Biden ahead in battle ground states, RCP averages

Gotta love those battling polls. I wonder how the pollsters are still in business. It amazes me that people pay for their work.

 

Regurgitating Trump implanted thought-terminating clichés reveal weak debate skills, and, as such, yours is an incompetent argument.

 

You have to remember, the only POLLS that count are the ones TRUMP say are real, from Briebart, FOX FAUX NEWS, or the Washington Examiner. Everything else is a bald face lie, people trying to destroy Trump or start 100% socialism.

 

This comment, for all its TRUTH, is the type the cry baby republicans call NAME CALLING, even when it isnt... The Mods or some of them must be part of the circus RW think tanks. Otherwise in a statement such as yours, the comment "incompetent argument" will be turned into you name calling. Usually a day or 2 later when no one cares.

There are just way way too many paid RW posters online posing as a human.

 

Sounds Like Hillary v Trump 2016 all over again

like deja vu repeating itself over and over . . . ​

​

 

Given how polling is such a competitive business, if that were true, they would be out of business in no time. One blogger put up a post in HuffPo saying the opposite was true.

Debunking both points thoroughly is the fact that pollsters do not sample via party affiliation, they just poll and let the chips fall where they may. Choosing by party affiliation is a hot potato which would put them out of business if they did that. 538 explains this in great detail, (though Rassmussen does, and tend to favor repubs).

"Let's Get A Few Things Straight". .

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lets-get-few-things-straight-party-id/

 

I couldnt care less what some blogger posted. I only care what their methodology is.

And it’s fine to pick a “random” sample but if your random sample consistently over or undersamples the populace then you’re going to be wrong.

If you oversampled Democrat’s by 10% and undersample Republicans by 5%, what do you think your poll is going to say? It’s going to lean towards the democrat position.

 

Might sound like it, but it's not.

 

Nooooo, If that is happening, especially across many polls, then it can only mean one thing, there are more people voting for dems than repubs. In fact, that is precisely a fact for the presidential election of 2016 and the house and senate elections of 2018, which PROVES INCONTROVERTIBLY this fact.

You're trying to frame the argument as that the pollsters are intentionally over and undersampling, and is where you are wrong.

From a business point of view, as a pro pollster, intentionally over and under sampling, or doing anything OTHER than random sampling, will put you out of business.

Care about facts, but, apparently, you prefer to make **** up.

 

I hate to pop your bubble here, but you do not know what you are talking about.

I don't know how simple I can make this, but evidence of results siding with a particular side, DOES NOT prove the pollster was over or under sampling..

Random polls can ABSOLUTELY and consistently side with one side over another, for the simple mathematical fact that there are more people on one side over the other.

If you are going to argue other factors that may affect the poll, it doesn't change the above truth. We are assuming the other aspects of a poll are done with accepted standard.

We start with simple mathematical probability, if there are more people identifying with democrats, then the results will USUALLY favor democrats. It might favor republicans on certain issues, but on the whole, the polls will favor democrats. In 2016, more people voted for a democrat for president. More people sided with a democrat in 2016. Another fact that in 2018 more people voted for democrats than republicans in both the house AND THE SENATE. That Repubs gained a seat is due to rural areas have the advantage whereupon dems have fewer senators for the same number of people, a lot fewer and this is why we can have more votes for democrats yet the repubs hold the senate by one or two senators.

This means that if democrats want to take the Senate, they have to win by a greater factor than repubs have to win, sufficient to overcome the statistical advantage. Note that the statistical advantage in the senate for repubs is not because there more repubs in the electorate than dems, it's that dems have fewer senators for the same size of population. If you add up all the rural states in order to achieve a total of 40,000,000, you'll have a dozen senators or more across all those states, ( not using texas in the factoring ) compare that to California's 2 senators for 40,000,000. Repubs have the advantage because rural area tend to vote republican ( not all rural areas, but many of them do ).


So, the question is this: IS it true that are more people favoring democrats?

The answer is yes:



It's not that a pollster is under or over sampling, is that given the greater number of people who identify with democrats, the polls will merely reflect what exists in the universe.

IF you intentionally selected the same number of democrats and the same number of republicans, then your results would NOT be true.

It's not that polls are always right or wrong, there is a science that helps you get to right more often, and that's the goal.

 

Beijing Biden will be lucky to win 10 states in November.

The way that the situation in New York is shaping up with Fredo and his, "take no responsibility," brother, Trump may even win New York.

 

This coming from someone whose sig quotes the biggest sycophant in political history, that's rich.

 

No kidding.

Trump will be lucky to hold Biden under 300 EV.

 

Does Anyone Really Believe the Polls Showing Biden Cruising to Victory?

“It has become more than obvious that the Democrats are willing to keep Americans financially destitute in order to throw the election to Biden, and that may be what is reflected in the current polling. However, as we have noted a couple of times this week, the states that are opening up are looking better than the states that are remaining on arbitrary lockdown. If that keeps playing out like that, it will reflect better on Trump and the Republicans.”​

Polls this early ALWAYS generally show the Democrat beating the Republican, then by labor day they tighten to within 5 points, and by the election, by 2 points, and always in favor of the Democrat.

Democrats win a lot more polls than they do elections.

 

The Brit was really good.

 

He has turned on FOX. It's only Brightbarf and the Washington Exterminator now.

 

I read your signature link. Had a good laugh. As Homer Simpson says, "It is only funny because it is true".

 

Because of gerrymandering, and because the senate votes are rigged for repubs, they have to win by a larger margin just to win, than republicans do, so it makes sense.