Climategate, the sequel: How we are STILL being tricked with flawed data on global warming

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by Josephwalker, Oct 1, 2018.

  1. dagosa

    dagosa Well-Known Member

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    Ha ha..strange because your the one who denies the authenticity of MIT and the like and instead choose one faculty member with MIT on his shirt. I’m the norm....
     
  2. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Show where I have ever denied MIT. Stop the lying. Lindzen was the head when he worked there over climate science.
     
  3. dagosa

    dagosa Well-Known Member

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    Me ? You’re the outlier
    .you can’t suport Lindzen without denying MIT.
    Read this. I know you’ll whine about politics or some inane reason to support one person over one the most gifted research facilities in the world, but really, MIT is just echoing everyother institute in the entire world. This isn’t one person vs MIT, it’s everyone else.

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2...mate-change/86K8ur31YIUbMO4SAI7U2N/story.html
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2018
  4. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What the hell do you want done? I sincerely believe my carbon foot print is much smaller than yours is. So why are you lecturing me?

    Also why did you hand me a pay to view site?
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2018
  5. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Here is an actual report from MIT on this topic.

    http://news.mit.edu/2018/how-earth-sheds-heat-space-0924



    New insights into the role of water vapor may help researchers predict how the planet will respond to warming.

    Jennifer Chu | MIT News Office
    September 24, 2018

    Press Inquiries
    Just as an oven gives off more heat to the surrounding kitchen as its internal temperature rises, the Earth sheds more heat into space as its surface warms up. Since the 1950s, scientists have observed a surprisingly straightforward, linear relationship between the Earth’s surface temperature and its outgoing heat.

    But the Earth is an incredibly messy system, with many complicated, interacting parts that can affect this process. Scientists have thus found it difficult to explain why this relationship between surface temperature and outgoing heat is so simple and linear. Finding an explanation could help climate scientists model the effects of climate change.

    Now scientists from MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS) have found the answer, along with a prediction for when this linear relationship will break down.

    They observed that Earth emits heat to space from the planet’s surface as well as from the atmosphere. As both heat up, say by the addition of carbon dioxide, the air holds more water vapor, which in turn acts to trap more heat in the atmosphere. This strengthening of Earth’s greenhouse effect is known as water vapor feedback. Crucially, the team found that the water vapor feedback is just sufficient to cancel out the rate at which the warmer atmosphere emits more heat into space.

    The overall change in Earth’s emitted heat thus only depends on the surface. In turn, the emission of heat from Earth’s surface to space is a simple function of temperature, leading to to the observed linear relationship.

    Their findings, which appear this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, may also help to explain how extreme, hothouse climates in Earth’s ancient past unfolded. The paper’s co-authors are EAPS postdoc Daniel Koll and Tim Cronin, the Kerr-McGee Career Development Assistant Professor in EAPS.
     
  6. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Another actual report from MIT.

    Projecting the impacts of climate change

    Joint Program researchers advocate for improved modeling approach.

    Mark Dwortzan | Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
    February 13, 2018

    Press Inquiries
    How might climate change affect the acidification of the world’s oceans or air quality in China and India in the coming decades, and what climate policies could be effective in minimizing such impacts? To answer such questions, decision makers routinely rely on science-based projections of physical and economic impacts of climate change on selected regions and economic sectors. But the projections they obtain may not be as reliable or useful as they appear: Today’s gold standard for climate impact assessments — model intercomparison projects (MIPs) — fall short in many ways.

    MIPs, which use detailed climate and impact models to assess environmental and economic effects of different climate-change scenarios, require international coordination among multiple research groups, and use a rigid modeling structure with a fixed set of climate-change scenarios. This highly dispersed, inflexible modeling approach makes it difficult to produce consistent and timely climate impact assessments under changing economic and environmental policies. In addition, MIPs focus on a single economic sector at a time and do not represent feedbacks among sectors, thus degrading their ability to produce accurate projections of climate impacts and meaningful comparisons of those impacts across multiple sectors.

    To overcome these drawbacks, researchers at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change propose an alternative method that only a handful of other groups are now pursuing: a self-consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts across multiple regions and sectors. They describe the Joint Program’s implementation of this method and provide illustrative examples in a new study published in Nature Communications.

    The Joint Program method is essentially a next-generation Integrated Assessment Model (IAM). IAMs typically come in two forms — either as simple climate models coupled with algorithms that translate increases in average global surface temperature into environmental and economic damages known as the social cost of carbon; or as more detailed Earth-system models with continually improving representation of physical impacts, coupled with economic models. The Joint Program IAM integrates a geospatially resolved physical representation of climate impacts into a coupled human and Earth system modeling framework.

    Developed over the past 26 years, the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework allows researchers to custom-design climate-change scenarios and assess climate impacts under those scenarios. For a given climate change scenario, they can use the framework to analyze the chain of physical changes at the regional and sectoral levels, and then estimate economic impacts at those levels.

