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Approx. how many among the coded Covid19 deaths would have/might have died from other causes?

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by nopartisanbull, Jul 14, 2021.

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  1. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    I have a BOMBSHELL that will certainly displease most Republicans, and especially the ones who believe that the number of people who ACTUALLY died of Covid19 is significantly lower than reported.

    Several Republicans have claimed/estimated that approx. 75% of coded Covid19 deaths would have/might have died of other causes. Some have been chanting 50% lower, and a few have stated ''at least 30% lower''. THUS, rationally, a percentage of less than 15% would certainly displease said Republicans.

    According to my findings, (two weeks of research), the coded covid19 deaths who would have/might have died of other causes are MAINLY SENIORS. Therefore, prior to revealing my bombshell, let's have a discussion about our Senior's top causes of death.

    Here are the top causes of death for adults over the age of 65, starting with the number one cause: heart disease.
    • Heart Disease. ...
    • Cancer. ...
    • Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) ...
    • Cerebrovascular Disease (Stroke) ...
    • Alzheimer's Disease. ...
    • Diabetes. ...
    • Pneumonia and Influenza. ...
    • Accidents.
    https://www.verywellhealth.com/top-causes-of-death-among-adults-over-65-2967470

    Question; Among the top causes of death, which one do you believe increased, or decreased during the pandemic?

    Note: The purpose of said discussion is to have a better understanding of my forthcoming bombshell.
     
    nopartisanbull, Jul 14, 2021
    #1
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  2. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    Pneumonia?
     
    Aleksander Ulyanov, Jul 14, 2021
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  3. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Let's begin with ''Pneumonia and Influenza'' related deaths, 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 Flu Season

    2019/2020 Flu Season; According to the CDC, numbers show pneumonia deaths weren't higher than previous years.

    2020/2021 Flu Season; As of the most recent updates from the CDC, the 2020/2021 flu season impacted a much lower number of people than usual in all major regions of the United States.

    According to several State's Department of Health and Human Services, 2019/2020 Pneumonia and Influenza related deaths were lower than previous years.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html#:~:text=During the 2019-2020 influenza,405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths.
    https://hive.rochesterregional.org/2020/01/flu-season-2020
    https://local12.com/news/coronaviru...0-arent-higher-than-previous-years-cincinnati
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html
    https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/osr/Provisional/MontlyDxCounts.asp

    ----------------------------

    Summary; 2019/2020, and 2020/2021 Pneumonia and Flu related deaths were lower than previous years.
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2021
    nopartisanbull, Jul 14, 2021
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  4. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    I initially tought that 2020's number of Pneumonia/Influenza related deaths would have been higher than previous years, but according to the CDC, lower than previous years.

    Also, according to Michigan's Department of Health and Human Services, in 2019 they coded 1,806 Pneumonia/Influenza deaths, and in 2020, 1,655 deaths were coded as Pneumonia/Influenza, thus, in 2020, Michigan had reduction of 14% Pneumonia/Influenza related deaths.
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2021
    nopartisanbull, Jul 14, 2021
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  5. Chrizton

    Chrizton Well-Known Member

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    I haven't heard any republicans claim that 75% of the deaths are misreported, but regardless, it all depends on what they put on the death certificate. I know a couple old people who died during COVID hospitalizations who also had pneumonia from the ventilator and chronic health issues so who knows how the death certificates were actually done.
     
    Chrizton, Jul 14, 2021
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  6. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    As I stated in a previous post.....

    I initially tought that 2020's number of Pneumonia/Influenza related deaths would have been higher than previous years, but according to the CDC, lower than previous years.

    Also, according to Michigan's Department of Health and Human Services, in 2019 they coded 1,806 Pneumonia/Influenza deaths, and in 2020, 1,655 deaths were coded as Pneumonia/Influenza, thus, in 2020, Michigan had reduction of 14% (151 deaths) Pneumonia/Influenza related deaths.

    https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/osr/Provisional/MontlyDxCounts.asp

    Now, if we were to assume that said reduction of 151 pneumonia/Influenza deaths were also infected with Covid19, and their deaths were wrongly coded as Covid19, then rationally, the ''would have/might have died of of Pneumonia/Influenza isn't higher than 15%.

    Also, the main purpose of this thread is to prove that the ''would have/might have died of other causes'' equates to less than 20% of 2020's reported Covid19 deaths.
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2021
    nopartisanbull, Jul 14, 2021
    #6
  7. Chrizton

    Chrizton Well-Known Member

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    I don't live in Michigan. What I do know is that my state's standard for counting something as a covid death is whether Covid is listed as in the #1 or # 2 slot on the 4 slot death certificate. Whether the doctor lists it as first or third makes all the difference in the world. The same would be true for pneumonia.
     
