Democrats 2020: 50 states, 50 candidates

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Phil, Nov 3, 2018.

  1. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Bayh is owned by big insurance, and is the worst kind of swamp creature. His dad should be disgusted by Evan's sell-out. Democrats certainly are.

    As it is, the Democrats have an embarrassment of riches running, most of who can thrash Trump.

    Now, who should announce he's not running? Biden. He's like your embarrassing uncle. He's one of the few who could lose to Trump.

    Sanders will probably run, but with so many other strong liberals in the race, he won't go far.

    And no Democrats think Clinton is going to run, so none are holding back on that account.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2019
  2. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Too Many Democratic Candidates
    will dilute the $ $ $
    and rip the party apart.

    They dearly need a "smoke filled room"
    party meeting / caucus to agree to reduce the number of
    candidates to 4 and agree on "the message"
    beyond defeating Trump.


    Moi :oldman:






    :flagcanada: FREE Meng Wanzhou!
    [​IMG]
     
  3. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Yup.

    Biden, Beto, Bernie, and Bloomberg should be able to settle things.

    The Killer Bees.

    Then decide on Biden/Harris and call it good.
     
  4. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Biden is a loser who could never inspire the heartland red States
    to become Blue. If Hillary had just won one heartland, rust belt State.
    Biden can't either.

    Nor Beto, Bloomberg.
    Possibly Sanders. If not aged out.
    Sanders inspired multi cultural, multi racial rallies. Not them and those.


    And Harris as VP would be a mistake of Palin Proportions!


    Moi :oldman:






    :flagcanada: FREE Meng Wanzhou!
    [​IMG]
     
  5. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Everybody has their own opinions.

    Still, way too early.

    Trump was barely on the radar at this point in 2016.

    Anything (or anybody) is possible.

    Can't rule anything (or anybody) in or out.

    Way too early.

    That said, Biden CAN hold the Clinton 2016 States and win back MI, WI, and PA.

    And Harris is perfectly situated for VP.
     
  6. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Not! ;)
     
  7. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    It's too early to predict her percentage in the Iowa caucus (except in a 3-way race against the other 2 official candidates Delaney and Castro
    Harris 48
    Delaney 21
    Castro 21
    That's based on the theory that Hillary got every possible vote any female could get in that state. Bernie's support represented not a love of socialism but a cry for a good real Democratic man to join the race, and most Bernie voters now wish they'd voted for O'Malley to at least let other states have a chance for a real nice Democrat.
    With those 3 in New Hampshire Delaney should win. He alone represents the east coast. They never choose the same winner as Iowa and he'll probably try harder there than Iowa no matter who his rivals are.
    In South Carolina the big question is whether black voters will accept her as black. Her background has nothing in common with those whose ancestors were slaves for 200 years then oppressed for 150 years. Nor can she relate to the black urban dwellers of the northeast. Castro has no natural pull for blacks and might not try.
    The south unites behind the winner of its first primary, so if Delaney limps to victory there he can count on 10 more southern victories and concentrate on the northeast the rest of the way.
     
  8. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    I've heard that Sherrod Brown of Ohio is about to announce.
    If you know him, tell him that if he announces soon enough (fourth official candidate) I might say something about him that I won't be able to say if he's the fifth to announce.

    In passing I heard that Andrew Cuomo of New York and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania are not planning to run.
    I wanted Casey in the race if only to define the size of the right wing of the Democratic Party (5, 10, 15%). Now we need Joe Manchin in the race to do that.
    Though I want all 50 states represented we can live without a Pennsylvanian. That state, like Maryland and Delaware, has no personality, nothing that carries over to other states, nothing unique.
    A Pennsylvanian is just a person who lives in Pennsylvania.

    As to Cuomo and others like him:
    Not everyone is fit for the Presidency. If you're not you shouldn't even let people talk about it.
    No one should run for President before he's ripe. That might be at 55, 60, 65. Bernie was pushing it at 75.
    However, if Cuomo and others feel ripe, skip this election, Trump wins a second term, then they suddenly jump in for the vacancy in 2024...
    Those people don't deserve a single vote. They're the worst kind of cowards.
    This is the election the Democrats need to win.
     
