Chinese Political, military, economic, weakness.

Discussion in 'Asia' started by rilzic, Jun 4, 2010.

  1. rilzic

    rilzic New Member

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    I alright I have seen a lot of threads about china.

    By no means am I degrading, demeaning, discrediting, or anything of the sort of Chinese culture. My interest in all this comes from a interest in the culture.

    This is purely about political, military, economic, demographic, and overall outlook or a personally weak position to prediction of future outcomes.

    China. A nation of 1.4 billion people with with wealth inequality that dwarf's the western world. It has been a subject of revolt for many, many years. One of the main concerns of the CCP (Chinese communist party, referred as CCP from now on) has been placating the people through economic growth. Besides that they use brute force, and small amounts of limited democratic rule.

    Also poverty is not measured by the same standard as it is in the west, there is no correlation.

    I'll go into it if anyone wants to but the demographic scenario that china has placed it self in to me seems unstable. Atleast if CCP's goal is development and not just staying in power.

    The demographics of China are unlike anywhere else on earth. Unlike the unprecedented economic potential of China, most people don't hear of the unprecedented population problem that have. No, I am not talking about the 1.4 billion people they have, but the 130/120 males for every 100 females they have. This leads to many problems, do they export males, enlist them in the military, increase acceptance of homosexuality? or just let urban culture with it's low birth rate take care of the problem?

    None of this is wrong, people will do as they please. but 120 males for every female of a population of 1.4 billion adds up, that reported to be at least 20 to 40 million males that won't be able to find a partner in life.

    Not to mention pollution. In America pollution prevention is needed, in China it is desperate. I shouldn't need to bring up the amount of times that the top few most polluted cities are always China. There is a reason china leads the green technology implementation, because their cities are by far the worst.

    Now unemployment. China has massive unemployment, despite what some things you see on the internet, china has about 120 million of migrant workers. Not to mention the hundreds of millions of agriculture workers and rural people. Most of the time Chinese figures of unemployment are taken from urban areas, and the modest rate of 9%... of 1.4 billion people.

    Ageism. Ageism in the west is discriminating against the ... old. Cool, most developed cultures are going through it. In America we call them baby boomers and they are the one supposed to sink our social security right? Well American politics don't matter here. In China they are already facing this problem as a developing nation, not as a developed society. In a completely utilitarian or amoral system that could be a benefit. They lack a modern health care system and most will die off before they become a burden on the health care system. Yet that's not the case, china is facing a aging population less then but like the developed world, without the resources to deal with it.

    Response. China has hinted that they are thinking about a way to end the one child policy, and encouraging females to not be aborted. They have seen some progress recently but these policies have been going on for decades. They do have policies where minorities don't have to follow the one child policy and rural peoples don't have to as well. So recently they have seen a small progress on these fundamental things.

    Result:

    China is going to have a population of ten's of millions young males, without even a chance of a mate, who are unemployed or have questionable work, looking across the street at skyscrapers. There is a reason they maintain a army of 3 million people and it isn't because of a outside force. I know it doesn't seem like much but it has been projected that up to two hundred million Chinese as in 200,000,000 Chinese or more could be facing this situation, not including all the other down and outs that are a part of all societies.


    I don't know, I'm pretty stupid. Demographics have a pretty (*)(*)(*)(*) good prediction of societies, barring a few exceptions, you can almost exactly track a nations well being by the general age of it's population. Obviously there is a correlation with development, but with china, it's a bit off. They have the age of a young developed nation (like the US), and micro demographics of a maniac, but they are only 1/4 or less developed.


    Point is that the unrest that the CCP have always worried about is on their doorstep. Hypothetically, lets say they manage to develop 3/4 of the 1.4 billion there, unless we come up with a bit of technology, there is no way.

    Again I don't know, but I don't think China will be the superpower that people think it might be. It will be a super power as in one of the prominent powers of the globe. They are going to be facing problems unlike we have known in the 20th century. The West will as well, including Russia and Japan. If nothing else it will sure be interesting how these peoples play this out.