    “The IGSM framework makes it possible to do multisectoral climate impact assessment within a single modeling framework within a single group,” says Erwan Monier, lead author of the study and a principal research scientist at the Joint Program. “It’s responsive to changes in environmental policies, internally consistent, and much more flexible than multimodel international exercises.”

    In the study, Monier and his co-authors applied the IGSM framework to assess climate impacts under different climate-change scenarios — "Paris Forever," a scenario in which Paris Agreement pledges are carried out through 2030, and then maintained at that level through 2100; and "2C," a scenario with a global carbon tax-driven emissions reduction policy designed to cap global warming at 2 degrees Celsius by 2100. The assessments show that "Paris Forever" would lead to a wide range of projected climate impacts around the world, evidenced by different levels of ocean acidification, air quality, water scarcity, and agricultural productivity in different regions. The "2C" scenario, however, would mitigate a substantial portion of these impacts. The researchers also explored additional scenarios developed by Shell International regarding the potential development of low-carbon energy technologies.

    “These examples showcase the responsiveness, consistency and multisectoral capability of our approach, which we believe represents a promising direction for the climate impact modeling community,” says Sergey Paltsev, a co-author of the study and deputy director of the MIT Joint Program, as well as a senior research scientist at the MIT Energy Initiative and the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. “Unlike traditional IAMs and MIPs, the improved coupled human-Earth system models like the IGSM framework enable researchers to design new emissions scenarios in a matter of months rather than years, avoid inconsistencies among different model components and scenarios, and analyze multiple sectors all at once.”
     
  7. dagosa

    dagosa Well-Known Member

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    Ha ha
    Oh. It’s a lecture that happens to be the truth. So yours is “bigger “ then mine. Let’s not be a drama queen. Just stick with the edvidence, MIT knows what they’re doing, Lindzen is a retiree out to make a few bucks from the fossil fuel industry trying to add cred to a dying idea. But, conspiracists will believe anything.
     
  8. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You would know more had you e mailed the man rather than assume.
     
  9. iamanonman

    iamanonman Well-Known Member

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    By using the equipartition theorem and Graham's Law. As a result of these high velocities and the typical densities of the molecules at sea level the mean free path is only 100 nanometers before an atmospheric molecule collides with another. Again, this is a good thing that the laws of physics work out the way they do. Otherwise CO2's "bulky" nature relative to molecular nitrogen oxygen would cause it to pool at the surface at a depth of about 5 meters causing us all to suffocate.
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2018
  10. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    A short lived 1000 mph. Frankly my last physics class was in 1958 and so was my last chemistry class.

    But, I did today look up Graham's law and also learned that the mph is a very short distance . The explanation i read said the time spent at that speed was extremely small.

    At least now I know where that number came from.
     
  11. dagosa

    dagosa Well-Known Member

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    Sure....and the man is a fraud.
     
  12. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I see, so you do not know him.
     
  13. dagosa

    dagosa Well-Known Member

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    I don’t have to. Trump is a fraud and I don’t know him. Both are steeped in lies.
     
  14. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You are the same guy blaming humans for climate. LOL
     
  15. dagosa

    dagosa Well-Known Member

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    When people have to lie and prevaricate, that’s when they become frauds. Lindzen fits the mold.
     
  16. dagosa

    dagosa Well-Known Member

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    Lindzen is a fraud.
    “Warming of any significance ceased about 20 years ago,” Lindzen claimed.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2018
  17. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    TDS in action. Too funny.
     
  18. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    LDS in action. Too funny.
     
  19. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The one human civilization grew up with. Duh. Why did you think it wasn't stupid to ask such a trivial question with such an obvious answer?

    Slowing down warming is primarily about benefiting humanity. That's how most people see it. But then, you may be one of those anti-human hyper-gaians who thinks it's heresy to interrupt what you call "natural cycles", no matter how many people it kills.
     
  20. drluggit

    drluggit Well-Known Member

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    So, if this is your standard, the evolution of our species has endured cycles back millions of years. As recently as 5000 years ago, during the age of ancient Egypt, the Sahara transitioned from grassland to desert. Thoughts ? It's a pretty straight forward question. Tell us what the average temp should be. is it, 46F? is it 48F? is it 60 F, or 75 F? Tell us what we're shooting for here.

    Next, by "stopping" the natural process, are you inferring that this is the right thing to do? Or just the convenient thing to do for you? As an ethics question, should we substitute your banalities and desires as godly direction here? Just wondering/
     
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  21. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There is no politically possible way to significantly reduce CO2 emissions. All that is accomplished is a slow down in economic growth and consequent reduced capability to adapt to any local problems with global warming which is net beneficial.

    The Canadians are enjoying these benefits now:


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-warm...nes-1543168786?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2
     
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  22. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    Throughout history warmer eras have been better eras.
     
  23. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Exactly.
     
  24. iamanonman

    iamanonman Well-Known Member

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    For corn and soy beans too?
     
  25. Chester_Murphy

    Chester_Murphy Well-Known Member Past Donor

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