59 divisions in Philly with no votes for Romney a statistical possibility?

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by dickens, Aug 23, 2022.

  1. dickens

    dickens Newly Registered

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    A viral meme had stated that no votes for Romney in 59 divisions in Philadelphia is a mathematical and statistical impossibility. PolitiFact, a publication of Poynter Institute, had analyzed the claim and ruled it a "Pants on Fire."

    PolitiFact based its judgment on small numbers of registered Republicans in those divisions:
    "Some of the 59 divisions had fewer than 10 registered Republicans, according to records from April 2012. The average number of registered Republicans in these divisions was 17. "

    The number 17 is indeed not big, not hundreds or thousands. But 59×17=1003. What is the probability that all 1003 registered Republicans in 59 divisions in question did not vote? A calculation leads to 10^(-381) figure. Or in other words it is zero.

    PolitiFact's "Pants on Fire" ruling was unfounded.
     
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  2. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    if the probability that a republican did not vote was .99 the probability that all of them didn't vote is .00004
     
  3. dickens

    dickens Newly Registered

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  4. WhoDatPhan78

    WhoDatPhan78 Banned

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    Statistics don't work so well at making predictions when humans are involved.
     
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  5. dickens

    dickens Newly Registered

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    Why it does work for Russian elections and ceases to work for the US ones?
     
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  6. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Fake election claims by defeated Republican candidates have become routine since Loser Trump, unable to handle the truth, started dumping on democracy, and refuses to stop.

    The Blowhard has his clinging lickspittles and hyperbolic screaming mimis in ideological entertainment media, but actual legal redress is the criterion by which Americans must assess the sniveling by the whiners.

    Trump braying his victim card, a ludicrous stolen "Landslide!", lacked the credible evidence that courts of appeal demand. After vote tabulations, recounts, audits, investigations, and court challenges all affirm the will of the People, losers raving about elections is merely flatulence. In some instances, the bellywhingers anticipate that, and go straight to their pissing and moaning without taking the legal options available to them that they know would be futile.

    The once-respectable GOP has been infested with RINO's of Trumpery, and in in thrall to the Cry Baby Loser. His weird worshipers rage against the Democratic Party and traditional conservatives they believe are possessed by demonic forces whom they they see as persecuting their phony deity. Exposing his perfidy is not a partisan enterprise:

    Screen Shot 2022-08-26 at 7.18.22 AM.png
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2022
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  7. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And the article went on to state how those numbers of Republicans were just plain wrong.

    Your work used those garbage numbers. Garbage in, garbage out.
     
  8. dickens

    dickens Newly Registered

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    Sorry those are official numbers of registered Republicans. If they are garbage then everything else is garbage. Including official election results.

    They checked only two people. And wrote that one moved out and another said that they put him as a Republican when he is actually a Democrat. They should have checked all 1003 of registered Republicans. Or a large part of them.

    Also if you consider Democrats registered by mistake as Republicans and you are honest you should also check for Republicans registered by mistake as Democrats.
     
  9. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

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    Do you have any input about this actual thread topic instead of just another orange man bad rant? Isn't there about 10,000 threads around here you can take that one too without derailing this one?
     
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  10. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    I look to substantive allegations rather than hyper-partisan hype.

    Did candidate Romney make allegations of voter fraud?

    Were any such claims adjudicated?
     
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  11. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    Which leaves out the possibility that the Republican candidate was so disliked, that registered Republicans either voted for the opposition, voted for write
    in candidate, or left that particular section of the ballot empty. It happens.
     
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  12. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Since your conclusion there in no way follows from your premise, your arguement still faceplants.

    That's right, everyone _must_ cater to your conspiracy theories. And no, that doesn't make you sound entitled at all. Really it doesn't.
     
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  13. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    A meme? Do you know meme's are not factual.


