China’s playing the long game, and is making key moves to hedge against Trump’s tariffs

There you go with revisionist history again

Repubs and dems in washington both pushed the global agenda

Including bill and hillary

This is not partisan with me

There are protectionists and free traders of all persuasions

[quote=] American company doing business in China, did so of their own free accord. Knowing the conditions before doing business there. Yet they still felt it profitable to do so.[/quote]
That has nothing to do with nothing

As long as we call it an American company America has a stake in what that company does

 

Tariff's encourage manufacturing in America ... a true statement "IF" those tariffs apply to all other cheap labor nations - which they don't.

 

Fantasy

 

As I keep saying, though you may have missed it, manufacturing in America is best, but not manufacturing in china is second best

Because at the end of the day Thailand is not our enemy

But china is

 

Your addiction to cheap chinese goods is affecting your judgement

 

Fantasy, too.

 

but what you are saying has logical flaws ..

Claims: 1) Manufacturing in America is Best 2) Not manufacturing in China is second best

OK - I agree with (1) granted for 2) - we could quibble over Russia or Iran but - Granted (2)

So we are off to a good start - both claims are realistic.

Third claim - "Thailand is not our enemy" - True - Granted as well (3)

So what you are saying -- putting two of these claims together (claim 2 and 3) ... is that we should not be manufacturing in China because Thailand is our friend and China our enemy (our worst enemy). Call this claim (4)

Claim 4 is very complicated - not straight forward at all - but Granted or not .. Neither 2 nor 3 nor 4 - are an argument for claim (1) or with respect to 2, 3, and 4. which is - increasing manufacturing in America as the goal - and decreasing manufacturing in China through tariffs will advance that goal because the manufacturing will be moved to Thailand.

This is not a response - never mind refutation - to my argument - which is that moving manufacturing from China to Thailand will not increase manufacturing in the USA .

What you have done here though is bring up a new claim - slightly related to my claim - but still moving the goal posts. So leaving my previous claim aside. I find this new claim interesting and will wander down this rabbit hole.

So expand on Claim 4 - that it makes economic sense for the USA to reduce manufacturing to China - through a trade war (complete with full on protectionism = tariffs) .. I say claim 4 is a whole lot more complicated than you have considered - but .. perhaps not - what is your justification for this claim ?

 

Of course you won't give a link. It would refute you.

 

Even if a link is provided - China having a 10% GDP growth rate in 2010 - does not support the claim that the Trump tariffs have reduced Chinese GDP by 50% since they were introduced. Which was the claim being made.

GDP in China - as per the chart provided much earlier in this thread .. has gone from 7.5% down to 6.5% since 2014 .. and is projected to be roughly 6% this year.

The claim is not even remotely close to being true.

 

The US did not start this trade war

China did by practicing unfair trade practices that lead to the $350-$400 bil trade defifit with them

When trump triedto end the unfair trade practices china fought back

Like it or not that is still the issue

Do we continue to let china take advantage of us or not?

And should we let AMERICAN companies thumb their nose at America by refusing to manufacture in America again?

so yeah

The first goal is to end the trade deficit with china and therefore be less dependent on them

But after that what to do with American companies that have no loyalty to America is another question

 

Yes, I caught the exchange and links.
It's why I asked Joseph for his own links to back up his claims. He stated he won't provide them.

So the conclusion must be, the claims are false.

 

Weren't you the one that earlier said cheap labor is losing out to automation and robots? Pick a story and stick to it. As manufacturing depends less on cheap labor and more on modern technology America can get back in the game if there is an otherwise level playing field.

 

The world isn't binary.
More than 2 factors affect most every issue the world has.

Automation is without a doubt taking jobs away from labor. Fact.
Tariffs will bring jobs back to the USA, if in fact, all countries with cheap labor also get imposed those tariffs. If not, they just leave China for the next lowest labor country.

 

As cheap labor becomes less of a factor industries and associated jobs can and will come home if the playing field is otherwise level. Tarrifs are an attempt to force China which is the biggest abuser to conduct free and fair trade practices

 

The playing field will not be level.
There are many 3rd world countries that would love jobs.
Until all countries wages rises or USA wages falls to near same levels, the playing field is tilted and jobs are not going to leave China and go to USA.

