Any updates on the Virus spread in Western Europe

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by Quasar44, Mar 17, 2020.

  1. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    There seams to be a sliver of silver at the horizon in Germany.
    The rate of new infections is slowing down, from 4000 daily to the last figure of 2000 per day. I would say to early to make any conclusions.
    Lets see what happens in the next days.
    Lets hope it continues.
     
  2. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If Germany has been doing mass testing then it will pick up more infections including ones where people keep well. In the UK at the moment if people have signs they are asked just to isolate themselves but they cannot get tested unless they are so ill they need to go to hospital. The Government is or maybe even has already increased the number of testing - can't remember the number maybe 25,000 a day. If/when they do that, the UK number would I think shoot up. I don't think we are at the moment or are intending to check contacts which is the best way of stopping the spread but the UK is wanting 'herd immunity' so the concern is not over people getting infected, just not too many at one time so the hospitals do not get too overwhelmed.

    Italian people over the last few days have been saying they are getting less people infected but it doesn't seem it for it's numbers.
     
  3. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Germany did not do mass testing, like South Korea. It went with public restrain measures and closing areas that have massive infection.
    The states follow Federal guide lines but have huge individual powers. I think this flexible system might work better, to target areas of high infection and with huge help from the Feds.
    Right now it is about slow down, so that the care facilities do not get overwhelmed, like in Italy, or Iran.
    A drop from 4000 to 2000 and if it continues might show a turning point.
    I am rather cautious, that development has to continue for several weeks.
    But what than ? the sucker is still there and without a vaccine, we might get a other wave.
     
  4. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Banned

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    US has the best specialist in the World
    US has terrible General care doctors , through.. I mean the worst
     
  5. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Banned

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    I saw a few Jewish General Doctors and they tried to sell me all kinds of crap and did zero for anything
     
  6. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Oh so the information I got that they had done mass testing, which would probably mean that most of those infected would not become serious/critical was wrong and is not the reason for their low death rate. The UK is going for Herd immunity. It needs 80% of the population to get the virus to achieve that - something which is tempered by the need to keep the curve where they want it and not have mass deaths in the working population.
     
  7. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Is the US giving care based on the ability to pay? US has risen to 3rd in the league for cases after China and Italy but then it is a big place. Would think it will be number one very soon.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
  8. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Banned

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    Most Americans have insurance !! Maybe 80 precent
     
  9. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I believe you have a strategy which allows the old to get health care whether they have the money or not so that does not allow me to suggest it will be the 20% who need help who will not get it.

    I hear there are around 49 million Americans without health insurance, 9 million children.
    https://www.healthpaconline.net/health-care-issues.htm

    My question was not on the number without health insurance but was on whether in a pandemic which the US ignored for a very long time and by this will almost certainly have a far higher death toll than needed, the US was going to give medical help irrespective of ability to pay.
     
  10. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Banned

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    Anyone can go into an emergency room , but without insurance, you will get a bill for tens of thousands
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
  11. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    China has given Italy a lot of help. Now it seems Russia is

    [/quote]The Russian military will send medical help to Italy from today, including mobile disinfection vehicles and medical specialists.[/quote]

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...taly-lockdown-spain-us-new-york-south-america

    In January WHO asked for $350,000 in order to provide assistance for Covid-19 sufferers, She received only $54. That is how much the West cared about Covid-19 when it was just a Chinese problem. With WHO operating things help of course could have been given to those in need rather than just best friends.
     
  12. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    People in the UK are told to keep well clear of emergency rooms if they think they have covid-19. I am sure it is the same in the US.

    So the US cannot understand that even with something like a Pandemic the people of the US need each other to survive. Those who are unable to get free treatment at the point of need will clearly not be going for help and will be continuing to spread it - but possibly the US thinks that will be in poor areas - so who cares.
     
  13. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    The Robert Koch institute is responsible to collect the official data in Germany.
    Apparently not every health service had reported its data, its Germany, they close early on Fridays.
    But interestingly the health service in my home state, which did not close early on Friday and worked through the week end, reported a similar drop of new cases.
    They reported 220 new cases on Friday and 101 cases on Saturday. In my former home town, the new cases have dropped to 2.
    Naturally I keep a very close eye on it because my brother and his wife live there.
    All cases and the than further new cases were related to ski vacations in Italy, Austria and France, in my home town.
    There is naturally a pattern. Singles or couples without children take their vacations before the Eastern school break, which is always the first large traveling season for families.
    Spring break in the US is 1 week, Easter break in Germany nearly 3 weeks. For quasar, those are naturally payed vacations, if taken.
    I think they got away with a real mess, because no Eastern break.
     
  14. Steady Pie

    Steady Pie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I think we need to make this abundantly clear ahead of time that these radical measures will be repealed in full once the crisis is over. The ratchet effect has a way of making rash decisions appropriate to a crisis permanent.

    Look at 9/11.
     
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  15. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Very true.

    I remember hearing Bennet tell the Israelis that they would only be monitoring their phones for the duration of the virus. People have previously been being held on lockdown due to terrorist activities and the like which sometimes looked like something of an overkill though it does illustrate that lockdown has to some extent become an accepted strategy in Western Societies.