  9. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    One recent day I heard in passing that some Mayor somewhere was not going to run for President.
    My thought was that it will get annoying if every 2-bit Mayor who announces he's not running gets mentioned.
    I didn't know he's a 4-bit Mayor (Indianapolis) and was already in the race. No one covered the announcement he was running, knowing he had no chance.
    Because they ignored him, even when listing hopeless cases like Delaney and Gabbard, he realized he really has no chance.
    I won't bother you with his name.
    That leaves Indiana open for their best prospect Evan Bayh. He might do as well as his father-third in New Hampshire.
    Apparently there are 6 more announced candidates you've never heard of, all less qualified that the Mayor of Indianapolis.
    One of them is from England, hoping the Constitution will change this year to make his election legal.
    I need to mention this now because yesterday we had an announcement from someone who might win and is the best choice from his state: Cory Booker of New Jersey.

    New Jersey: Cory Booker

    Everyone has fallen in love with Cory Booker. The Democrats see him as their black knight in shining armor. He really is just another pretty face. In that blue state winning the next election is too easy but can he win the hearts of Americans coast to coast? 2020 is the year to find out.

    Booker turns 50 April 27, sharing a birth date with Ulysses S. Grant. Grant was the third worst President so I guarantee Booker will be better.
    That means he was born in a year I hate but everyone loves.
    When they make a movie about life in the 60s they pick that year. When they write a song about a rock band they pick that year. When they tell a true story about the Moon landing it has to be that year. When someone travels back in time he goes to that year.
    I HATE THAT YEAR. Therefore I have to expect a President born that year eventually to torment me more.
    Booker's been in the Senate since 2013, so he's more qualified than the other announced candidates. Even before that the media was working to make him famous nationwide.
    Can anyone tell me anything about a Mayor of Newark, New Jersey before Booker, even the founder of the town?

    If the race stays as is with no new announcements Booker will surely win.
    I come to this assessment by a few methods.
    The easiest to explain is one-on-one versus the other announced candidates.
    Booker obliterates Tulsi Gabbard so thoroughly she'll probably drop out soon.No one considers her a threat to the nomination. Her only hope was to remain the only ethnic and somehow make minorities of all stripes feel like she's one of them. She isn't and never will be.
    I found out the first debate is June and she might not be invited.

    Booker has every advantage over Kamala Harris. Experience as Mayor is executive level. 8 years in the Senate beats 4.
    Most importantly, he's a real African-American with the deep roots in slavery. He has white ancestors through slaveowners, a more recent white doctor through fornication, Native American blood through ancestors with known names and successful black parents.
    His weak point is that the family was northern black, allowed to vote and go to adequate schools a generation before the south, but he still could reach southern blacks more easily than she.
    I(f she's going to beat him it has to be with a cause, style or substance. If she picks urban renewal, he beats her there.
    He's the antidote to Harris on every point.

    As long as John Delaney is the only white man in the race he can count on about 20% nationwide.
    If Booker can monopolize the black vote he nullifies that.
    Booker's 8 years in the Senate beat 6 in the House and Delaney is far behind in name recognition. Delaney needs a fast start, wins in Iowa and/or New Hampshire plus a long-term plan. Generally candidates like him have no long-term plan, so winning one of the first 2 just extends their misery.
    Booker has a natural advantage in northern states. If ha can add the southern black vote that leaves Delaney the heartland caucus states.
    If Booker has a good plan for caucus states those too are in doubt.

