I get the feeling the greens may yet hold balance of power. Palmer is flooding the internet with promises promises - none of which he intends to keep and he has too much of a Trump flavour for many Aussies but that does not mean he will not have a cadre of voters. Pauline will struggle because it is her voters that will split to Palmer. Morrison is unpopular but he is a known unpopular and the economy is not quite bad enough for people to vote labor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election
The ALP will pick up enough seats to govern in its own right. The LNP vote will take a major hit. I'm not sure how many 'teal independents' will get up, but if there is a hung Parliament they and other centrist will likely hold the key to power. Their key demands are climate action & a federal ICAC. The LNP cannot deliver either, which likely means a minority ALP government. If Dutton & Frydenberg lose their seats (and both could) the Libs are really going to have trouble finding a leader. The talent pool is as shallow as a state party and any possible contender may be up before a federal ICAC before the next term is over.
I would like to think labor will win - don’t know if anyone has noticed but I’m a bit of a lefty There is just a fair bit of inertia in the electorate if I am reading things right and that means “same old same old”. I would LOVE to help vote out my local incumbent but he is so entrenched that a nuke could not shift the twit. Hey BF - do you think we should try and tell the Americans how our system works? On second thoughts explaining cricket would be easier!
I am reading a different mood. There has been a decisive shift against Morrison. People aren't crazy about Albo, but they really dislike Scotty. He has zero trust, and no real agenda beyond getting elected. I know people on the right and left of the LNP spectrum who won't be voting LNP this time. While the polls were wrong last time, they were also a LOT closer and had been closing for at least 6 months. The ALP still has a 6-12 point lead two weeks out. That is far enough outside the MOE to give a fair picture. The LNP is going down, just a question of how many the ALP picks up. Once the ICAC is established the LNP is going to spend years fighting off investigations arising from the last 9 years. The level of corruption that is just commonplace with this government is beyond anything I've seen at federal level. Wasting your time. The level of brainwashing among certain demographics is such that their instinctive reaction to any idea from outside is rejection. They immediately look for reasons why it won't work, not because the ideas are inherently bad, but because they must be wrong. Its like dealing with adolescents with no understanding of anything outside their own tiny world - they just get angry & confused if you introduce outside ideas.
True mate I live in a rural district that has had the same federal rep for waaaay too many years so what I am probably reading here is just the usual “same old same old” this district always does
Not happy about the two choices. Labor has missed to credibly promote a better future for us, Alba can't even remember the base rate of our currency (inexcusable). Scomo won't change a thing except to come up with more lies. His failures are without excuse, we lost the Solomon islands, the submarine deal with France, his denial of not knowing a thing about the rape at Parliament House as well as his stand on women's agendas in general. And when half the country burned he was in Hawaii, if my memory serves me correct. And not to forget that climate change (one reason the Solomon's turned the other chief) is as important for him as it was for John Howard or Tony Abbott. With the coalition we will mine coal for the next 1000 years. The Greens might become a bit stronger (hopefully) and Palmer and Hanson only appear to the idiots (those on the right side of the fence) of our country. I am happy however not to watch the discussion between Scomo and Alba on TV anymore, from a leader of our country I would have expected more, much more, and that starts with vision and a certain class... Reg. Cats
It certainly looks like Labor are over the line based on polls but we’ve obviously seen things change pretty dramatically before. I guess it is an unlosable election for labor lol. It certainly sounds like independents are looking good and playing it safe by not showing their hand with regard to a hung parliament. It seems that Albanese has a touch more appeal than his predecessor so that might play out well for him. I’ll call it a win for Labor if Albanese has no trip ups between now and the election.
Australia needs at least another major political party but I’m not personally sold on the greens tbh. Definitely some good logical policies but most people are unsure of ramifications on given issues, especially economy. When the greens last held the balance of power they tended to block the best of bad policy because it didn’t suit them to a tee so we ended up with the worst option. This approach didn’t make much sense, it’s like throwing the baby out with the bath water.
Yep, also the Greens needs to learn and progress. And they will. I am more surprised that Scomo often appears to be forgiven by the public, not sure why. With all the shortcomings over those few years he should be belted..... Cats
I’m not sure the public have forgiven Scomo based on polls but if voters get the jitters about Albo, we know that it can all change pretty quickly. Hey M2, at the end of the day I’m just glad we have a large enough section of our voting public who are swinging voters. Things can flip pretty quickly in state and federal politics. I always reflect on what could have been had the Democrats not done a deal with Howard on the GST. The Democrats were no more after that. Whatever happened to Meg Lees anyway?
I didn't vote, there wasn't anyone worth my vote in my electorate. I was considering voting United Australia Party until they started running ads on keeping interest rates low. That lost him my vote. I don't see much difference between the major parties. Hopefully Labor legalizes recreational cannabis.
After reading through thread post election it seems you were all on the money. I’m saving my pennies up and hedging a bet next time ; ) . The cannabis party did better than UAP. Might be an industry to invest in soon SP. lol The Greens are growing and TEAL independents kicked some serious butt.
The Teals 'may' have staying power long term. But it depends on how disciplined consistent they can be as a 'group'. The problem being of course they are not a party. Which is only a problem if their views on issues other than climate turn out to be so widely disparate that it makes it impossible for the Government of the day to consistently reach a consensus with them on any legislation bar Supply and climate related matters. The Greens? Have policies on issues outside of the environment which are largely unsellable to the electorate at large. Taking Defense as an example. Their Defense 'Policy' as stated during one interview prior to this election involved a commitment to reduce defense spending from the current target accepted by both Labor and the Liberals of 2% of GDP to 1.5% and to then 'seek peaceful resolution of international disputes through non-violent means' !!!. That's not a policy its a motherhood statement, buts it all they have.
I trust them to **** up legalisation. All I really want is legal possession and legal cultivation on an individual level. Legal sales in stores would be an added bonus, but I'm not interested in it without cultivation also being legalised. We had it in WA in the early 2000s thanks to a rare moment of clarity from our state Labor party. Unfortunately Barnett's liberals recriminalised personal cultivation in 2006. One of my larger disagreements with the liberal party.
It will always be a two-party prefered political race. Labor or Liberal. They are just as bad as each other. No matter how many votes towards the independents, either Labor or Liberal will always get in. Why? The AEC (Australian Electoral Commission) is compromised.
