii) by "only" +10, I knew that he had lost the election, because how a losing team fares in it's safe states tells us alot about the national trends at large.

    So, a +33.21% here in Maryland is a truly historic and (almost) record-setting performance. Also, for Democrats, it's really difficult to surpass Lyndon Baines Johnson's 1964 statistic because that election was such a massive blowout for Kennedy's successor, but in Maryland, Joe Biden managed to surpass even LBJ. Also, to put this into perspective vis-a-vis soon to be ex-President Donald Trump, Biden's MD margin is pretty much right between Trump's OK (+33.09%) ND (+33.36%) victories. Maryland was Biden's fourth strongest "state", after DC, VT and MA.

    Trump's topline percentage of 32.15% is also indeed the worst showing for a Republican in either a 2-or-3 man race in this state since 1868. Even Barry Goldwater, who got pummeled by LBJ in 1964, did better than Trump here. That says something, right there.

    How did Joe Biden's performance in MD compare to the combined votes in the 8 congressional races?

    2020-12-006 RESULTS MARYLAND - excel table - congressional.png

    Joe Biden fared 3.3 points better on margin in Maryland than the 8 congressional Ds combined. In WI, it was 3.56 points better and in Pennsylvania, it was 3.41 points better. Anyone seeing consistent pattern, here? Interestingly enough, the D-margin for the congressional races in 2018 was practically identical to Biden's showing in 2020. The Ds lost 3.1 points on margin over the mid-terms, but +30 is as much a blowout as +33.

    82,860 more votes were cast in the presidential in Minnesota than in the 8 congressional races combined and btw, this is the first time in Maryland's history that the total raw vote hit and then exceeded the 3 million mark.

    Joe Biden scored 72,235 more votes than the votes for the 8 D congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump scored 51,742 LESS votes than the vote for 8 R congressional candidates combined.

    All 8 MD congressional races were incumbent elections and all 8 incumbents won with landslide margins. In this way, MD is very similar to MA, only, out of MA's 9 congressional seats, all 9 are in Democratic hands, while in MD, it's D7 / R 1. Gregory Brown, a name that most people do not recognize, won his seat by +59.36% - a bigger margin that what Republicans expect in Nebraska's 3rd congressional district. Kweise Mfume, who held (MD-07) before Elijah Cummings won the seat in 1996 and then won the seat again (in a special election) after the honorable Rep. Cumming's death, just won his first incumbent election since the 1990s, and with +44.

    To note is that Republican incumbent Andy Harris (MD-01) also won with a big landslide and actually improved upon his 2018 performance, swimming like a salmon demonstrably upstream against a Democratic tide in this state. Kudos to Andy Harris for holding his own in a very (for Republicans) inhospitable environment.

    Fun factoid: in 1904, incumbent Republican President Teddy Roosevelt won Maryland by all of +51 raw votes, or +0.02%, and that was not even the closest race in MD's electoral history. MD was won by all of 4 votes in a presidential race before the Republican Party even came into being, I believe, either in 1844 or 1840.
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2020
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  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    MISSISSIPPI - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 6 EV
    2020-12-006 RESULTS MISSISSIPPI.png

    2020-12-006 RESULTS MISSISSIPPI - excel table.png

    Note: the Mississippi results have been certified for 2 weeks but it always takes forever for them to finally put out the certified document on their website. Same crap, different year...

    Donald Trump's +16.54% winning margin and +217,281 raw-vote margin is 1.3 points less on margin than his 2016 statistic against Hillary Clinton but it is still a good, solid landslide.

    On the whole, Biden improved the Democratic Party's topline statistic in this state (over 2016) by just 1 point. It's been a long time since Mississippi was a truly competitive state on the presidential level: in 1976, the last time a Democratic nominee won this state, Carter's margin was +1.88% and in 1980, when Republican challenger Ronald Reagan unseated Carter, he just barely pulled Mississippi "over the line", by +1.32%. Since then, MS has now been a reliably Republican state on the presidential level for 11 straight cycles. Of the sum total of 14 cycles where the Republican Party won Mississippi, Trump's 2020 margin is the 8th highest margin. His percentage margin here is very close to Biden's win in Illinois.

    How does Trump's MS performance match up to the MS congressional delegation (4 seats)?

    2020-12-006 RESULTS MISSISSIPPI - excel table - congressional.png

    Trump did 15 points worse on margin than the congressional Republicans, but the caveat here is that with only 4 seats, each one is roughly 25% of the electorate (or at least that's the way we hope it ends up being) and MS-04 was a Republican shutout. Further, MS-02, which was a Democratic shutout in 2018, was a two-man race this time, so the Rs in the 4 congressional seats combined were bound to have a % advantage over the soon-to-be ex-President. All four congressional races, all four were won by the incumbents and all four were massive blowout margins.
     
  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    NEW JERSEY - Joe Biden (D) won 14 EV
    2020-12-006 RESULTS NEW JERSEY.png

    2020-12-006 RESULTS NEW JERSEY- excel table.png

    Joe Biden's landslide +15.94% margin win in New Jersey reflects a 2 point margin improvement over 2016; his margin here is almost identical to Obama's 2008 win (+15.53%) but less than Obama's 2012 re-election win (+17.74%) - Hurricane Sandy and Obama's response doubtless helped his statistic in some Northeastern states that year. Of the 24 cycles where a Democratic nominee won the Garden State (15 of them since the beginning of the 20th century), Joe Biden's 2020 margin is the 6th highest for a Democrat, after 1964, 1936, 1856, 1996 and 2012. 4 of the 5 cycles I just mentioned were D-incumbent cycles, the exception being 1856, the first year where the GOP appeared on the ballot in a presidential election.

    Donald Trump's topline percentage of 41.40% is a marginal improvement over 2016 and is in-line with the Republican toplines in 6 of the last 8 presidential cycles, the exceptions being Dole in 1996 and Bush 43 in 2004.

    How did Joe Biden's performance in NJ compare to the combined votes in the 12 congressional races?

    2020-12-006 RESULTS NEW JERSEY- excel table - congressional 001.png
    2020-12-006 RESULTS NEW JERSEY- excel table - congressional 002.png

    As you can see, Joe Biden's 2020 margin and the margin of the 12 congressional races combined are almost identical to each other, showing a rare consistency in this year.