    The most interesting battle could be Booker versus Castro.
    As Mayor of San Antonio Castro is at a disadvantage. He might have gotten as little attention as the Mayor of Indianapolis except that he was HUD Secretary for Obama.
    That probably gives him the best past political ranking of any Mayor now in office, enough to be mentioned, though he is still not regarded as a major candidate.
    Suppose Booker has a plan for US cities. He should if he has any plans for anything.
    In a debate or series of sound bites these 2 can feud the whole campaign.
    Castro will have no choice but to defend his work as HUD Secretary and the Obama administration in general as making US cities a paradise.
    My city didn't improve much but if you added up all the cities in the US and divided by population, would you not find that most city-dwellers in 2016 were happier, richer, safer, healthier and smarter than those living in the same city in 2008?
    Obama had the Mi-touch. Everything he touched did not turn to gold but upgraded in net worth by about 40%.
    If Democrats believe that's true and helped them in some way it would be treason to vote against Castro. Surely 8 more years like that will give cities the DA, an additional 40% improvement.
    Suppose Booker doesn't think cities improved 40% under Obama and says so.
    That would make him a heretic in many minds.
    When the GOP was debating almost everyone could go along with the premise that the W administration was flawed. The few who defended it could do so only in meek, polite terms. The guy who attacked him won the race.
    Will Booker dare to point out the flaws in the Obama administration, openly attacking his representative in the race?
    If he does, the Booker versus Castro votes will represent the consensus of what real Democrats thought about those 8 almost half-golden years.
     
  10. Sahba*

    Sahba* Well-Known Member

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    Sounds good, however, the implicit caveat should be recognized that anyone reaching the threshold for candidacy (Article II, section 1) is able to & should run if they feel compelled to do so.
    https://www.jstor.org/stable/2148937?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

    Lol, do you think Trump would have ever had a snowballs chance in hell, within NY, to reach the level of candidacy for dog catcher - under your proposed system... As it turns out, he may go down in history as having the most impactful & consequential presidency of many of our lifetimes (regardless of what 'side' one is on).
     
  11. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    If I'd made a list of 50 Republicans in 2014 I would have picked Peter King for New York.
     
  12. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    It appears Elizabeth Warren is running for President despite new evidence of a lying hypocrisy.
    Someone excused that to youth but she was 37.

    The one good thing about this announcement is it means Hillary will not join the race.
    I've concluded that Tom Harkin in 1992 was not trying to win, just to win Iowa so no candidate would win both New Hampshire and Iowa, keeping hope alive for Bill Clinton.
    In 2016 Warren might have taken that role for Hillary, but they realized she'd still lose to Bernie in New Hampshire and if Warren was second there Hillary might have to drop out.
    So she represents the old bitch establishment wing of the party.
    I see no chance for Warren to win the nomination.

    Considering only the 6 announced candidates I could easily see Warren finishing last in Iowa.
    First of all, she will be expected to win New Hampshire, so anyone who needs good numbers in one of the first 2 states just to get to Nevada will concentrate on Iowa and neglect New Hampshire until Iowa is over.
    At least one of them might drop out then, possibly 2 because it's hard to start so badly then rebound. None of these candidates have obvious southern strength. Only that can keep someone going with any real chance of a comeback.
    Warren's victory in New Hampshire is far from certain and she'll have to work hard there to secure it, so even she might not give Iowa the standard attention.
    Even if she does, she'll gain few votes from warmth of her personality. Her best weapon will be commercials and I doubt she'll tailor any of them to subjects Iowans care about.
    To get her to last means falling behind the longshots there.
    That would be Tulsi Gabbard. I guarantee any Iowan who shakes hands with both Warren and Gabbard will like Gabbard better.
    Her rival for last might be Julian Castro. I have no idea what method he'll use in Iowa or if he'll try hard, saving his strength for Nevada. Still a handsome young man will get votes an old bitch can't reach.

