"China Does Not Have the Ability to Challenge the U.S."

Discussion in 'Security & Defenses' started by Clausewitz, May 19, 2011.

  1. GramCleric

    GramCleric New Member

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    I found that site as well. I also found numbers that say 1.8 Trillion. Why is it so hard to find numbers that should be easy to find? Google hates me at times.

    However, that newspaper was clearly wrong in stating it was 75 percent of the worlds manufactured goods.

    Either way, so far, data still indicates the US produces the most manufactured goods. If we could export at the worldwide average, we'd be in much better shape. Unfortunately, we still export below average.
     
  2. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    One area where the US beats China is still in the marketplace for durable goods. Where China is strongest is in consumer goods.

    For an example of this, lets look at 2 different products. How about cars and razor blades.

    Now China may be exporting a lot of razor blades, maybe many times more then the US. However, these are fairly inexpensive items, and do not require a large amount of technical ability to manufacture. The parts needed are few, very little in equipment to make them, and they sell cheaply. And they are designed to wear out.

    So yes, you may look at the sales of Chinese razor blades over the sales of US razor blades, and say "Look, China is winning the trade war!" You may even add to it other items, like cell phones, plush animals, and baby cribs. China may be winning in all of these.

    So what?

    The thing about consumer goods is that they have a very short life span, and are fairly inexpensive. Typically, 3-5 years and they are through. This is a low cost, low profit area of world trade. And the money is made up by the quantity and cheapness of items sold, not the quality.

    However, how many Chinese made cars are sold in the US? How many tractors? How many Chinese made airliners are flying around the world? How many power plants use generators made by Chinese companies? How many ships are powered by Chinese engines? How many nations in the world operate their railroads with Chinese locomotives? How many of you have Chinese refridgerators in your house?

    These are what is known as "Durable Goods". And this is what really makes the world trade move. Consumer goods manufacturing can be moved from country to country quickly and easily. Since I was born, it has moved from Japan, to the Pacific Rim (Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines) to China. Heck, 20 years ago there was almost no Chinese Industry at all.

    However, how much of the Durable Goods market has moved in that time frame? Almost nothing. The countries of the world still normally go to the US, Japan, or Europe for their vehicles. And the US is still the largest seller of commercial aircraft.

    And China still is a net importer of durable goods. Even their latest attempt to make a commercial airliner uses US designs and US engines. And many of their ships are locally made or refurbished hulls with US power plants. The factories and technicians that make these items have been in place in many cases for over a century. They already made their mistakes, and now turn out high quality items like clockwork.

    Harley Davidson, Honda, BMW, Suzuki, they all turn out high quality motorcycles. And you often see them on the road 10, 20, even 30+ years after they were made. And you can see them on a daily basis in most of the US.

    Now tell me, when was the last time you saw a motorcycle by Baja Motorsports? How about the newest offering from Wuxi Feishi International, the "Racing Motorcycle III"?

    [​IMG]

    Oh, it looks nice. 250cc motor, electric start, electronic ignition, mag wheels.

    MSRP of $950.

    Yea, an MSRP of under $1,000 USD. Now think about that. You can't even buy a 6 year old Ninja 250 for that. A 3 year old Ninja 250 will still cost you double what that thing sells for used.

    Before I rejoined the service, the guy I worked for ran 2 businesses. One was a computer store where I worked, and in the same building was a bike shop. Now he would work on almost any small engine, from a weed eater and generator to a jet ski and home built trikes with VW engines.

    However, after a few experiences, he refused to work on any engine from China other then oil changes and tuneups. The quality and standards were so poor, it lost him money. And a few times he gave estimates, where it was cheaper to just buy a new vehicle then it was to do any kind of serious work on the engine.

    This is something China just does not get. In 30 years, Japan went from making joke vehicles to becomming a world leader. In 20 years South Korea went from making Subaru clones to being one of the top 5 car producing and exporting nations.

    In 20 years, China has gone from making junk motorcycles and cars, to making junk motorcycles and cars. Because they still think that shipping out huge quantities cheaply makes them a leader.

    So yes, they are a world leader, of producing disposable motorcycles. And their car company has taken over the place once ruled by Trabant.

    Never heard of Trabant? It was another great car company from a Communist government, East Germany. Here is a picture of the 1963 Trabant 601.

    [​IMG]

    Wow, looks a lot like a 1970 Datsun I once had. They sure were ahead of their time. Gas saving 2 stroke engine, 2 cylinders, 600cc displacement. A real gas saver.

    And for comparison, here Here is a picture of the 1990 Trabant 601 Limousine.

