Election 2018: 10 Senate Seats that could flip

From the Hill:

10 Senate seats that could flip in 2018

Democrats reeling from a devastating election face a daunting task: the 2018 Senate map.

It favors Republicans in a big way. The GOP will be defending just eight seats, while Democrats must fight for 23 — plus another two held by independents who caucus with Democrats.

What’s worse is the fact that many of the seats they must defend are in states won by Republican Donald Trump.
Midterm elections for sitting presidents are historically challenging. Democrats in the Senate are hoping to find some political momentum for 2018 given the difficult playing ground.

Here are 10 Senate seats that could flip, in alphabetical order:

Bill Nelson (D-Fla.)

Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.)

Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.)

Jon Tester (D-Mont.)

Dean Heller(R-Nev.)

Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.)

Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)

Bob Casey (D-Pa.)

Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.)

Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.)

Since I'm from Florida, I'll opine that Bill Nelson is probably safe if he plans to run again. The most plausible opposition is Governor Rick Scott who, quite frankly, just isn't ready for prime time.

 

Indiana here. Joe Donnelly plays more like a Blue Dog Dem and comes from the north of the state dominated by two cities, Fort Wayne and Gary. He hasn't pissed off a lot of people so may be safe.

 

I really don't see Joe Manchin losing his seat.

 

The American people are lashing out at the collective. Establishment politicians of either party will be in trouble, especially the collectivist. America is choosing independence over assimilation.

 

Yup, the Dems have a monumental task ahead of them regarding the 2018 Senate seats up for grabs. In just looking at the numbers, 10 seats held by Democrats are in states Trump won by 20 points or more. On paper, this thing is over with the Republicans possibly very near the 60 seat mark. However, the Trump effect on the equation could be very interesting, there is a long way to go...........

 

It is nowhere near that bad.

The GOP has ZERO chance to get to 60 in the Senate.

Of the above list in the OP, the 2 most likely to flip are NV and ND.

The best guess is that the Dems hold serve or maybe lose a net of 1 seat.

 

So do you think the Demos can hold the other 15 seats they have up in 2018?

 

Marion county is huge for the Democrat.

 

It looks like the US Senate will be safe for the GOP then.

The House on the other hand could go DEM in 2018 at the rate Ryan and Trump are going.

 

It's possible, but I think it would take some major foreign policy or domestic policy disaster to flip the House to the Dems in 2018.

 

Trumpcare1 and 2 have already done that.

 

Nothings passed, so nothing has failed. If nothing gets passed and Obamacare continues to collapse, that would be a domestic disaster, but it's one Trump can plausibly argue he's been trying to stop. That may hurt the Democrats worse since even now they're foolishly defending the darned thing. Plenty of soundbites to use in the election ads.

 

I agree with you. Trump is being played by his own party because there will be no tax relief or heath care overhaul. The reason is because they don't want to change the status quo. If they change Health Care then they would own it. Health Care is a loser for Republicans and Democrats. The only way it can be fixed is to completely repeal it. the only way to fix it is bi-partisan support.

I believe the big banks, internationals and big money lobbyist's have no interest in a tax overhaul. Wall Street want's it though. I don't think it gets done. Going to need Democrats and the cost may be too high to get them on board. The establishment and deep state will win.

So why will the Democrats win seats? The people who voted for Trump will not support any candidate that does not support Trump now and his agenda. Were not like Democrats; we will punish our own.

 

Any corporation paying taxes and not sinking hidden profits overseas would surely WANT tax reform especially with both parties talking about a corporate rate cut.

To balance the cut however, Apple & Microsoft & Walmart & Google etc will need to chip in millions from their untaxed overseas hidden profits to make the cut work.

So those are the corporations that will cry out against corporate tax reform.

I think the banks on the other hand will go for it.

 

Bill Nelson will be 77 years old by the 2018 election.

Nelson's KKK connections in Central Florida may actually catch up with him this time.

 

I do see him switching parties though.

 

Given the history of your thousands of messages predicting election outcomes, statistically it is essentially certain the GOP will get to 60 seats.

 

When have KKK connections ever hurt a Democrat? Certainly age hasn't.

 

Please for the love of God stop predicting things, it really embarrasses you.

 

But you have the question many conservatives are asking: why should I even vote, what difference does it make?

 

What was your best guess on the POTUS election?

 

Then instead of giving it to Democrats, Trump Republican voters should either A: Run themselves, B: Vote for a third party candidate or C: Find Trump Republicans to run. Don't just give us a Democrat. I fully believe a Republican President should have a Republican Congress, a Democrat should have a Democratic Congress.

A bipartisan political map only works insofar as they actually ARE bipartisan, but they aren't and never will be.

 

I agree. We have a better chance of getting the correct time from a broken clock than an accurate prediction from ZERO CHANCE Jackson.

 

I've come to the conclusion that the Republicans will never do what they should do, which is to repeal the whole thing. But they could save some face by doing just one thing; repeal the individual mandate, which would free every individual citizen from having to buy into that ungodly behemoth known as the ACA. I would think that even a lot of middle-class Democrats would like to see the mandate done away with.

I grew up in ND, and I'm pretty sure Heidi Heitkamp will retain her Senate seat. She plays the middle of the road pretty well, and ND has a long history of re-electing moderate Democrat Senators over-and-over-again (Dorgan and Conrad).

I happen to live now in NV, and I agree with the OP that republican Dean Heller could be a goner this time around.

 

I sort of like bi-partisan. That way very little gets changed. Smaller government is best.