Five poll numbers that should make Democrats uneasy

2017 was a very entertaining year and I expect 2018 will be even more. The main event dominating 2018 will be the November election; will the Democrats retake the House? Will the Republicans assert dominance in the Senate or be blocked with a weak majority?

This article is from last July, but it sums up several current polls saying the same thing.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/22/politics/five-poll-numbers-democrats-uneasy/index.html

1. Trump is (barely) above water on the economy. A plurality of Americans -- 43% -- approve of Trump's handling of the economy, according to an ABC News/Washington Post pollpublished Sunday. A close 41% disapprove. Meanwhile, the US economy continues to improve, with 222,000 new jobs in June, and the unemployment rate is hovering near full employment at4.4 percent.

2. A majority thinks Democrats don't stand for anything other than being against Trump. Only 37% of Americans say the Democratic Party "stands for something," while 52% say it just stands against Trump, according to the same ABC News/Washington Post poll. It comes at a time when Democrats are left without a clear figurehead and many, both inside and outside of the party, have criticized its leaders for lack of a clear message.

3. Midterm numbers show a potential soft spot for Democrats. There's a lot of time left before the 2018 midterms roll around, but poll questions used to estimate voter turnout aren't a slam dunk for Democrats at this point. The difference between people who say they are casting their midterm ballot to oppose Trump and people casting their midterm ballot to support Trump is 4 points -- compared to 10 points opposing former President Barack Obama in 2014 and 14 points opposing former President George W. Bush in 2006, according to the ABC/Post poll. And voter enthusiasm is virtually identical for both pro-Trump and anti-Trump forces.

4. Democrat favorables haven't budged since the 2016 conventions. Americans' perceptions of the Democratic Party have remained virtually the same for the last 12 months -- underwater. Forty-eight percent of Americans have a negative view of the Democrats right now, according to a Bloomberg News poll released Tuesday. That's compared to 49% in December and 47% last August. And while that's not as bad as their Republican counterparts, it's far from a positive sign for the party that lost the 2016 presidential race.

5. Trump supporters aren't going anywhere. It appears Trump supporters are just as on board as they were during the campaign. His support among Republicans matches the third-highest approval among a president's own party during a new president's first six months in more than 60 years, according to Gallup. Plus, 75%of people living in counties that fuel Trump's base approve of his bargaining with Carrier and General Motors to keep jobs in the US, according to a NBC/WSJ poll from Tuesday. What do a majority Trump supporters dislike? His use of Twitter.

 

They have more than just those 5 polls to worry about.


How the Democratic Party Lost the Support of Poor Whites


Brutal: Poll Spells Big Trouble For Dems With White Working Class Voters.....

 

I think if the election was held today, the Democrats would easily retake the house. The GOP might even end up with a one seat net loss in the senate. Fueling this is a 10-12 point lead in the generic congressional polls for the Democrats. History has shown a lead of over 8 points has translated into a minimum of a 30 seat net gain. There are also 29 Republican House members not seeking re-election this year. Open seats are the easiest to win, switch. If the election was held today, the Republicans would most likely lose Nevada and Arizona while picking up Missouri.



Looking at the latest YouGov poll congressional Democrats have only a 35% favorable vs 50% unfavorable. But congressional Republicans is at 25% favorable/59% unfavorable. Add this to the generic congressional polls and you can see why the chances of the Democrats taking back the House in November are pretty darn good.



Voter turnout for the midterms is always unpredictable. But the hatred of Trump by the Democratic base most likely will cause an increased turnout. On the GOP side, there are around 15% of Republicans still in the never Trump mode. Will they turn out? Unknown.


I think the big numbers aren’t the Democrats or Republicans, but independents. Independents gave Trump the win in 2016 by voting for him by a 46-42 margin over Clinton with 12% voting third party. On inauguration day, independents had given Trump a 48% favorable vs 41% unfavorable. But today only 36% of independents have a favorable view of Trump vs. 47% unfavorable. That is a 12 point drop among independents in the favorable category and an 11 point rise in the unfavorable column. Could be independents will be voting Democratic in the midterms. But that remains to be seen.

 

Then you forgot that the Demos went racist against whites, and that the people haven't forgot the Demos mouthpieces the Lame Stream Media meddling in an election and assisting the Demos with their Soft Coup.

 

All they seem to do is slow everything down, argue and act stubborn, while they refuse to bargain and add dirt to clean bills. What a waste of money and time.

 

I look at the numbers and go with what they tell me. You ought to remember that from DP and my forecasts. I've been pretty accurate with them. For the most part Republicans will support Republicans and Democrats, Democrats. The question then becomes, which way with the non-affiliated go or vote? Also how many will bother to vote? That we can't forecast.

Will it be like 2006 where independents went for the Democratic congressional candidates over the GOP candidates 57-39 leading to a net gain of 33 seats for the Democrats. Or will it be closer to 2010 where independents changed their leanings and went for the Republican congressional candidates 57-41 causing the GOP to gain 63 seats. Independents went for the Republicans again in 2014 54-44 when the GOP increased its seats in the house and gained the senate.

