I heard the other day that several economists are predicting that the economy is too strong to go into an actual recession in 2020 or perhaps even 2021 though growth might slow noticeably in that time. I'll go out on a limb and say that the next recession will begin in the third or fourth quarter of 2022. Not early enough to impact the midterm elections in 2022 but that the recession will though not all that deep will persist throughout 2023 with recovery beginning in the first quarter of 2024, probably making things rough for Donald Trumps Republican wanna be successor that year. I predict that unemployment will exceed 8, perhaps even 9% raising fears of possible double digit unemployment though it will not get that bad. Just me spitballing.
I will say within the next 3 years, just my guess just hoping not a 1929 style depression, but could be
Hard to tell when, but certainly coming sooner or later And when it does come, I predict it will be a monster. The standard tools are monetary and fiscal policy. Monetary policy is lower interest rates... but there is not much room for lower interest rates. Fiscal policy is deficit spending.... and again we have already exhausted that tool. Finally, there is economic coordination with other friendly countries... none of which are all that friendly these days. what is likely is that the dollar will collapse because no one will want to further support our trade deficit. Once the dollar starts down, there will be a panic for the exits. International investors will want to sell their treasury holdings. This will force higher interest rates to make the dollar attractive. And higher interest rates will make our government debt to be a crushing expense... so deficit spending will end just at the time we need it to stimulate the economy. Higher interest rates will also damage business investment and real estate. So tax revenues will also fall. We will be unable to afford our massive military budget. We will no longer be the same intimidating military or economic super power. We will probably face years of stagflation. It will be a vicious cycle of pain that will last for years.... just look how Japan’s boom years ended... the niki stock average has never reached the highs of 25 years ago... it can happen, we are not so exceptional as we like to think you are welcome
Harsh to says. I heard an economist says that recession always happen when they're predicted to be impossible. I suppose that the warmer summer could influence in a positive or a very negative way on harvest. There would be evolutions on the number of ressources in the next years. I suppose surely before 2025, 2021 or 2022 can seems the moment.
I was told before Trump was elected he would start WW3 with nukes and plunge us into a global recession.
Most of the recent yank-led recessions have reflected corruption. Given that, it could happen any time. The only amusement is watching the right wingers pretend that the market is working...
Within 3 years sounds about right, but it's too broad to be a legitimate prediction. Economically speaking, we're in unknown territory since we've not had such a prolonged period of low interest rates in modern times, which is why the previous "expert" opinions that we would go into a recession this year turned out be nonsense. Nobody knows nuthin'
the reality is like most prognosticators who predict a recession every year, they will eventually be correct once. Then, we're told how the person predicted it despite being wrong for 10 years. As long as a govt involves itself in fiscal and regulatory policy, then people (govt employees and elected officials) who have no experience starting and growing businesses, can kill an economy.
"Anyone Want To Try Predicting the Next Recession?" I think Bush set the course for a depression with his mega tax cuts for the rich and endless wars in the middle east, Trump did not help matter with his mega tax cuts for the mega corps I predict a depression in the next couple years, probably 3, but just a guess
that is the scary part, interest rates are low, debt is high, and not just government debt, if we have another depression, it will be much worse than 1929 Trump says the economy is doing great, just like Bush did right before the recession, but the low interest rates and the fed dumping tons of cash into the economy says otherwise trust me, I wish it was not true, I plan to retire in a couple of years, if our cash becomes worthless, gonna really suck
And I would say a year earlier 2Q-2020. It will be much sooner than we think today and it will last two quarters before recovery sets in ...
what signs do you see of a recession beginning in less than 90 days from now? And a recession has to last a minimum of two quarters before it is even called a "recession".