    So that last sentence gave me a thought for another thread... so if I forgot anything i'll post it later.

    Hope you enjoy.
     
  2. riza

    riza Member

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    Wait wait, let me quote you and step on it for a second to see if there is any weight.

    Really? REALLY? And Americans don't? Patriot Act? Heavy control in the media by the White House and CIA? Secret prisons? Electorate college manipulation? Research work I got from my being in polsci.

    By the way I should mention state as a disclaimer that I will only mention US because I don't know or care about Europe or her system too much.

    What exactly do you mean no correlation?!

    I am not sure exactly what you are talking about in terms of development but I assume this is what you are talking about and suggest you check this out:

    Google China's "5 Year Plans". The plans has changed and adapted to accommodate needs, etc.

    Good question. Unprecedented situation in China creates new problems. Fortunately as China improves her economy she'll merely export (for example 300,000,000 Chinese now live in Africa, for and as a part of the African-China relationship) the people, while more and more people will be able to go to school and find solutions for this problem.

    China will just create an entire department dedicated to this, just like Japan created the "Earthquake Engineering" department because Japan suffers a lot of earthquakes and need people to major in this to solve these problems.

    A year ago I would've forgiven you for ignorance. Have you not seen the steps China took to make herself environment friendly? Dongtan City? How about almost $50 billion (USD) invested to clean up and protect the environment? China now produces more wind turbines and solar panels year after year than any other country on this planet. China probably has more than half the world added together.

    Bah, US have this problem too. According to Ron Paul and many other source that I value, unemployment is about 20%. I do not believe in the official figure.

    FUNNY! You seriously know more about the military than the US service members that I know. And some of these people are stationed in Korea and studied East Asian military and tactics / strategy.

    Let me tell you something. China's military budget and size is nothing compared to US's 10 or so carriers (contained in a CSG) with budget more than most of the world added together.

    Coupled with the facts that she has a surplus generals (Robert Gates has said "we have too many generals") and it is unneeded as America is already protected by nature.

    China's military strategy, for example, believes in low-flying and high numbers of air to intimidate neighboring countries (India and Japan for example) and you know what? It (*)(*)(*)(*)ing work. You know what Japan's premier said word for word? "China is a scary country."

    And you know what? it works in practice too. I suggest you look into the MIG alley combat in Korea War.

    China's army population is her trademark. It's like US's air carrier, Navy SEAL, etc is her trademark.

    China have more excuse to justify her military spending than US does, truth be told. Even Robert Gates has been cutting down programs because many of them are excess and still show that America is still in her Cold War mentality.

    You still have a lot to learn about ethnic Chinese too.

    China is currently the second strongest country in the world and many experts say China hasn't even begun to peak yet (economically or militarily).

    10-20 years ago China didn't even have any of this. Now China is building the world's biggest bridge, longest train (that stretch from Africa to Europe to China), etc.

    You really think that's it for China? In fact let me take you to China. Even Japan and Russia wants to walk closer to China than US.

    To end this, I will say:
    You have a lot of reading to do. Read up some official reports about China and her economic development. Read the forum sinodefence, etc.
     
  3. AF_Commando

    AF_Commando New Member

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    China will never become a super power despite what anyone says. at most they will remain a regional power. why? they have no navy or air force large enough to do damage say in the Americas or Europe or Africa.

    as for the single men either chinas getting real gay or there going to start mail order husbands.
     
  4. rilzic

    rilzic New Member

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    I never wanted to imply that the US doesn't or hasn't used force or less then democratic means. Just that the chance for instability in china, in my opinion is greater and during the economic transition to a first world country that unrest presents a large problem. Political regress, from the public is more limited in china, especially among the poor, who in number, are larger then the entire US population. I don't doubt that china will be counted among the world leaders, but that many in the west, tend to overlook many of the weaknesses that should be taken into account when analyzing the future of the country. Like the US both countries face large hurdles that can be overcome but shouldn't be ignored either.