    116,430 more votes were cast in the presidential in New Jersey than in the 12 congressional races combined.

    Joe Biden scored 69,207 more votes than the votes for the 12 D congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump scored 40,227 more votes than the vote for 12 R congressional candidates combined.

    All 12 NJ congressional races were incumbent elections and all 12 incumbents won. It's hard to pidgeon-hole NJ-02, where Jeff VanDrew won in 2018 as a Democrat and then switched parties. When you compare Jeff Van Drew to himself, then actually, he lost on margin by 2.08 points, but since his win is now with a different party, the Republican party shifted the margin here by 13.43 points. It's not unheard of that a congressman switches parties, but it is is pretty rare.

    Some of the margin shifts are incorrectly calculated - I will publish a corrected screenshot at a later date.
     
  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    ILLINOIS - Joe Biden (D) won 20 EV
    2020-12-008 RESULTS ILLINOIS.png

    2020-12-008 RESULTS ILLINOIS - excel table.png

    Joe Biden's landslide +16.99% margin win in Illinois reflects standstill over 2016; his margin here is almost identical to Clinton's 2016 win (+16.88%) and also practically identical to Obama's 2012 win (+16.84%), so we can say with assuredness that for the last 3 cycles, the Land of Lincoln has been a rock-solid D +17 state, very much on par with how we expect a Republican to fare in, say, Louisiana. Biden's margin is indeed less than Obama's historic 2008 win (+25.10%), which is still the record-holder for Democrats, but of the 18 presidential cycles where a Democratic nominee won the Garden State (15 of them since the beginning of the 20th century), Joe Biden's 2020 margin is the 4th highest for a Democrat, after 2008, 1964 and 1996. Also, Joe Biden's Illinois margin is higher than any Republican winning margin since Nixon's +18.52% in 1972. This is now the 8th time in a row where a Democratic nominee has won Illinois and also the 8th landslide margin in a row.

    Donald Trump's topline percentage of 40.55% represents a 2.3 point improvement over his 2016 statistic.

    For the first time ever, over 6,000,000 total raw-votes were cast in the Illinois presidential races.
    This is the 2nd time where a nominee won Illinois with a raw-vote margin of over +1,000,000

    How did Joe Biden's performance in IL compare to the combined votes in the 18 congressional races?

    2020-12-008 RESULTS ILLINOIS - excel table - congressional 001.png
    2020-12-008 RESULTS ILLINOIS - excel table - congressional 002.png

    As you can see, Joe Biden's 2020 margin is 1 point richer than the margin of the 18 congressional races.

    156,925 more votes were cast in the presidential in Illinois than in the 18 congressional races combined.

    Joe Biden scored 116,428 more votes than the votes for the 18 D congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump scored 29,962 more votes than the vote for 18 R congressional candidates combined.

    16 of the 18 IL congressional races were incumbent elections. All 16 incumbents won and in the two open races (IL-02, IL-15), the respective parties held those seats. In IL-02, Marie Newman took over Dan Lipinski's seat. Lipinski, alongside Collin Peterson, was considered one of the remaining truly Conservative Democrats left in Congress. Lipinski retired and Peterson lost his seat. Republican John Shimkus resigned and Mary Miller actually improved upon his 2018 statistic. Democratic incumbents Sean Casten (IL-06) and Lauren Underwood (IL-14), both of whom flipped those seats for team Blue in 2018, held on to their seats, both by reduced margins. I see that the margin shift calculation for Casten is wrong, will be corrected at a later date. Lauren Underwood deserves a special shoutout, here: the CD she flipped in 2018 had been particularly inhospitable to Democrats in the past, but she, as a young black Democratic woman, not only flipped the seat, but held it in spite of a lot of trumpian vitriol against her in 2020. Underwood is the most quiet and in my opinion, the most hard-working of "the squad".

    Remember the "frozen in time" comments I made about Oklahoma and Nebraska-03 on the Republican side? Well, one can say the same about both New Jersey and Illinois on the Democratic side. Those two states are now reliably D +16 to D+17 and will probably stay that way for a good, long time.
     
  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    MISSOURI - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 10 EV


    2020-12-009 RESULTS MISSOURI.png

    2020-12-009 RESULTS MISSOURI - excel table.png

    Donald Trump's +15.39% winning margin and +465,722 raw-vote margin is 2.5 points less on margin than his 2016 statistic against Hillary Clinton but it is still a good, solid landslide. This is the second time in a row where Missouri was won by a double-digit margin, and by the same nominee, namely, Donald Trump.The last time that any other presidential nominee was able to win this state twice in a row with double digit margins was FDR in 1932 and 1936.

    Of the 19 times where a Republican nominee won this state (17 of from the beginnning of the 20th century, only 2 from the 19 century), Trump's margin is the 5th highest, after 1864 (Lincoln +39.44%), 1972 (Nixon +24.59%), 1984 (Reagan +20.05%) and 2016 (Trump +18.51%). In a year where Joe Biden (D) won nationally by at least +4.5%, this means that Missouri banked 19.8 points hard to the right of the national margin, hardly the sign of a bellwether state. In fact, since 2008, Missouri has gone 3 times for the loser in the electoral college and 4 straight times for the loser in the national popular vote, which leads me to think that Missouri is drifting farther and farther to the right.

    On the whole, Biden improved the Democratic Party's topline statistic in this state (over 2016) by 3.3 points. His topline percentage of 41.41% is higher than Hillary Clinton's from 2016 but lower than the showing of any Democratic nominee until George McGovern in 1972 (37.71%) and then you have to go all the way back to 1864 to find another Democratic topline percentage lower than Biden's from 2020: George McClellan (30.28%). So, in spite of the fact that Biden improved Democrats' standing somewhat in the former bellwether state, fact is that his losing topline percentage of 41.41% is the fourth lowest topline percentage for a Democrat in all of Missouri's presidential election history, after the two years already mentioned and then 1860 as well: Stephen Douglas (35.52%). However, in 1860, Douglas actually won Missouri in a 4-way squeaker. Life comes at you fast!