    The most important reason Warren will do badly in Iowa may be the reason Hillary struggled there and in so many caucus states.
    Primaries have secret ballots. In caucuses people go to the corners representing one candidate or the other. In 2016 people could see their friends and neighbors making a deal with the Devil (Hillary), so I think a lot of them yielded to peer pressure and went to the Bernie side.
    In this case the devil is not obvious, but peer pressure remains, especially among the women.
    I have a feeling that with 2 or 3 women on the ballot the vote swing in any given room might quickly change from 24-16 to 32-8.
    So if Harris, for instance, was noticeably ahead of Warren in any precinct, the gap may end up 3-1.
    Of course Warren could win some precincts that way too. However I suspect she'll visit only the cities, arranging big rallies-including paid guests-and let others take the boondocks. So Harris will dominate most precincts.
    Of course men vote too, but I can't picture too many men picking Warren over Harris.
    Again I think 48% is the limit for any woman and if the trio of females split that it could be 38-6-4 and Warren might be the 4.
    The man most likely to dominate Iowa is Delaney, but could he hammer even Castro to 3%. I doubt it.


    [​IMG]
     
  13. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    With Klobuchar in the race there is no reason for anyone to vote for Warren.

    As the nearest to Iowa Klobuchar is in an excellent position to win the state, or at least be tops among the females.
    With the present lineup of 7 and 25% a possible victory margin she can wipe 2 of these women off the map immediately.
    Minnesotans do well in New Hampshire and have much in common.
    Warren may take the Boston suburbs, but if any woman wins the north, it will be Klobuchar.

    Klobuchar's first battle is to convince the party that anyone from what they consider the most loyal state in the union is worth considering.
    Since they're confident of Minnesota's Electoral Votes they'll not soon consider a Minnesotan for Vice President despite its reputation. Since they consider her Senate wins automatic, she can't say she won against a strong GOP presence.
    Neither can Booker, Gabbard, Harris or Delaney.
    Warren at least unseated a Republican Senator, but in a state so blue he won because his opponent didn't try.

    Bernie and Warren joined the Senate the same day. That makes them comrades in a way others can not become.
    His victory in the Minnesota primary in 2016 kept him in the race. It may have been kind words from Klobuchar that put him over the top there. Of course he swept most of the northwest thereafter including Wisconsin to the east.
    If he endorses her, she gets the knowledge of the caucus system and might tally up over 20 states.
    In this field I could see her getting 40% of the overall vote, eliminating Gabbard in Iowa, Warren after South Carolina and Harris in mid-March.
    If Booker is the last man standing it could be much like 2008.
    If Delaney lingers she can't fail to take the most states as the 2 men trip over each other.
     
  14. 61falcon

    61falcon Well-Known Member

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    Spooky Next to the ***** grabber Dirty Donald,Joe Biden is a rookie.
     
  15. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    It appears Bernie Sanders joined the race this morning. That makes 8 candidates announced, almost enough, though I want 50.
    Of course he was not my pick to represent Vermont but the other guy isn't that great, just young enough to survive a term.
    I spent hours on Facebook today slowly exploring what might happen.
    With this lineup I have him winning both Iowa and New Hampshire with one third fewer votes than he got in 2016.
    Overall if he goes the distance I expect him to get half his 2016 total, but that could still yield over 20 victories, up to 5 on super Tuesday alone.
    I focused on a scenario in which Harris becomes the last rival and she wins by getting all the superdelegates plus the delegates of everyone else.
    Then I took what I find more likely: Klobuchar, Booker and Bernie as the last 3 standing and Bernie getting more total votes.
    He still loses.

    No one will have 50% or even the 43% plus superdelegates needed to win.
    Can Klobuchar get the delegates from all rivals other than Bernie and Booker?
    She can. So can Booker if he is clearly ahead of her.
    No one from below will yield their delegates to Bernie.
    For him, as in 2016, not only is 20% zero, but 51% is 44%.
    He needs 57% to win the nomination, while almost anyone else clinches at 44%.
     
