A recession likely to occur...

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Arkanis, Jun 19, 2019.

  1. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    Like all Republican Presidents since Bush 41, Trump will have inherited a healthy economy to leave a recession behind him.

    This is despite a historically low unemployment rate and tax cuts that will not ultimately benefit the middle class, since household consumption has declined over the past 18 months.

    Debt has exploded under Trump, greatly reducing the room for economic stimulus.

    ______________________

    Fed scraps its 'patient' interest rate approach in prelude to potential cut

    Consumer spending held up in May but job gains were disappointing, and some gauges of business sentiment have cooled on uncertainty around the outlook for trade. The Fed remains bedevilled by inflation continuing to undershoot the central bank’s 2 per cent target despite unemployment being at a 49-year low.

    _______________________

    That is the topline finding of a report released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics. The survey, based on responses by 53 economists, is a leading barometer of where the US business community thinks the economy is headed.
    "Increased trade protectionism is considered the primary downwide risk to growth by a majority of the respondents," Gregory Daco, chief US economist for Oxford Economics, said in a statement. The report found what it called a "surge" in recession fears among the economists.

    The report comes as the United States ratchets up its trade war with China and has gone after other major trading partners, including Mexico and India.

    The risk of recession happening soon remains low but will "rise rapidly" next year. The survey's respondents said the risk of recession starting in 2019 is only 15% but 60% by the end of 2020. About a third of respondents forecast a recession will begin halfway through next year.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/03/economy/us-recession-risk-nabe/index.html



     
  2. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Trump is hoping it waits until he is out of office, it may, it took 8 years after Bush was elected to happen, and he almost made it
     
  3. HTownMarine

    HTownMarine Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Is this the same recession that was supposed to take place after Trump was elected?
     
  4. nra37922

    nra37922 Well-Known Member

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    No. This is the New and Improved version. Kind of like the Old Coke, New Coke, Old Coke switcharoo...
     
  5. Smartmouthwoman

    Smartmouthwoman Bless your heart Past Donor

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    Here we go again... wishin and hopin for some disaster to strike the US so they can blame Trump for something!

    Bet y'all really want it to happen before election day, huh?

    :deadhorse:
     
  6. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    When things are going well, it's thanks to Trump.

    When things go wrong, he's not responsible.

    He had promised growth of at least 5%, we had 2.9% in 2018.... with the largest tax cuts in the US history (that's what trump says).

    The most optimistic estimates predict 1.9% by the end of 2019.

    Do you think it'll be enough for Trump to brag about being the greatest economic genius ever?
     
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2019
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  7. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    even if they crashed the economy like they did in 07 to put obama in, it won't work again.

    the President is here to stay with a long legacy of successors like Reagan
     
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2019
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  8. Doofenshmirtz

    Doofenshmirtz Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It is likely the sun will rise in the morning! Maybe CNN can scare people into selling and running like sheep so the dems can benefit from all the suffering! Yay!
     
  9. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    America's CFOs are increasingly betting that the U.S. economyOpens a New Window. will enter a recession within one year, according to a survey published on Wednesday.

    The Duke University and CFO Global Business Outlook study found that 48.1 percent of U.S. CFOs believe the nation will be in recession by the second-quarter of 2020; about 69 percent believe a recession will have begun by the end of next year. It’s the third consecutive quarter that CFOs have warned a recession could hit by 2020.

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/are-we-heading-into-a-recession-us-cfos
     
  10. MolonLabe2009

    MolonLabe2009 Banned

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    Why does the left want a recession?
     
  11. Doofenshmirtz

    Doofenshmirtz Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    How far can a dog run into the woods?
     
  12. MolonLabe2009

    MolonLabe2009 Banned

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    This only means one thing and that is the left are getting very desperate.
     
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  13. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    Want? No.

    But if that happens, this will the proof of Trump's failure.

    And no one wants a President who's bad for the economy.
     
  14. Pred

    Pred Well-Known Member

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    So when the recession happens will it suddenly shift from Obama’s economy Trump inherited, to its all Trumps fault?
     
