A Jewish Liberal strong pro-Union Democrat just landslided in a state seat in Ruby-Red Oklahoma

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Sep 13, 2017.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    http://newsok.com/democrats-win-special-election-in-norman/article/5563866

    Jacob Rosencrants just flipped OK-State-46 from R to D, a shift of 41.6 points over last year.

    [​IMG]

    Rosencrants won by +20.8%, a massive landslide win, in a state Rep District where a Republican incumbent beat Rosencrants also by +20.8% in 2016. That is quite literally a 41.6 point shift and involves the same Democratic candidate both times, in a State Rep District that has been strongly Republican for 22 straight years.

    Now, that's just over 5,000 votes in a district where 17,000+ votes were cast in the 2016 election for this office. So, off-year, less voter turnout, the usual 9 yards. Still, a big win is a big win and this one was absolutely unexpected, of all places, in one of the very reddest parts of Oklahoma.

    Here's a good overview of the district:

    https://statisticalatlas.com/state-lower-legislative-district/Oklahoma/District-46/Overview

    Interesting information.

    Also, a Democrat won in a special election in New Hampshire yesterday as well.

    -Stat
     
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  2. GoogleMurrayBookchin

    GoogleMurrayBookchin Banned

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    Oklahoma has a radical history. Woody Guthrie was a proud Okie. I despise the democrats because they assimilate and neuter radical movements, but I'm just resentful of the idea that rural americans are backwards hicks. Appalachia is the home of the Harlan County War, where unnionized miners resisted violent strikebreakers. Alabama had a fairly active communist party in the 30s (See the book Hammer and Hoe).

    The right-wing dominance of the rural areas of the US is largely a result of voter apathy because poor people are smart enough to not bother voting when it's hopeless anyway, as well as the southern strategy permanently winning the racist vote to the republicans. The only people energized to vote end up being the right wingers.
     
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  3. Sanskrit

    Sanskrit Well-Known Member

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    To see through this perpetually biased OP's "dishonest in emphasis and via omission" thread title (no one "flipped" anything), and "analysis" that omits necessary context, you need to know the following things that OP doesn't bother to mention because they detract from the partisan point he is attempting and failing.

    1. This was not a general election. It was an "Unexpired Term" election due to a popular Republican incumbent, who drubbed this same Democrat candidate in 2016, resigning office to do something else. Even someone as irredeemably biased and unobjective as OP will be forced to admit that such middle-of-the-term special elections aren't dispositive of much, certainly not any kind of shifting trends. Yet for some reason, OP doesn't deal with that at all. Hmm.
    2. The GOP primary for the unexpired term election was a three way. The Democrat ran unopposed. This context is -extremely- important, because in such elections, people tend to stay home when their primary candidate doesn't win. Not always the case, but is in many elections, and it is NECESSARY context. Of course, OP omits this, it detracts from their unfounded subtextual claim that this election signals growing support for Democrats generally, the illusory narrative of a huge Democrat "flip."

    Didn't bother to look at the NH election, enough omitted from the OP post to discredit the whole thread's intended premise. This OP is generally an easy slam dunk. I wouldn't take anything this OP posts here at face value, they display a well-documented, extreme bias masquerading as objective numerical and statistical analysis. Bias is fine (we all have them), the underlined is not. Democrats could very well be gaining momentum, nothing this OP posts will be useful in making that determination though. Draw your own conclusions of course.
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2017
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  4. Antiduopolist

    Antiduopolist Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for your take, Sanskrit!
     
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  5. CKW

    CKW Well-Known Member

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    Oklahoma is a red state. That said, It used to be majority democrat just a few years ago. Now it's roughly 50/50 with republicans beginning to show an edge. I wouldn't assume our commonsense culture changing anytime soon.
     
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    It is true that in OK, the partisan affiliation was majority Democratic, but those are vastly very conservative Democrats who have been voting Republican at the local, state and national level for a while. The last time this state was a true battleground state was in 1976.
     
