An AH scenario, Japanese avoid WWII

Discussion in 'History & Past Politicians' started by Aleksander Ulyanov, Mar 15, 2022.

  1. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    Neither of these cases was precipitated by a completely unwarned surprise attack. The Japanese DID try to warn of the attack about 30 minutes before it was done but this was delayed because the Japanese Ambassador was such a poor typist! In any case it was a truly infamous and largely unprovoked (at least directly) attack on our sovereign territory. The three you mention were also cases where we were aiding allies. There was really nothing like the degree of commitment that a direct attack on us should have warranted.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2022
  2. Farnsworth

    Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    The US was already going to enter the war if Japan attacked British and Dutch interests in Asia, regardless of Pearl. FDR had already felt out that with Congress and the Senate beforehand and knew he could get a declaration of war on that basis.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2022
  3. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You think the US blockade of oil to Japan, that came before that, wasn't an infringement on their sovereignty?
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2022
  4. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    It was an Embargo, not a blockade, wasn't it? And no, refusing to sell someone something is not an actual attack on their sovereign territory no matter how much they need it.
     
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  5. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    It was much more than just oil.

    First, the oil in the Spratley's and other islands was not even extractable at that time. The first off-shore oil rigs would not even be "invented" until after the war in 1947.

    They also needed rubber, another key military supply.

    Even more silly, you specifically mention Palawan Island. You know who controls that island, right? The Philippines, which in 1941 meant the US. So if they had gone after that island, that would have meant war with the US.

    The fact is, Japan did not want to fight the UK, and especially not the US. But they needed the Dutch East Indies for their resources. And they were not about to go after those, with the US sitting right across their supply lines in the Philippines.
     
  6. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    So couldn't they have negotiated for the oil and rubber?
     
  7. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    The Oil Embargo was announced roughly 6 months into Japanese preparations to attack the US fleet in Hawaii. The rough timeline was already established, modifications being made to torpedo's to operate in the shallow water of the harbor, and ships and pilots prepared for the upcoming hostilities.

    By the time that was even announced, Japan had already started all the preparations to attack the US and UK. All that gave them was an excuse.

    And no, what the US did was not a "blockade". That is something completely different. A blockade means creating a naval presence to prevent anybody from sending any (or a specific) item to a country. That is actually considered most times to be an act of war. What the US did was an embargo. That is where a sovereign nation states that they will not sell (or not sell a specific item) to another country.

    Which actually blows your claim right out of the water. Because does not the US as a "sovereign nation" have a right to decide who they want to do business with?
     
  8. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Look into the "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere".

    Japan had absolutely no interest in negotiating with anybody for anything. They believed entirely in "Might makes right", and they had the right to directly control all of that area, and take what they wanted.

    Essentially everything from India north, down to Australia, and roughly half way between the Philippines and Hawaii. They believed it was all "theirs".
     
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  9. Farnsworth

    Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    This could have easily been the case; a lot of manufacturing capacity was still idle at the time due to the Depression, but recovery was quick under war time mobilization rules. Two major oil pipelines from Texas to Philadelphia, the Big Inch and Little Inch, were built from the East Texas oil field in a matter of months, for instance.

    https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/big-inch-and-little-big-inch

    Work began on the Big Inch on August 3, 1942. The WPB approved the second leg of the pipeline on October 26, 1942. A ditch four feet deep, three feet wide and 1,254 miles long was to be dug from Longview across the Mississippi River to Southern Illinois and then east to Phoenixville, Pennsylvania, with twenty-inch lines from there to New York City and Philadelphia. Crude oil was delivered to the end of the first leg, Norris City, Illinois, on February 13, 1943. By August 14, 1943, the Big Inch had been completed. In January 1943 approval was given for the first half of the Little Big Inch; approval for the entire line was given on April 2. This line, beginning in the refinery complex between Houston and Port Arthur and ending in Linden, New Jersey, was completed on March 2, 1944. Cost of the two lines was $146 million, financed entirely by the RFC. Together the pipelines carried over 350 million barrels of crude oil and refined products to the East Coast before the war in Europe ended in May 1945.
     
  10. Anonymous.Professor

    Anonymous.Professor Newly Registered

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    Considering the end of WW2 in the far east it seems also very likely that USA government was afraid of Soviet-Japan alliance if Soviets would not have free hands in eastern Europe. SU and Japan were not at war until August 1945 when Red army in agreement with USA took over large parts of China from Japan and also gave them together with many Japanese weapons to local communists. Churchill was much worried about the USA government attitude, considering Europe.