    I want to do something different with Missouri than I have done with any other state to date. Here is the county electoral map of Missouri from 2020 on the presidential level, courtesy of Fox News:

    2020-12-009 RESULTS MISSOURI - Fox presidential county map.png

    Missouri is comprised of 114 counties and one independent city. For the sake of simplicity and for the purpose of this exercise, let's just say 115 counties. Of those 115, Trump won 111 (96.5%) and Biden won only 4 (3.5%). Looks like the wipeout of the century, what? But.... when you count the number of total votes cast in those four:

    St. Louis City: 133,867
    St. Louis County: 536,446
    Boone County: 91,168
    Jackson County: 333,063
    Total: 1,084,544, which is a whalloping 35.84% of the total vote from the entire state. So, those 4 counties are only 3.5% of all counties in Missouri, numerically speaking, but account for more than 1/3 of the total statewide vote.

    Aaaaand the lesson here is that geographical size is not the same as population density. Counties don't vote. People do.


    How does Trump's Missouri performance match up to the MO congressional delegation (8 seats)?

    2020-12-009 RESULTS MISSOURI - excel table - congressional.png

    Trump did 3.2 points worse on margin than the congressional statistics for this state. Wait, where have I seen that number before....??? Well, in Wisconsin, Biden did 3.6 points better than the congressional statistics, which logically means that Trump did 3.6 points worse. In Minnesota, it was 4.6 points, in Colorado, it was 4.0 points, in Nevada, it was 2.4, in Pennsylvania, it was 2.5, in Georgia, it was 2.9, in Kentucky, it was 3.8 and in Michigan, it was 1.5.

    It's kind of hard to scream "voter fraud" and "rigged elections" when the amount of margin-erosion for the soon to be ex-President in both blue and red states is pretty much uniform across the board, nööööö.

    Only 52,541 more raw votes were cast in the presidential election in MO vis-a-vis the 8 congressional seat elections combined.
    Joe Biden scored 80,879 more raw votes than the 8 D congressional candidates combined.
    Donald Trump scored 5,246 LESS raw votes then the 8 R congressional candidates combined.

    In the MO congressional elections, 7 of 8 seats were incumbent elections and all 7 incumbents won, 6 of them quite easily. In MO-01, it was a open race, where very Progressive Cory Bush easily held William Lacy Clay's former seat for the Democratic Party.
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2020
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    RHODE ISLAND - Joe Biden (D) won 4 EV
    2020-12-009 RESULTS RHODE ISLAND.png
    2020-12-009 RESULTS RHODE ISLAND - excel table.png

    Joe Biden's landslide +20.77% winning margin and +107,564 raw vote margin is a 5.3 point margin improvement over 2016 (which was also a landslide, to note) but about 7 points less than both of Obama's winning margins in 2008 and 2012. It is nearly identical to John Kerry's 2004 margin (+20.75%). In terms of electoral history, RI is now a 9 for 9 D state, having been won by the Democrat in every presidential cycle since and including 1988, and in all nine of those cycles it was a landslide win between +11.71 and +32.89%. Going further back in history, back to 1928, 24 presidential cycles, the Democrats have won this state 20 of 24 times, with the only three Republicans to have captured this state being Eisenhower (1952, 1956), Nixon (1972) and Reagan (1984). So, Rhode Island is about as blue as blue can get. Buuuuut.... before 1928, RI was an incredibly Republican state. So, what happened in 1928, a year in which Herbert Hoover won nationally by over +17? Well, Al Smith happened, the first Catholic to be nominated for the presidency, and Rhode Island and Massachusetts are two VERY Catholic states and were even more so back in 1928. So, "Rum, Romanism and Rebellion" brought Rhode Island over to the blue island, you can say.

    Two raw-vote records were set in this state: for the first time ever, RI came over 500,000 total raw votes and Joe Biden is the first nominee ever to come over 300,000 raw votes in this state.

    How does Biden's Rhode Island performance match up to the RI congressional delegation (2 seats)?

    2020-12-009 RESULTS RHODE ISLAND - excel table - congressional.png

    On margin, Biden did 21 points worse than the D-congressional candidates. David Ciciline and James Langevin are longstanding congessmen who have built an incredibly big, powerful clientele. As popular as those two are with their respective constituencies, the job is theirs to have as long as they want it. However, there is more to it than just that. Read further.

    That being said:

    29,340 more raw-votes were cast in the presidential than in the congressional races
    Joe Biden scored 5,150 LESS votes than the 2 D congressional nominees combined.
    Donald Trump scored 90,028 MORE votes than the 2 R congressional nominees combined - but look, RI-01 was a D-shutout race, which skews all of this massively. That's why Trump had so many more raw votes than his R counterpart in the House and also why Biden's margin is so much lower. Had an R been in the race in RI-01, this picture would have looked somewhat different.

    It looks very much as if Rhode Island is going to lose a congressional seat come the 2022 mid-term elections and will go from 4 down to 3 electors in the 2024 presidential election.
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2020
  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    TENNESSEE - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 11 EV
    2020-12-009 RESULTS TENNESSEE.png

    2020-12-009 RESULTS TENNESSEE - excel table.png

    For the first time ever, the statewide popular vote for President went over 3,000,000 raw votes in the Volunteer State.

    Donald Trump's +23.27% winning margin and +710,764 raw-vote margin is 2.7 points less on margin than his 2016 statistic against Hillary Clinton but it is still very big landslide.

    On the whole, Biden improved the Democratic Party's topline statistic in this state (over 2016) exactly those 2.7 points mentioned above, because Trump's topline literally did not budge.

    Tennessee is now a 6 for 6 Republican state on the presidential level, having voted for the GOP nominee every time since the 2000 election, and the last 5 of those 6 times have been with double-digit winning margins. Tennessee is also now a 14 for 18 R-state, going back to and including 1952, having voted for the Democratic nominee only in 1964, 1976, 1992 and 1996. In all four cases, the D-nominee was a Southerner. Donald Trump is now the 5th Republican President to have won Tennessee two times in a row, after Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan and Bush 43.

    How does Trump's Tennessee performance match up to the TN congressional delegation (9 seats)?

    2020-12-009 RESULTS TENNESSEE - excel table - congressional.png

    Trump did 3 points better on margin than the 9 congressional Rs who were in these races.