    [​IMG]

    Wow! They moved up, a 1000cc engine, 4 cycle, 4 cylinders. Same classic body and style, it changed even less then the Mustang did. But at least their engines got better.

    Oh, wait, the engine was made for them by VW, a West German company. The car also had a plastic body, and only came from the factory in tan (it was made with waste and recycled materials from the USSR, and did not hold paint very well).

    Heck, just look at their navy. People claim China is the emerging world leader. Yet they can't even refit an old Soviet aircraft cerrier in less then 17 years. They started to rebuild the old Varyag in 1998. And they claim it may be in service by 2015. Of course, that date has changed many times already.

    In comparison, the US put out the order for the USS George Bush (CVN-77) in 2001. The keel was laid in 2003, the vessel was launched in 2006, and comissioned in 2009. From funding to construction, to finishing her first deployment in less time then it has taken China to refit an old hull.

    And in the US, that would not even be an aircraft carrier. In size and displacement, it's closest US CV would be the old Forrestal class carriers. These were all built in the 1950's, and have all been out of service for over 13 years. But even those 50+ year old ships had more capability, being true aircraft carriers. The Varyag is a skijump carrier, designed to carry the Su-33, a smaller and lighter clone of the old F-14 Tomcat. Modern F/A-18D Super Hornets would tear them up.
     
  3. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    15 yrs ago china don't even have its own electronic brand, or decent car brand, high speed train etc etc. since then, they have their own brand in almost every industries. the quality is still lacking but its improving at much faster rate, they either buy(eg,volvo) or steal or whatever the method they use to get their hand on latest tech and manufacture tech. japan and south korean has solid manufacture background, engineering, tech base before they start the economic transformation, while china has to start from scratch, and is much bigger country. chinese leader are pushing to catch up with rest of developed coutries. if this goes on without any hiccups, they eventually will catch on, just like south korean or japan did in the 80's and 90's. last year i went to china for vacation, i rode few of their own brand of cars. some has 90k miles on it, and it still running strong. alot of their industries are joined with western industries, and they get their tech from GM,GE,Ford,VW etc etc.
     
  4. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    If the care is in China, odds are greatly that the odometer is in metric units, not English. 90,000 kilometers converts to just under 56,000 miles.
     
  5. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    yes i already convert to mi. 1.6km=1mi. just saying there alot items made in china are getting better, still lacking behind western standard but better. they import alot technology from west and decade of join venture between chinese company and wester coporation made alot chinese product much better compare to few yrs back.
     
  6. Catch

    Catch Banned

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    Especially with Western companies going on the cheap/bankrupt.
     
  7. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    China surpassed the US in number of cars purchased not too long ago.
     
  8. Albert Di Salvo

    Albert Di Salvo New Member

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    China's neighbors fear and hate her. Even the DPRK fears China.
     
  9. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    LOL .. the DPRK definately fears China more than the US .. Good thing too.

    There are quite a few countries that dislike the US as well.
     
  10. Margot

    Margot Account closed, not banned

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    Nothern Afghanistan is quite happy with China.. because Chinese investment is creating jobs and luring young men away from rebel factions.

    They are building a railroad, a power plant and a huge coal mine.

    Small scale entrepreneurs have also benefited from an uptick in modest prosperity.
     
  11. Albert Di Salvo

    Albert Di Salvo New Member

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    Leave me alone.
     
  12. Plymouth

    Plymouth New Member

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    So our invasion of Afghanistan will prove useful after all. :-D
     
  13. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Of course, private ownership of cars in China was something unheard of until a handfull of years ago.

    More important then who is buying the most cars is who is selling the most cars? Well, how about this. Do you know what the largest selling cars in China are?

    1. Buick Excelle
    2. Hyundai Elantra (Chinese only model)
    3. Volkswagon Jetta
    4. BYD F3 (the first Chinese company on the list, with a Japanese engine)
    5. Volkswagon Santana
    6. Hyundai Elantra (old style)
    7. Chery QQ (2nd Chinese company, copy of the Chevy Spark)
    8. Xia Li (3rd Chinese company)
    9. Honda Accord
    10. Toyota Camry

    There you have it. The vast majority of cars sold in China are imports. And their largest selling domestic car uses an import engine.

    So it does not really matter if they are selling more cars in China then the US. What I find remarkable is that most of the cars sold come from outside China. Their highest ranked domestic model is #4.

    To give a comparison, the top car sold in the US is a Ford. And domestic cars hold the #1, 4, 6, and 7 spots.

    And does anybody want to know how many cars made in China are sold in the US? The answer is easy, none.
     
  14. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    These are good stats. It is a great thing that China is importing vehicles as they will be a big part of the growth engine in years to come.

