Are personally owned guns a net negative for modern society?

Discussion in 'Gun Control' started by Galileo, Dec 4, 2021.

  1. Rucker61

    Rucker61 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, you are. @Bowerbird's claim was "more guns", a figure that has increased every year since 1986. The gun ownership rate has gone up and down during that time.

    In regards to whether "more guns = more gun deaths", the ownership rate isn't a factor.
     
  2. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    The proxy for the gun ownership rate was the gun suicide rate. They found that there was a "close correspondence" between that and the University of Chicago's General Social Survey which is "the gold standard for national surveys of gun ownership".

    "An example is the category of homicide victims aged 35 to 44 years. Table 2 indicates that in a comparison of states that differed by 1 standard deviation in our firearm proxy (FS/S), the homicide rate was on average 35% higher in the states with the higher FS/S (i.e., multivariate IRR = 1.35)."
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1447364/
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2022
  3. Rucker61

    Rucker61 Well-Known Member

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    EDIT: "Conclusions. Although our study cannot determine causation, we found that in areas where household firearm ownership rates were higher, a disproportionately large number of people died from homicide."

    If you wish to make an argument that there is a causal effect between the gun ownership rate and the homicide rate, feel free to do so. The gun ownership rate and the number of guns is not the same factor.

    Here's the problem with the FS/S as a proxy for gun ownership:

    Counter to Cook's FS/S proxy
    https://academicworks.cuny.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4076&context=gc_etds

    Here's the biggest problem with either comparing the number of guns to the homicide rate or the gun ownership rate to the homicide rate. Regardless of findings, neither type of study mean ****-all to new control. The government doesn't have the authority to pass laws to address either the number of guns or the gun ownership rate.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2022
  4. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    Numerous studies have linked gun ownership to a greater risk of homicide. How could the link exist but not be causal? That's the only explanation that makes sense. So I'll say it's causal.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2022
  5. Rucker61

    Rucker61 Well-Known Member

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    The very study you linked noted that no causation could be determined. I've not seen a single study that claimed causation. Perhaps you should read the studies you reference prior to posting.

    That particular study noted a correlation between the proxy for gun ownership, which includes both lawful gun ownership and unlawful gun possession, to homicide rates. We know that the vast majority of homicides are committed by people that aren't allowed to legally possess a firearm.

    In any case, none of these studies compare the actual number of guns, ie, "more guns", to any gun related deaths.

    And to reiterate, nothing those studies would find would give the government any authority to pass new gun control.
     
  6. Bullseye

    Bullseye Well-Known Member

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    And when the gun is used to defend oneself? Understand that in many situation a gun doesn't have to be fired to prevent a crime. Many stats say defense gun uses far out number the criminal cases.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2022
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  7. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    You made the claim that "more guns = more gun deaths". You show how these orher factors influenced a comparison of the annual increase in the number of guns (which show a 200% increase, from 130M to 400M) from 1986 to 2019 while the homicide rate fell 40% over that same time.

    The gun ownership rate us not a factor in "more guns". The number of CCW holders grew over that same time period. Deaths from mass shootings are a tiny, tiny percentage of the total number of homicides and would be considered statistical noise. Durig the ten years of the AWB all existing weapons and magazines were grandfathered, new fully functional AR-15s were available for sale, and even if "large capacity magazines" were more expensive this would have no effect on the homicide rate as a whole.

    Bachground checks don't actuall prevent criminals from getting guns through the black market, straw purchases or theft.

    The firearm suicide rate fell 10% from 1986 to 2019 while the non-firearm suicide rate increased by 32%.[/QUOTE]

    I love the cherry picking. I state more guns = more gun deaths and you come back with a discussion focussed on homicides only and where you do talk of suicide it is not backed by evidence
     
  8. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Are they? Where is your validation for this claim?
     
  9. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Sorry but you are the one doing that.
     
  10. Rucker61

    Rucker61 Well-Known Member

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    Nope. I've been very careful and repetitive to say that the increase in the number of guns, ie, "more guns", is not.

    You wrote: "There is no doubt in my mind that more guns - more gun crime and suicide". The data shows the opposite.
     
  11. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    That's only if you use a different standard for calculating the number of defensive gun uses than gun crimes:
    1) A gun crime only counts if there was a police investigation and conviction in court
    2) On the other, anybody can claim in a survey that they've used a gun in self defense and it gets counted by gun apologists as a defensive gun use.

    But what if you use surveys to calculate the number of gun crimes?
    "Using data from a national random-digit-dial telephone survey conducted under the direction of the Harvard Injury Control Center, we examined the extent and nature of offensive gun use. We found that firearms are used far more often to frighten and intimidate than they are used in self-defense. All reported cases of criminal gun use, as well as many of the so-called self-defense gun uses, appear to be socially undesirable."
    https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/gun-threats-and-self-defense-gun-use-2/
     
  12. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    But how could the link exist and not be causal?

    You could claim that people choose to keep guns in their homes because they are already at a greater risk of being murdered. But:
    "This alternative is less plausible when you look at the stratified
    analysis in Kellermann's study. Gun owners were not at any greater
    risk of non-gun homicide, only of with-gun homicide. It does not seem
    plausible that people would only obtain guns to defend against threats
    from gun-armed enemies and not also arm themselves against an enemy
    that carries a knife.