Those are unskilled labor jobs, they would have to be the equivalent of $8.00/hr. Most Americans won't do those jobs for that low wage.

We don't have enough workers today to fill all the open jobs in USA. We will need more immigrants to fill those unskilled labor jobs. Something Rightism is opposed to.

 

[QUOTE="Giftedone, post: 1070954147, member: 50378 "LOOK - I am not interested in a left vs right debate here, and partisan platitudes. I am interested in our long term economic interest.

The one thing you are correct on is that we are no longer the sole world economic superpower. The problem is that the Trump Administration is making moves on the geopolitical chessboard as if this was still our position - but it is not. Making moves on the basis of a flawed positional analysis is the stuff that blunders are made of.

This tariff thing with China has its strengths and weaknesses - and at the end of the day we will work things out. It is how we work things out that matters. For years we were able to just whisper our desires into the ears of other nations and they would come running to comply. That was because we were the only economic game in town. This is no longer the case.

This tariff thing is not what is troubling me the most - not by any stretch. The massive blunder on the geopolitical chessboard was how the Trump admin has tried to bully other nations into going along with the Iran sanctions.

This is harming us - it is harming our long term economic security - at exactly the time when we need to be making good moves with respect to the new geopolitical realities - and I have posted about this to you previously.[/QUOTE]



China would be foolish to make any concessions. All they have to do is wait till after the election, and the newly elected Democrat President will start to dismantle the Trump executive orders and legislation ... payback for gutting Obama's legacy.

If Trump wins (good luck with that), China will have to rethink their position.

 

Not all jobs can or should come back to the US but as cheap labor becomes less of a factor many will and these will be good paying high skilled jobs operating and maintaining automated manufacturing processes. This will only happen with a level playing field though.
Unskilled labor jobs are diminishing rapidly in the USA and the last thing we need is an expanded unskilled uneducated population due to third world unchecked immigration.

 

Then the tariffs/trade wars is pointless.

 

You make a bunch of points above - some valid - some questionable. None of these points however, address the arguments made, or the questions raised, in the previous post - or the arguments you were making for that matter.

There is no point in me going back to it because .. you will just do the same thing - avoid the arguments and continuously move the goal post until I can't even remember what we were talking about any more.

So ... try again with something that actually addresses your previous arguments,and/or my questions and arguments

 

Better yet, why dont you explain to me why you think allowing china to dictate our trade policy is a good thing?

 

His initial claim was that GDP of China had been decreased by 50% due to tariffs ... obviously absurd - and he - to his credit did backtrack on that one changed it to "the GDP growth rate dropped 50% since tariffs"

This second claim is also false ... as per China's GDP growth rate since 2014 .. and so good luck finding a link that would prove his claim true.

Deep Partisan Trump love can make someone make up some rather fantastical stories.

 

Nope .. you are confusing me with someone else with respect to the Cheap Labor comments. Nor did I say we could not get back into the game. What I did do is correct some of your flawed assumptions.

None of your comments addresses the quote you cited "Tariff's encourage manufacturing in America ... a true statement "IF" those tariffs apply to all other cheap labor nations - which they don't."

You are confused with respect to what is being discussed.

 

China would be foolish to make any concessions. All they have to do is wait till after the election, and the newly elected Democrat President will start to dismantle the Trump executive orders and legislation ... payback for gutting Obama's legacy.

If Trump wins (good luck with that), China will have to rethink their position.[/QUOTE]

Agree that if the Dems get in that will happen. Not sure there are not situations where China could move before that though. Trump may be in a caving mood -

One of the things he likes to do is "Scare em and Save em" - this is a sales tactic. Build up the problem and then present solution.

Trump is going to want a Win - or what he will tout as a Win - prior to the election. Timing is key though. A resolution with China will give a short term boost the stock market. If done say now .. that effect might not carry as much weight in the mind of the voter than if done closer to the election date.

 

I don't - Do you have any more strawman fallacy you want to get of your chest ?

 

Point is to force China into a fair trade policy so we can compete on a level playing field. Don't know why you can't grasp that or maybe you just don't want to.