    For the US and other countries to rectify their trade imbalances they need someone to sell to. Wages are rising quickly and China creating more disposable income, India as well.

    The US, at some point, will hit rock bottom and "in a moment of enlightenment" realize that they should be focusing on innovation and technology rather than worrying about the non existant military threat from China.

    If half the money poured into military budgets was put into technology .. we may even have a chance to compete for the markets of the future.
     
  15. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Where do you think a big chunk of the military budget goes?

    Granted, the largest chunk of the budget goes to the pay of the military and DoD. But you have to pay the people who work there, they are not slaves.

    But when you look at the Development and R&D budgets, that is basically a government funded think tank. Everything from XM Radio, Night Vision, Cell Phones, and GPS started as military programs. Heck, even the Internet we use right now started life as a military project.

    And those sensors that are becomming more and more common to tell you your tire pressure is low? Also military. In fact, for over 10 years a lot of our trucks have auto-inflating tires. I am still waiting for that to hit the civilian market.
     
  16. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I agree that funding military technology is important .. funding war and military expansion is a waste of money IMO.

    Bush increased the DOD budget from 300 Billion to 700 Billion from 2000-2008.

    Were we Global weaklings under Clinton ?

    Projecting military power in the world of today is extremely expensive and yeilds little return and in many cases an exercise in futility.

    We can not attack a nuke equiped country "realistically" .. heck we can not even to into Venesuala to protect our assets. Chavez just took them and what was done .. zero.

    My guess is that in order to raise money selling military technology will be increased. There is a big difference between this military expansionism.
     
  17. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Historically, every time a Republican President follows a Democrat one, the country has to spend a ton of money bringing the military back up into shape. Even without a war this has always been the case. It was no different when Reagan took over after Carter, after Bush took over after Clinton, and whenever the next Republican takes over after Obama.

    Historically, Democrats have always favored social spending over the military. I know that we are already seeing it in effect in my unit, and it has only been 2 years. Maintenance takes longer, less maintenance is done, less training because of lower budgets.

    Heck, probably 1/5 of the vehicles in our motor pool are currently deadlined, and they will remain that way until at least October at the earliest. Many of them will probably be like that for years, because having a working radar is much more important then having a working Hummer.

    I remember the workup after Reagan took over. Many classes of equipment were upgraded for the first time in decades. And we are almost at that point now. A lot of people do not realize it, but most of the ground equipment our Army and Marines use date to the Reagan administration. And they are almost at the end of their lifespan no matter what is done to them.

    Sure you can. India has gone to war with China, as well as Pakistan. And several of the former Soviet republics have nukes, as well as have had conflicts with Russia. Just because a nation has nukes does not mean they will use them.

    And there was nothing that could be done when Venezuela decided to nationalize it's resources or industries. That was perfectly within their right, and I would have protested if the US decided to use military force of any kind to try and reverse that decision.

    However, the long term effect to Venezuela because of that action is now being felt by them. Now they are finding it very difficult to find corporations to go in and do work there.

    Probably the last large Nationalization they did was after several corporations including AT&T upgraded their phone and data systems. AT&T did it, in exchange for the guarantee of having a 20 year monopoly on services in order to recoup their expenses. But less then 5 years after completing the work, Hugo kicked them out. AT&T lost billions of dollars in that deal.

    And now the next time they need some kind of infrastructure improvements, they are going to have a much harder time finding international help. A Haliburton or Vinci or Balfour-Beatty is going to think twice and thrice before agreeing to do work in Venezuela in exchange for future earnings on the project. After their history of nationalizing "work now pay later" projects, from now on it will be cash before construction.

    God help them if they get a major disaster like a hurricane or earthquake. Because odds are nobody else will.
     
  18. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The historical reality is that the cost of projecting power increases with time.
    This was true in the last 3 world economic empires (Dutch, Spanish, British) and it is no different now.

    We need to wake up the reality that we can not afford to police the world anymore.

    Realistically .. there is no threat of any modern military attacking the US.
    Terrorists yes .. but this is a whole different can of worms.

    If we can not protect our assets abroad then there is really no point in having 1000 military installations all over the world.
     
  19. Albert Di Salvo

    Albert Di Salvo New Member

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    The inability of people to foresee the nature of a future attack does not mean that the attack will not occur. America is very susceptible to untraceable attacks.
     
  20. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    The cost of a stick of gum increases over time. I do not understand your point here, other then the fact that inflation is a known historical fact.

    You keep bringing this up, and I will keep shooting it down. We do not have "1,000 military installations all over the world".