    What I mean is that a person in poverty in china living in a primitive house in the west, who is relocated for a government investment in solar power, and only has a crappy agriculture job, is different then your average poor person in America. While America does have some disgusting poverty, there isn't as much risk of general unrest because of it. There are relative and absolute measurements of poverty, many times when people look at the numbers they don't distinguish between the two. Since back in 2008, i believe china has been making good progress with it's general healthcare system, but there isn't nearly a safety net of that of a western country, at least not yet. This, as well as the situation of people in poverty in china as well as the other things I talk about could... might, lead to a situation that is possibly unstable.

    Yes I know. China has shown good adaptability. China has shown atleast in the last few years that it is taking on issues, such as demographics (one-child policy), pollution, wealth inequality. These problems are things you can change in a 5 or 10 year period. China will be facing and dealing with them for a long time and from now and till then, they are serious challenges that westerns shouldn't ignore when talking about China. The demographic problem will last for decades, with the number of coal power plant, pollution will not be solved for decades. Despite the fast economic growth, wealth inequality and poverty will remain serious issues for a decade or two at the very least. If there is mass unrest the Chinese government is going to be faced, in my opinion, with change or holding onto power. They have shown adaptability in terms of economic issues, but less so with political ones, such as Hong Kong, and the other, semi independent areas and CCP itself.


    There are not 300 million Chinese in Africa. I have never heard anything like that. After a quick look, the most I saw was under 1 million Chinese in Africa. Resentment in Africa about Chinese workers is already starting to become a issue. Exporting the population that Chinese will have too, is unrealistic, as total immigration rates of all countries today do not equal that many people. I love demography as a subject and agree that it will be fascinating to see it play out. I just don't see how there is going to be a easy solution like a government agency or emigration. But the fact remains that that many men who can't marry in their home country, who could be facing unemployment (since men with jobs will get the girl) is a huge problem. Disgruntled men are the leading cause of unrest in society.

    Oh I know about China's investment... huge investment. It remains that their investment in to dirty technology is also huge, infact it is many times the investment in clean technology. Look at coal power plants coming on-line, even the few plans to build modern ones are dirty technology. In the end even with increase investment, the clean energy investment isn't or won't keep up with china's growing demand for electricity. In a way china is in the same place as the US, we are both the Saudi Arabia's of coal, along with Russia. China is about the same size that the US, geographically, but your population is 4 (or 4.5)times the US. China has been going down the dirty industry path for 30 years, it's going to take along time to clean this up, let alone implement enough green technology, even at the rates china is investing in it. Plus that is only air pollution, water pollution is probably a more time sensitive problem. Not only pollution in the river systems but also in ground water as well. I'm sorry to say but CCP, mostly put this off their agenda, until the last decade, and even then focused mainly on the developed east, and large cities. China Consistently ranks for some of the most polluted air and water ways. The Yangtze Dam (a Green project), forced the relocation of 1.5 million people, that's more then the entire city that I live in, plus poor drinking water, and air quality are going to become more of a issue, as the Chinese people become more developed (wealthy), and resentment... or feeling of injustice are going to become more of a problem for those left behind the Chinese economic phenomenon. Not something people would overthrow the government over, true, but on top of everything else I'm saying it becomes another facet of the problem the Chinese government will have to overcome.

    Yes we do, but that is during one of our worse economic downturns. Hopefully in a few years it will come down to the historic 4-6%.

    China is going through a demographic transition of rural people coming to cities and considering the size of the Chinese rural population, this trend won't end in the near future. This leads to unemployment, underemployment, and job competition. On top of that there are the migratory workers, that aren't treated well, a lot of them as in ten's of millions. Unemployment is a fact for all developing nations, as rural people want to live like those of developed people in the country, for example like those living in shanghai. Unemployed, like males, are usually the manpower behind unrest.
     
  5. rilzic

    rilzic New Member

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    I do know about Chinese military build up, the U.S. military budget. The Chinese do not fear invasion. I also agree with everything you said. I didn't mean for china to justify it's military budget. This isn't a America vs. China thread. It's just about china and the future of the country.