    Also USA government at that time and under Truman too wished that British empire would be dissolved and colonies would gain their independence. Which is ok, but at the same time they did not want to stop Soviet and communist colonialism specially in the far east ( China ) which was far more dangerous. Only after the communist attack on south Korea they reacted.
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2022
  11. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    That would never have happened. And it was absolutely never a consideration.

    Japan and Russia-Soviets had been at war off and on for decades prior to WWII. Most specifically, the Soviet-Japanese border conflicts from 1932-1939 and culminating in the worst battles in 1939. The Battles of Khalkhin Gol cost Japan over 18,000 dead and huge amounts of military equipment destroyed. The Soviets lost around 26,000, and even more equipment. That series of bloody battles is what brought both to the peace table with their neutrality pact.

    You talk about their not being at war until "August 1945". Forgetting that was just 6 years after both sides called quits to a war they had been in for 7 years.

    The idea of an alliance between the Soviets with Imperial Japan is even more laughable than a true alliance between the Soviets and Nazi Germany. One was an atheistic anti-Imperial nation, the other which had a state religion of worship of ancestors and the Emperor. They would never have worked together, as they were complete opposites. Heck, look no farther than the JRA to see how little support that would ever have had. The nation with the longest Imperial dynasty on the planet, becoming allied with the nation that strove to destroy all Imperialism?
     
  12. Anonymous.Professor

    Anonymous.Professor Newly Registered

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    Well they almost became allies in 1940... Soviet communists were always following the strategy that they should exploit divisions between so called imperial powers for their own advantage and spreading of ( totalitarian ) communism.

    Negotiations in Berlin how to divide new spheres of influence, November 1940.

    Molotov arrived in Berlin on 12.11. 1940. On the same and during the next day he had very important talks with both Hitler and Ribbentrop. Ribbentrop underlined how both sides benefited much after they divided spheres of influence in eastern Erurope. Nazi leaders wanted that USSR will join their pact with Italy and Japan so that this alliance would become pact of four totalitarian states. They insisted that now is the time to divide British empire. Soviet union should get land toward Persian gulf and Indian ocean as its new spheres of influence. Germany would create new lebensraum in Africa for itself. Molotov did not decline this but he was more interested in Europe. He was not glad that Germany sent some troops in Finnland claiming Finnland is in Soviet sphere according to secret protocol of Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. When he was asked what they would like to do with Finnland Molotov answered that the same as they did with Bessarabia, so annexation to USSR. Hitler was not glad about this answer. Soviet foreign minister was also interested in security alliance with Bulgaria and in Soviet influence in Turkey specially concerning sea straits Bosporus and Dardanelles.

    When Molotov went back in Moscow Soviet government agreed to consider joining the great alliance of four totalitarian states proposed by Hitler but under its own conditions. Soviets demanded that German troops should leave Finnland but Soviet union will not attack it. Germans will still receive wood and nickel from this country. However in secret protocol the question of Finnland should be again solved taking it into account that it lies in the Soviet sphere of influence. Second condition was that USSR will make a security alliance with Bulgaria and establish military base in Bosporus and Dardanelles. Soviet union was ready to take the land toward Persian gulf as its sphere of influence, but did not say nothing about India.

    Hitler was not glad with this answer. He tried to put Soviet union out of Europe so that it will concenrate on British colonies in Asia. But apparently Stalin insisted Europe is in his domain too. Because of this Hitler ordered his generals should speed up preparations for the attack on USSR.


    Hitler and Stalin Pact against Europe, written by Johann Wolfgang Brugel, published in Ljubljana, 2019, pages 210-226. .

    The rise and fall of the Third Reich, book 2, written by William Shirer, published in Ljubljana, 1969, pages 1146-1161.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2022
  13. Farnsworth

    Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    The Japanese only agreed to a cease fire with the Soviets because the Soviets guaranteed them the crude oil production from their oil field in east Asia; the Soviets agreed to a peace because the Germans were racing toward Moscow and the Baku fields, and the 'peace' freed up over a million winter equipped Soviet troops to be shipped back, arriving in Moscow that winter to help stop the Germans from taking the city.
     
