Changing voting blocs - what happened?

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Troianii, Sep 10, 2017.

  1. GoogleMurrayBookchin

    GoogleMurrayBookchin Banned

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    That's cool. I'm replying to you while sitting in a computer science lecture. Gonna go ahead and guess your grasp of functional programming would make this a breeze for yourself.
     
  2. pol meister

    pol meister Well-Known Member

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    That's cool. Lectures for me were always a good time to get in a nap. After the nap, I would create 3D images of a mountain by keying in a box full of computer punch cards, using x,y,z data points, taking them to the campus computer science lab, and running them through a computer programmed to process them and print them; some 40 years ago. Very primitive process, by today's standards, but at least it yielded some usable output.

    So what is "functional programming" yielding today? Is it yielding any "political wisdom" in today's youth (the topic of my post), or just a lot of fancy words and lingo? Will it get this piece of junk Window 10 system of mine working any better?
     
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  3. Oh Yeah

    Oh Yeah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Bill Clinton was for border security and the deportation of illegals so he said. So was America. Trump was for border security and building a wall and the deporting illegals, so he said. So was America. If no wall gets built and illegals deported then there will be another change in Congress first and a new President in 2020.
     
  4. Jimmy79

    Jimmy79 Banned

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    You have to correctly identify the immigrants people don't like. The legal ones I've seen no push back against. It's the illegal ones that most people don't like.
     
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  5. T_K_Richards

    T_K_Richards Well-Known Member

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    My opinion is that non-college educated white-men are increasingly feeling left behind in the economy. Middle to lower-middle class wages are basically stagnant and have been for decades.

    Making it in this country is increasingly about your willingness to move, get an education, pick up a trade, or start a business. These are not ventures that have always been necessary in the past, particularly for white men who often had the option of high paying blue collar work that are now disappearing, manufacturing and mining, or are inconsistent, construction.

    This combined with an increase in opioid addiction, health problems, and general anomie, have created an environment in which non-college educated white-men are feeling as though the opportunities and life that their parents, grandparents, etc. had is no longer available to them.

    Trump did a good job of speaking to their concerns and offering a solution, feasible or not, and in some cases gave them a scape-goat in immigrants, China, politicians, media, etc. Hillary underestimated their desire for change and/or a politician whose message spoke to their concerns. She also did not successful frame Trump as someone whose economic message does not line up with theirs. This is something Obama did well against Romney, painted him as someone who did not have their economic interests at heart.

    I don't know if it will continue this direction in the long-term, but I think Trump has continued to hold their approval. If you look at the midwest states that swung for Trump in the election they tend to have higher approval for him than the national average, which seems to suggest that those same voters are still in his camp.
     
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  6. Merwen

    Merwen Well-Known Member

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    This is so obvious to anyone in the middle class that it is almost unbelievable to me that anyone could miss it, let along our leadership. Apparently they felt propaganda would win the day.
     
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  7. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Indeed, voting blocks can change from election to election. Romney won college grads 51-47 over Obama, Clinton won them 49-44 last year. High School or less went to Obama 53-46, last year to Trump 51-46. Education wise, a complete reversal in four years. Candidates matter.

    Blacks have been going Democratic since the great depression. FDR offered hop and they remained loyal to the Democrats. Eisenhower received 39% of the black vote in 1956 and Nixon got 32% in 1960. But since then, no Republican presidential candidate received more than 15% of the black vote. Nixon in 1968 and Ford in 1976. With Blacks it seems candidates doesn't matter, but party does.

    I suspect you may see more voting blocks change as time goes by. Perhaps flip from one candidate or party to the other among certain segments or voting blocks. I think as one party has drifted farther and farther to the right, the other to the left that it has left a good chunk of Americans without a political home or party to call their own. Independents, the non-affiliated has climbed from 32% in 2008 to 44% today. I think it is the growing dissatisfaction with both parties that is causing voting blocks to switch. Let's try Republicans this election cycle since the Democrats sucked last cycle. Then they realize the Republicans also suck, so its back to the Democrats. Not all voting blocks, some remain very loyal like blacks. Others go back and forth.
     
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  8. Strasser

    Strasser Banned

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    They're 25%-30% of the prison population, and of course the gang problems also loom large, along with bankrupt social services in many communities, and the lower wages for American latinos and blacks, if they can get hired at all.
     
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  9. Jimmy79

    Jimmy79 Banned

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    What does this have to do with my comments?
     
  10. Merwen

    Merwen Well-Known Member

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    IMO Trump is actually aiming at that middle.
     
  11. Strasser

    Strasser Banned

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    What doesn't it have to do with them?
     
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  12. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That may be possible. But the problem with Trump reaching out to them, the non-affiliated middle is most of them have been turned off by his persona. Not necessarily with his policies. He has dropped from 48% approval/24% disapproval of independents/non-affiliated down to 35% approval/50% disapproval. The drop isn't so much on his policies or what he has tried to do, but as I stated in the beginning, his character or his unpresidential persona. Indies approve of some of the things he has done, disapprove of others and are split on the rest.

