California Gubernatorial recall election - results thread

This thread is dedicated to simply getting the vote count out there.

Major outlets like AP, Politico and the like will be offering links to the election results, but the link that will count the most is the link directly from the CA SOS:

Election Night Results | 2021 Gubernatorial Recall Election | California Secretary of State

In specific, this link to the YES/NO question:

State Recall | 2021 Gubernatorial Recall Election | California Secretary of State

If you prefer to see the YES/NO question as an electoral map, then this link is for you:

Recall Question | 2021 Gubernatorial Recall Election | California Secretary of State

California does an excellent job of tabulating how many votes have been counted, by county:

County Reporting Status | 2021 Gubernatorial Recall Election | California Secretary of State

And of how many ballots are as of yet unprocessed:

Unprocessed Ballots Status | 2021 Gubernatorial Recall Election | California Secretary of State

Now, to some nitty-gritty: according to electoral-vote.com:

That's a tough hill for leading Republican candidate Larry Elder to climb. This is a heavily Democratic state with a massive VR margin, so for any Republican, this would be an uphill climb.

How much of a climb, you ask? Well, 538's polling aggregate is showing the following going into today's election:



On the aggregate, that's a landslide +15.8% margin for keeping Gavin Newsom Governor, with the topline % well over 50%.

I am pretty sure that this recall will be called relatively quickly.

Per California State law, the counties have until October 15th to publish their final results to the SOS, who will then certify the results on October 21st.

As the night unfolds, I will be publishing results.

This thread is not for useless propaganda. Please keep it clean and respectful here.

 

I voted three times for the recall..Albeit it was in my house in Mizzouri.

 

Don't make me spank you.

 

I saw over 30% of people (most likely Democrats) are leaving the second question blank and Elder is averaging over 30% so if it goes to question #2 Larry should win.

Having that said I doubt it will get there as polls show 55-65% of people plan to vote no on if Newsom should be recalled.

As Stat said some polls have Gavin winning by almost 20 points. A big change from last month when polls showed people split 50/50.

Hard to say which way most of the independents will swing but even without them the Democrats still have the advantage if they mostly all vote for Newsom.

 

can you give the link to where you saw this?

 

I read it yesterday but can't seem to find it today. I thought it was 270 to win or 538 that had that information.

538 is saying in a poll last week 44% of voters said they would leave the second question blank.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...to-know-about-the-california-recall-election/

538 points out the last election in California the polls were off by 9 points and 13 points for some house elections but they also point out only twice has a person lost when the polls had that person as high as 15 points which is what 538 has for Gavins polling lead.

Some polls have Gavin as high as 19 points.

Here is my main website I use for election information:

www.racetothewh.com

 

We may start seeing results soon but polls won't close until 11 PM eastern time I believe.

 

So the polls will close 8 PM in California and reporting may not start until 11 PM.

Exit polls show covid 19 being a big issue for voters.

 

which does not bode well for Elder

 

Expect the first results to be most of the early voting. Gavin should start out with a nice lead if the Democrats still mostly support him.

 

As the early vote is coming in, it is an absolute blowout to keep Gavin Newsom as Governor:



However, this is only the early vote, there are still millions of votes to count.

That being said, where Newsom would need to go badly in order to lose this recall election, he is actually exceeding expectations, for instance in San Diego and Orange Counties.

 

Results are coming in. Gavin has a massive lead.

 

I honestly can't see the Republicans overcoming that massive blue wave.

 

According to Fox News over 70% of the votes so far for question #1 are "No" in support of keeping Gavin Newsom.

 

CNN projected at 23:39 ET that the recall vote against Gavin Newsom has failed.

 

With 58% of the vote in, Newsom is beating the recall by more than 2 to 1:

 

CBS and NBC have also called the "race" for Newsom as having beaten the recall, and by a huge margin.

 

The polling aggregate had shown a +15.8% spread for Gavin Newsom against the recall, right now that margin is +34.6%, and that is with almost 60% of all votes having been counted.

It is looking very much as if Gavin Newsom is going to exceed the polling aggregate expectations going into election day. Already, in this very moment, REPUBLICAN talking heads are blaming this on Larry Elder's extremism.

 

It's California.

Newsom said they called almost 2 million people and knocked on almost a million more doors days before to get turnout support for him. That's a pretty good strategy.

Larry Elder was #1 for the replacement option with Kevin Paffrath #2.

Well Gavin keeps his seat. Democrats should be celebrating.

 

At 23:51 ET, FOX NEWS was the last major news outlet to call the recall election in favor of Newsom, but look at the propaganda in their headline:



Apparently managing to "fend off" a recall election must mean a +30 margin. What rot.

When you fend off someone in a race, it means the race was close.

This election was not anywhere near close, not by a longshot.

This FOX NEWS headline is truly terrible journalism.

 

I will remind, the polling aggregate was showing NO 57 / YES 41, a roughly +16 margin.

And I will bet that when all the votes are in and the results are certified, Newsom's win over the recall challenge will be considerably larger than this.

 

In his victory speech, Gov. Gavin Newsom is tearing into Donald Trump.

At the end of his speech, he evoked the memory of his hero, Bobby Kennedy.

 

That +30 points may shrink as 40% of the vote is still out there but it's still a landslide win for Gavin.

 

I fully expect that it will shrink, that is a pretty normal development, but it won't shrink to half of what it is right now.

Counties that Newsom lost in the 2018 Gubernatorial voted to keep him in office tonight, for instance, Riverside County and Orange County.

 

Why am I not surprised.