    202,107 more raw-votes were cast in the TN presidential election than in the 9 congressional elections combined.
    Donald Trump scored 169,222 more raw votes than the 9 R congressional nominees combined.
    Joe Biden scored 38,174 more raw votes than the 9 D congressional nominees combined.

    8 of the 9 congressional races were incumbent race and all 8 were won easily. In TN-01, Diana Harshbarger easily retained the seat for the Republican Party.
    The TN statistic over 2018 was essential unchanged in margin.

    TN has become an R +20 state on many levels, plain and simple.
     
  9. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Even in the solidly republican states, Biden did better than Clinton. I'm unclear as to why it's so hard to believe Biden won. There's evidence everywhere.
     
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  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    WASHINGTON STATE - Joe Biden (D) won 12 EV
    2020-12-009 RESULTS WASHINGTON STATE.png

    2020-12-009 RESULTS WASHINGTON STATE - excel table.png

    Washington State is one of the unsung landslides of 2020.

    Joe Biden's landslide +19.20% winning margin and +784,961 raw vote margin is a 3.5 point margin improvement over 2016 (which was also a landslide, to note) and is also more than both of Obama's landslides in 2008 and 2012. The entire electoral history of Washington State stretches back to only 1892, which is a sum total of 33 presidential cycles, and of them, the Democratic Party has won this state 18 times, the Republican Party has won it 14 times and a 3rd Party (Teddy Roosevelt's "Bull-Moose Party) won it 1 time. More specific to our era, Washington State is now a 9 for 9 D state, having gone for the Democratic nominee every time since and including 1988. Joe Biden's 2020 margin is the highest of these 9 race and the 4th highest overall for a Democrat, after FDR (1936, +36.50%), LBJ (1964, +24.59%) and FDR (1932, +23.52%), so Joe Biden is in pretty illustrious company here, at least from the perspective of Democrats.

    Donald Trump actually improved his topline by a little less than 2 points. What really changed in Washington State was the 3rd party vote, which shrunk from a massive 10.63% down to 3.26%, obviously to Joe Biden's advantage.

    Two raw-vote records were set in this state: for the first time ever, WA came over 4,000,000 total raw votes and Joe Biden is the first ever individual nominee to come over 2,000,000 raw votes.

    Washington State, like Oregon, does mail-in only voting, and it has worked perfectly for years now.

    How does Biden's Washington State performance match up to the WA congressional delegation (10 seats)?

    2020-12-009 RESULTS WASHINGTON STATE - excel table - congressional.png

    On margin, Biden did just a little less than 1 point worse than the D-congressional candidates, which, with blowout margins this large, is statistically insignificant.

    143,398 more raw-votes were cast in the WA presidential than in the 10 WA congressional races
    Joe Biden scored 29,256 more votes than the 11 D congressional nominees combined. - yes, I wrote 11, not 10. In WA-10, it was a D-shutout race, but due to the jungle primary system, where the top two vote getters advance, that race was a D vs. D race.
    Donald Trump scored 39,215 MORE votes than the 10 R congressional nominees combined
    74,927 more raw votes were cast for 3rd party candidates than in the 10 congressional races combined.

    9 out of Washington State's 10 congressional seats were incumbent races and all 9 incumbents won, 8 of them easily. in WA-08, Kim Schrier held the seat for the Democrats, a seat she flipped in 2018, but her margin was reduced. The open seat, WA-10, was also the D-shutout race, where Marilyn Strickland beat another Democratic, in this case, a very unlucky sacrificial lamb, by +84.89%.

    In 2018, Pramila Jayapal (WA-07) scored the highest amount of raw votes out of all 435 Representatives (387,109), this time around, she may end up being the 2nd highest vote getter overall. But just to put her win into perspective, Jayapal, with 387,109 raw votes cast for her, earned more votes than Joe Biden did in the entire state of Rhode Island, which has 2 congressional districts....

    IN short, the margins we are seeing on the West Coast and in the Southeast (Mountain region) tells me that the "blue wall" in the West is more solid than ever before.

    And yes, you guessed it right: I am saving California for the very last individual statewide posting.
     
  11. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    IDAHO - DONALD TRUMP (R) won 4 EV
    2020-12-011 IDAHO results.png

    The Idaho results are first published without the write-in votes.

    2020-12-011 IDAHO results - excel table -write in link.png

    For the write-ins, you have to download a small excel table, which you can see here. This is why I added the +653 to the screenshot above.

    2020-12-011 IDAHO results - excel table.png



    Donald Trump's +30.77% winning margin and +267,098 raw-vote margin is only 1 point less on margin than his 2016 statistic against Hillary Clinton, which, with a blowout margin like this, is statistically insignificant. BTW, the 2016 statistic is almost identical to the 2012 statistic. Idaho is a core-GOP state, a 14 for 14 R state, all the way back to and including 1968. Of those 14 cycles, the Republican nominee has won this state with over +30% 8 of those 14 times. There is no need to

    On the whole, Biden improved the Democratic Party's topline statistic in this state (over 2016) by 5.6 points but Trump also improved his topline by 4.6 points. This is because the very large 3rd party vote from 2016 (13.27%) dwindled down to 3% in 2020.

    How does Trump's Idaho performance match up to the ID congressional delegation (2 seats)?

    2020-12-011 IDAHO results - excel table - congressional.png

    Trump did 5.2 points worse on margin than the 2 congressional Rs who were in these races.

    18,111 more raw-votes were cast in the ID presidential election than in the 2 congressional elections combined.
    Joe Biden scored 31,490 more raw votes than the 2 D congressional nominees combined.
    Donald Trump scored 9,986 LESS raw votes than the 2 R congressional nominees combined.

    Both congressional races were incumbent races and both were won by the Republicans quite easily, as expected.
     
  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    With the small analysis of Idaho completed, DC and 49 of the 50 states are now done.

    The only state left: CALIFORNIA!

    I will get to it tomorrow.
     
  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The US Supreme Court just slapped down the Texas request for its case to be heard, asking for the votes from four battleground states to be thrown out, thus tipping the election to Trump.

    This is a major slap in the face not only to the state of Texas (which had not business in the business of other states, to begin with), but also directly to soon-to-be Ex-President Trump.
     