    Perhaps Trump can win some of them back, then again who knows? Time will tell. I think if Trump stayed off twitter, he stands a chance.
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2017
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  13. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Love that response. Didn't detect even a hint of partisan messaging - seriously.
     
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  14. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yeah, I suspect we will see more of them changing in time. What strikes me the most is with gender. Among blacks, men were more than 3x as likely to vote for Trump as black women were. That's stark, but generally you see the same across racial categories - women being more likely to vote Democratic than men. I just kind of wonder what would happen if that continues. I know too many people who will only date people with similar political beliefs - if the gender voting patterns continue the trend, that'll make dating interesting.

    The other thing I expect is that we will see changes in the Hispanic vote. I think that for many young Hispanics immigration is a central issue, but if you remove that issue, Hispanics are socially more conservative than whites, but much more accepting of big government. Sort of like neocons - which is odd to think of.

    Btw for clarity - I don't disagree with anything you said - great post.
     
  15. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's the weird thing - it's very unlikely trump will be in this position electorally in 2020. He's in about the shape Obama was for 2010, which had the tea party rise. But then Obama pulled it back and won in 2012.
     
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  16. Strasser

    Strasser Banned

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    Trump's alleged 'unpopularity' doesn't mean those voters will go back to voting for Democrats or establishment Republicans, so the 'joy' over that is probably unwarranted.
     
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  17. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I don't care how political incorrect it is, but women for the most part think differently than men on quite a lot of things. I think one just has to accept that. Issues important to women aren't the same ones important to men and vice versa generally speaking. Hispanics are interesting. Supposedly the Republicans were making a great pitch for the Hispanic vote since Obama defeated Romney 71-27 in 2012 among Hispanic. Trump's nomination was in theory derailing that approach. But Trump lost the Hispanic 66-28 to Clinton. He did better among Hispanics than Romney even with the wall and the immigration issue. Trump also did better by a couple of points among blacks and Asians than Romney. Go figure.

    The white vote was a wash, Romney beat Obama 59-39 among whites, Trump beat Clinton 57-37 with the rest voting third party. The same 20 point margin. Immigration, from talking around, nothing scientific about this. It ranks high with about 2/3rds of hispanics. The other third who were born here or family has lived here for a long time, several generations, they want illegal immigration stopped. Now that is talking with several Hispanic retired army vets so the figures are theirs.

    It probably like the Cuban population in Florida, the older Cuban's are very loyal Republicans, the younger generation not so much. But the older Cuban's turned out in droves for Trump and hence he won Florida. Perhaps fluctuation in voting groups does boil down to candidates matter.
     
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  18. Strasser

    Strasser Banned

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    Yes. Somebody as pointed out that when Democrats run photogenic males under 50 they tend to get larger turnouts from their base and independents, they have a base that is essentially shallow and illiterate, and more influenced by visual media. 4 of the last 5 Democrats in the White House have these 'qualities'; can't think of a Republican who fits the ideal profile for Democrats.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2017
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  19. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Obama was in great shape this time of year in 2009. 52% overall approval rating. He dropped to 44% in November of 2010 and rose back to 52% for 2012 according to Gallup. Timing is most important when it comes to elections. Obama's drop from Sep 2009 to Nov 2010 was the result of one thing, the ACA where 58% of all Americans were against it back then and the Democrats paid the price at the polls in Nov of 2010. Trump's problem isn't issues or policies as I see it, it is his persona, character, his temper tantrums via twitter and his overall very unpresidential appearance. Gallup in a poll in July backed that up.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/214091/t...utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

    Trump will never win over Democrats, but he could regain independents. A booming economy would cure a lot of his problems. Trump's response to Harvey and Irma also earned him points among independents although that hasn't shown up in the polls. His reaching across the aisle to Democrats on DACA is also what independents wants to see. Their tired of all this polarization and partisanship. 66% of all voters think reaching across the aisle is a good thing.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...e_trump_s_outreach_to_congressional_democrats
     
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  20. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What I have noticed also is when the Democrats run someone who isn't from the northeast, they stand a better chance of winning. Obama, Illinois, Bill Clinton, Arkansas, Carter, Georgia, LBJ Texas all won. Hillary Clinton, New York, Kerry, Massachusetts, Dukakis Massachusetts, all lost. The last Democrat from the northeast who won was JFK back in 1960. But that was a different era when the northeast was liberal Republican, Rockefeller Republican and not Democratic.
     
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  21. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Seems to me that the electorate has gone for the least qualified candidate every election since 92
     
  22. Merwen

    Merwen Well-Known Member

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    It depends on what you are looking for from your candidate. IMO Trump is eminently qualified to do what his supporters hope for, as Obama also was for the progressive Marxists that worked for generations to position him.
     
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  23. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So the party of nothing got the President who can get nothing done? I am not sure that was really their game plan.
     
  24. Strasser

    Strasser Banned

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    Actually many voted for him to keep Hillary and JEb out, and he can spend his entire term sunning himself on the White house patio as far as we're concerned. He's gone ahead and worked instead, and we're immensely pleased at all the frothing lunacy he has generated among the sickos on the left and the right.
     
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  25. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And he is a tolerable alternative to Shrillary but I still doubt that is why most people voted for him.
     

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