Be wise, thus, don't jump to conclusions

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by nopartisanbull, Jul 31, 2021.

  1. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    More than often, the UNWISE were proven wrong.

    Tons of examples/tons of subjects, such as;

    a. UNWISE; ''15 Cases will go down to ZERO''

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/trump-coronavirus-cases-will-go-down-to-zero-ultimately.html

    b. WISE; ''At this stage, the risk of a pandemic remains low''........Bingo!

    Note; Even Fauci and the CDC have been UNWISE, thus, no just Trump

    Define ''Don't jump to conclusions''.............make a hasty judgment before learning or considering all the facts.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=don't+jump+to+conclusions+meaning&oq=don&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i57j46i131i433i512j69i60l2j69i65l2j69i60.2165j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    ------------------------------------

    Let's elaborate;

    Lately, and based on UK's covid statistics, many posters have CONCLUDED that Delta's Case Fatality Rates/all age groups, are much lower than Alpha's CFR's.

    Well, according to numerous facts and rationales, said posters have undoubtedly jumped to conclusions.

    FIRST........this article dated 20th JULY, 2021;

    JULY 20............Delta variant now accounts for 83% of U.S. Cases
    https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210720/delta-variant-now-accounts-for-83-of-us-covid-cases

    Thus, for a more accurate rate, we should wait until over 90%, or near 100% of new covid cases have been diagnosed as Delta, thus, let's assume August 1st.

    Next, law of averages;

    a. Pandemic average days from INFECTION to HOSPITALIZATION; 14 days.....covid symptoms starts to show 4/5/6 days after infection, and subsequently, severity of covid illness increases to a point of requiring hospitalization.

    b. Pandemic average days from Hospital Admission Date to Dying of Covid; 14 days

    THUS, our first most accurate, and preliminary Delta CFR, all age groups, could be calculated on August 28.

    SECOND.......Due to numerous factors, UK and USA's Case Fatality Rates, Case Hospitalization Rates, Percent of patients ''On a ventilator'' and in ''ICU's'' are INCOMPARABLE, for example;

    a. Vaccination Rates, and types of Covid vaccines........Note: Over 50% of UK's populations were vaccinated with AstraZeneca, thus, compared to Pfizer/Moderna, a less effective vaccine, and several hurdles.

    b. Most vulnerable ethnic groups, American Indians, Black Americans

    c. Covid19 underlying conditions, and other comorbidities, for example;

    Rate per 100,000

    Coronary Heart Disease......

    U.S. 79.21
    UK 47.64

    Kidney Disease

    U.S. 10.83
    U.K 2.63

    Hypertension

    U.S. 7.62
    UK 2.13

    Diabetes

    U.S. 15.27
    UK 4.17

    Obesity

    U.S. 36.2%
    UK 27.80

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_obesity_rate
    https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/inflammatory-heart/by-country/

    d. Several other factors, i.e. reduction of covid vaccine effectiveness, etc.

    --------------------------------

    THUS, be wise, and don't jump to conclusions
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2021
  2. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    And FOLKS, Let's keep this thread NON-PARTISAN, well, let's try.
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2021
  3. Chrizton

    Chrizton Well-Known Member

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    So you start off attacking Trump and then proclaim it to be a non-partisan thread huh?

    The law of averages probably is of no relevance here. All we know for certain at this point is the Delta is tilling under the overly optimistic data regarding vaccinations.

    Anyway, we cancelled our planned overseas trip for October already. This isn't going away anytime soon.
     
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  4. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Quote: So you start off attacking Trump and then proclaim it to be a non-partisan thread huh?

    Partisan people are cherry pickers, and they often don't see beyond their noses.

    NOTE:

    I also stated; Even Fauci and the CDC have been UNWISE, thus, no just Trump
    I also stated; Even Fauci and the CDC have been UNWISE, thus, no just Trump
    I also stated; Even Fauci and the CDC have been UNWISE, thus, no just Trump
    I also stated; Even Fauci and the CDC have been UNWISE, thus, no just Trump

    IN ADDITION, at one time, or another, WE'VE ALL BEEN UNWISE, and have jumped to conclusions.

    Thus, what's your phoooken problem?
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2021
  5. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Quote: The law of averages probably is of no relevance here

    Glad you stated ''probably'', and you are correct.

    Pandemic averages, mainly ''Standard Covid'', and ''Alpha variant''

    a. Average Days from INFECTION to HOSPITALIZATION; 14 days.....covid symptoms starts to show 4/5/6 days after infection, and subsequently, severity of covid illness increases to a point of requiring hospitalization.

    b. Average Days from Hospital Admission Date to Dying of Covid; 14 days

    ......will most likely change due to the fact that statistically, the Delta variant is known to make people sicker and faster, thus, rationally, Delta's average days from Infection to hospitalization will most likely equate to less than 14 days.

    Good point!
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2021

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