    ...
    Definition of meme


    1 : an amusing or interesting item (such as a captioned picture or video) or genre of items that is spread widely online especially through social media
     
  14. dickens

    dickens Newly Registered

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    A picture for you

    [​IMG]
     
  15. dickens

    dickens Newly Registered

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    If you can't trust one set of data from elections committee why you should trust the other?

    In the case of Russian elections such anomalies were considered a sure sign of voter fraud by Washington Post.

    "United Russia’s reported election results are so improbable as to violate Gauss’s groundbreaking work on statistics."

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...tion-inquiry/2011/12/11/gIQAmBR8nO_story.html

    and estimates that ten millions votes were fraudulent

    https://web.archive.org/web/2012020...as-between-10000000-and-20000000-votes/128218

    Was Washington Post spreading conspiracy theories?

    Compare Russian elections

    [​IMG]
    to Michigan elections

    [​IMG]
     
  16. dickens

    dickens Newly Registered

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    You mean disliked by all 1003 of the Republicans? And if you consider Republicans voting for a Democrat and you are honest you should also consider a possibility of a Democrat voting for a Republican.
     
  17. JonK22

    JonK22 Well-Known Member

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    Stop the lie

    Some of the 59 divisions had fewer than 10 registered Republicans, according to records from April 2012. The average number of registered Republicans in these divisions was 17. The Philadelphia Inquirer sought out many of these voters after the election, and found that the rolls could use some updating. Some, neighbors said, had moved, others straight-up told the Inquirer they didn’t know the city had them down as GOPers. One man told the paper while he was a Republican, he had never actually voted that way.


    Experts say these divisions reflect a trend of heavily Democratic inner-city neighborhoods. Considering how few Republicans live in these micro-neighborhoods, it’s not shocking that Romney would have a tough go of it against the nation’s first black president, in 59 subzones that only represented a mere 3.5 percent of the city’s vote in aggregate.

    Commissioner Al Schmidt told Billy Penn last week that in order for there to have been voter fraud, by adding votes in these divisions would have required "hundreds of people engaging in a conspiracy, and no one finding out about it."
    https://www.politifact.com/factchec...et-philly-rigged-2012-presidential-election-/


    It’s not mathematically impossible. The 59 districts are in areas of the city that are mainly African American, as the Philadelphia Inquirer reported. And Obama received 93 percent of the black vote nationwide.

    In 2008, Obama received 100 percent of the vote in 57 districts in Philadelphia. So it was not that unusual that something similar happened this time around. In fact, Inquirer reporters had a tough time tracking down any registered Republicans in these areas.

    To be clear, these districts make up a small subset of all of Philadelphia. The 59 that went 100 percent for Obama in 2012 constitute 19,605 votes, just 3 percent of the total votes cast in the city.
    https://www.factcheck.org/2013/01/voting-conspiracies/


    Although voter registration lists, which often contain outdated information, show 12 Republicans live in the [28th] ward’s third division, The Inquirer was unable to find any of them by calling or visiting their homes.

    Four of the registered Republicans no longer lived there; four others didn’t answer their doors. City Board of Elections registration data say a registered Republican used to live at 25th and York Streets, but none of the neighbors across the street knew him.

    James Norris, 19, who lives down the street, is listed as a Republican in city data. But he said he’s a Democrat and voted for Obama because he thinks the president will help the middle class.

    A few blocks away, Eric Sapp, a 42-year-old chef, looked skeptical when told that city data had him listed as a registered Republican. “I got to check on that,” said Sapp, who voted for Obama.

    Eighteen Republicans reportedly live in the nearby 15th Division, according to city registration records. The 15th has the distinction of pitching two straight Republican shutouts — zero votes for McCain in 2008, zero for Romney. Oh, and 13 other city divisions did the same thing in 2008 and 2012.

    Three of the 15th’s registered Republicans were listed as living in the same apartment, but the tenant there said he had never heard of them. The addresses of several others could not be found.

    On West Albert Street, Duke Dunston says he knows he’s a registered Republican, but he’s never voted for one.
    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/2012-voter-fraud/
     
  18. JonK22

    JonK22 Well-Known Member

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    Take North Philadelphia's 28th Ward, third division, bounded by York, 24th, and 28th Streets and Susquehanna Avenue.