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Please do continue to bellyache, it is very entertaining. I never even used the word "flip"

    LOL

    LOL
     
  8. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Is it a Jewish district?

     
  9. Sanskrit

    Sanskrit Well-Known Member

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    Emphasis added.

    Such an easy slam dunk. LOL. No credibility whatsoever.
     
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  10. CKW

    CKW Well-Known Member

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    It's not a battle ground state. But our democrats will vote in republicans and democrats depending on local issues.

    In one primarily Democratic district, the voters brought into office Republican Tom Coburn, and then Democrat Brad Carson, and then Democrat Danial Boran, and finally Republican Markwayne Mullen.

    Rosencrants was a teacher. Education is a hot topic right now in Oklahoma.. He was probably the better candidate and resonated with the voters on local issues.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2017
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  11. Jimmy79

    Jimmy79 Banned

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    State legislature elections have a lot to do with personality and name recognition, as well voter intensity. As usual, the party not in power has more intensity. To really understand if this, or any other special election, has weight you have to understand the candidates and campaigns. I have no info either way on either candidate.
     
  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    No.
     
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  13. Ned Lud

    Ned Lud Banned

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    Aren't rural Americans backward hicks, whatever their past? The evidence seems to back the notion - and our constituency, where we practically rioted when they showed Churchill making an election speech and missed electing the leader of the CP by a thousand votes at least still votes Labour or Plaid Cymru!
     
  14. Texas Republican

    Texas Republican Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Even in the reddest states, there are blue neighborhoods. And even in the bluest states, there are solid pockets of red.
     
  15. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    What does being a Jew have to do with anything?
     
  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    In a district with almost no jews at all.
    I myself am Jewish.
     
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  17. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    Do
    So lefties can decide when a persons religion matters and when it doesn't

    If the guy was a pervert who was caught molesting little boys you would scream like hell if the headline read "Jewish pedophile arrested"
     
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  18. Ned Lud

    Ned Lud Banned

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    You live in a weird world. It is to be presumed that as thugs and racists vote for Trump, so Jewish people would vote for someone Jewish, surely? Where's the problem?
     
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  19. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    You are not making sense
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2017
  20. Injeun

    Injeun Well-Known Member

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    While the people who live there would know best. As one from the outside I would look for fraud because 42 points just too big of a change.
     
  21. TheGreatSatan

    TheGreatSatan Banned

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    Knowing that the collective is totally cool with cheating/rigging elections, I have no doubt fraud took place. Maybe the Russians hacked the election?
     
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  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Oh, please. You really do whine a whole helluva lot. Anything productive to add to the debate, or is trolling the only thing you have?
     
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  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    That is the correct statistical value.

    It's really very simple math.

    The swing is calculated by subtracting the margin from a the next previous election from the margin out of the current election.

    Since the Republican won this state seat by +20.8 points last year, that's the second value.
    Since the Democrat von this seat last week by +20.8 points, that is a -20.8 value for the Republican (you always compare like party to like party) and is the first value

    -20.8 -20.8 = -41.6 shift for the Republican party, which at the same time means a +41.6 shift TOWARD the Democratic Party.

    So yes, based on the two election results, the margin shifted 41.6 points in the direction of the Democratic party.

    Another example:

    In 2000, George W. Bush lost the national popular vote by 0.52 points. His value, -0.52, is the second value.
    In 2004, he won the NPV by +2.46 points. That's the first value:

    2.46 - (-0.52) = 2.98

    So, the national swing from 2000 to 2004 was 2.98 points in the direction of the Republican Party.

    It's really that simple. All you have to be able to do is to subtract, or maybe even add....
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2017
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  24. AlifQadr

    AlifQadr Well-Known Member

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  25. navigator2

    navigator2 Banned

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    It's a STATE seat. Whoop de do. :roll: In local and state elections people tend to overlook party and vote for the person. Perhaps he's a great man?
     

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