Exclusive poll: Women lock in on 2020

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by MrTLegal, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. BuckyBadger

    BuckyBadger Well-Known Member

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    But he won and they were all wrong. I guess their tainted margins are an excuse, like weathermen use to explain why they called for rain and it's still sunny. lol
     
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  2. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Yea...predicting the future collective actions of millions of human beings is kinda hard.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2020
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  3. BuckyBadger

    BuckyBadger Well-Known Member

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    So they are pretty useless, in other words. If anything they are merely a useless guide of what could happen. Maybe, perhaps, sort of. Assuming the pollsters didn't fish for answers to the poll ahead of time like CNN used to do.

    Much like this "exclusive" poll? lol
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2020
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  4. Dispondent

    Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What's this popular vote you speak of? Trump won the popular vote in 60% of the states. How don't you get that? Instead you create something that doesn't exist and pretend its real. You folks are unbelievable. There is no such thing as a combined popular vote, because each race is separate for the House and Senate...
     
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  5. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Then you aren't addressing the accuracy of polls anymore. You are attacking models.

    Polls attempt to measure and predict popular vote. National Polling does it for the Nation and Statewide Polling does it each State.
     
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  6. Dispondent

    Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Way to miss the point, Hillary received 20% of all her votes from NY and CA. Meaning that winning big in two states put her over the top in the imaginary metric of 'popular vote' but was clearly not a reflected reality in other states because as you will notice, she couldn't even win half the states. Clearly you folks don't get how our system works and why two states don't determine our presidential elections, over a majority of states...
     
  7. Dispondent

    Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What accuracy? If you go through the demographics you can clearly see the bias and manufactured results, that's not accurate.

    Yet you pretend the polls weren't wrong in 2016, you folks are too much...
     
  8. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    The polls were wrong...to a degree of roughly 1.1%
     
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  9. guavaball

    guavaball Well-Known Member

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    He just did :)
     
  10. Dispondent

    Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The polls were wrong to a much larger degree than that, nobody had Trump winning 60% of the states, nobody had polls that indicated that. Your assertion of 1.1% is pure nonsense...
     
  11. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    That's because POLLS DO NOT PREDICT ELECTORAL COLLEGE OUTCOMES.
     
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  12. Dispondent

    Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's what we've been telling you for years now, glad you finally understand. Your 'popular vote' polls are utterly useless. I can't believe you finally got it! You totally deserve a cookie or something!
     
  13. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    And yet I am still going to post relevant and interesting polling data, like the data from the OP which suggests Democratic women are more motivated than their Republican counterparts.

    Adjust accordingly.
     
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  14. Dispondent

    Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Don't get me wrong here, I love your manufactured silly polls. They keep you folks ignorant to reality and give false hope. Best part, you do it to yourselves. Its guilt free comedy...
     
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  15. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    You don't even have a nominee yet.
     
  16. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    Exactly.
     
  17. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    And that's fair to argue that the generic "trump vs democratic" nominee should thus be taken with a grain of salt. But probably no more so than the same grain of salt that should be applied to any poll which attempts to predict the result of an even 9 months into the future.

    But the point of the post you quoted was to establish the accuracy of previous polling data against the actual outcome.
     
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  18. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the update on that trend.

    If we look at the decline trend in the criminal IMPOTUS's primary support demographic and take note that women live longer than men the odds are that out of the 3.5 million fewer voters a majority will be men.

    Combine that with your data above and the greater motivation of women voters and the question remains unanswered as to where the criminal IMPOTUS is going to find the additional votes he needs to win in 2020.

    Women kicked ass in 2018 and given the trends and motivation they going to be kicking even harder in 2020. The SCOTUS taking up the abortion issue will just add to their determination so whomever can address their concerns is going to be the stronger candidate.
     
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  19. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Having to explain to criminal IMPOTUS supporters how polling works tells us why he loves the "poorly educated". They just don't understand the data and believe his 16k lies without questioning any of them!
     
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  20. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Actually Benensen is rated by 538 as a B/C with a D bias of 0.6.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

    Select additional pollsters and search for Benensen.
     
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  21. BuckyBadger

    BuckyBadger Well-Known Member

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    Yes, it is. Especially when they get it all wrong and then claim it was "within the variance" and totally accepted.

    lol
     
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  22. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    The phrase is "within the margin of error."
     
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  23. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    What if Republican women were simply already more engaged last time and Democrat women are just catching up?
     
  24. BuckyBadger

    BuckyBadger Well-Known Member

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    Error being the key word. :)
     
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  25. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I must have missed it. I did a find and nothing came up for Ben, thanks.
     
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