  16. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    The latest announcement is Governor Jay Inslee of Washington state.
    Senator Patty Murray was my choice for that state. That's because unlike Inslee-one year older than she-she doesn't have a state to run. With Democrats still in the minority in the Senate she doesn't even have a committee to run.
    With 14 years in the House and 6 years and counting as Governor Inslee, 69 by the election, is the third oldest and most qualified of the 9. Therefore he could win the nomination or drop out after Iowa.
    If he starts winning a lot of states it will mean that a faction of the Democratic Party rarely mentioned and hard to quantify are voting for him: people who want the best possible President.
    With the obsession of nominating people from new categories Democrats have rarely thought about who should win lately, just happy to elect the first something. First President from Washington state, the Pacific northwest, the northwest should be enough.
    The only Washingtonian to make a serious bid for the White House was Democrat Scoop Jackson in 72 and 76. Jackson was a different type of Democrat, always reminding people that Russians-not just Soviets but Russians-are different than us. It will be interesting to see if Inslee, in his 20s when Jackson died, reveals fond memories of him. That would be an effort to reach the remaining conservatives in the party, a niche sufficient to keep him in the race through super Tuesday.
    The first likely result is that everyone ignores Delaney. They can't ignore Inslee. When Delaney is eliminated those wishing to vote for a white Gentile man will have a good one and be joined by those looking for the best candidate.
    Everyone agrees that Californians are weird, but we're divided on whether those from Washington and Oregon are also weird. Still there is a west coast perspective on things and Inslee may be able to present it more credibly than Harris, taking votes from her. If she drops out early he and Bernie will fight over California on super Tuesday. Finishing second behind Bernie will be declared a victory. If she remains he could take the win there and knock her out, looking very strong indeed.
    Since Bernie won Washington, Oregon, Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado and other states he now has a rival there. Should Inslee take some of those states he'll be the giant killer even if he remains third or fourth in the race overall.
    The south is still up for grabs and a white male Gentile has as good a head start as anyone, so Inslee could be a prohibitive frontrunner in March and battle for northern cities too.
    On the other hand, as a sitting Governor he has the least time to campaign, needs to work sometimes, might face emergencies others never think about. Coming from the west coast to New Hampshire, South Carolina, even Iowa is a long trip that could wear down an old man.
    The biggest cause of early exits is lack of planning. Often a person who does not fare well in Iowa stops immediately even though New Hampshire looked promising because he has minimal support on the ground. Often someone who does well in Iowa gets nowhere in New Hampshire because he had only one week.
    In his case, one vote behind Delaney in Iowa ends the race, less than 15% average Iowa and New Hampshire ends the race, no wins on super Tuesday ends the race.
    Iowa is his best chance of the first 4, but he has to outflank Harris, Klobuchar and Delaney, keeping them behind him everywhere (except Harris in Nevada) then get all their support as they exit.
     
  17. Sahba*

    Sahba* Well-Known Member

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    My long time - top pick for SCJOTUS!
     
  18. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    John Hickenlooper of Colorado becomes the tenth candidate worth mentioning to join the race. I picked Diana DeGette for that state thinking Hickenlooper, a few years older was ready to retire after 8 good years as Governor. Also that name is a liability.

    Hickenlooper has many strengths.
    First of all, 8 of the other 9 candidates come from blue states. Castro is from a red state but he's Mayor of a blue city.
    Hickenlooper comes from a swing state and can therefore claim that he alone has repeatedly won elections by getting votes from non-Democrats.
    Colorado is a swing state that swung for the Democratic nominee for President the last 3 times, mostly because of a big Democratic vote in Denver. Since he was Mayor of Denver 2004-2010 and Governor 2011-19 Hickenlooper can take credit for that convincingly.



    At 68 with 2 full terms behind him, he has the best set of credentials in the race so far.
    He's a geologist, and had a long business career before going into politics, a combined background few can boast.
    He's the fourth oldest in the race, more likely to be alive in 8 years than the older 3.



    As a geologist he can tell us the consequences of fracking, and predict exactly where we might find new wells of oil, possibly freeing us at last from dependence on the Arabs. He can tell us the history of climate change, starting with his creation myth of how the Earth got warm enough to create life and sometimes purge itself of useless species, not to mention how soon we can expect its most useless species-humans-to perish.



    Of course his state legalized marijuana a few years ago. Advocating that nationwide is worth some votes. He doesn't need many to rise through the pack.
    In 2016 a difference of 2% separated fifth from ninth in Iowa.