In 2012 independents went to Romney 51-48, but that wasn't enough to overcome the 6 point advantage the Democrats had in their base support over the Republicans.

2016 independents once more went for Trump 46-42 over Clinton. But since then independents have come to view Trump and his obnoxious temper tantrums via twitter very unfavorably. Will independents take their unfavorable view of Trump and take it out on Republican congressional candidates, I think so. Independents have a long history of siding with the party out of power, will they do so again in 2018? That remains to be seen, but the indications are there that they will.

 

Are you talking about Dems? Do you remember 8 years of Republicans constantly starting bills that had NO SHOT of going anywhere. They do the same thing now. They want money for wall, a wall that El Presidente said the Mexicans would pay for. He still says that and yet wants billions for it. The Dems were always against this and yet that's what they bring to the table for DACA. It's a non-starter. Also throw in that the dope in charge agreed to one thing and then changed his mind....again.
And the Dems are the bad guy?

 

1 poll number that should bother Republicans,

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-ends-1st-lowest-average-approval-rating-162101984.html

This is a record not to be coveted: Donald Trump is wrapping up a year in office with the lowest average approval rating of any elected president in his first term.

 

Way too early.

Anything is possible.

A lot can change (in either direction).

Let's see how things are looking in mid-October.

 

I'm not going to disagree with you because I know it's true. Now, the dems do it too. Does that make them better, worse or the same?

Then, we need to make this stop. I'm sick of it. I don't care which party is at fault. They all are, but today, it's the Dems. WTF?

 

On the one hand you will have Pelosi and running with Impeachment and then on the other.

4% GDP growth.....you tell me which way the Independents will go.

Money in their pockets or Loss of Money with Pelosi and crew.

Oh and I know you know about that white vote Pero. Tell me what happens to the Demos losing Poor and the Working White Class. What is and has been the reality with that type of economy taking place.

Yes you went with the polls and if you remember I went with the insiders game. How did I do for 2010, 2012, and 2016?

 

1. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...ter/promise/1414/grow-economy-4-percent-year/

2. http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

35% approval from Independents.

 

Mid-term elections are almost an eternity away. We don't know what frantic, panic-attack, end of the world and anonymous source attacks against Trump and Republicans the global corporate MSM will try to use to corrupt the election season.

 

Politifact


Bob Wright on US economy: 2018 will be the most outstanding …
Fox Business · 7h
The U.S. economy expanded more than 3% during the second and third quarter of 2017, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model …


Econimica: Contemplations on America and 4% GDP Growth
https://econimica.blogspot.com/2018/01/contemplations-on-america...
Friday, January 12, 2018. ... suggest that 4% GDP growth is likely and ... I'll lay out how the US economy has grown ever more reliant on cheap ...

US Economic Outlook: For 2018 and Beyond
The U.S. economic outlook is healthy according to the key economic indicators. The most critical indicator is the gross domestic product, which measures the nation's production output. The GDP growth rate is expected to remain between the 2 percent to 3 percent ideal range. Unemployment is forecast to continue at the natural rate. There isn't too much inflation or deflation. That's a Goldilocks economy.

Overview
U.S. GDP growth will rise to 2.5 percent in 2018. It's the same as in 2017, but better than the 2.1 percent growth in 2016. The GDP growth rate will be 2.1 percent in 2019 and 2.0 percent in 2020. That's according to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 13, 2017. This estimate takes into account Trump's policies.

The unemployment rate will drop to 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019 but rise to 4.0 percent in 2020. That's better than the 4.1 percent rate in 2017, and the 4.7 percent rate in 2016. It's also better than the Fed's 6.7 percent target. But Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen admits a lot of workers are part-time and would prefer full-time work.

Inflation will be 1.9 percent in 2018, 2.0 percent in 2019 and beyond. It was 1.7 percent in 2017. They are lower than the 2.1 percent rate in 2016, and the 0.7 percent inflation experienced in 2015. The low rates in those years were caused by declining oil prices. The core inflation rate strips out those volatile gas and food prices. The Fed prefers to use that rate when setting monetary policy. The core inflation rate will be 1.9 percent in 2018, 2.0 percent in 2019 and 2020. (It's unusual that the core rate is that similar to the regular inflation rate.) Fortunately, the core rate is close to the Fed's 2.0 percent target inflation rate. That gives the Fed room to raise rates to a more normal level. Here's more on the U.S. Inflation Rate History and Forecast.

U.S. manufacturing is forecast to increase faster than the general economy. Production will grow 2.8 percent in 2018. Growth will slow to 2.6 percent in 2019 and 2 percent in 2020. Those forecasts have not yet taken into account President Trump's promises to create more jobs.

