Does anyone still believe Natural Herd Immunity has been the right solution since da pandemic began?

In another thread, a poster quoted the following;

“Everything we have done to control the virus has proven to be ineffective”

Tread title; New “mu” Covid19 Variant...

 

I am that poster. My point was that what we have been doing doesn't work. If there is nothing else we can do that may be an improvement, then herd immunity will occur when virtually everybody has been infected. The question is what will happen with that herd immunity. Some viruses calm down somewhat and become seasonal visitors. With others they never get under control. Each year we have vaccinations for last year's strain of the flu. There is no vaccine for the common cold. We haven't seen cases of small pox or polio for a long time so sometimes a virus does come under control.

We aren't in charge of this pandemic. Covid is in charge. Infections were higher when delta arrived than when the vaccines arrived. We need to stop messing with peoples' lives for something we can't control and manage our response to the virus more sensibly. Not only should medical science lead the charge but so should common sense.

 

I have never believed that pushing for natural herd immunity (that is, implementing no epidemiological containment measures so that more people got infected faster in order to control the virus this way) was the way to go. First, because it would balloon the number of casualties, and given the likelihood that we'd end up developing vaccines, those would have been preventable deaths that wouldn't need to happen. Second, given the virology aspects of this virus (hey, it's a coronavirus; they are tricky), I always anticipated that herd immunity wouldn't be possible anyway, given the likelihood of the emergence of resistant variants able to re-infect, sooner or later. Now we know that the Delta and the Gamma are able to re-infect people who had the disease before, so this completely blows herd immunity out of the water.

"Everything we have done to control the virus has proven to be ineffective" - not at all. We didn't stop the virus; no country did; it's a virus. Viruses do what viruses do. But without any control measure, it's absolutely certain that we'd have lost even more people. So it's not that the measures were ineffective. It's that they were only partially effective, as predicted, but not fully useless. We gained some time, the vaccines did get made and distributed, and we saved many lives this way. Each saved life is to be celebrated. Calling it all ineffective is extremely short-sighed. People see vaccinated people getting breakthrough infections... but they are still rare as compared to the full number of vaccinated people, and these breakthrough infections are mostly milder. So, no, we do have some fairly efficient control measures. They are not perfect but they are not useless.

New "Mu" Covid19 variant: The CDC has not yet called it a variant of concern (the WHO has), merely a variant of interest, because here in the United States Mu doesn't seem to be able to get a foothold due to competition with the much more infectious Delta. So, last I checked, Mu accounted for only 0.1% of new infections in the United States and its numbers were dropping rather than rising. So I don't see why the existence of the Mu variant means that all control measures are ineffective. Sure, maybe Mu will grow more as Delta fades and we'll see another wave... but this hasn't happened yet, and may never happen.

 

Here’s the reason why I asked said question, mainly to the Natural herd Immunity believers;

Q; Would you also naturally immunize Nursing Homes/LTF Residents, and People with pre-existing conditions, or HIDE/ISOLATE THEM until we’ve achieved a high percentage of immunity?

 

Yes I think we should immunize everyone that can tolerate the vaccines. They have a therapeutic benefit. While infections have increased since delta arrived, death rates have declined. I'm not against vaccination. I'm against government mandating things that are proven not to work. Vaccines, at least for now, do work.

 

It's true with climate change as well. The Sun and Earth are in charge of when and how the climate changes. But, our politicians think they can control the climate. So, why is it that we would think anything different when it comes to a virus. Some people think a virus is bigger than a bacteria and so masks should work when the COVID19 virus is so small it's about the ratio of the size of the earth to the sun. It goes right through the cloth masks everyone is walking around with. What has to be decided is whether the money made by drug companies to control an infection is more important than finally coming up with cures for viruses and their underlying conditions like the pneumonia that develops with Covid19.