  14. Anonymous.Professor

    Anonymous.Professor Newly Registered

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    Neutrality pact between Japan and USSR was signed already in April 1941. But you mentioned also Soviet supply of oil to Japan. That was going on of course even after German attack on SU and after Japanese attack on USA. Yet in small quantity since SU needed oil for itself.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2022
  15. Farnsworth

    Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    Both sides were already alerted to the German buildup going on and the attack was fully expected by the Soviets; they also knew that transporting over a million troops that distance was going to take a while, hence the agreement of April. which is still pretty late.Stalin was planning his own invasion of Germany, and needed to secure his rear against the Japanese.

    The trains barely made it to Moscow in time for the Winter Offensive as it was. Even then it was the early British armor shipment sent by Churchhill reaching Moscow in the nick of time that made the real difference. The Soviets still held the Baku oil fields, thanks to the diversion of German spearheads to Stalingrad, so they didn't need the comparatively minor production of the eastern region. As it was, England and the U.S. supplied the Soviets with refined products, including aviation fuel boosters without which the Soviet air force was a joke.

    'Neutrality Pacts' were a running joke on all sides; nobody except the U.S. ever abides by them.

    This was a case of the Japanese screwing over their German allies and the Soviets screwing over their British and American allies.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2022
  16. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Which would have been a complete fail even if true.

    Because in September 1940, Germany, Italy and Japan signed the Tripartite Pact. Which put Asia completely in the sphere of influence of Japan. That includes all of the European Colonies in the area (UK, France, Netherlands, Portugal), as well as those of the US (Philippines, Guam, Samoa, etc). The very idea that Germany would stab Japan in the back to give territory to the Soviets is laughable.

    Sorry, I largely have to dismiss any of this, being nothing more than diplomatic games at the most. Never any kind of real discussion towards an actual alliance.

    There are a few things about Nazi Germany that do stand out. One, is that it stood by it's allies. Even going so far as to declare war against the US, even when it did not have to. And they unquestionably gave more to their ally Italy than they ever got in return.

    But when negotiating with other nations, they had absolutely no problem forging an agreement, then turning right around and completely ignoring it. Considering the deep hatred between National Socialism and Communism, I doubt any kind of "alliance" was ever possible. Because I can guarantee that the Germans would never have let it stand for very long.
     
  17. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    But it was only a neutrality pact.

    The Soviets were natural enemies of Japan because it was an Imperial nation (with the longest Imperial line in the history of the planet), and a deep national religion that would inspire their members to do things almost unheard of. And they were still "butt hurt" because of the land that Japan had seized in the Russo-Japanese War. As well as the humiliating defeat they gave the Russian Navy.

    More than anything else, that is why in late 1945 they went to war with Japan. They knew that was the only chance they would have to regain a lot of that lost territory. And that invasion was a far cry from 1904. As most Japanese units were trying to withdraw as quickly as they could, already being ordered to return to Japan as quickly as transportation would allow.
     
  18. Anonymous.Professor

    Anonymous.Professor Newly Registered

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    In fact big three axis powers alliance should get the fourth member in autumn of 1940 after the fall of France, which was also supported by the Comintern. Hitler was ready to give India to SU, China and far east to Japan. Yet negotiations felt because Soviets were more interested in Europe.

    Of course maybe later after British empire would be divided Germany would attack USSR or Stalin would attack Hitler before that when he would still be bussy with the British. But this was reserved for later time.

    That was considered as an upgrading of collaboration between Hitler and Stalin which gave many benefits for both countries. More about this here:

    http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?threads/hitler-and-stalin-pact-against-europe.566628/

    Also USSR leaders were interested in prolonging the war with Japan so that they will be able to get bigger influence in China and annex more territory.

    After their defeat at Okinawa Japanese leaders were seeking to end the war with the help of USSR. Yet they tried to avoid unconditional surrender by any means possible. Japanese foreign minister Hirota Koki made a contact with Soviet ambassador Malik in this regard in early June 1945. Molotov instructed ambassador to wait with the answer ( ! ). In July 1945 Stalin got afraid that Japan will be defeated before he could enter the war and speeded up his preparations.

    In fact preparations started slowly after German defeat at Stalingrad. However Stalin sold to the western allies his intention to go to war with Japan as a favour for them and as an encouragement to open second front in Europe. But he wanted to go to war with Japan because of geopolitical reasons. He was planining to annex Sakhalin and the Kurils to make Soviet borders ''stronger'' and was skeptical that western allies would be ready to give such territory concessions. Also he wanted to have influence in China.