  15. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    Dems keep praying for that recession! Hahaha
     
  16. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    Yes.

    Obama hasn't started a trade war and hasn't pursued protectionist policies that have slowed domestic consumption.
     
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  17. apexofpurple

    apexofpurple Well-Known Member

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    If your goal was to type a fact then 'health economy' and 'recession' need to swap places.
     
  18. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    I don't think so.

    Under Obama, growth was sustained as was inflation. The unemployment rate fell from 9.5% in 2008 to 4.7% in 2016.

    Debt was under control and government revenues were sufficient to support the economy in the event of a slowdown.

    Trump has exploded the debt and despite his tax cuts, the economy couldn't do better than a 2.9% in 2018.

    The best forecast is 1.6% by the end of 2019.

    In short, we are going into a recession and Trump accelerated things.
     
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  19. Smartmouthwoman

    Smartmouthwoman Bless your heart Past Donor

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    All that has absolutely nothing to do with my post. I claim you & CNN are crying THE SKY IS FALLING, THE SKY IS FALLING just like you have for the last 2-1/2 yrs.

    How disappointed will you be if nothing bad happens and the American people continue to prosper?
     
  20. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't matter what I think.

    And you have no argument to contradict the data I have presented.
     
  21. Smartmouthwoman

    Smartmouthwoman Bless your heart Past Donor

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    You've presented your opinions (or more accurately, the opinions of CNN, The View, et al)

    But you got one thing right... doesnt really matter what you think. Our economy is strong, unemp is historically low, wages are historically high, working people are thriving. Must be very painful for sufferers of TDS. Bless your heart.

    FB_IMG_1557935074215.jpg
     
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  22. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    That's true, but growth remains weak.

    Only 2.9% in 2018. 3.1% for the first quarter of 2019.

    The forecast for the 2nd and 3rd quarter is 2.1%. And 1.6% for the beginning of 2020.

    A famished growth considering the historically low unemployment rate.

    This shows that consumption has slowed down, mainly because of the tariffs imposed by Trump.

    And the debt has exploded...... But this is something you don't want to know.

    Anyway, even if the Trumpsters deny it, a recession is coming.
     
  23. Smartmouthwoman

    Smartmouthwoman Bless your heart Past Donor

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    Keep your fingers crossed... maybe millions will lose their life savings and Joe Biden will fly in to save the day... and cure cancer.
     
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  24. Bearack

    Bearack Well-Known Member

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    I remember the left continuing to blame Bush for the real estate bubble when this was was a product of the Clinton Administration deregulation of the financial markets and primarily of the rewriting of the Community Reinvestment Act which put added pressure on banks to lend in low-income neighborhoods.
     
  25. Pollycy

    Pollycy Well-Known Member

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    Both Idiot "W" Bush and Idiot "Messiah" Obama presided over an American economy that was completely hijacked by the Federal Reserve central bank combine, beginning in summer 2007. Neither of those negligent presidential idiots had any real effect on anything in the economy -- it was the Fed -- and it continues to be so. Trump has tried to fix some of the more egregious problems and make the tax code a little bit more fair, but it actually amounts to nothing compared to the overpowering, smothering control projected by the Fed!

    Today we see an American economy that is run completely on the whims of the Fed, which continues to manipulate the U. S. Dollar and stifle interest rates -- while at the same time stubbornly retaining a FIVE TRILLION DOLLAR BALANCE SHEET, because of its dogged determination to 'rescue' the "too-big-to-fail" during the last recession, and, to keep more 'air' pumped into its gigantic (and growing) fraud-balloon.

    Thus: no, there won't a recession... the Fed won't allow it. They'll continue flooding the world with non-existent, virtually 'free' money for as long as it takes to overcome any market 'hiccups'. Some day this half-assed, insane economic joyride is going to end in REAL catastrophe, but for the time being, enjoy the sheer fun of it all and don't worry about what central banks are doing! :party:
     
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