    When you are talking about possible realistic conflicts, such as war with the US, it would be mostly a air and navy fight. Anyway, ask your buddies then, what the main fear of the PLA ground forces are. Internal or external threats? I'm not saying they aren't a deterrent or that they aren't there for external reasons, but the most likely use of those troops is to quell internal turmoil, they know that and are trained for it.

    I never said that is it for china. Saying china will collapse wasn't the point I was trying to make. Obviously china hasn't peaked yet. Sure China could be number one, in time, I wasn't saying otherwise.

    My point was that China is going to be facing some big problems. 50 years down the line the world isn't going to be like it is today with the US as a clear hyperpower that is much stronger then the runner up. China in 50 years could be the largest power, but it will be one of many and that the road to be number one won't be as smooth as many make it out to be. That population problems that the developing world is facing like aging demographic, are a problem for china as well, unlike the rest of the developing world. Aging demographics put a huge strain on the economy, one which a developing country like China is not prepared to deal with. India for example does not have this problem, as their population is still growing at a decent rate. People rarely include such things in long term economic models. Another thing, is increasing wages, which will drive off foreign investment. By then China, if it doesn't already, will have a large enough domestic market and enough room for growth that economic growth will continue, but it will start to slow, as it does, investments will move to lower wage countries, spurring growth there. That's why you show this kind of miracle growth in japan, then the Asian tigers and now china.

    When you add all this up, what you see is that the economic outlook for china, while great, isn't going to maintain the rate that it has since the 80's (near 9-10% growth). It could be maintained and if it does good for china, but to do so I think the chance is low. Even at 5-7% would slow projections down alot, which I think is reasonable. It wouldn't have to much impact on military related things since they get first dibs on tax dollars, but job creation a and other things would suffer greatly, when you are talking about the hundreds of millions of peasants, working almost third world agriculture jobs out in the relatively undeveloped west.

    Anyway thanks for the website sinodefence, i'll check it out.

    Also you mentioned taking me to China.... I accept.
     
  6. Stay_Focused

    Stay_Focused New Member

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    There are many regions with more female than males. Eastern Europe and South east Asia came to my mind. Globalization hopefully will ease the Chinese problem.
     
  7. umairwasi

    umairwasi New Member

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    China will not interrupt in international politics before year 2020, untill China achieve the financial targets that China sets through implementation of vast industrial planning. Chinese economist blieves that industrial revolution will boost heavily when China free the Industrial electric in 2012 (next year). After that China will do that a super power will have to do, she will make army, navy and everyting and every powers that a super power will need.
     
  8. Sadistic-Savior

    Sadistic-Savior New Member Past Donor

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    You mean the same Patriot Act that has been approved by the vast majority of elected leaders? That Patriot Act?


    This isnt the 1950s 0r 60s anymore. Things have changed. We have a vast technological advantage over China...not to mention that we match them plane for plane numerically anyway.

    China's airforce may be scary to Japan...to us? Not so much. Russia's airforce would pose far more of a threat to us than China's. Even Britain or France could pose more of a threat. China's airforce is quite pathetic by superpower standards.


    Its a population they cannot leverage because they have no way to transport them. Even if they did, how would they stop us from bombing them into oblivion? China's only practical defense against us is their nuclear deterrent.

    I am not that worried about China's military.


    Militarily speaking, Russia could take on China alone easily. Russia's military is far superior to China's. I would say China is 3rd at best.


    It still doesn't. Their technology is decades behind ours.


    Yeah, someone brought that up on here a while back. When we looked closer, guess what we found? The actual companies doing the designing were not Chinese, they were French or Canadian or whatever. China was just funding it and doing some of the labor.

    Is it really a cultural achievement when other cultures are doing it for you?


    I think a lot of people inflate China's relevance far beyond what it really is.


    Yep.

    It is possible they could become a superpower. But not under their current government.
     
  9. KatherineSimpson

    KatherineSimpson Banned

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    Chinese society is facing at least a dozen socioeconomic trends that are unsustainable.

