Are personally owned guns a net negative for modern society?

Although firearms are often kept in homes for personal protection, this study shows that the practice is counterproductive. Our data indicate that keeping a gun in the home is independently associated with an increase in the risk of homicide in the home... . Efforts to increase home security have largely focused on preventing unwanted entry, but the greatest threat to the lives of household members appears to come from within.

 

Do you mean this study?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejm199310073291506

Edit:

Just saw the embedded link. I very much appreciate you using this study to support your claim.

1. This study includes illegal possession and use by criminals in their homes.
2. It includes guns brought in from outside the home.
3. It aggregates handguns and long guns, even though the actual data shows that long guns have a lower risk than no guns, and best of all:
4. In Table 4 the data shows that both living alone and renting have a significantly higher risk of homicide in the home than a gun in the home does.

Funny how the authors didn't mention this, eh?

They did say this:

"our limitations warrant comment. First, our study was restricted to homicides occurring in the home of the victim. The dynamics of homicides occurring in other locations (such as bars, retail establishments, or the street) may be quite different. Second, our research was conducted in three urban counties that lack a substantial percentage of Hispanic citizens. Our results may therefore not be generalizable to more rural communities or to Hispanic households. Third, it is possible that reverse causation accounted for some of the association we observed between gun ownership and homicide -- i.e., in a limited number of cases, people may have acquired a gun in response to a specific threat. If the source of that threat subsequently caused the homicide, the link between guns in the home and homicide may be due at least in part to the failure of these weapons to provide adequate protection from the assailants. Finally, we cannot exclude the possibility that the association we observed is due to a third, unidentified factor. If, for example, people who keep guns in their homes are more psychologically prone to violence than people who do not, this could explain the link between gun ownership and homicide in the home. Although we examined several behavioral markers of violence and aggression and included two in our final logistic-regression model, “psychological confounding” of this sort is difficult to control for. “Psychological autopsies” have been used to control for psychological differences between adolescent victims of suicide and inpatient controls with psychiatric disorders,23,24 but we did not believe this approach was practical for a study of homicide victims and neighborhood controls. At any rate, a link between gun ownership and any psychological tendency toward violence or victimization would have to be extremely strong to account for an adjusted odds ratio of 2.7."

 

Gun control is basically two things: Sight alignment and trigger pull.

Your contention that more guns mean more crime and gun deaths is false.

 

Guns, knives, lead pipes, and on and on are just tools. It's the person that commits the crime. We should be fixing the individual. Mental health care ought be first on the list. Next, end all federal and state laws that gives more money to women with kids if the father is not present. Families need both a father and a mother. It's a poor family that is built around a single mother, a single grandmother, and a single great grandmother.

Prove me wrong.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that more guns - more gun crime and suicide There is solid research backing this as well

 

The US increased the number of guns by 270 million from 1986 to 2019. The homicide rate fell. The unintentional firearm death rate fell. The firearm suicide rate increased at 1/6th the rate of non-firearm suicides.

 

sorry but I know you can do better than that!

 

I'm not claiming causation. I'm presenting data that refutes your claim that "more guns equals more homicides or gun deaths".

 

If correlation does not imply causation...well, there goes the entire climate change gig.

 

Except that the argument does not rely on a simple correlation/causation logic as anyone who has even skimmed the IPCC reports knows

 

No you presented an anecdote devoid of impacting variables and expected me to be impressed



https://medium.com/@joepsotka/more-guns-more-crime-we-need-more-research-6b5bb2f611e5

 

It's simple. According to ATF statistics, the number of guns increased by 270 million guns from 1986 to 2019. The homicide rate decreased, the unintentional firearm death rate declined, and the increase in the firearm death rate was 1/6 that of rhe increase in the non-firearm suicide rate.

https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/fatal.html

 

So, what are the variables that may have impacted upon this?

Let us start

1. Does the increase in guns also equal an increase in gun ownership or were there more guns in the same number of hands?
   
2. What were the economic factors affecting the USA during that time period?
   
3. Were law enforcement numbers static or did they increase of decrease?
4. Did mental health support increase or decrease?
   
5. What has been the impact of greater availability of opiates over crack cocaine?
6. Has the methodology related to reporting changed in that time?

And these are only the first few factors I came up with off the top of my head

 

No there have been other studies since then

https://injepijournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40621-021-00330-0
https://everytownresearch.org/repor...ely-lethal-intimate-partner-violence-problem/
http://jaapl.org/content/early/2020/02/05/JAAPL.003929-20
https://efsgv.org/learn/type-of-gun-violence/domestic-violence-and-firearms/
https://www.apa.org/pubs/reports/gun-violence-prevention

 

Lets talk about a recent using factual data, not a study using cherry picked numbers.