    And Page 4 of the annual Department of Defense Base Structure Report states quite clearly:

    DoD sites are located at all 50 States, 9 of the U.S. Territories, and 46 foreign locations.

    http://www.defense.gov/pubs/20040910_2004BaseStructureReport.pdf

    Of course, I forget. Your source also claims that every place around the world that has even 1 servicemeber is a "military installation", including recruiting offices, ROTC and JROTC classes, exchange programs, and everything else.
     
  21. Joker

    Joker Banned at Members Request Past Donor

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    You only need one side to say, "I don't want to talk about peace," to create the necessity for all sides to prepare for war, even those that want to talk about peace.
     
  22. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It has little to do with inflation.

    Every empire has suffered the same fate. Technological innovation leads to military superiority leading to economic hedgemony. The cost of protecting economic hegemony increases with time because the natural tendency of technology is to spread out. It can not be contained.

    The Brits had the gattling gun .. with one gunship and a few men they could take over an entire African nation. The return on investment was enormous.

    At somepoint in time the African nation got the gattling gun. In order to take over you need to send not just one gunship but an entire armada. You will take casualties and this is expensive.

    Nevermind fighting a "real" country .. Afghanistan and Iraq are bankrupting the coffers and we get zero return on investment.


    This is the first time you mentioned this .. perhaps I missed it earlier. This was my source.
    http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5564


    It really does not matter. The fact is that the total defense related spending exceeds 1 trillion annually.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States

    With revenues down from 2.7 Trillion to 2.2 Trillion, this kind of spending can not be sustained for long.

    This is not only an economic reality but a technological and historical reality as well.

    Our influence around the world will remain a powerful one for many years to come, but it is currently in rapid decline.

    We need to be spending money on technology to maintain this influence.

    Pretending to be world police is a losing endgame
     
  23. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I agree. This is why we should be focusing on these things rather than trying to police the world.
     
  24. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Been over this before. This is not a source, it is basically un-researched propaganda.

    They can't even tell us where all of these bases are. They just throw out numbers with little to no references except to other similar sites.

    And I love the references to nobases.org. Yea, they are really a reliable reference.

    Another bogus smokescreen reference. Been busted many times.

    Notice, this figure includes a lot of things that have nothing to do with the military. The FBI, Veterans Affairs, even NASA and State Department budgets are partially or entirely thrown into that figure.

    This inflates the real figure of around $660 billion to a figure much higher. And most of the real military budget is already cut pretty slim. The largest increase in the 2010 military budget was an increase in construction, up 19%. A big chunk of this is because of base closures. People are being moved from one base to another, so of course more buildings need to be built or upgraded.

    And the biggest looser in the last budget? Family housing, down 20.2%. Procurement (new weapons) is another area that went down, 1.8%.

    Then why not make cuts in the largest segment of the budget?

    Entitlement spending makes up around 55% of the US budget. The Defense Department is only 20%. Seems to me you would make a lot more savings in cutting from 55% then you would from 20%.

    Of course, if you want to see a big slash in the military budget that will not see a peep from me, cut out most of the deadweight civilians from the DoD. There would be big savings of a lot of those high paid GS individuals were cut loose, and replaced with military members who make a lot less money.

    You could pay 4 or 5 Lieutenants what you pay 1 middle rank GS individual. And those high paid GS and contractor civilians doing vehicle maintenance? Cut them all and recruit and train 10 more privates. This employs even more people, and costs less at the same time.
     
  25. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There is nothing to Bust ? There can be some disagreement on what should be included and what isnt .. but anyway you slice it or dice it .. the figure is high.

    707 Billion DOD
    21 Billion Defense related energy department
    47 Billion Homeland Security
    63 Billion International Affairs
    114 Billion Vetrans affairs and Pensions

    I left out a few things but this is a really big number
    I did not include interest payments.

    63 Billion on "International affairs" Are you freaken kidding me ? The entire federal spending of Canada is only around 160 Billion/year.

    Trying to police the world costs money .. and Ventrans affairs and Pensions are part of that money.


    Keep in mind that a portion of Entitlements is payroll taxes and another portion is paid by the states so the actual number is not 55%



    The real point here is that Policing the world is too expensive now and will only get more expensive with time.

    .


    500 Billion in lower revenues .. and an increase "just in the DOD" from 300 Billion to 700 Billion since 2000 = 900 Billion

    Add in homeland security and the rediculous international affairs amount and you get to over 1 Trillion of the deficit.

    I also agree that we need cuts to entitlements and to the massive civil service and we need to raise taxes on the rich and close some loopholes where expedient.

    It is going to be painfull .. but it has to be done.
     

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