  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    CALIFORNIA - Joe Biden (D) won 55 EV

    Some of the statistics about California are going to simply blow your minds. In spite of the fact that this may be hard to get across to people, California, like Maryland, Colorado, Oregon, Washington State and New Mexico, is one of the unsung landslides of this cycle, and in this case, an absolute blowout landslide that deserves to be recognized as such.

    And before we go any farther, I am not sure that people really understand how big California is, in terms of landmass, economy, and even more importantly, population.

    With 164,000 square miles, California is the 3rd largest state in the Union by landmass, behind Alaska (665,000 sq mi) and Texas (269,000 sq mi).

    But with 40,000,000 residents, California is by far the largest state in the Union, approximately 12% of the total US population, closer to 11% when you kick-in the populations of the territories into the sum-total. To put this in perspective: out of 214 nations on Earth, were California an independent nation, it would be rank 37 among the nations, between Iraq and Afghanistan.

    In terms of economic output, California's economy ranks number 1 in the USA and is the major driver of the entire US economy, currently with an IDP (inland domestic product) of over 3 trillion, accounting for 14.5% of the entire US economy (including the territories). So, since California's GDP is percentually larger than it's % of the US population, this makes California a "giver" state and not a "taker" state when it comes to taxation. Remove California from the equation, you remove a massive chunk of the US economy from the equation. In short, with hardship, California could live without the US, but the US would likely not survive without California.

    So, economically, California is overrepresented, but in terms of electoral firepower, California is slightly underrrepresented. More about this within the analysis itself.

    One final note before I begin: the fact that California was able to bust all records, with 17.5 million people having voted in the presidential election in this state in spite a pandemic raging far worse than in most of the country and multiple wild-fires (that are still not all out to this date) is a testament to the stability of California's election process. More about this when we get to the congressional votes.

    So, here we go.

    2020-12-012 CALIFORNIA results.png

    2020-12-012 CALIFORNIA results - excel table.png

    Joe Biden's massive +29.15% margin and +5,103,821 raw vote win in California reflects a 0.8 point margin erosion over 2016. That being said, Hillary Clinton's massive +30 point win brought her a +4,269,978 raw-vote margin, which was, until now, absolutely THE record-setter, not only for California, but for any other state in the Union. Look more closely: in terms of the topline percentage, Biden actually improved upon the Democratic Party statistic from 2016 by 2 points, going from 61.46% (Hillary Clinton) to 63.45% (Biden). Biden's topline is now the 2nd highest Democratic percentage in California's history, behind FDR's 1936 win (66.95%) and the fourth highest from any party, behind FDR in 1936 (already mentioned), Harding in 1920 (66.20%) and Hoover in 1928 (64.69%), so Joe Biden has secured a pretty amazing position in electoral history as far as California is concerned. It should be noted that soon-to-be ex-President Donald Trump did indeed improve upon his topline % by 2.8 points, but his 34.30% of the vote here is still the worst topline for a Republican (outside of his own 2016 performance) in a two-man race since 1936 (Alf Landon: 31.70%).

    A number of raw-vote records were set: first, with 17,511,373 raw votes, California has set an almost unsurpassable total raw-vote record for any other state to try to surpass. In 2020, two other states came over 10-million raw votes: Texas (11,315,056) and Florida (11,091,758 ). To put this California total into perspective, California's raw vote was larger than the 22 "smallest" states (in terms of total raw vote) put together:

    2020-12-012 CALIFORNIA results - popular vote comparison to bottom 21 states.png

    Also an interesting thought experiment: California, which is currently worth 55 EV, cast more votes than these 21 "states" combined, but those 21 are currently worth 89 EV.

    The second raw vote record is Joe Biden's whalloping 11,110,250 raw votes, making him the first presidential nominee to win more than 10 million votes in any state.
    However, Donald Trump, with 6,006,429 raw votes, did indeed set a record for the Republican Party in California.

    The third raw vote record is the raw-vote margin of: Biden +5,103,821 votes. To win a state by +5.1 million votes is.... wow.

    From 1952 through 1988, California was very much a Republican state, having gone in 9 out of 10 cycles for the Republican nominee, the exception being 1964. However, since and including 1992, California has now voted 8 times in a row for the Democratic nominee and 7 of those 8 cycles were above +10% in margin (Kerry won by +9.95%).

    You can see the explosive rise in the Democratic winning margin in California: Clinton (Bill) between +13 and +12, Gore and Kerry between +11 and +10, Obama between +24 and +23 and now, Clinton (Hillary) and Biden with +30 and +29, a steady progression from the +10s into the +20s into the +30s in terms of percentage margin.

    In it's current political state, California is simply unwinnable for any Republican presidential nominee, plain and simple, for the same reason that Oklahoma is unwinnable for any Democratic presidential nominee. Only, were I to have the choice between 55 rock-solid EV and 7 rock-solid EV, I'll take the 55, thank you very much.

    How did Joe Biden's performance in CA compare to the combined votes in the *whalloping* 53 congressional races?


    2020-12-012 CALIFORNIA results - excel table - congressional 001.png
    2020-12-012 CALIFORNIA results - excel table - congressional 002.png
    2020-12-012 CALIFORNIA results - excel table - congressional 003.png
    2020-12-012 CALIFORNIA results - excel table - congressional 004.png
    2020-12-012 CALIFORNIA results - excel table - congressional 005.png
    2020-12-012 CALIFORNIA results - excel table - congressional 006.png

    Joe Biden fared 3.3 points worse on margin in California than the 60 congressional Ds combined. Yes, I wrote 60 and not 53, for a reason. I'll get right back to that. Back to the margin disparity: when you are at a blowout margin of +30, +2 or -2 points is nothing more than statistical noise. Blowout is blowout is blowout.

    786,415 more votes were cast in the presidential race in California than in the 53 congressional races combined. Just for perspective, alone this mathematical difference in votes is just under the total raw vote from: West Virginia.

    Joe Biden scored only 25,956 more votes than the votes for the 8 D congressional candidates combined.
    However, Donald Trump scored 366,362 more votes than the vote for 8 R congressional candidates combined.
    Seems lopsided, eh? Here's why.