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/41708322?s ... b_contents
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2022
  19. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Japan did not want a surrender of any kind. They were trying to pursue an armistice, ultimately returning all territory to November 1941 borders. But with all land they lost returned to them, any the allies lost demilitarized under their conditions.

    And the Soviets were their final chance to do that, as every other nation they had approached to try and present their terms to the Allies had turned them down. Even the Swiss refused to present their "peace terms". But I am not sure of most of your claims, especially the claim of the USSR going to war with Japan if the Allies opened a second front. That was early 1943, well over 2 years prior to that.
     
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  20. Anonymous.Professor

    Anonymous.Professor Newly Registered

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    Well Soviets had kind of double policy about second front in the First phase of war. Comintern was advocating second front already in 1941. Churchill is mentioning for example that it was really an irony Just months before communists were accusing Britain of leading an imperialistic war and the only right way out was not to fight Nazi Germany but to start communist revolution inside UK and then after German attack on SU they immediately wanted second front in Europe...

    But on the other hand Soviet leaders in 1942 told USA government they prefer western help over preparations for the second front in Europe which would limit this help. We should understand that Soviet economy was near collapse at that time.

    After Stalingrad however Soviet leaders were feeling much more secure and they wanted quite logically second front in Europe. To encourage this they promised they Will go to war with Japan when Germany is defeated. Stalin knew however he Will be able to spread Soviet influence in the far east on that way too, tricking the West specially USA that he is doing some kind of favour to them.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2022
  21. Farnsworth

    Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    lol Stalin had his hands full with his recent conquests in the West, and didn't really want to fight the Japanese. Roosevelt goaded Stalin into declaring war on Japan, and he dragged his ass to boot. He was content to make a last minute grab for some islands and maybe even a slice of the northern mainland island after he was sure they were already defeated. He didn't really have the means to do much re China or Japan due to his massive losses against Germany. There are a lot of battles most people in the West aren't aware of where the Soviets took massive losses against even poorly supplied units manned by youths and old men, especially in the central and southern theaters. This was a country that couldn't even beat Finland, much less defeat the Japanese in the field.

    Gantz has an essay on those out there; I have the pdf but no link to it. I'll see if I can locate it.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2022
  22. Anonymous.Professor

    Anonymous.Professor Newly Registered

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    At the end of WW2 Red army was in fact very strong. Western allies were stronger concerning air power, but concerning tanks and artillery RA was stronger. Also as we know now and Stalin knew already then via his spies USA did not have atomic bombs after using the first two on Japan. Yet they were making new ones... It was the conclusion of both sides when they studied the situation that for at least some time the new world war does not seem possible and reasonable. That's why it was of course even greater mistake done by Roosevelt and Truman that they left the far east China, Tibet even Corea out of policy of containment. They were forced to change their policy when it was almost to late. When South Korea was invaded.

    After WW2 it was the time to draw new lines between the winners and USA had a mismanaged strategy.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2022
  23. Farnsworth

    Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    The Soviet Union suffered two years of famine right after the war, along with being tied up with occupation problems and other logistical issues, so it wasn't at all interested in Japan nor China other than an easy grab after their defeat. It wasn't 'strong' at all, which is why Stalin got cold feet and bailed on Korea later on. It's only real gain from WW II was East Germany and Poland, and it expended a lot of its wealth at the expense of the rest of the SU in propping up its two most productive states and bulwark against the West. The West propped it up yet again when it went bankrupt under Brezhnev over Viet Nam and the SU's imperialist fantasies in Africa and the ME as well. Also in 1973 the Israeli defeat of the Arab invasion led to the Arabs blaming them for their losses, as well as those in 1967, and Nixon was able to exploit all of that.

    Putin thinks he can do better; he's probably right as long as Presidents like Obama and Biden keep getting elected.
     
  24. Anonymous.Professor

    Anonymous.Professor Newly Registered

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    SU also took over Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania,... Baltic countries and Moldavia which it occupied first as a result of pact with Hitler.

    But if we focus just on your last statement with which i agree!! But Putin is able to do aggression on Ukraine because of the support from red China. And China was lost to communism because of the mistakes of Roosevelt and Truman. And here we are again at our topic...
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2022
  25. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    How is this the topic? You seem to be talking about everything but the topic.
     

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