    Chrizton, Jul 14, 2021
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  8. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Your State's Department of Health and Human Services have preliminary numbers, both Mortality and Morbidity. The reason why I quoted Michigan is because their 2019 number of deaths, and causes of death are official, and their 2020 monthly counts, both death and causes of death haven't changed since March 2021.
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2021
    nopartisanbull, Jul 14, 2021
    #8
  9. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    Regardless, what's this bombshell?
     
    Aleksander Ulyanov, Jul 14, 2021
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  10. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Next......Accidents;

    Among seniors, Falls and Car Accidents are the main accidental deaths

    1. According to Senior Health and Wellness;
    • Approximately 9,500 deaths in older Americans are associated with falls each year.
    https://www.shellpoint.org/blog/10-shocking-statistics-about-elderly-falls/

    2. According to the CDC;

    In 2018, almost 7,700 older adults (aged 65+) were killed in traffic crashes, and more than 250,000 were treated in emergency departments

    Common saying; Nobody move, Nobody get hurt

    https://www.cdc.gov/transportationsafety/older_adult_drivers/index.html

    The number of Senior accidental deaths will rationally be lower in 2020, due to the fact that Seniors generally drove/travel less, and mainly stayed home. Also, the ''would have/might have died of an accident'' is irrelevant.
     
    nopartisanbull, Jul 14, 2021
    #10
  11. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Next.......Cancer

    The Cancer death rate has been falling down since 1991

    https://www.cdc.gov/cancer/dcpc/research/update-on-cancer-deaths/index.htm
    https://consumer.healthday.com/b-1-12-u-s-cancer-death-rates-keep-falling-report-2649782966.html
    https://www.cancertherapyadvisor.co...iety-2021-statistics-show-continuous-decline/

    Michigan's number of cancer deaths show';

    2018; 21,025.............https://vitalstats.michigan.gov/osr/Cancer/cdxprev.asp
    2019; 20,865.............down approx. 1% (160 deaths)........... https://vitalstats.michigan.gov/osr/Cancer/cdxrecent.asp
    2020; 20,300.............down approx. 3% (565 deaths)..........https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/osr/Provisional/MontlyDxCounts.asp

    A larger reduction in 2020, however, the ''would have/might have died of cancer'' is certainly not higher than 3% of 2020's reported number of Covid19 deaths.
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2021
    nopartisanbull, Jul 14, 2021
    #11
  12. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Next......Alzheimer's disease

    Suprisingly, Alzheimer deaths increased significantly in 2020, and the reason given; ''Solitude/Isolation''

    IN THE UNITED STATES, ALZHEIMER’S AND DEMENTIA DEATHS HAVE INCREASED 16% DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

    https://www.alz.org/alzheimers-dementia/facts-figures

    From 2014 to 2019, Michigan recorded an average of 4,100 Alzheimer’s related deaths each year. In 2020, it recorded 4,838, an 18 percent jump over the previous years. (Similar spikes were seen in deaths from strokes, aneurysms and diabetes among older residents.)
    https://nursing.umich.edu/about/new...lation-covid-michigan-alzheimer’s-deaths-soar

    https://nursing.umich.edu/about/new...lation-covid-michigan-alzheimer’s-deaths-soar

    THUS, the ''would have/might have died of Alzeimer'' is not applicable/nonsensical.
     
    nopartisanbull, Jul 14, 2021
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  13. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    First, I have to build a case

    As I stated in my OP, the coded covid19 deaths who would have/might have died of other causes are MAINLY SENIORS

    Therefore, I have to rationally discuss their top causes of death


      • Heart Disease
      • Cancer.............................................................................Post # 11
      • Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)
      • Cerebrovascular Disease (Stroke)
      • Alzheimer's Disease.......................................................Post #12
      • Diabetes
      • Pneumonia and Influenza. ...,........................................Post # 3
      • Accidents........................................................................Post # 10
    4 more causes to discuss
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2021
    nopartisanbull, Jul 14, 2021
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  14. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    CDC guidance shows that influenza is being counted as Covid.
     