Bottom line, firearms are the least of dangers commonly found in the US and because of that, when in the hands of the law abiding they are a net positive, not a net negative.

 

And your data will be promptly ignored by the anti-gun crowd because it defied their agenda.

However what is well known is, more guns in the hands of the law abiding equals a lower crime rate everywhere it happens, whereas less guns in the hands of the law abiding equals a higher crime rate and those facts are borne out by FBI UCR reports.

U.S. Gun Owner Demographics

There are approximately 98,460,000 gun owners in the US (source)
30% of U.S. adults say they personally own a gun, while a larger percentage, 43%, report living in a gun household. (source)
Education: 27% High School, 34% Some College, 33% College Grad, 23% Advanced Degree (source)
Location: 19% live in urban areas, 28% live in suburban areas, 46% live in rural areas (source)
Race and Ethnicity: 48% of white men own a gun, 24% of white women own a gun, 24% of non white men own guns, 16% non white women own guns (source)
Politics: 41% of gun owners are Republicans, 16% of gun owners are Democrats, 36% of gun owners are independents
Women (17%), Democrats (16%) and Hispanics (15%) are the least likely to report personal gun ownership. (source)
Republicans (45%), men (43%) and self-identified conservatives (40%) are the most likely key subgroups to say they personally own a gun. (source)
Male gun owners first started shooting at age 12 on average (source)
Female gun owners first shot a gun at age 17 on average (source)
Average age of gun ownership for males is 19, females 27 (source)

Types of Gun Ownership In the US

66% of gun owners own more than one gun (source)
32% of gun owners own only one gun (source)
37% of gun owners own 2-4 firearms (source)
29% of gun owners own 5+ firearms (source)
Gun Ownership by Type: 72% of gun owners own a pistol, 62% own a rifle, 54% own a shotgun (source)
40% of gun owners say they always have a loaded gun close at hand in their house (source)

Gun Owner Attitudes and Reasons for Ownership

67% percent of gun owners cite protection as the primary reason for owning (source)
38% cite hunting as the primary reason for owning (source)
30% cite sporting as the primary reason for owning (source)
13% cite gun collecting as the primary reason for ownership (source)
8% of gun owners own a weapon for job related reasons (source)
19% of gun owners belong NRA (source)
10% of gun owners are new gun owners as of July 2018 (source)
36% of American who don’t currently own a gun have considered purchasing one (source)
33% of American say they will never own gun (source)
52% of American say there should be stricter gun laws (source)
29% of gun owners say gun laws should be more strict (source)
62% of non gun owners want stricter laws (source)

Concealed Carry, Open Carry, and Gun Use

Approximately 9 million US adult handgun owners carry loaded handguns monthly, 3 million do so every day (source)
10% of gun owners carry all the time (source)
15% of gun owners say they carry some of the time (source)
31% of gun owners carry occasionally (source)
43% of gun owners never carry (source)
The proportion of handgun owners who carried concealed loaded handguns in the past 30 days was 21% in unrestricted states, 25% in shall issue—no discretion states, 20% in shall issue—limited discretion states, 9% in may-issue states (source)
58% of men say they go to the gun range to practice (source)
43% of women say they go to the gun range (source)
28% of female gun owners hunt (source)
37% of male gun owners hunt (source)
70% of gun owners have taken gun safety course (source)

Attitudes Towards and About Gun Owners in the US

72% of Americans say they have fired a gun (source)
60% of Americans say people in their community have positive a attitude towards gun owners (source)
79% of rural gun owners report positive views (source)
44% of Americans say they know someone who has been shot on purpose or accident (source)
23% of Americans, both gun owners and not, say that someone in their family has been threatened by guns (source)
7% of American say they have used a gun (brandish or shoot) to defend selves (source)

 

However what is well known is, more guns in the hands of the law abiding equals a lower crime rate everywhere it happens, whereas less guns in the hands of the law abiding equals a higher crime rate and those facts are borne out by FBI UCR reports.

U.S. Gun Owner Demographics

There are approximately 98,460,000 gun owners in the US (source)
30% of U.S. adults say they personally own a gun, while a larger percentage, 43%, report living in a gun household. (source)
Education: 27% High School, 34% Some College, 33% College Grad, 23% Advanced Degree (source)
Location: 19% live in urban areas, 28% live in suburban areas, 46% live in rural areas (source)
Race and Ethnicity: 48% of white men own a gun, 24% of white women own a gun, 24% of non white men own guns, 16% non white women own guns (source)
Politics: 41% of gun owners are Republicans, 16% of gun owners are Democrats, 36% of gun owners are independents
Women (17%), Democrats (16%) and Hispanics (15%) are the least likely to report personal gun ownership. (source)
Republicans (45%), men (43%) and self-identified conservatives (40%) are the most likely key subgroups to say they personally own a gun. (source)
Male gun owners first started shooting at age 12 on average (source)
Female gun owners first shot a gun at age 17 on average (source)
Average age of gun ownership for males is 19, females 27 (source)