    Local party leaders have abused local populations with illegal fees and other exploitation, so much so that the protests are growing in frequency and intensity, to include migrant workers, Tibetans and Uighurs.

    These abuses have completely undermined economic security for Chinese citizens, because there is no form of financial planning package that the party leaders can’t steal: a citizen puts his money in a bank and the party man destroys the bank with bad loans; he gets job at a factory and the party man ruins the factory; he invests in land and the party man confiscates it; if he is one of the few lucky workers with a pension the party man can still misappropriate the funds; if he tries to have a son to care for him in his old age, the party man can impose fines or seize land for alleged violations of the one-child policy. With no way to secure one’s economic future, any savings go into a mattress and domestic spending is depressed.
    The one-child-per-family policy has also caused demographic damage – too many men with no women to marry and too many seniors to support.

    The current export-driven economic model for China, a cataract of dollars – the only thing holding China together – depends on massive foreign demand and economic growth which will inevitably slow down in a recession, causing an explosion in the already toxic unemployment problem.

    Foreign investors are becoming nervous about the lack of regulation or quality control, and the growing labor unrest.

    Contrary to all of the economic facts, the party still believes it has a winning socioeconomic model, just because its temporary advantage in cash holdings protected them from the worst of the recession. But even that nest egg is going to be wasted: fiscal mismanagement has already wasted hundreds of billions on unnecessary projects and destroyed many banks with unrecoverable loans.

    The probability that China can keep every one of these problems under control, so as to prevent widespread unrest on the scale of Tiananmen in the next decade, is practically zero. Any one of a dozen factors could trigger serious unrest: more labor disputes, more abuses by rural party leaders, another mismanaged epidemic such as SARS, more mining accidents, more flooding, another earthquake. Water supplies, in particular, loom as a critical problem.

    China has more internet users than America, 3 million websites, and hundreds of millions of cellphones; hackers in China and abroad are outsmarting the censors – the party can no longer control the flow of news and information except by shutting down the entire system.


    China could collapse into chaos on any number of pretexts. The potential trigger events, “proximate causes” if you will, fall roughly into 24 categories.

    1. Internal politics: hardliners versus reformers, rogue army units
    2. Foreign policy goes awry: Taiwan, clash with U.S. Navy, using foreign firms as scapegoats for labor conditions
    3. Government mismanagement: earthquake, accident, unsafe products
    4. Student unrest
    5. Dissidents find new, proactive leaders
    6. A lawsuit or petition goes awry
    7. Media coverage exposes scandal
    8. Police overkill in a crisis
    9. Aggressive crackdowns on dissidents
    10. Communication blackout backfires
    11. Backlash against local party leaders and their corruptions and sheer larceny
    12. Conditions in rural areas
    13. Abuse of migrant workers who crowd the cities
    14. Abuse of minorities
    15. Medical crisis
    16. Water crisis
    17. Economic crisis: demand and growth drop, party mismanages stimulus, foreign firms leave
    18. Firms and banks collapse, unemployment explodes
    19. Continuing backlash over property confiscations
    20. One child per family
    21. City living conditions
    22. Pensions
    23. Friction among labor groups
    24. Labor strikes

    Within these 24 areas of concern, there are perhaps 200 potential issues which could trigger massive unrest. Here are examples:



    Outrages by local party leaders --
    Party leaders attack opponents, staged news, planted weapons and other evidence
    Party leaders attack opponents, threaten jobs, punishments, shuts down a firm, block supplies for firm
    Factory money embezzled
    Job given or sold to unqualified official connected to party leader
    Business monopoly goes to individual connected to party leader
    Perquisites for party leaders
    Leader cuts off mail service, power, water, transportation, family services such as funerals
    Leader steals or blocks aid money, food-for-work money, micro-credits
    Growing shortage of steal-able land impels party leaders to expand into other abusive rackets
    Illegal fee collection
    Party rounds up locals for work projects