    Hoosier8, Jul 14, 2021
    #14
  15. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Next.......Stroke

    Nationally, here's the only data I found

    Cerebrovascular Diseases

    Number of deaths: 159,050

    Encompassing stroke-caused deaths, cerebrovascular diseases accounted for 4.7% of total deaths in 2020 and for 9,045 additional deaths compared with 2019

    https://www.usnews.com/news/healthi...ows/top-10-causes-of-death-in-america?slide=7


    However, Michigan's Stroke Deaths significantly increased in 2020

    2017; 5,002................https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/michigan/michigan.htm
    2018; 5,045................https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/osr/deaths/DXCause113.asp
    2019; 5,159................https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/osr/deaths/DXCause113.asp#Cerebrovascular diseases
    2020; 5,644................Up Approx. 10%......https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/osr/Provisional/MontlyDxCounts.asp

    THUS, the ''would have/might have died of a stroke'' is irrelevant
     
    nopartisanbull, Jul 14, 2021
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  16. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    It is not really the mortality but also the morbidity

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07...rd-show-no-one-is-immune-from-virus/100293174
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...spreads-in-australia/12060704#hospitalisation
    ICU is expensive and needs active months worth of rehab often
    The delta variant has seen a younger cohort hospitalised. These figures also do not include “long Covid”
     
    Bowerbird, Jul 14, 2021
    #16
  17. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    The main purpose of my thread is to prove that less than 20% of coded Covi19 deaths ''would have/might have died from other causes'', thus, definitely not the 75% or 50% a few Republican sickos have been chanting.

    Thus, show me your proof that 2020's Influenza related deaths were undercounted by at least 20%.

    By the way, I have the Jan 1st, 2020 to Dec 31st, 2020 Preliminary Influenza and Pneumonia Death counts, and for your info, the annual number is higher than the seasonal number.
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2021
    nopartisanbull, Jul 14, 2021
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  18. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    nopartisanbull, Jul 14, 2021
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  19. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    So. Your bombshell is that nobody has died??
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2021
    Aleksander Ulyanov, Jul 14, 2021
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  20. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Next.......Heart Disease and Diabettes

    CDC: Heart disease, diabetes deaths rose in 2020

    As COVID-19 spread through the U.S. in 2020, the death rates for heart disease and diabetes saw significant increases, according to data from the CDC's Mortality Dashboard.

    In 2019, the death rate for heart disease was 161.5 deaths per 100,000 population. That rose to 167 in 2020 — about a 3.4 percent rise.

    The death rate for diabetes jumped nearly 14 percent between 2019 and 2020. In 2019, the diabetes death rate was 21.6 per 100,000 population, rising to 24.6 in 2020.

    While the CDC did not provide information on the reasons behind the increases, many studies over the last year have focused on pandemic-related delays in care. A November study published in JAMA Cardiology, for example, found the survival rate for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest dropped 17 percent during the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    A separate study, published May 26 in Health Affairs, found that as emergency calls for heart issues fell by 27.2 percent in the Boston area, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests jumped nearly 36 percent, compared to historical baselines

    https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/cardiology/cdc-heart-disease-diabetes-deaths-rose-in-2020.html

    NOTE: Heart Disease and Diabetes CODED deaths have significantly increased in 2020, therefore, the ''would have/might have died of Heart disease or Diabetes'' is highly questionable.
     
    nopartisanbull, Jul 15, 2021
    #20
  21. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Once again, the main purpose of my thread is to prove that less than 20% of coded Covi19 deaths ''would have/might have died from other causes'', thus, definitely not the 75% or 50% a few Republican sickos have been chanting

    As I stated in a previous post, ANNUAL Influenza related deaths are generally higher than SEASONAL Influenza related deaths.

    This Annual Chart shows;

    2019; 49,783 Influenza and Pneumonia CODED deaths
    2020; 53,495 Influenza and Pneumonia CODED deaths
    2015 to 2020.......between 49,000 and 59,000 influenza and pneumonia CODED deaths, thus, the number of ''would have/might have died of pneumonia/Influenza is highly unlikely above 10,000.

    According to Worldometers, in 2020, there were 360,000 CODED Covid19 deaths, thus, 10,000 divided by 360,000 = 2.7%........and once again, the main purpose of my thread is to prove that less than 20% of coded Covi19 deaths ''would have/might have died from other causes'.

    In other words, next time, THINK before jumping off your rocking chair.


    [​IMG]

    https://cdn.jamanetwork.com/ama/con...IFc9hU7Upw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2021
    nopartisanbull, Jul 15, 2021
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  22. Big Richard

    Big Richard Banned

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    I’m pretty dam sure that if they didn’t die of covid then they will die of something else. Somewhere close to 100%.

    word.
     
    Big Richard, Jul 15, 2021
    #22
  23. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    nopartisanbull, Jul 16, 2021
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