Types of Gun Ownership In the US

66% of gun owners own more than one gun (source)
32% of gun owners own only one gun (source)
37% of gun owners own 2-4 firearms (source)
29% of gun owners own 5+ firearms (source)
Gun Ownership by Type: 72% of gun owners own a pistol, 62% own a rifle, 54% own a shotgun (source)
40% of gun owners say they always have a loaded gun close at hand in their house (source)

Gun Owner Attitudes and Reasons for Ownership

67% percent of gun owners cite protection as the primary reason for owning (source)
38% cite hunting as the primary reason for owning (source)
30% cite sporting as the primary reason for owning (source)
13% cite gun collecting as the primary reason for ownership (source)
8% of gun owners own a weapon for job related reasons (source)
19% of gun owners belong NRA (source)
10% of gun owners are new gun owners as of July 2018 (source)
36% of American who don’t currently own a gun have considered purchasing one (source)
33% of American say they will never own gun (source)
52% of American say there should be stricter gun laws (source)
29% of gun owners say gun laws should be more strict (source)
62% of non gun owners want stricter laws (source)

Concealed Carry, Open Carry, and Gun Use

Approximately 9 million US adult handgun owners carry loaded handguns monthly, 3 million do so every day (source)
10% of gun owners carry all the time (source)
15% of gun owners say they carry some of the time (source)
31% of gun owners carry occasionally (source)
43% of gun owners never carry (source)
The proportion of handgun owners who carried concealed loaded handguns in the past 30 days was 21% in unrestricted states, 25% in shall issue—no discretion states, 20% in shall issue—limited discretion states, 9% in may-issue states (source)
58% of men say they go to the gun range to practice (source)
43% of women say they go to the gun range (source)
28% of female gun owners hunt (source)
37% of male gun owners hunt (source)
70% of gun owners have taken gun safety course (source)[/QUOTE]

 

How does this data support your claim about guns reducing crime?

 

Yes, decades of research have shown that homicides are more likely to occur in homes where guns are kept. If guns were preventing more deaths than they were causing then you'd expect to see the opposite pattern.

 

Strange. Your signature contains a link about how to calculate percentages but you don't follow that advice. What percent of the American population owned guns in 1986 and 2019?

 

States with higher gun ownership rates have higher homicide rates:

"In region- and state-level analyses, a robust association between rates of household firearm ownership and homicide was found. Regionally, the association exists for victims aged 5 to 14 years and those 35 years and older. At the state level, the association exists for every age group over age 5, even after controlling for poverty, urbanization, unemployment, alcohol consumption, and nonlethal violent crime."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1447364/

 

If the claim is "more guns = more gun deaths", the ownership rate isn't important.
[QUOTE

1. What were the economic factors affecting the USA during that time period?
   
2. Were law enforcement numbers static or did they increase of decrease?
3. Did mental health support increase or decrease?
   
4. What has been the impact of greater availability of opiates over crack cocaine?
5. Has the methodology related to reporting changed in that time?

And these are only the first few factors I came up with off the top of my head[/QUOTE]

You made the claim that "more guns = more gun deaths". You show how these orher factors influenced a comparison of the annual increase in the number of guns (which show a 200% increase, from 130M to 400M) from 1986 to 2019 while the homicide rate fell 40% over that same time.

The gun ownership rate us not a factor in "more guns". The number of CCW holders grew over that same time period. Deaths from mass shootings are a tiny, tiny percentage of the total number of homicides and would be considered statistical noise. Durig the ten years of the AWB all existing weapons and magazines were grandfathered, new fully functional AR-15s were available for sale, and even if "large capacity magazines" were more expensive this would have no effect on the homicide rate as a whole.

Bachground checks don't actuall prevent criminals from getting guns through the black market, straw purchases or theft.

The firearm suicide rate fell 10% from 1986 to 2019 while the non-firearm suicide rate increased by 32%.

 

Why are you conflating "more guns" with a gun ownership rate?

 

Why are you conflating "gun ownersip rate" with "more guns"?

Why does your study use a proxy for gun ienersip that includes illegal possession of firearms?

Why are you discussing this in a gun control forum when there is no Constitutional way to redice the legal gun ownership rate of the number of guns?

 

I'm not conflating anything. I'm pointing out a very relevant factor which you're ignoring.

Trillions of cigarettes were sold between 1986 and 2019 and lung cancer rates have fallen. But that doesn't mean we should conclude that there is no causal connection between smoking and lung cancer. The smoking rate has decreased just as the gun ownership rate has. That is very relevant information.