 

What is needed is better studies to get these claims right or wrong. When you take the total population in with the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths, it looks like the vaccines worked. But, when you look at the last 14 days, it's not as great of results. The infections are much higher as well as hospitalizations and deaths. Israel has seen rising cases even though they are close to 100% vaccinated. As well as Great Britain. Yet, infections, hospitalizations and deaths are way up. So, herd immunity isn't working. And, how long do the vaccines prove at least some protections? More and more it's looking like at most 2 months. So, are we getting boosters every two months now?
I'd like to see the shift towards finally finding cures for viruses. The drug companies may go out of business, but it's like climate change, things change and we have to change with them. Maybe we can even get a cure for cancer as well if drug companies really want it. Politicians too. Heck, Biden is using Covid19 to get people's mind off of the boarder, Afghanistan, rising inflation, poor economy and the other messes he's created.

 

You can argue that we didn't have that option before the vaccines, but now we do. Every person who was at risk of hospitalization or death from the virus now has an option to get the vaccine. Meanwhile our moving the goalposts from 15 days to reduce the curve is going on two years of trying to prevent otherwise healthy people from being infected has not worked very well.

I'm not sure that strategy is possible but the longer we try to do that the longer this goes on, and more time for more mutations and variants.

 

Let's not bring climate change into this. It doesn't relate at all. Masks are used in surgery to prevent transmission of bacteria not the very much smaller virus. The N95 respirators are somewhat effective with virus. They can't prevent infection but they can reduce the viral load in the person infected giving antibodies a better chance of meeting the viral challenge. The masks people actually wear are useless for the most part.

There is no such thing as a medical cure for any virus. You can't kill a virus because a virus isn't an organism like a bacterium. Only the immune system can deal with viruses. The vaccines cause the immune system to develop anti bodies against an intruder that it hasn't encountered before. The virus causes the same thing but a vaccinated person is a step ahead of the virus and can deal with it much better. So we can motivate the immune system to develop anti bodies and we can treat symptoms therapeutically. That's about it.

I think there is some benefit to distancing. Since the virus rides on exhaled air and moisture, if the target is far enough away, it will hit the ground or lower body before hitting the face. So it makes some sense. We need to abandon the masks. They aren't helping. Mandating business closures not only didn't work but made matters worse. Distance if you can and get vaccinated. The rest of it isn't helping anything. Let's get back to leading more normal lives.

 

Climate change is all about political power over the individual's rights. So are all the government mandates like masks, isolation, vaccines... So, it is a correct and viable analogy. All people ever talk about are N95 and surgical masks. That's what is called a red herring. The mandates require thing cloth masks that we are all wearing. Not surgical nor N95 masks. Every study done on masks reverts to N95 masks and surgical masks. There are no scientific studies where cloth masks stop the Covid19 virus.

Monoclonal Antibodies therapy has shown to be very effective against the virus. Yet, today, Biden bought 3 billion dollars worth of it and so the States aren't able to buy it ad use it in the hospitals as often. Why did Biden do this? Because he doesn't want this virus to be controlled in any other way than tyrannical mandates for as long as he can. It's for political reasons. Other drugs are being used and have also been effective. But, these drugs are very expensive.

Distancing isn't leading normal lives either. We are social creatures and should hug and make contact. It's very important that children make physical contact for a variety of reasons. I agree with the masks. Once the virus is in the body, it multiplies too fast if a person's system can't overcome it. Israel is 100% vaccinated and yet they haven't controlled the virus either. They have shown that those who have the virus are 27 times better protected than with the vaccine. And, the vaccines may not be as good as people think too.

 

A different approach to herd immunity?

We have all seen that the vaccines provide protection for a limited time and this protection reduced for new variants due to some vaccines targeting just the spike protein. We have also seen the natural immunity provides much better protection Because it targets the whole virus.

So perhaps a new approach is to have something similar to a "Covid party" for those who have been recently vaccinated instead of them continuing social distancing or masking etc? We have seen that deaths and hospitalisation is hugely reduced for those recently vaccinated. Anecdotally, I now know many people who got Covid after vaccination and None of them had symptoms any worse than a slight sore throat or bit of a headache but presumably they will have higher protection against future variants than what would be given by a booster

 

Not for everyone. The vaccine seems to be a better (less risky) solution for people with conditions that make them likely to die from covid.