    Of course he can boast about the great economy in his state and pretend he was responsible.



    Hickenlooper has a huge advantage by being retired. With no job at all he can hang out for weeks on end in Iowa and New Hampshire. Only Delaney has that much free time.



    The name Hickenlooper is his biggest obstacle, however it's easier to remember than Harris or Warren. The biggest problem with the name is that he has no hope for VP. A 68-year-old former Governor of a western swing state is the ideal choice for VP but the name has to balance the Presidential nominee.
    He has to win.



    There is also a weakness in all these cases for him.
    If someone looks they'll see was fell short of 50% in both Governor elections. He barely got non-Democrats.



    If he makes a big deal of the economy some might point out that global warming is so far helping his tourism industry. There isn't enough snow in the Adirondacks but there's still enough in the Rockies.
    Though he can also claim his state will suffer for the moment climate change is on his side.



    Klobuchar could eliminate Warren.
    Inslee could decimate Delaney.
    The only likely victim of Hickenlooper is also Delaney.
    If all 3 have strength it could resemble the situation in 2008 with Edwards, Biden and Dodd. They could combine for up to 45% of the vote in Iowa but finish third, fourth and fifth.
    The bottom man might drop out, but then the remaining 2 get a combined 25% in New Hampshire, still third and fourth. They might battle for third again in Nevada.
    In all cases, South Carolina is the key. How will any of those 3 woo the south. There's at least 20% in all states with the right message.



    Colorado may join super Tuesday, making him the 6th candidate of the 10 defending his home state that day.



    So Hickenlooper has an opening for one super Tuesday victory if he can last that long. Since delegates are proportional everywhere you just need some credibility past that point to keep pace.
    It becomes a battle of attrition. As one of the older candidates he might not have the enthusiasm unless he's first, but with at least one victory his endorsement will be valuable.



    This announcement opens up a conspiracy theory.
    Bernie won Colorado (Hickenlooper), Minnesota (Klobuchar), Washington state (Inslee) and Hawaii (Gabbard).
    Is it possible that at least one, maybe all 4 of those longshots are in it not to win the race but to peel support from Bernie?
    He won 23 states in 2016. Subtract those and he's down to 19. The guy who wins 18 will be in command at the end of the primaries.
     
  19. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    With Harris, Warren, and Beto (assuming he runs) in the race--Bernie is already in position to have a ton of "Progressive" votes peeled from his hide.

    As far as Hickenlooper?

    Yet another entry into the race of a Non-Factor (who will get lost in the ether).
     
  20. TrackerSam

    TrackerSam Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Who has the other 7 states? Obama said there were 57 states.
     
  21. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Washington, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, Virgin Islands and Democrats abroad.
     
  22. Spooky

    Spooky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Territories don't get to vote for president.

    lol
     
  23. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    They do have primaries and that he tripped over:
    Heinz 57, 56 primaries, 52 cards in a deck, 51 billion: net worth of Warren Buffett, 50 states, 49 states won by Nixon and Reagan, 48 contiguous states, 47%: goal for percentage of people on government assistance, 46 states won by FDR, 45 states won by LBJ. You need cheat notes.
     
  24. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    I'm glad someone agrees about Bernie.
    My theory is that half his 2016 votes were anti-Hillary versus pro-Bernie. So I expect about half this time overall.
    Of that 21% how many are Bernie fanatics and how many are just socialists?
    Suppose he gets 10% and 3 rivals take the remaining 11% socialist votes. Those 3 all drop out by super Tuesday and Bernie takes 21% thereafter, possibly winning about 7 states.
    Can any of the other socialists penetrate the mainstream?
     
  25. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    The announced official qualified candidates has reached 11.
    The last 5 candidates to announce all have viability. They joined the race with some advantage over those who were in ahead of them.
    The new guy starts in tenth place in credentials.

