34% of economists in survey expect a US recession in 2021

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Lee S, Aug 19, 2019.

  1. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    https://www.oregonlive.com/nation/2...-in-survey-expect-a-us-recession-in-2021.html

    It seems like there is a new story every couple of weeks about the impending financial collapse caused by President Trump. I bring this particular story to your attention because of the headline, '34% of economists in survey expect a US recession in 2021' of the linked article. I find this headline very strange. Couldn't the headline just as easily stated 66% of economists in a survey do not believe a recession is imminent? So why choose a headline that is ultimately deceptive? Is the main stream media invested in the failure of the economy if it means Trump will not get re-elected? And why do we get the 'recession is going to happen next month' stories on such a regular basis based upon usually one person's opinion? Why is there such a disparity in the impression that the media is creating that economists believe there is a recession just around the corner, while this study with a large poll sample of economists show almost no support for the notion that a recession will happen this year?

    Perhaps this isn't a clear case of media bias, call it fake news if you want to, and there is some other logical explanation. If there is a blind spot in this notion, I invite you to offer some other plausible explanaiton.
     
  2. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    So 66% do not expect a recession?
     
  3. MissingMayor

    MissingMayor Well-Known Member

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    No. 2% think it will happen by the end of this year. 38% think it will happen in 2020. So that leaves 24% in question.
     
  4. MissingMayor

    MissingMayor Well-Known Member

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    Try reading the article, not the headline. :gop:
     
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  5. Cubed

    Cubed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I hate it when the News Media talks about a survey but fails to link to it

    https://files.constantcontact.com/668faa28001/2f0b98b4-3c7e-47e3-ade5-9887542aa300.pdf

     
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  6. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    From your source, “Thirty-four percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report being released Monday, said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That's up from 25% in a survey taken in February. Only 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while 38% predict that it will occur in 2020.

    So that means 74% of economists believe a recession is imminent within the next three years — that’s probably why the title is not “66% of economists in a survey do not believe a recession is imminent.” The correct number is 26% do not believe it is imminent.
     
  7. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    I am not sure that your statement is correct. The same respondants had the opportunity to vote for 2019, 2020, and 2021. Adding the percentages together does not take into consideration the overlap. As Cubed stated, it would be nice to have a link to the original study so we could find out how many economists thought a recession is likely in the next three years.
     
  8. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    I understand what you are getting at, but the headline is the whole point of my OP. Quite a few people do not bother reading the article and they get most of their news from skimming headlines. If they read the headline and thought that economists are predicting a recession, based upon the headline, then they are getting the exact opposite message of what the article is actually saying. And this would be a pretty understandable error. So why did a news agency use the title they did, if it seems to be deceptive by design?
     
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  9. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Unfortunately we live in an era where clicks = income.
    Deceptive, outright false and fearmongering headlines exist to generate as much income as possible
     
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  10. Nunya D.

    Nunya D. Well-Known Member

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    So.....

    The number of economist that thought a recession would hit in 2019 is down from 10% to 2%
    The number of economists that think a recession will hit in 2020 is down from 42% to 38%.
    The number of economist that think a recession will hit in 2021 is up from 25% to 34%.
    The number of economist the think a recession will hit after 2021 is up from 11% to 14%.

    This can be seen as economist being optimistic about the economy. Many that thought a recession was just around the corner are now predicting a recession being further out.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2019
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  11. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    I cannot disagree with what you are saying, and anyone would be naive to think otherwise. If income was the only motive, however, one would think that you would see deceptive headlines going in both directions. We would have stories of unicorns and rainbows in store from the economy as well as tales of doom. Yet in the instance of the linked headline, it is deceptively gloom, with no butterflies unless you read the actually article.
     
  12. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    This is a great post. You used a thoughtful analysis of the facts to come up with a practical and useful hypothesis which is what the article should have done. Digging into the meat of the data served you well but I feel you are very much an exception to the rule. Most people see the headline and say there is a recession just around the corner and leave it at that, when in fact, the article is saying the exact opposite of the editorialized headline.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2019
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  13. Pred

    Pred Well-Known Member

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    It’s scary how the MSM is now turning the screws saying recession recession recession over and over again, HOPING their fear mongering will cause one. Because they know they need horrible things to happen to win. The LAST thing they want is anything prosperous or good. They want chaos and anger and desperation. The good of the country and people is not the priority. Winning is the ONLY priority it seems and it doesn’t matter how many eggs they need to break to get it.

    They tried with Russia, pushing that **** to embarrass the presidency. Now it’s racism. That will continue until 2020. Creating hysteria about the economy now to stop people from spending and sell stock to slow things down seems to be the goal now.

    How much lower can one sink? I’m reminded of Hurricane analysts predicting X number of major storms hitting us each year, which didn’t happen. Yet, they still have jobs? Weird. In my
    profession if I’m wrong over and over again or screw up, I’m punished;)
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2019
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  14. MissingMayor

    MissingMayor Well-Known Member

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    So your complaint is about the headline? Then your OP is deceptive and this is probably not the right place to discuss this. This is the "Current Events" folder. Aren't we supposed to discuss current events instead of bitching about headlines? That seems to be more of an "Opinion".
     
  15. Nunya D.

    Nunya D. Well-Known Member

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    Myself, I would say that misleading news articles are certainly "Current Events".....and ALL of our comments in any thread are just opinions.
     
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  16. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    Ha Ha predicting a recession is fools gold. They are betting on the 10 year cycle, they also claimed it would crash when trump got elected, then when NK and Trump were talking about blowing each other up, then when he broke the Iran deal, then when the first tariff hit, on and on and on. These so called economist are worse than weathermen at predicting.
     
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  17. EMTdaniel86

    EMTdaniel86 Banned

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    That is the interesting thing about economics, it isn't an exact science.
     
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  18. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    So, a hundred percent do not expect one before the election and 2/3rds don't expect one the year after.
     
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  19. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    :heart: to see a study

    on the economic effects of

    fear mongering a recession!
    :hmm:


    Moi
    :oldman:





    Canada-3.png
     
  20. Doofenshmirtz

    Doofenshmirtz Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Recession is overdue IMO. I predict the average investor will run and sell, locking in their losses. People like Warren Buffet and Ray Dalio will make a ton of money.
     
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  21. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    I predict they will fail at this, just as they failed at:
    • Defeating Trump
    • Russian Collusion
    • Forcing his resignation.
     
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  22. Mrlucky

    Mrlucky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Leftist cable news media gets it but so far the leftist candidates they handle don't.

    MSNBC anchor on possible economic downturn : 'About time we get a recession'

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/recession-dow-jones-trump-economy-msnbc
     
  23. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    02% expect a recession in 2019
    38% expect a recession in 2020
    34% expect a recession in 2021
    74% expect a recession in the next 2.5 years

    I’m not surprised you believe those numbers look good
     
  24. EMTdaniel86

    EMTdaniel86 Banned

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    Delete
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2019
  25. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    So compare the Republican response to the 2001 recession and the Democrat response to the 2008 recession and leading up to them. Who would you rather have in control?
     

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