Climate modelling wrong

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by cassandrabandra, Sep 20, 2012.

  1. cassandrabandra

    cassandrabandra New Member

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    thought that would make you look.

    the climate models on the melting of arctic sea ice have underestimated the rate at which the sea ice would melt.

    by a long shot.

    This is serious. the more the ice melts, the more the ocean will absorb heat.

    the more heat in the occean, the more impact on weather patterns in the northern hemisphere, the more likelihood of extreme weather events such as drought and floods.

    this year, grain crops in the US, Russia, Kazakhtan and Ukraine have been severely impacted by extreme weather events.

    this is going to continue.

    start looking forward to food inflation in a time when your economy is not stable.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-20/arctic-sea-ice-melts-to-lowest-level/4271530
     
  2. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The climate is not so simple. Who would have guessed.
     
  3. Colonel K

    Colonel K Well-Known Member

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    By and large the IPCC estimates, much trumpeted by deniers as scaremongering, have proven to be on the conservative side.
     
  4. cassandrabandra

    cassandrabandra New Member

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    yep.

    who would have guessed?

    http://www.livescience.com/23333-re...ice-levels-don-t-disprove-global-warming.html

    clearly not your denialist blogger.
     
  5. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Hmmmm and in all that complexity every year that we keep getting closer and closer to matching model to outcome all that is happening is that our worst fears are being vindicated
     
  6. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Hang on - if Arctic ice is getting less and ANTARCTIC ice is increasing - does that mean the world will overbalance and flip upside down?? Whooooops! Then we will no long be "Downunder" Lols!!!!

    But usual usual - denial denial denial cherry pick one fact crying from loneliness pad well with mangled statistics and supposition and wrap up with lots of pseudoscientific garbage
     
  7. Not Amused

    Not Amused New Member

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    The climate models weren't conservative, they were wrong.

    The correlation between man made CO2 and climate, which was speculative before, is far more uncertain.

    We can waste time, money, and lives by chasing CO2, the boogeyman of human progress. Or we can work on climate control using more productive methods.
     
  8. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Proof??? Or just more denial........................
     
  9. cassandrabandra

    cassandrabandra New Member

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    do you have some evidence for this claim?

    from a reliable source?
     
  10. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    You do realize that all the UN "science" has been discredited, don't you? Nobody believes them.

    As long as the only "remedy" is economic suicide, this goofy idea is going nowhere.
     
  11. Colonel K

    Colonel K Well-Known Member

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    Nobody takes that denier guff seriously, didn't you know?
     
  12. Windigo

    Windigo Banned

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    You mean other than the majority of people.
     
  13. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

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    What is also not mentioned is the fact that Antarctica is losing land ice and the air temperatures are getting warmer.
     
  14. Not Amused

    Not Amused New Member

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    The purpose of climate modelling is to predict the future. The climate scientist's model predicted a range of rising temperatures based on their assumptions on the impact of man made CO2. The rate of ice melt is well beyond their prediction. Was their guess as the impact of CO2 off another factor of 2 or 10?

    Or is it possible that modelling has limited application, and "climate" is orders of magnitude beyond that limit.

    I have done modelling in electronics, and know the level of detail required for a usable output.

    Can anyone describe modelling they have done that would indicate "climate" is modelable?
     
  15. Dingo44

    Dingo44 New Member

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    I love watching the AGW cult members blowing rainbows up each other's asses..

    :popcorn:
     
  16. cassandrabandra

    cassandrabandra New Member

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    hmmm ... more evidence of the correlation between climate change denial and conspiracy ideation?
     
  17. cassandrabandra

    cassandrabandra New Member

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    was the climate modelling a guess?

    If you think so, you have a strange understanding of what "guess" means.
     
  18. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Have you any evidence for this statement
     
  19. Not Amused

    Not Amused New Member

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    Is the climate model accurate?

    For models to work, the math needs to duplicate reality. That is difficult when we understand the physics, and when we can validate the model by iteration. Neither applies to climate.

    How do you explain the model inaccuracies?
     
  20. cassandrabandra

    cassandrabandra New Member

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    what scientists have found is that it is happening faster than the earlier models show, and they are studying why that is.

    as new information is factored in, the models need to be revised.

    scientists are always working to improve their understanding of an issue.
     
  21. Not Amused

    Not Amused New Member

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    I understand the process, I use it all the time, on much simpler products, that can be tested to identify errors. It still has taken decades to refine models enough that we can reduce (but not eliminate) prototyping.

    How long do you think it will take before climate modelling will be even moderately useful?
     
  22. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Each year that passes the affirmation for the models is greater - unfortunately so is the MEASURED change. If this process were going to take another 2,000 years everyone including the scientists would be saying "let's not panic and get precise models first" Unfortunately it seems we are seeing the process happening today and given that the biggest impact will be on the agricultural sector and that we have an expanding world population forgive us for being worried

    Especially when you look at how many civilisations have fallen in the past because man has altered the micro climate of the area
     
  23. cassandrabandra

    cassandrabandra New Member

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    it is already useful. There may be limitations to its accuracy due to a lack of information, but as more information is gathered, the accuracy will be improved.

    For example, the expedition that has been reporting on the sea ice this summer includes two scientists who are studying the impact of waves on further break up of the ice. its more complicated than that obviously, as wave action, combined with water temperatures, ice thickness, and a myriad of other factors need to be studied.

    but this will provide new data which can be factored in to future modelling.

    the models are still useful. they predict a trend, which is borne out by the evidence.
     
  24. Not Amused

    Not Amused New Member

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    It has been used to demonize CO2, because that "has" to be the cause. The lack of accuracy in the model puts that in question.

    True, but it will take hundreds (maybe thousands) of years of errors to tune the model.

    Until we can control wave action, weather, etc., it is a science project.

    They were? The current model predicted a trend or rising temperature. In reality, temperature was stable for years, then far exceeded expectations.
     
  25. cassandrabandra

    cassandrabandra New Member

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    the climate modelling doesn't determine that CO2 is the cause.

    It may take a long time to fine tune the models - they may never capture everything - but the trends they predict are being supported by evidence.

    I don't know where you get your information from. Perhaps you should not rely on denialist blogs as sources?
     

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