For a young, healthy person with good nutrition and a strong immune system, covid is less risky than than the adverse reaction lottery we call a vaccine. But covid is a serious killer of the already sick and immunocompromised. If I was 80 with diabetes and an active social life, I'd take my chances with the vaccine. But I'm a healthy middle aged hermit with no conditions, plenty of vitamins and a well practiced immune system, so bring on the delta so I can get my sweet sweet immunity the natural way.

 

No, it's not true that natural immunity provides much better protection. Actually the data show the opposite. There was ONE article linked to here suggesting otherwise and I entirely debunked it and showed how flawed it is; it wouldn't pass peer review. They considered 3 categories of cases in their analysis and actually the third one, natural infection + 1 dose of the vaccine is the one that came on top, so the article doesn't even say what people who kept yelling out loud about it thought it was saying. And the article doesn't consider 4 other situations that I quoted (natural infection plus two doses, no natural infection but three doses of the vaccine, and others that I quoted in my long analysis of this study), so it's entirely insufficient to reach a conclusion. And just as much as this ONE study (partially) suggested this, several others found HIGHER neutralizing antibody titers with the mRNA vaccines than with the natural infection. In science we don't go by ONE article, we go by a set of articles that reflect several studies, and we pool together the results (that's called a meta-analysis). Lay press and lay people tend to latch onto ONE study and they believe it contains the irrefutable proof. And often they don't see the methodology flaws.

Targeting the spike protein rather than the whole virus actually increases the production of neutralizing antibodies because the whole immune system focuses on the antibodies that really matter. The whole virus diffuses and dilutes that, which is shown for example in the fact that whole virus inactivated vaccines like the Chinese CoronaVac have yielded worse results than the spike-focused mRNA vaccines.

That study is also laughable in comparing apples and oranges... it pretends (actually it doesn't even say that, but for the sake of the argument) that protection is better from the natural immunity (acquired from a first infection)... to a SECOND infection (re-infection) as compared to a vaccinated person's odds of breakthrough infection which is a FIRST infection... so, the price to pay for better protection against catching it AGAIN is catching it in the first place... as opposed to NOT catching it for most vaccinated people and only having some breakthrough infections? So, getting the virus twice is better than getting it once? Or getting it once is better than never getting it? RIDICULOUS. Duh, you can come out of a natural infection with some immunity... but it may be too late for you because you ALREADY had the virus so you may already have permanent organ damage from it. Big advantage... LOL.

Yes, we've seen that the protection from the vaccines fade, regarding neutralizing antibody titers... but two situations are not being considered by you or by that article or others that look into that: what happens when you boost (efficacy is restored) and what happens to cellular immunity (antibody titer is not all; you can have a low titer but once you encounter the antigen again, your dormant memory B cells jump to action, become activated into plasma cell, and churn out huge titers of neutralizing antibodies; this is why the initial viral load is similar for vaccinated and unvaccinated people in case of a breakthrough infection, but then the viral load drops rapidly for the vaccinated individual and the virus gets cleared out).

New approach of Covid party: there couldn't be a stupider idea. This is a VERY dangerous virus. Even a mild case can result in concerning sequelae. Sure, people are not likely to die but just look at the Ohio State University study we've shown several times here: a freaking 30% of healthy student athletes who had mild or even asymptomatic Covid-19 came out of it with heart damage. Not to forget the huge risk of thrombosis with stroke and pulmonary embolism. This virus is best avoided, and actively seeking to be infected by it, regardless of vaccination status, is one of the dumbest thing someone could do. If you find people defending this idea including scientists, do now that: they are dead wrong, and not all scientists are smart or have common sense. Black sheep and people who graduate last in their class exist in every professional category.

