Covid19 Math Course, Chapter 2; Hospitalizations

CHAPTER 1; 2.2 million would have died "If we did nothing"

During the presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed to have saved 2.2 million lives from COVID-19,

And,

"according to the most accurate/comprehensive study'', Trump said.

In other words; "We've done a very good job considering the fact 2.2 million would have died if my Administration did nothing.





CHAPTER TWO: Hospitalizations

1. If 2.2 million would have died, how many would have been hospitalized?

Note: An easy question

2. Over a 6 month period, what would have been the hospitalization's peak level?

Note; A hard question.......hospitalizations currently at 102,000

Please submit your answers by 5 pm, Friday Dec 11th.

______________

 

Answer to question # 1

Cumulative hospitalizations; 589,486
Cumulative deaths; 290,880
Cumulative deaths if we did nothing; 2.2 million

Simple math

Cumulative hospitalizations if we did nothing; 4.46 million

HOWEVER;

Question # 2; Over a 6 month period, what would have been the hospitalization's peak level?

Note; A hard question.......hospitalizations currently at 102,000


???????????????????????????????????????????????

 

Assuming the original projection was correct.
The original was for peak deaths of 3.5k per day.
Based on the summer rates, 1.83% of the people hospitalized died.
So a little over 190,000.

 

Answer to question # 2



At its peak, ALL staffed hospital beds in the U.S. would be occupied by Covid19 patients, thus, approx. 900,000 beds.

In addition, approx. 200,000 patients would require a ventilator, and we would need an additional 200,000 ICU's.

 

Seems to high to me. Can you show your work?