    "Similarly, gun owning households were only at greater risk of homicide
    from intimates (spouse, lover, family) i.e. those people likely to
    have access to the household's gun, and not at greater risk of
    homicide from outsiders. It does not seem plausible that people would
    only arm themselves against threats from inside the household and not
    from outside."
    https://www.scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2001/05/25/kellermann-00017

    According to the principle of Occam's razor it seems the best explanation is that there is a causal link.

    "We consider it a good principle to explain the phenomena by the simplest hypothesis possible."
    -Ptolemy
     
  13. edna kawabata

    edna kawabata Well-Known Member

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    The tropes and factoids on here are typical of other right-wing echo chambers where they seem to have narrowed insight and ignorance of the rest of the world.

    Tropes like people kill people. Yeah, but if a tool specifically designed to efficiently kill humans (a handgun) was easily available and at hand, don't you think that would up the ante? Just look at the homicide rate where they are restricted. It is a stark contrast to our rate.

    Fix the mentally ill. That would be good, but countries that don't do any better or worse with the mentally ill have lower homicide rates. Russia has double our suicide rate and almost half the homicide rate. Go figure, could it be gun control?

    We could withdraw the social safety net? And increase the homeless population and starve kids. That is a great way to lower the crime rate. I thought eugenics was dead.

    We do have a high percentage of single parent families 23%. Do you know who has a low percentage of single parent families? Nigeria with 4%. They also have a 34/100K homicide rate. Ours is 7.8/100k. Chicago's is 18/100k almost half Nigeria. Hmm, there must be other reasons besides single parent families driving homicides that the right is ignoring.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2022
  14. Rucker61

    Rucker61 Well-Known Member

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    You should ask the authors of yout studies. I'd wager none of them said that there is a causal link.

    If you don't understand that even with significant correlation a causal link isn't assured, then you may have missed some important points in your statistics studies.

    I've already posted a link that explains the flaw in Cook's FF/S proxy, so any study that uses it to estimate gun ownership with it is going to be suspect.

    White males have the highest rate of firearm suicide, most likely with legally owned firearms. Black males have the highest rate of firearm homicides, likely with illegally possessed firearms. You're expevting to show that the more often white males commit suicide with a firearm that Black males are somehow caused to commit more homicides against their fellows.

    You do remember that Kellermann didn't differentiate between legally owned guns and guns illegally possessed by criminals, right?

    You do remember that Kellermann found the both living alone or renting had a significantly higher risk of homicide in the home, right?
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2022
  15. Bullseye

    Bullseye Well-Known Member

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    LOL, nice try.
    And . . .?
     
  16. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    As far as casuality goes, there are three possibilities:
    1) Guns kept in the home cause an increased risk of homicide.
    2) It's a case of reverse causation: An increased risk of homicide causes people to decide to keep guns in their home. This doesn't seem very likely as explained previously.
    3) There are one or more relevant factors which Kellermann did take into consideration. Perhaps it's a case of alien mind control: aliens are using their powers to cause people who already have guns to shoot each other.
    "This book is about my discovery of the invisible mind control UFOs used by aliens. Their neural network made of dark matter drones monitors us and can read all our thoughts, control us and give us dreams and hallucinations. They also spy us and evolve species on earth as some kind of scientific experiment."
    https://www.roomofonesown.com/book/9781079152241

    But #1 is definitely the most likely explanation.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2022
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  17. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    The claim that defensive gun uses outnumber criminal gun uses is clearly false.
     
  18. Rucker61

    Rucker61 Well-Known Member

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    Which still means nothing, even if anyone established causality. I'd really like to see the studies split between lawful ownership and unlawful possession. I'd like to see you suggest some solutions to reduce the much higher risk of homicide in the home due to living alone or renting.

    I'd really like to see why you think that an increase in white males committing suicide with guns causes an increase in Black males killing other Black males with guns.
     
  19. Bullseye

    Bullseye Well-Known Member

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    Nope. It's not. Read the Wikipedia article I linked.
     
  20. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    LOL, your own source contains stats which clearly undermine your claims.
     
  21. Bastiats libertarians

    Bastiats libertarians Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
    Notice the countries with Low or No gun ownership rate have much higher Homicide rates. You can argue Developed vs 2nd/3rd world all you want but human nature is human nature. The only people who are against gun ownership are the extremely evil.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2022
  22. Bastiats libertarians

    Bastiats libertarians Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
    Even more telling. I think Ill hold on to my firearms. thanks
     
  23. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    But it doesn't tell how evenly the guns are distributed. 100 people which 1 gun each can easily murder many more people than 1 person with 100 guns.

    According to the University of Chicago's General Social Survey, the gun ownership rate in the US has declined.



    https://alexandreafonso.me/2016/01/...with-firearms-in-the-united-states-1991-2014/[​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2022
  24. Bullseye

    Bullseye Well-Known Member

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    Huh? Where do you get that?
     
  25. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    If you live alone then it less likely that someone will be around to intervene when someone is trying to kill you. But that is off-topic.

    Kellermann found that the relationship between keeping a gun in the home and a higher risk of homicide existed independently of the arrest records of the residents. So the possibility that the higher risk only exisited in homes where guns were illegally owned was ruled out.
     

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