 

Yeah, great, if you don't end up with severe myocarditis, brain fog, new onset diabetes from destruction of your beta pancreatic cells, lung fibrosis, kidney insufficient, a stroke, pulmonary embolism... You seem to be generally an intelligent individual judging by some of your posting, and it's surprising how you can't understand such a simple concept: the death toll is not all that needs to feared regarding this virus, but also the 20% to 30% of organ damage in survivors, including the young and healthy who had mild or asymptomatic infections, as shown by the Ohio State University study showing 30% of heart damage in healthy student athletes who had mild and asymptomatic Covid-19. You are playing with fire and you are dead wrong in thinking that your naturally trained immune system can safely handle this very dangerous virus which is best avoided. "No conditions, plenty of vitamins and a well practiced immune system" is a romantic idea but it is no match to this very dangerous virus that has damaged for life people just like you, who were silly enough to only think "I won't die from this, so who cares?" Yes, you won't die from this... but you may have your quality of life, life expectancy, and productivity maimed by sequelae. Sure, 20% to 30% is still a minority but a VERY significant one, so if you want to play Russian roulette with this virus, I'd call it a boneheaded decision. Meanwhile you won't get vaccinated, although the severe reactions to the vaccines occur in just 0.0000123%. Incredible. How can people be so misguided and so boneheaded about this? It's a no-brainer that the vaccines are better but even intelligent people like you can't see it. Sad.

 

Whether vaccinated or not, co-morbidities makes a huge difference. Especially overweight. Monoclonal antibody shots work. Biden is mad at DeSantis so he's stopped distribution of Monoclonal antibody shots to states just to make DeSantil follow his tyrannical mandates. How many will die because of this? Biden the Butcher!

 

I'm actually getting a lot of my information from people who would probably be considered 'your peers.' Some of them had some interesting things to say in the FDA's Public Comments portion of their recent hearing regarding Pfizer's boosters. I made a thread on it:
(My) Highlights from the FDA's Public Comments portion of the Pfizer Booster Hearing | PoliticalForum.com - Forum for US and Intl Politics

 

What does this have to do with what I was telling you? We're not talking about boosters, we're talking about you getting the basic vaccination series, shots 1 and 2, not shot 3.
And by the way, FYI, I disagree with my colleagues from the FDA regarding their meeting on Friday. I'd have set the booster eligibility much lower than age 65+.
I'll explore your thread later, but I don't know how soon. I'm now watching the NFL, will do so all day long plus some 5 college games I DVR'd from yesterday (I was out of town, having lots of fun). Sundays for me are for football, not for worrying about Covid. It's not that I don't want to give attention to your thread and posts, given that like I said I consider you an intelligent poster; just don't feel like doing it right now. My team has just scored a TD, yay!

 

No they aren't. Close to 80% of adults are vaccinated, but about 68% of the total population.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/...n-high-case-rates-lessons-australia/100442304

 

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/israel/

You can see that Israel just wen through a large up tick in cases. It's now falling again. But, that's just recent. Fauci was wrong about 70% vaccinated to get to herd immunity. Someone should yank his license for being so stupid.

 

Do we get to yank your internet posting privileges for blatantly misrepresenting what is happening in Israel?

 

Nothing is misrepresented. It's for all to see and it shows I'm correct and you are not.

 

Nope. You said Israel was close to 100% vaccinated. The actual figure is closer to 70%. You misrepresented the figure, either because you are too lazy to do basic research or because you deliberately chose to misrepresent it. There is no third option. Based on your response and other posts it is about 50/50 as to which.

I do understand that you can't comprehend this. Trumpers have taught themselves that what they believe is always 'fact', no matter how untrue. The Dear Leader models that behaviour and the cult follows. It has the advantage that you don't need to bother with all that tiresome research or the awkwardness of contradictory facts. You are right because you say you are. Easy!

 

Oh, good grief. Liberal Democrats always believe they are right and everyone else is wrong. It was Democrats that had thrills running up their legs when Obama won. Heck, school teachers wrote songs for their students to learn to indoctrinate Obama as king. 80 million knuckleheads voted for the biggest knucklehead of all time, Biden...

 

I was right and you were wrong. Not a matter of 'belief', a matter of demonstrable fact. Clearly you either don't care about the difference or don't understand it.

 

Ideology is a belief. And, Democrats have the most destructive ideology belief in the history of the world.