    His name is Robert Francis O'Rourke.
    Instead of calling himself Robert, Robbie, Rob, Bob, Francis or Frank he chose Beto, hoping Hispanics will think he's one of them and vote for him.
    In fact, O'Rourke's whole campaign will depend heavily on Democrats being very dumb.
    He lost to Ted Cruz. Cruz lost to Trump. All you need is grade 7 algebra to know he has no chance in the general election.
    However since people have mentioned his name a lot he's hoping they'll think he's a Hispanic giant-killer who beat Cruz in a big state and the best shot to beat the guy Trump beat.

    I'll start with platform this time.
    Whatever he said to get over 40% of the Senate vote in Texas last year won't play in the Democratic race.
    He can take very different positions, proving his hypocrisy, and hope no one cares or use the same platform and turn off most of the Democratic voters.
    Mostly, he'll hope no one pays attention to anything but his face.
    "I'm handsome, elect me" works in a lot of places.

    If he does seriously project the right wing of the Democratic Party-and no better candidate from that side joins the race-he could monopolize the 5% left on the right and work towards the center.
    The center has the thinkers and if he can get them thinking-they should pick someone else.

    Delaney, O'Rourke, Castro, Booker. Sanders, Hickenlooper. Inslee:
    Those are the credentials of the men bottom to top.
    The best qualified candidate never wins.
    In 2008 it was Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Gravel, Hillary, Edwards, Obama and Kucinich.
    The ranking in votes was almost reverse.
    That's what O'Rourke is counting on.

    O'Rourke does know how to speak to farmers, better perhaps than anyone in the race.
    His message might play in Iowa.
    His best strategy for New Hampshire will be to play up his Irish roots.
    In Nevada he should get nowhere, but if anyone is still thinking about him then it means he crushed Castro. He could be first among the white Gentile men after 3 races, even without getting near first place. He only has to outlast Delaney, Hickenlooper and Inslee, with Castro falling in the process, to be the only option for the KKK in South Carolina.
    It's a terrible way to win, but it could take the state as long as he doesn't have to share those votes with another white Gentile man.
    With a victory in South Carolina and Castro gone, he then tries to defend Texas on super Tuesday.

    While Castro might lose Texas even if he won Nevada and had strength everywhere, O'Rourke can expect an easy win there if he's still viable.
    The question is will he be able to win anything else while defending Texas that day.
    A single win, if someone like Booker takes 5 states that day, might leave him limping along in fourth place thereafter.
    That's when his ability to raise money might just outlast the competition and make him the winner.
    Of course Bernie should have at least 6 wins after super Tuesday. He could be as high as 10 of 16.
    If Bernie does that well second place is still considered first.
    As in every scenario I've looked at Harris, Booker, one of the white men and Bernie look like the final 4.

    Suppose O-Rourke wins the south on the hate vote. That's 11 wins in March, all below 40% except Texas.
    Bernie still dominates the west, especially caucus states.
    If Harris and Booker are both still alive they may divide the industrial states up north. They may have to unite to beat him.
    Could Harris be wooed to join Beto, eliminate Booker and edge out Bernie at the convention.

    I don't think the man has any type of message for the northern cities.
    It's not worth trying for them.

    O'Rourke joins the list of people who can't win an election in their home state, so they run for President instead.
    That includes Rick Santorum and Carly Fiorina. It's also bad etiquette to run against someone from your own state. Only Rick Perry and Trump did that.

    The fact is he spent 6 years in the House of Representatives from the 16th district, the western corner.
    He lost to Cruz by a margin no one could dispute despite raising a fortune, mainly from out of state money.
    Since he has no chance to get his old seat back now that he's out of Congress, can't beat John Cornyn in 2020, can't beat Greg Abbott for Governor and can't even think about beating Cruz someday, he mostly needs to spend all that money left over.
    That's the same situation as Elizabeth Warren since she certainly won't want another Senate term at age 75.

    I was hoping the next candidates would join upping the qualifications of candidates so pathetic longshots would stop joining.
    Inslee and Hickenlooper upgraded the experience level almost as high as it can get.
    This guy matches the trio near the bottom.
     

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