    Rural problems --
    Deaths from poor health care, non-sterile equipment and HIV, incompetence
    Death from no health care at all
    Medical bankruptcies
    Rural children without parents or schools grow up
    Child birth defects, illnesses and death from malnutrition
    Injuries and deaths from dangerous school buildings
    Child labor, abuses, slavery, human trafficking, accidents
    Working conditions at brickyards
    Secret rural armies, cults, sects, vigilantes
    Rural reaction to fees and abuses by party leaders
    Reduction in a government service
    Rash of suicides


    Economic collapses --
    Firm, factory, closes, or goes bankrupt, or sinks under the weight of pension costs and interest payments
    Wages, unemployment benefits, pensions, reduced, delayed or wiped away entirely
    Bank goes bankrupt, is looted, sinks under the weight of loan arrears or investment in shaky firms, savings wiped away
    Layoffs
    Rural unemployment, 150 million
    Unemployment in Shanghai textiles
    Unemployment in Guangdong, factory closures
    Unemployment in northern rust belt
    Unemployed students
    Unemployment due to overcapacity in all the wrong sectors
    Unemployed begin protesting in their own right
    Wage increases reduce hiring
    Local governments and banks collapse from overexposure due to mismanaged stimulus
    Firm shutdown causes chain reaction in supply chain
    Firms shuts down in dispute with government

    Labor actions --
    Increasing strikes: wages, arrears, pension arrears, conditions, safety, abuse, overtime, contract violations
    Labor talks go awry, workers angry, labor leaders arrested, double-crosses
    Japanese firm hires young workers in already-cohesive groups which are easy to organize into labor actions
    Strikes spread from factory to factory
    Strike victory impels other strikes
    Strike causes chain reaction among suppliers upstream or consumers downstream
    Rural workers strike
    Push for a real Solidarity-like union
    Firm reacts badly to strike, hires scabs, older workers
    Employers exploit workers without permits
    Harsh Japanese and ex-military overseers cause backlash
    2008 labor law promises unfulfilled
    Mine owners handle accidents and lung disease by mistreating or firing miners and families


    As we saw earlier, these potential crises fall into 24 major categories. If we asserted that the government has a 95 percent chance of keeping each of those 24 critical areas from provoking widespread unrest, that would still make for serious trouble. Why? Because the probability of keeping all of these crises from going viral equals 0.95 raised to the power of 24…or 29 percent. No matter how good the government is at preventing these pots from boiling over, the fact of the matter is that there are 24 of them.

    Instead of assigning an arbitrary 95% win-percentage to each, let’s fine-tune the numbers a little: let us make a guess as to the true probability of each category, based on the party’s demonstrated level of skill, or lack thereof, at coping with domestic problems.

    Internal politics: 95% chance Beijing forestalls such a crisis for a decade
    Foreign policy goes awry: 99%
    Government mismanagement: 95
    Dissidents find new, proactive leaders: 96
    A lawsuit or petition goes awry: 97
    Media coverage exposes scandal: 95
    Police overkill in a crisis: 96
    Aggressive crackdowns on dissidents: 97
    Communication blackout backfires: 97
    Backlash against local party leaders: 80
    Abuse of migrants who crowd the cities: 90
    Abuse of minorities: 90
    Medical crisis: 95
    Water crisis: 90
    Economic crisis: 90
    Firms collapse, unemployment spike: 70
    Property confiscations: 80
    One child per family: 97
    City living conditions: 90
    Pensions: 96
    Friction among labor groups: 99
    Labor strikes: 60

    If these projections are even roughly accurate, we can surmise that the probability of the government preventing any major spread of unrest for a decade is equal to the product of all these numbers: 0.95 x 0.99 x 0.95 and so forth.

    That final answer is…one percent. Or, a 99 percent chance we will see the crowds in Tiananmen again.

    As you can see, I selected unemployment, labor unrest, the confiscations, and protest against local party abuses as the most likely crisis triggers: all four are already causing problems, and my estimate is that keeping just those four areas under control will be so difficult that there is only a 27 percent chance the party will succeed. The issue of minorities is also critical, I think.