    In this instance I believe it is necessary and think it would have been better if the West had followed China's way and done it in full and straight away rather than being coy about rights or wanting to get 'herd immunity' which looks like it may result in a lot more deaths due to health services being overwhelmed. I watched a Spanish Dr in tears talking about how things are there. Apparently they are taking everyone over 65 off ventilators and giving them sedatives to ease the pain as they die. They need the ventilators for younger people.

    I agree with you we are in a very vulnerable position at the moment re rights and most other things.
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2020
  16. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-year-old-uk-nurse-intensive-care-coronavirus

    This is the bit that we have been ignoring. I know Italy two or three weeks ago said half of their patients were under 65 and I have heard other countries say that as well. I think the current situation is that given all possible help, ventilators and everything else, the people who do not survive are the very old with underlying health problems and some younger with same underlying health problems. However the under 65's appear to be around half of the patients who find themselves in hospital - most appearing to get well given optimum care. This woman being a health worker if she was working with Coronavirus patients will have been continually exposed to the virus. I have heard the more exposure one has to the virus the harder it hits you. Remember the young Dr in China who was the first to try and get the virus acknowledged died as did several other health workers. .

    That being said at least half of people who find themselves in hospital seriously/critically ill are under 65. Italy, again a couple of weeks ago said the under 65's were I think between 48-65. The man said they did not know how they were going to deal with the young when they came in. The young apparently having a stronger immune system manage to defend themselves from the virus and its worst effects for longer. China was helping Italy's Dr's. I am assuming that is where they got the information about the young - presumably under 48 though I have heard of several instances of people in their 20's being desperately ill.

    In the UK there are apparently plans to stop all Intensive care treatment for the over 70's when hospitals get full. They will just be told to stay at home as people in Italy are already. The plans are to reduce the age to 65 if things become really congested.

    This is why there has been such a song and dance about the curve. If our hospitals become overwhelmed and unable to give everyone top level care we are going to see younger and younger people dying of this virus.

    It is time to take it seriously and not put yourself at risk.
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2020
  17. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So are you saying that rather than widescale testing, Germany has been very strong on chasing up contacts and isolating them?
     
  18. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Bad? Not quite the word.

    France has forced its residents to "stay home" rather than get sick going to work. (Now that's a new one for France!)

    If you want to leave your premises you must load a "permit" that stipulates the reasons why? You sign it, and be prepared to be stopped by the police and requested the document.

    If you live in France, I explain how this is done by a post on the Political Forum here.

    The inevitability of deaths has sunk-in (to French minds) so, for once in their lives, they are obeying the rules given. (The French love rules - they just hate obeying them ;^)

    Is France doing better (at dieing less) than other countries? Yes, it is. My heart goes out to Italians who are dieing the most for nothing ...
     
  19. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    For the European total death-rate, as of 22 March, see the infographic here. Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths in Europe since February 2020 (as of March 22, 2020), by country and date of report

    The detail rate for each European country (on a daily basis) can be found here.

    Detail as of 23/03/2020:
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2020
  20. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I am almost sure that will happen in France as well. But people MUST STAY at home, then and only then does the death-rate (from mingling) drop.

    It is the ONLY WAY stop the virus from killing people - until a virus-killer is found. And that is not on the horizon for quite some time.

    Though there seems to be a lot of buzz on the Net about alternative chemical formulae.

    This plague is not a phenomenon happening to someone else somewhere else ...
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2020
  21. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    I checked today the figures of my former home town, Kassel, 200.000 folks. No new cases, 44 total reported.
    The surrounding county had 5 more.
    Statistic scientists of a German university see a downwards trend, but caution, that they need this week data to complete the picture.
     
  22. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Yes I think that investigating, finding possible contacts and than whole sale quarantine of possible contacts has helped a lot.
    It is rather clear how the virus got to Kassel, Austrian ski vacation.
    Same thing happened in Colorado, first hot spot was Aspen, Australian group was the cause. Everybody who got in contact with that group was instantly isolated. It worked.
    Colorado instantly closed all ski resorts, it worked.
    The hot spot is now Denver.
    Colorado closed all non essential businesses, which slowed down the spread in the state.
     
  23. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  24. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Germany is Germany. France is France.

    I am surprised with the number of French who were stopped this past week (the restrictions had been announced the weekend before last). Without the government provided document (downloaded) necessary for transit-permission and a 135€ fine to pay without it! (And, even, with the document, if caught in any region publicly signed as "off limits", YOU WILL BE FINED. Stay at home means, uuuhhh, STAY AT HOME! Which means you'd better be going only to supermarket or a doctor.)

    No TV, or just plain stoopid? I'll go for the latter ...

    PS: Careful about statistics. A one day or even one week "downturn" is no guaranty whatsoever that the CV-19 has crested! Two weeks, otoh, yes!
    PPS: Let's be grateful, people. If it were the Martians that had attacked, we'd all be dead by now ... ;^)
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2020
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  25. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It must be the pasta!

    (Works wonders ... ; ^ )
     

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