    About 94 percent of the 633 people who live in that division are black. Seven white residents were counted in the 2010 census.

    In the entire 28th Ward, Romney received only 34 votes to Obama's 5,920.

    Although voter registration lists, which often contain outdated information, show 12 Republicans live in the ward's third division, The Inquirer was unable to find any of them by calling or visiting their homes.

    ...Eighteen Republicans reportedly live in the nearby 15th Division, according to city registration records. The 15th has the distinction of pitching two straight Republican shutouts - zero votes for McCain in 2008, zero for Romney on Tuesday. Oh, and 13 other city divisions did the same thing in 2008 and 2012.

    Three of the 15th's registered Republicans were listed as living in the same apartment, but the tenant there said he had never heard of them. The addresses of several others could not be found.


    ...Nationally, 93 percent of African Americans voted for Obama, according to exit polls, so it's not surprising that in some parts of Philadelphia, the president did even better than that.

    In 2008, McCain got zero votes in 57 Philadelphia voting divisions. That was a big increase from 2004, when George W. Bush was blanked in just five divisions.


    As the first African American president, Obama held immense appeal to black voters, but skin color is only part of the story, said Mark Sawyer, a political science professor at UCLA.
    Previous Republican candidates, including Richard Nixon and Jack Kemp, supported affirmative action and urban development, but their party has abandoned those stances, Sawyer said.

    Romney's comments, including talking about people who want "more free stuff from the government" after a visit to the NAACP, only further distanced African Americans who felt the comments played to stereotypes about welfare, Sawyer said.

    https://archive.ph/45JnN#selection-801.0-809.237
     
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  19. dickens

    dickens Newly Registered

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    Good. Now in one precinct all 580 voters voted for Obama. The probability of such an event is 0.93^580 = 5 * 10^(-19). Any objections?
     
  20. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You know, I am thinking with only 1003 registered Republicans, it shouldn't be too difficult to ask them if they voted for Romney in the prior election.

    It is easy to imagine that Romney would not have been very popular in the Philadelphia area, even among Republicans. And then combined with all the negative media coverage in that area. But it strains credibility and belief that Romney would not have received a single vote in so many precincts, each one averaging 17 registered Republicans.

    Calculating statistical probabilities in cases like this can be rather complicated. More than anyone reading this thread is going to take the trouble to think about and understand. But I do think common sense and intuition points to it very probably being exceedingly unlikely.
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2022
  21. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Of course its pants of fire false. Certain factions are working overtime to undermine people's trust in democracy. Their efforts are not wasted, because lot of people feel they don't want to participate in something that has become a joke due to those 'factions'. I don't plan to vote.

    These are all-black divisions, so even if these guys are registered Republicans, they probably didn't want to vote against the nations first black candidate, so I'm guessing they didn't vote at all. But sure, whoever is spreading these "news" should go and ask them, instead of claiming its impossible.
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2022
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  22. JonK22

    JonK22 Well-Known Member

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    The one where 98% were black? Weird the right wing and you still don't accept reality that GOP hosed themselves after Dubya with POC

    Kiss my 8ss probability BS, It's a predominately black part of the city. First black Prez
     
  23. JonK22

    JonK22 Well-Known Member

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    I linked the article earlier they did try to find the Repugathans

    here try reading

    https://archive.ph/45JnN#selection-801.0-809.237
     
  24. dickens

    dickens Newly Registered

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    I assumed that it is 100% black and used your own number that 93% of blacks voted for Obama. Probability that all 580 people voted for Obama is 5 * 10^(-19).

    Do you have any objections other than emotional ones?
     
  25. JonK22

    JonK22 Well-Known Member

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    Besides the FACT that not one time have ANYONE proven there was fraud in those small precincts? Nope

    Of course we aren't Russia where we outlaw political enemies and news we don't like Comrade
     

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