    This estimate is generous to the party in a couple of ways. First, as I said there could be some new way for the party to get into trouble that I haven’t even thought of – China sees the arrival of meteors, extraterrestrials, the Messiah, an eruption of militant Daoists, whatever. Second, trouble in one of the 24 problem areas could increase the prospect of trouble in some of the other 23, and possibly even a chain reaction across several at once.

    Anyone who disagrees with my 24 estimates is free to assign their own numbers and do their own multiplying.
     
  10. RollingWave

    RollingWave New Member

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    Ehhh

    Military power in the modern era is relative to your economic power, if China's economy do grow to the point where they are on par with the US (and that probably means a significantly higher overall GDP than the US and a GDP per capita that is more inline with the higher end of developing nations .) then it is more than likely that their military capacity will upgrade to a similarly comparable standards as the US. but this hasn't happened yet, and won't happen that quickly baring some unforeseen disastor. (and in that event it probably won't bold that well for China either)

    However, there is certainly a chance that could happen sometime down the line, though that line is more like 50 years from now. as they still have plenty of hurdles to clear .

    Still, if they DO manage to clear all those hurdles then the China of that time won't be the China we known now anyway. there will most likely be signfiicant social and political changes that went along with the economic development, something that IS happening just that it isn't quite as apparent to outsiders.

    Again, I bring out the most logical comparason cases. just look at Taiwan and South Korea, two fellow East Asian country of pretty similar background (was ruled by a militaristic government which focused first on economic improvements) you see a very similar pattern to China of today. and in both cases today both country are modern democratic and economically successful countries.

    China's bigger size will probably make this size slower. but there are still plenty of reasons to believe that this will happen, there are all sorts of incentives for the PRC to make sure their economy move in a good direction , and once that happens there are plenty of reasons to believe it will lead to social and political transitions
     
  11. riza

    riza Member

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    This.

    Hi fellow Taiwanese. :)

     
  12. presidiuman

    presidiuman New Member

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    who sais they aspire to be a superpower? is it declared by the Chinese Communist Government ... ??

    "no navy to do damage" .. mmm .. wasn't it a year or two ago .. that an outdated chinese submarine ... surfaced behind a US Carrier ... whilst being fully protected by all her destroyers and frigates??? .. mocking the US military ... or was this not released to the US public .. since the US government CONTROLS the media ... Oops .. that wouldn't be right would it .. that'll make the US .. to be somewhat communist .. wouldn't it???



     
  13. tksensei

    tksensei Banned

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    Obviously it does not. You need to relax a little bit, young fella.
     
  14. mrholmes

    mrholmes New Member

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    i dont believe that china will be the likes of south korea or taiwan
    despite militarian, those government in both countries are not doctrinized commu
    i dont think such communist gov will go democratic by their own good will
    also if china goes democracy, will it be the best for them? i dont think so
    so many problems, so vast area, so many opinion
    imo, china's best government form is communist or monarchy
    and they already have it

    one that i know of, one of the big problem is china demographic
    although mostly homogeneous, china still have problems from not so integrated people
    also seeing how the government handle minorities, by do not give them at least cultural protection against han people
    its clearly creates more problems than solution
    it just the problems are buried, but definitely could rise from the dead at anytime

    although i really hope the china could solve their problems
    i mean, country at that size, if they have big problems, all the world will also have troubles
    i think all the world should not be too depended on china or maybe usa or another country, but on their own

    so if any country have problems, their troubles is mininal, not like now when the worlds waits for usa consuming rate, or china cheap product etc
     
  15. Sadistic-Savior

    Sadistic-Savior New Member Past Donor

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    I guess we wont know until you provide an actual source for your claim. This is the first I have heard about that.


    Gee, you dont say. What a shock. You are presenting "evidence" based on nothing.


    Oh the irony, heh heh.

    The Chinese Media is subject to veto by the CCP on a whim. It happens so often it has become a cliche.

    The US media often says things the US government does not want them to say. Some parts of the media base all of their content on criticism of the US government. PBS, MSNBC, CNN...those are just the major ones.