The Fed began reducing its $4 trillion in Treasurys in October. It initially said it would do so only after the fed funds rate has normalized to 2.0 percent. But the FOMC decided it would be better to normalize its balance sheet now. The Fed acquired these securities during quantitative easing, which ended in 2014. Since the Fed is no longer replacing the securities it owns, it will create more supply in the Treasurys market.

That should raise the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. That drives up long-term interest rates, such as fixed-rate mortgages and corporate bonds.

But Treasury yields also depend on demand for the dollar. If demand is high, yields will drop. As the global economy improves, investors have been demanding less of this ultra-safe investment. As a result, long-term and fixed interest rates will rise in 2017 and beyond.

The last time the Fed raised rates was in 2005. It helped cause the subprime mortgage crisis. A majority of Americans believe the real estate market will crash in the next two years. There are nine differences between the 2017 housing market and the 2007 market that makes this unlikely....snip~

https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669


Jamie Dimon predicts 4% U.S. growth - marketwatch.com
www.marketwatch.com › Investing › Cryptocurrencies › Key Words
Jan 09, 2018 · “It’s not going to raise us off to 4% GDP growth,” he told ... we look for the package to boost GDP growth by about 0.3%-pt in 2018 and 0.2% ...

US Real GDP Will Grow at 4% or More In 2018 - 10 …
https://mottcapitalmanagement.com/us-real-gdp-will-grow-4-2018-10...
Prediction #9 for 2018- The US Real GDP will grow at 4 percent or more. The current employment trends and tax reform likely make it happen.

2018 Earnings Will Grow 4% Or 11% Or Shrink 13%
https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2017/12/15/2018-earnings...
Dec 15, 2017 · This idea is certainly relevant with real GDP expected to rise 1.9% in 2018 along with 2.1% inflation — resulting in a 4% nominal growth according to the Congressional Budget Office. That is about half the 9.8% rate of earnings growth for the S&P 500 in the third quarter of 2017, according to FactSet.


I don't think Politifact can compete with those I just posted Nor the Congressional Budget Office leftist.

Oh and btw.....those links are Left and Right.

 

1. Politifact didn't make the data, they are reporting on it. Furthermore, some of the data in your links agrees with Politifact's citation and sources.

2. There has been no 4% growth. I'm sorry I didn't take your post a prediction, rather a statement. Make it more clear next time.

3. Some people do predict 4%, but many do not. Even one of your more credible links states this.

Your article indicates only few economists think 4% is going to happen. While others do not.

We'll have to wait and see. Just make it clear in your post next time.

"4% GDP growth.....you tell me which way the Independents will go."

 

We'll see what happens.

 

This idea is certainly relevant with real GDP expected to rise 1.9% in 2018 along with 2.1% inflation — resulting in a 4% nominal growth according to the Congressional Budget Office. That is about half the 9.8% rate of earnings growth for the S&P 500 in the third quarter of 2017, according to FactSet.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2017/12/15/2018-earnings...


This one Counts leftist.....its who you and your team always trout out. The CBO!

Do you even know what REAL GDP is?

 

If the economy and the stock market keep doing as good as they have been people may not want to rock the boat

 

And there are contradictory predictions. As stated in your very own links, if you don't like politifact. We'll have to wait and see. Your post was too definitive.

 

I agree there is a greater amount of anti Trump than pro Democrat, but unfortunately that does dictate a lot of US politics. Again, I am not surprised, US politics are cyclical, and when one party has too much reign and abuses it, this is the natural order.

 

Yeah we will. That's what you said in 2012 and 2016. But then you know how well I did without those polls.



Rural America’s Red Wall: Democratic 2018 Midterm Plans Just Took Another Hit.....


Bloomberg: Trump Will Win Reelection


Gamblers see solid Trump re-election in 2020, Kanye last on list.....

Btw Pero.....you know Repubs have been running grassroots since 2010, Right.

Here is what I know.....Repubs will be talking about the Demos Soft Coup. Resistance in trying to invalidate Trumps voters and the influence of the Lame Stream media.

 

Looking at the polls, I tend to agree that the Democrats have a shot at retaking the House for the simple reason "all politics are local".

Also according to polls, the Republicans stand to make gains in the Senate. Obviously the WH will remain Republican until January 2021.

Agreed about the Independents. At 40% of the voting public, they are, indeed, the "swing group" that determines elections.

 

Trump cannot change what he is, so he will keep doing what he does - scare the American people.

 

Agreed that politics (all, not just US) are cyclical, but those swings take a generation or three.

Disagreed that anti-this or anti-that sentiment doesn't determine politics since the mood of the voting American public does, indeed, dictate US politics.

 

Agreed on Trump, disagreed on your perception. Trump is a spoiled billionaire who has spent up to 7 decades surrounding himself with sycophants. He's used to getting his way regardless of how stupid it may be. He's not alone in this. Michael Jackson did exactly the same thing. The difference, of course, is that Trump is President. The Left Wing should focus less on bitching and whining about Trump and focus more on running good, honest candidates who actually serve the working public.