China has already lost the trade war

Discussion in 'Asia' started by SEAL Team V, Sep 27, 2019.

  1. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    I taught economics.
     
  2. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    To what end? If we don't have enough leverage to bring them to heel, and I submit we do not, all we do is damage both economies.
     
  3. stone6

    stone6 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The U.K. holds around $350 billion in U.S. debt. China holds $1.2 trillion. India as a "replacement" for China in buying our debt is TBD and conjecture, as is the relationship between China and African countries. From the "opening of China" in the seventies, China has used its surpluses to build its own domestic infrastructure and take hundreds of millions of Chinese out of poverty. Its now the largest consumer market in the world. GM sells more vehicles in China than in the United States. What that allows China to do economically is to move increasingly to a domestic "consumer economy," balancing that against the accompanying increasing demands for democratic institutions. We, on the other hand, have an aging population, with a barely positive population growth rate and continue to move to a two economic class society of a few rich and many poor. And, it is this continuing concentration of wealth and income that is driving the rise of "socialist policies."
     
  4. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I think what is often overlooked is that, yes imports from China are down about $40 billion a year. But in order to accomplish that the US taxpayer has paid almost $80 billion in tariffs. I'm not convinced that's winning. :)
     
  5. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    So to you it's not about reducing the trade imbalance or bringing jobs back, but to punish China?
     
  6. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    What percentage of China's trade is with the US?
    The United States is third, exporting $1.6 trillion. In 2018, China shipped 18% of its exports to the United States. That contributed to a $419 billion trade deficit. China's trade with Hong Kong, at 14%, was almost as much.
    China Economy: Facts, Effect on US Economy - The Balance

    https://www.thebalance.com › china-economy-facts-effect-on-us-economy-3...
     
  7. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The person my post was directed to was happy that Big Corporations were losing.
     
  8. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    And what do you know about the Chinese economy?
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2019
  9. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Well that's an embarrassment, you taught economics yet you don't understand China's bloated fake bubble economy at all.
     
  10. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Farmers are loosing the market.
    Argentina signed a trade agreement with china, concerning farm products, mainly soya.
    Despite that the trade deficit is still growing.
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2019
    ronv likes this.
  11. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    China's total exports were were 2 trillion 500 bill of that was to the US. Hong Kong? don't yu think that is actually part of china now? you consider that an export?
     
  12. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    upload_2019-10-20_21-2-44.png
     

    Attached Files:

  13. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Trade wars tend to have that effect. China is still rolling along at GDP growth of 6% "stated" - which is probably more like 4-5%. This is still much higher than our growth of 2%.
     
  14. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    not really china GDP is $14T, so if it even stop trading with US completely about $500B, its about 0.03% of their GDP.
     
  15. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    If you knew anything about economics, you'd have a pretty good idea how much I would know as a minimum.
     
  16. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, and the moon landings were fake, too.

    The Chinese economy has its problems, including asset bubbles created by misallocating capital by old elements of a command economy, but calling China a "bloated fake bubble economy" is absurd.
     
  17. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    A 3% hit to GDP is something. If we suffered such a hit our GDP growth would go from 2% to negative.

    That said - I think your overall point is a fair one - that the pain to China is not crippling.
     
  18. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    I don't know anything about economics, so why don't you just tell me what you know so I can judge how seriously I should take your comments?
     
  19. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I posted the below in this very same thread... you obviously only hear your own voice

    New Study Shines Light — Literally — On China's And Russia's Fake GDP Data
    https://www.investors.com/politics/...iterally-on-chinas-and-russias-fake-gdp-data/


    China admits its GDP data is fake
    https://www.afr.com/world/china-admits-its-gdp-data-is-fake-20170119-gtuh42


    Another Chinese city admits 'fake' economic data
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-city-admits-fake-economic-data-idUSKBN1F60I1



    here's more

    http://www.politicalforum.com/index...t-the-trade-war.562090/page-3#post-1071016382
     
  20. Ernest T.

    Ernest T. Newly Registered

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    Another campaign promise that Trump is making good on.

    If he can get China to play fair, there doesn't have to be any losers.
     
  21. stone6

    stone6 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Ah...one of those "win-win situations," eh? Don't ever gamble.
     
  22. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    \

    I think we are circling a drain here. the US and Hong Kong
    China GDP is not 14 but 12 Trill. China has been know to vastly inflate thier GDP. thier exports to us was 540 bill, that is much closer to 5% than 3.

    I think we are circling a drain here. the US and Hong Kong, who cares about Hong Kong. In the trade discussion. We are talking food for which we are draining our midwest aquifers to feed them. In 30 years when these aquifers are dry our food costs will soar. Honk Kong is not china for economic purposes. Politically they are tied but not economically.
     
  23. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    So you pay tariffs, it is a war, they are causalities and costs to be borne. Gee lets go back to the clinton, bush, obama policies then. Trump is handling it wrong and is using the tariffs to finance the tax cut to the rich that he gave them. I don't agree with his strategy but I agree that the war must be fought. I would hope Bernie or tulsi would keep the tariffs but send it back to the american people in the form of a larger deduction in income taxes so that the money goes back to the consumers and not financing a cut to the rich.
     
  24. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    you might want to look at fact than belief rumors plz provide link on the claim that china inflate the GDP number cause all the source point to $15T are from world bank and other independent source. for PPP they are even higher.

    http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/countries-by-gdp/

     
  25. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    That article does not say that the figures provided are from the world bank. China has been over stating thier growth for years.

    And please argue how a 450 bill trade deficit that has american manufacturing jobs leaving for china is a good thing.
     

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