    Not to mention that there are no restrictions here at all on foreign media, which also criticizes the US government a great deal. There are no political opinions that are banned in the US. Anyone can express any opinion they want.
     
  16. waltky

    waltky Well-Known Member

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    China gettin' to be scary...
    :omg:
    Security experts warn on China threat
    Wed, Oct 06, 2010 - IMBALANCE:Experts called for a regional security system and for Taiwan to align itself with the strategic interests of Japan and the US in the face of China’s rise
    See also:

    Congress liable to get tough with China after election...

    New US Congress unlikely to let up on China
    Sat, Oct 09, 2010 - A change of control of the US Congress after next month’s elections might take a harsh spotlight off China’s currency, but direct it to other Chinese trade practices, as well as security issues.
     
  17. reedak

    reedak Well-Known Member

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    If Taiwan wanted to align itself with the strategic interests of Japan and the US for whatever gains, it had missed the chances at least three times in the past.

    Firstly, during the Korean War of 1950-53 when it could try to attack the mainland’s southeastern flank while the Chinese army was busy helping the North Koreans to fight on the Korean peninsula.

    Secondly, during the Great Leap Forward of 1958-61, when the Chinese economy was in a mess.

    Thirdly during the Cultural Revolution of 1965-68 when there was great social upheaval in China.

    Now when modern China is at the peak of its power since the establishment of communist rule in 1947, it is quite suicidal for Taiwan to align itself with any foreign power. To do so, it will allow itself to become the main battlefield and theatre for any future war and conflict, its people will be caught in the crossfire and become cannon fodder for the interests of foreigners.

    It is not too bad for Taiwan to align itself with the US in any future war with other countries on the American continent. At least it can survive like a fox hiding behind a tiger, and may even be rewarded with a piece of rotten meat after the huge beast does all the fighting and killing.
     
  18. tksensei

    tksensei Banned

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    Taiwan has been only too eager to align with the US since 1949. Expecting Taiwan to "attack" the mainland during the Korean War is just beyond ridiculous for many reasons.
     
  19. tksensei

    tksensei Banned

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    Irrational nonsense is a waste of time.
     
  20. reedak

    reedak Well-Known Member

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    As usual, beating a retreat with lame excuse.
     
  21. tksensei

    tksensei Banned

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    Your not making any sense whatsoever is hardly my "lame excuse."
     
  22. RollingWave

    RollingWave New Member

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    FYI, Chang Kai Sheik did actively plan for an attack during the Korean war, the only problem was that from the US POV it was insane to escalate the war into WW3, though Douglas McArthur seem to have wanted to do that (which was why he was sacked), after that the US was the "restraint" on Chang to not attack, not the other way around.

    And again, in the upheavals in the 60s, there were realistic plans of attacking, the problem was again, the US didn't want Taiwan to attack (and also we couldn't pull it off without the US very actively helping anyway, China's society in the 60s was a mess but it's military was largely intact)

    From the American's geo-strategic POV, there's little good in helping Taiwan take out the PRC, especially not at the probable cost.
     
  23. waltky

    waltky Well-Known Member

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    Chinese Continue Protest Against Media Censorship...
    :cool:
    China Free Speech Protests Spread Online
    January 08, 2013 - Free-speech protesters clashed with Communist party supporters in southern China on Tuesday, as a local dispute about government censorship spilled over into a nationwide online protest.
     
  24. waltky

    waltky Well-Known Member

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    Chinese Continue Protest Against Media Censorship...
    :cool:
    China Free Speech Protests Spread Online
    January 08, 2013 - Free-speech protesters clashed with Communist party supporters in southern China on Tuesday, as a local dispute about government censorship spilled over into a nationwide online protest.
     
  25. waltky

    waltky Well-Known Member

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    Xi Jinping reiterated the importance of fighting corruption...
    :hmm:
    How serious is China on corruption?
    28 January 2013 - Even among China's jaded internet users, this was big news: Li Jianguo, a Communist official operating at the very top of the party, was under investigation for corruption.
     

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