    In California, 7 seats were Democratic shut-outs: CA-12 (Pelosi), CA-18 (Eshoo), CA-29 (Cardenas), CA-34 (Gomez), CA-38 (Sanchez), CA-44 (Barragan) and CA-53. (Jacobs). That makes for 7 out of 53 seats where the Republican party could not score even one single vote. The scorecard for those 7 CDs combined =

    DEM 1,920,479 / REP 0.

    So, out of a 5.4 million vote lead (yes, the congressional Democrats together actually had a larger statewide raw-vote margin over the Republican Party than Biden had over Trump) statewide, 1.9 million of that came from these 7 shut-out districts, all 7 being D-shutouts. But there is more: because of the jungle primary, those CDs were shutouts, but there were 2 candidates in each race, only, in all 7 case, they were all Democrats. So, 7 CDs but 14 Democratic nominees, which is why I compared Biden's statistic not just to 53 Democratic congresssional nominees, but rather, to 60. However, Trump's statistic is actually compared to only 45 Republican congressional candidates and not 53, for the very same reason.

    Perversely enough, in spite of having 7 shutout CDs, the D statewide margin was actually just a little under 2018. Reason: the GOP took back 4 CDs that the Dems flipped in 2018.

    To be specific, the Democratic Party flipped 7 CDs in 2018: CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48 and CA-49.

    In 2020, the Democratic Party held on to: CA-10 (Harder), CA-45 (Porter) and Levin (49).

    The Republicans picked up the other four CDs and in two of them, it was the same nominee who was a former incumbent, who got beat in 2018:
    CA-21 (Valadao beat Cox after Cox beat him in 2018 ). Margin shift: 1.7 to the Right.
    CA-39 (Kim beat Cisneros after Cisneros beat her in 2019). Margin shift: 4.3 to the right
    CA-48 was an incumbent race, but Harley Rouda was beat by a new Republican, Michelle Park Steel. Margin shift: 9.2 to the right
    And CA-25 was an open race, was Katie Hill's seat from 2018, she resigned in a vicious sex-scandal, and Mike Garcia (R) beath Christie Smith. Margin shift: 8.8 to the right.

    As I wrote with Iowa, what the Lord dothly giveth can he also take away, and dothly at that. The point is that two of these Republican pick-ups were nail-biters just like they were in 2018. So, the state Republican Party, which is essentially on a ventilator these days, is still breathing. So, there's that.

    Also, 50 of 53 California congressional races were incumbent races. Only 3 were open race: CA-08, CA-25 and CA-50. 48 of those 50 incumbents retained their seats. Of those 48 incumbents, 34 D incumbents and 1 GOP incumbent won their respective races with more than 60% of the popular vote.

    Before I finish, two more things: California just saw a successful carpetbagger-race, in CA-50, where Duncan Hunter and his wife are now in jail and Darell Issa, who retired from CA-49 in 2018, came back in CA-50 in 2020 and won. His opponent, Ammar Campar-Najjar, ran this race twice and lost twice. Darell Issa, who will once again be the richest man in all of Congress, does not even live in CA-50.

    And the final point: a whole lot of Republicans who have been bitching and moaning in this year about how long it takes for some states to get their results in sure did not complain as we have waited very long to get the final results in in CA-21 and CA-39, for instance. All of a sudden, as long as one of "theirs" had a good chance to win, they didn't complain. Now, that is hyperpartisanship at it's very worst, to say the least, but it is also proof-positive that California's very strict, methodical system of electioneering works and is fair.

    With the California results having been finalized on on Friday and issued as a statement of Vote just yesterday, this now concludes my journey through all 50 states and DC in the 2020 presidential cycle.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2020
  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    So, time for the icing on the cake, but first, a walk down memory lane on this thread over the last month (11/13 to 12/13) in terms of the 2020 presidential election national popular vote:




    And now, ladies and gentlemen, eh bien, voila!:

    2020-12-013 US presidential elections - final totals from uselectionatlas-org.png

    uselectionatlas.org is considered THE source for the most accurate, confirmed electoral statistics going back a long time now.

    I went through my excel table and found I had to adjust the "other" totals slightly for about 15 states - this is because many states turn in their write-in votes after the certification. Also, a number of states first sort out the write-ins at that time and occasionally they find a write in for a major party candidate and have to reassign the vote. There are also write-in challenges, just as with other ballots.

    In a small number of cases, the numbers for the top 2 candidates were also adjusted slightly:
    Tennessee adjusted Donald Trump's total down by exactly 20,000 votes, which most likely indicates a clerical error that was caught/corrected during the double and triple checking process.

    Of course, Georgia's numbers were adjusted again, now that there was a recount and then a second recount after the certification. So were Pennsylvania's.

    North Carolina took 2 votes from Trump's total.

    In Indiana, both Biden and Trump got between 2-3 votes more.

    In Louisiana, 10 votes were added to Trump's total.

    The point is, there have been changes since the certifications, this happens every single presidential cycle, and these changes, as you can see, are miniscule.

    With that in mind, you can visit my excel tables for 2020 HERE, but for posterity's sake, here the national popular vote and the popular vote of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia:

    2020-12-013 Election 2020 national figures plus 51 units - 001.png
    2020-12-013 Election 2020 national figures plus 51 units - 002.png
    2020-12-013 Election 2020 national figures plus 51 units - 003.png
    2020-12-013 Election 2020 national figures plus 51 units - 004.png
    2020-12-013 Election 2020 national figures plus 51 units - 005.png
    2020-12-013 Election 2020 national figures plus 51 units - 006.png

    We see that Biden landed just a hair's breadth under 81.3 millon votes, I projected that he would definitely go over 81 million (he obviously did) and could go as high as 81.5 million (he didn't quite make it, but he came damned close.

