COVID-19 outbreak all just storm in a teacup? Perhaps, possibly, maybe?

Discussion in 'Health Care' started by Bic_Cherry, Feb 15, 2020.

  1. Bic_Cherry

    Bic_Cherry Active Member

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    COVID-19 outbreak all just storm in a teacup? Perhaps, possibly, maybe?


    1500 deaths for China is just PEANUTS.

    Normal life expectancy at birth now is 76 years. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=CN
    But most of China population is now old age cos few kids and probably smoked etc heavily so if I use life expectancy at 70years is not unreasonable.

    1.3 billion people die over 70 years is at least 18.57 million people die in one year.

    Pneumonia is super common as cause of death, even LKY died of pneumonia because old and weak and cannot cough out the germs fast enough (so his lungs rotted from inside so mati because cannot breath) , same for all heart failure, stroke, liver, cancer etc patients, bed bound etc.

    So say at least 1/3 people, cause of death they write pneumonia cos old age and nobody will question even if just bring down from rural Chinese mountain almost dead and never see doctor before (relative says elderly person cough cough 1 week then now mati)...

    That should be at least 6 million annual deaths from ordinary pneumonia alone.

    On daily basis, will be 16,438+ people die daily from ordinary pneumonia alone.

    Since day 1 the Wuhan virus only killed 1500+ people (45 days). https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/e...s-past-1500-as-hubei-province-reports-139-new

    So average daily death rate of Wuhan virus being responsible for is 33.33 cases.

    This is only 0.2% of the China normal pneumonia rate. Even if under estimate by 10x, it is responsible for up to 2% of normal pneumonia death rate.

    Yes, we can race to find a vaccine, but will we be fast enough before the next mutation strikes or will be forever be chased and frightened by our own shadows?

    Maybe more humans may be saved if we spent our tax monies on alleviation of poverty, environmentalism rather than wearing face masks and restricting our movements and polluting the whole world with medical waste and greenhouse gases from all the medical disposables used in this hysteria.

    In the short term, yes we need the stats out like the mortality rate, but if the cause of death was the high prevalence of lifestyle disease like smoking, insufficient sleep and sedentary, high stress lifestyle, then we are probably just missing the woods for the trees by trying to stop the Wuhan virus (COVID-19) from spreading.


    Storm in a tea cup, perhaps, possibly, maybe. We shouldn't end up missing the woods for the trees, but we shouldn't be complacent in the early days either.
     
  2. Bic_Cherry

    Bic_Cherry Active Member

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    Blurfish (nice name u choose),
    Anyway, u self referred to serious shortage of test kits which is what is probably causing all the stress and hysteria about town.

    As u allude, even in the whole of Japan, the max COVID-19 diagnostic test daily capacity (by your account) for the WHOLE COUNTRY of population 127 million is just an absurdly insufficient 300/day. (probably is all used on the quarantine Diamond Princess 3700 passengers under lock down on board) .

    Even in China, they recently diagnosed 4823 new cases as reported on 14 February 2020, of which 3095 were clinical diagnosis, aka without any laboratory proof that COVID-19 genetic code was present (ostensibly because no test kits available):

    [​IMG]


    This means that all your mortality, ICU rates are probably super duper gross overestimations since u have zero clue as to the true number of asymptomatic infections since tests kits are grossly insufficient at this juncture; which may well ultimately be lower than H1N1 or any similar respiratory virus equivalent.

    Any new fangled virus (like hello kitty collectable , new movie blockbuster or iPhone release) is sure to Gardner high demand since everyone is naive to the new release, so just as movie blockbuster had high opening night attendance, many people will be infected in early days because nobody has natural antibodies from previous infection.

    So whilst we should be considerate to weaker members of society like those with longstanding diabetes with many complications (stroke, heart failure), by improving on our personal hygiene measures, since they will probably be sacrificed first since ICU and even general wards are already full of patients that no further admissions to hospital are possible, we must not be held hostage by such hysterics and still be able to function and safeguard our own health, like attending religious gatherings, exercising, work, attending school etc, rather than go into total lock down to prevent the inevitable and perhaps become patients ourselves.
     
  3. Bic_Cherry

    Bic_Cherry Active Member

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    Hahaha, not enough hospital beds, especially ICU/HD ward beds.

    Mostly are taken up by chronic sick from lifestyle disease like Khaw Boon Wan and his unhealthy lifestyle, so he suffers from osteoporosis and also previously needed a ($8) heart Bypass.

    All his followers of unhealthy lifestyle also fill up all the 12,000 restructured hospital beds and get themselves admitted multiple times.

    Even by present health minister account, they made the wrong public health policies, wrong healthcare investments so now the chronic disease burden in Singapore is sky high (world #2 in high income countries diabetes rate, World #1 in limb amputations rate) . No wonder Singaporeans are scared stiff by COVID-19 because they are in the high mortality risk group right from the start, at least the 25% with diabetes or pre-diabetes certainly are.

    Again, with your reference to mortality, ICU rates, how confident are u of ANY of these figures are not exaggerated by the false data of zero asymptomatic infected cases, because even Hubei (China) as at 13.2.2020 is still doing just clinical diagnosis on almost 2/3 of all its cases when the gold standard is genetic diagnosis and by Blurfish account, Japan with a population of 127 million is able to do just 300 virus diagnostic test/day? :

    Ref:
    Even in China, Hubei province 13 February data declaration to WHO, they diagnosed 4823 new cases that day, of which 3095 were clinical diagnosis, i.e. without any laboratory proof that COVID-19 genetic code was present (ostensibly because no test kits available for almost 2/3 of symptomatic patients):
    [​IMG]




    =================

    “If you look around, our investments in health promotion and diseases prevention, I think... it is actually significantly lower than the amount of money we spend on treating diseases,” he (Minister Gan Kim Yong) said.
    : Due to a lack of "holistic approach towards health promotion, taking into account how can we empower consumers so that they make the right choice" Empower consumers with holistic approach to healthcare: Gan Kim Yong To address the challenges of non-communicable diseases, Singapore needs to move upstream and find ways to keep the population healthy, said Health Minister Gan Kim Yong at the Ministerial Meeting on Universal Health Coverage ; TODAY (11 Feb 2015).http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/empower-consumers-holistic-approach-healthcare-gan-kim-yong

    -----------
    Singapore 'has 2nd-highest proportion of diabetics'
    [​IMG]https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/singapore-has-2nd-highest-proportion-of-diabetics
    -------------------

    More people are suffering multiple chronic diseases and consequently getting disabled at an earlier age nowadays than 8 years prior:
    [​IMG]https://www.straitstimes.com/singap...-adults-with-multiple-chronic-diseases-surges
     
  4. Bic_Cherry

    Bic_Cherry Active Member

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    [​IMG]


    No need to keep cherry picking numbers to throw at my face.

    I already said, even in China(Hubei province), they don't have enough COVID-19 tests kits/ capacity to test almost 2/3 of symptomatic cases:

    Even in China, Hubei province 13 February data declaration to WHO, they diagnosed 4823 new cases that day, of which 3095 were clinical diagnosis, i.e. without any laboratory proof that COVID-19 genetic code was present (ostensibly because no test kits available for almost 2/3 of symptomatic patients):
    [​IMG]

    This means that the asymptomatic infected cases are most likely totally unaccounted for, which probably/possibly is like the 90% other bottom part of the iceberg which u have willfully omitted accounting for (the 90% problem being proper population immunity against viruses and other chronic disease vz better nutrition and other lifestyle measures as well as better COVID-19 testing (efficacy, accuracy, reliability, accessibility etc) so we can be reasonably cautious about the new COVID-19 as compared to other pressing issues like global warming, wealth/ social inequality etc etc.

    That being the case, we must certainly also be cautious that all the fear mongering is not just the hysteria stemming from the emperor's new clothes phenomenon.



    [Youtube]EvFpS3DrFk8[/youtube]
     
  5. Robert Urbanek

    Robert Urbanek Active Member

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    We need to panic. I bet all those people in quarantine are getting free medical care, food and housing. That's socialism! The coronavirus is a global Marxist George Soros plot.
     
  6. Bic_Cherry

    Bic_Cherry Active Member

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    As mentioned, since u don't even have the tests kits available, u r a blind man groping in the dark like 6 blind men and elephant, arguing like a smartypants and denying his own blindness.

    Since u have zero available test kits to test anybody outside hospital, u can only factually make very limited statements like as hospital admin, make statements like '10% of my admitted patients have died' (hospital mortality rate of 10%) but u have no scientific right to use terms like general mortality rate outside of your institution since u have no clue whatsoever what the infected but asymptomatic on the streets is, the fact being that even within China hospitals, a very significant proportion of 30-66% are diagnosed WITHOUT the use of genetic based lab test due to shortage of test kits, unreliable test kits or their lack of sensitivity etc.
    So just admit that it's like 50-50 guess work and not be the boy who cries wolf and make exaggerated and hyperbolic claims that 10% of all infected will die when actually that is just the rate of death of those who admitted themselves to your particular regional hospital.

    Yes, the number of admissions may be alarming but this might also be red herring, especially when there are probably many old people clinging onto a thin thread of life because they are already riddled with chronic disease and any possible stressor, let alone the weather will tip them into the point of decompensation to morbidity or ICU care (influenza season will take between 30,000 to 60,000 lives in America every single year).

    Politicians also should be much more transparent and admit to a shortage of mask if misused by well people and reveal the case fatalities in much more detail, e.g. presence of chronic disease and last health screening result, BMI, IPPT fitness scores: there are tons of middle age persons with multiple chronic disease documented to have no past medical condition only for the simple reason that none were ever tested for and fitness wise, their basal level is the INABILITY to climb staircase or even chase after the bus, are grossly obese and snore like a jackhammer at night. That these middle aged patients were healthy adults from the start cannot be further from the truth.

    Those without chronic disease and who deem their own fitness to be sufficient will then have the confidence NOT to horde masks ar home, making them affordable for those sick and travelling to see a doctor to purchase and use.

    The reason why there are so many extremes in opinion is because the politicians have censored the data or released selectively or placed whatever spin when we know that such data cannot possibly be accurate nor true, like overall mortality rates when even by official admission, test kits are hard to come by and even hospitalised patients need to be priority cases to be tested themselves.

    Any official report out of China about the general infection mortality rate is thus exaggerated or concocted from Falsehood.

    Officials shouldn't be thrifty about revealing data and shouldn't be over zealous to present only the selected/ exaggerated snippets of data that sute their own commercial narratives or own political convenience.
     
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  7. Bic_Cherry

    Bic_Cherry Active Member

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    How can they test only approx 30 new people per day when each day should be at least upwards 3000 people reporting for Upper respiratory track infections since a few years ago at just polyclinics? Even if test just 1% of polyclinic cases of flu, would be at least 30 cases already. And they also need to test even more normal people walking down Orchard road or HDB market etc to do a general surveillance of prevalence and spot asymptomatic cases.

    More people need to be tested to spot new clusters early and to understand the true prevalence of this virus in community.


    [​IMG]
     

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