    With that in mind, the highest raw vote getters of all time (all over 60,000,000 raw votes):
    2020 - Biden/Harris (D) 81,284,716
    2020 - Trump/Pence (R) 74,223,367
    2008 - Obama/Biden (D) 69,499,428
    2012 - Obama/Biden (D) 65,918,507
    2016 - Clinton/Kaine (D) 65,499,428
    2016 - Trump/Pence (R) 62,985,153
    2004 - Bush/Cheney (R) 62,039,572

    This kind of spreadsheet work allows you a very specific comparison between 2020 and 2016. For instance, in West Virginia, you can see that (row 197) Trump got 56,011 more votes in this state than in 2016, and so on and so on. For all values, columns K, L, M and N can be very interesting. Take a look at California: that state's 17,511,373 total raw-votes cast represent 11.05% of the total national popular vote and the vote in California grew by 22.94% over 2016. In column M, I allow us to do some fantasy thinking and see how many electors that percentage of the raw-vote electorate would translate to. California's 11.05% of the total national popular vote, when taken as 11.05% of 538 electors, divides out to 59.4 electors. In reality, California has 55 electors. I am not saying that it should be this way. I am saying that this is how it would be were the number of electors per state decided AFTER the final votes were tallied and then based purely on that state's % of the NPV.

    Since Maine and Nebraska split their electors, here the second tab from my 2020 online tables:

    2020-12-013 Election 2020 national figures plus 51 units - 007 (ME and NE).png

    History will record that the Democratic ticket of Joseph Robinette Biden and Kamala Devi Harris won the 2020 presidential election with both a solid majority win in the popular vote (51.27%, +4.45% winning margin) and also in the so-called "electoral college" (303-232). They did it by holding the "Clinton" states from 2016 and then flipping (or "picking up") five states plus one congressional district:

    Arizona (11 EV), Georgia (16 EV), Michigan (16 EV), Nebraska-02 (1 EV), Pennsylvania (20 EV) and Wisconsin (10 EV), for a total of +74 EV over Hillary Clinton's 232 from 2016 = 306 EV. Joe Biden promised as a candidate and then as a nominee that he would recapture the 3 upper midwest states that Trump flipped in 2016 and indeed, he kept his word, thus restoring the so-called "blue wall". More surprising was that he indeed managed to flip two very red states: Arizona and Georgia, and came very, very close in North Carolina.

    In terms of the electoral college, 2020 will go down in history as a literal mirror image of 2016:

    2016 - R 306 / D 232 (although some electors defected when the EC met)
    2020 - D 306 / R 232

    I've researched this and such a perfect mirror-image switch between two adjacent presidential cycles has never happened before, so this is a first.

    When it comes to picking-up states from the other party, the phenomonen in the last 12 years has been that only one party party has picked up states, but the other party has picked up none:

    In 2008, Obama picked up 9 states and 1 congressional district, McCain picked up none.
    In 2012, Romney picked up 2 states, Obama picked up none.
    In 2016, Trump picked up 6 states and 1 congressional district, Clinton (Hillary) picked up none.
    and in 2020, Biden picked up 5 states and 1 congressional district, Trump picked up none.

    But it was not always that way. Looking at past re-election cycles:
    In 2004, Bush (43) picked up 3 states (IA, NM and NV), Kerry picked-up 1 (NH)
    In 1996, Clinton (Bill) picked up 2 states (CO, FL), Dole picked up 2 states (AZ, GA)
    In 1984, Reagan picked up 4 states, bringing him to a 49 state sweep, Mondale picked up none.
    In 1980, Reagan picked up 15 states, Carter picked up 0
    In 1972, Nixon picked up 16 states, bringing him to a 49 state sweep, McGovern picked up none.
    In 1956, Eisenhower picked up 3 states (KY, WV and LA), Stevenson picked up 1 (MO)

    Where does the Biden/Harris ticket's winning percentage-margin line up in the grand history of things?

    2020-12-013 US presidential elections by descending margin - 001.png
    2020-12-013 US presidential elections by descending margin - 002.png

    At +4.45%, Biden's margin is more that double Clinton's 2016 NPV margin, almost double Bush's 2004 margin, also slightly larger than Obama's 2012 margin but smaller than Obama's 2008 margin. His 2020 margin is almost identical to Harry Truman's 1948 margin (+4.48%) and interestingly enough, in that year, Truman accrued 303 electoral votes (out of 530, not 538 ). Joe Biden's winning margin is the 12th largest among Democrats who won the popular vote (and the presidency) and it is the 28th largest winning percentage margin out of all 42 presidential cycles that have occurred since the GOP first participated in a national presidential election (1856).

    Back to that number of 306 electors: coming in just under or breaking over 300 electors has happened a lot in the last circa 70 years:

    1948: Truman 303 (+4.48% NPV margin)
    1960: Kennedy 303 (+0.16% NPV margin)
    1968: Nixon 301 (+0.70% NPV margin)
    1976: Carter 297 (+2.06% NPV margin)
    2016: Trump 306 (D +2.09% NPV margin - electoral backfire)
    2020: Biden 306 (+4.45% NPV margin)

    Interesting, eh?

    Tomorrow, 2020-12-014, the electors will meet in their respective states and then this thing is over with. Done. Finito. Basta. Ende. The Democratic ticket will accumulate 306 electoral votes and then, once again, Joe Biden will be declared President-Elect of the United States of America, but seriously folks....Joe Biden has won this election many times over since the call was made for Pennsylvania on November 7th, 2020. It's over. The SUPREME COURT of the United States just kicked President Trump in the ass two times in a row. Whether or not he noticed, well, who knows. As of now, I couldn't care anymore. The man hates America and has no sense of decency. He ****ed up the worst pandemic in history and just lost his re-election campaign and all he cares about is: himself.

    Further, any attempt on the part of congressional Republicans to try to stop the counting of the electoral votes in the US Senate or even the attempt to delay that process could actually result in Nancy Pelosi being sworn in as the 46th President of the USA on January 20th, 2021, so all the talk of Republicans huffing and puffing and blowing someone's house down is - as of now, pure foolishness aimed at an audience of one, namely, the King who wears no clothes and wants everyone to tell him how wonderful he is. What the current crop of congressional Republicans have done is to destroy every speck of credibility that they ever had. After January 20th, 2021, they will all be radioactive. No one will ever trust them, ever again. And Rep. Pascrell from New Jersey is actually making a very strong argument that Nancy Pelosi is well within her right to refuse to seat the more than 100 House Republicans who signed onto the Amicus Brief supporting the Texas lawsuit attempting to throw out millions of votes out of four states not named Texas. So much for Republicans actually believing in the 10th amendment. For this really IS treachery and it really IS sedition, and following the Civil War, the law was changed to prevent seditious traitors from entering the US House of Representatives (and for that matter, the Senate as well).

    This would all be so much easier were Donald Trump to actually do the right thing just for once in his life and concede defeat. Biden said that he would beat Trump like a drum at the polls in November and that is exactly what he did. A good man knows when it is time to throw in the towel and admit defeat. However, Donald Trump is neither good, nor is he a real man. So, there's that.

    It sure looks as if we will be pulling teeth every day all the way to January 20th, 2021. And that is a ****ing shame. It is sooooo Unamerican.
     
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2020
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  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The "electoral college" has given the win to Joe Biden, making him, once again, officially, President-Elect of the United States of America. There were no disloyal electors, everything ran exactly as expected, based on the certified results from each of the 50 states plus DC.

    Minutes after California put Biden over the top (he is currently at 302 electors, Hawaii has yet to vote), Atty. General Bill Barr resigned from the Trump administration and will leave his post on December 23rd.
     
  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I'm reading that soon-to-be ex-President Donald Trump is having difficulty accepting his Electoral College loss to incoming President Joe Biden and is tweeting and re-tweeting all sort of malarkey.
     
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  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    What are the last steps to finish off this thread?

    Once the decision of the 538 electors for the offices of President and Vice-President (Biden 306 / Trump 232, Harris 206 / Pence 232) is read before the US Congress on January 5th, 2021, with the current Vice-President of the USA, Mike Pence, presiding, as proscribed in the US-Constitution, regardless whether some GOPers decide to be clown-car idiots or not, Joseph Robinette Biden and Kamala Devi Harris will be declared the winners of the US General presidential election of 2020. And four about the gazillionth time in a row, Biden will have won this election.

    Then, when the congressional record of all of the election results is released (middle to late year 2021), I will compare all of those totals with what has been recorded here and am sure that there will be miniscule changes here and there, most of them having to do with the write-in vote totals.

    I've asked the mods to keep this thread stickied until the results are "ad acta" in the US congressional record, because that record is what is supposed to survive the test of time.

    Between now and then, I will be including some other interesting historical data, for comparative purposes. You may find it to be quite interesting.

    -Stat
     
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  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Gotta say, the Freepers of the world are not taking this Joe Biden win well at all. Nosiree, not well at all.

    2020-12-023 The freepers are not taking this well at all.png

    But they do adore their King of Kings and Lord of Lords, who is apparently named with the name that rhymes with Frump.
     
  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    There is a typo in that: it should also read Harris 306 / Pence 232.

    Oops.
     
  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    It just gets dumber and dumber, Part I:

    Ok, this is sad.

    In fact, this is so sad, it deserves a sad trombone:



    Scott Rasmussen, the rabidly right-wing leaning pollster who really, really, REALLY has a hard time putting out accurate polling numbers, has decided that Pence really should steal the election when the electoral votes are to be counted in January and in his 4-part tweet of brilliance, he quoted that mastermind of freedom and democracy: Josef Stalin.

    No ****. He quoted Stalin:

    Pro-Trump Pollster Quotes Stalin To Persuade Mike Pence To Act Like Him | HuffPost

    2020-12-029 Scott Rasmussen goes off the deep-end.png

    I mean, this is just plain old sad. And Scott Rasmussen just destroyed what little was left of his reputation. And for what? Glorifying a mass-murdering dictator? Stalin ordered the deaths of circa 25,000,000 Russians FOLLOWING WWII.

    This is some DEFCON-1, Marie-Antoinette, Guillotine-level-5 never pass go ever again land in hell's jail forever kind of stuff....

    Any Republicans out there want to defend Josef Stalin these days???

    Lordy, lordy....
     
  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    It just gets dumber and dumber, Part II:
    Not wanting to be outdone by super-sleuth Scott Rasmussen, another stabile genius, Louis Gohmert (R-TX) has decided to dumb one dumber: he is SUING Vice-President Pence.

    Yepp, a Republican is suing his own Vice-President.

    Louie Gohmert Sues Mike Pence, Says He Cannot Accept Electoral Votes From Contested States - National File

    Rep. Gohmert Sues Pence in Last-Ditch Attempt to Overturn Election Results | National Review

    Louie Gohmert sues Pence in far-fetched bid to overturn election results on Jan. 6 (dallasnews.com)

    Specifically, Louie the Gummi-Bear Gohmie - the brilliant one, I tell you!!- is suing to have the Electoral Count Act of 1887 be nullified by a judge, so that Pence would not be required to read the actual amount of electors for each of the nominees. Further, Gohmert wants the judge (a Trump appointee, but lordy, no one is this dumb) to declare that Mike Pence alone gets to decide who will be President and Vice-President come January 20th, 2020.

    Now, apart from the Electoral Count Act of 1887 (which has a lot to do with the electoral steal of 1876 and the two extremely close gilded-age elections of 1880 and 1884), what exactly does the US-Constitution say about electoral count day 2021?

    That's it. One sentence. That was extremely exciting. I think I felt a slight tingle go down my leg.

    This is such a low-level function that Pence doesn't even have to be there to do it.

    So, even if a judge would be hairbrained enought to vicariously overturn a law that's been on the books for over 130 years now, the next judge up the food-chain would likely strike down his judgement. In order to save what little is left of Mike Pence's face these days, I suspect that the judge will set a date of, say, March 12th, 2021, to hear the case....

    As for Mike Pence, he is stuck between a rock and a hard-place, which, for a closet gay guy, is maybe not the worst thing that could happen to the smooth talking power-bottom of Washington. If he plays his role as he should, the Trumpkins of the world will hate him for all eternity and he can kiss his 2024 changes goodbye. Newsflash: Nicki Haley just got a major tingle down her leg. If he does try to mess with the electoral vote, all hell will break loose, at the end of the day, Biden/Harris will still have been elected and in the not all-too-distant-future, Pence will be standing before a Tribunal, charged with Conspiracy against the United States of America. Oh well, at least he will have time to memorize Scott Rasmussen's Stalin quote.

    And children, what do we learn from this most awesome electoral adventure? We learn:

    #ETTD

    Everything Trump Touches Dies.

    I think we need that sad trombone again

     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2020
  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Just a small Georgia update:

    2020-12-030 cough cough.png
     
    Curious Always likes this.
  25. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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