I hear these wonderful stories about how various alternatives to fossil fuel are ramping up, led by solar and wind and even nuclear. Well it's true, the percentage increases appear quite impressive. You see charts like this http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2013/update117 You begin to think maybe we're going to get over the hump on this global warming challenge. And then you get slapped by an expert projection of our energy output to 2040 and you feel it's all fools gold. Right along with alternatives, fossil fuel is heading upward too. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/more_highlights.cfm Is there any light at the end of the tunnel? I don't see it short of some major population drop.
In the world we have trillions of machines which require fossil fuels and generate pollution. We have new technologies like electric, hybrid-electric, hydrogen, etc. but they don't resonate with the masses and are not affordable to the masses. What's the chance of an alternative non-fossil fuel technology that will replace jet engines, military tank engines, farm equipment, automobiles, construction equipment engines, billions of lawnmowers and weedwhackers, etc.? And even if a new type of engine/propulsion was available, like hydrogen, to convert trillions of machines might take 100 or more years...and this assumes we could even afford the conversion. Then we have studies that suggest we can run out of oil in 50/60 years. If gasoline/diesel prices climbed to $5-$6/gallon in the next year, or perhaps higher due to an oil crisis, this pretty much renders the 50/60 years of oil supply as moot. Transportation comes to a halt, inflation runs rampant, economies crash and these are the best things that can happen. Of course my comments above are open to challenge, but place any sensible number you like when oil might run out or no longer be affordable, and any number you like when trillions of machines around the world can be converted to new and different technology (which does not exist today), and I suspect your answer will be similar to mine...which is sooner than later the (*)(*)(*)(*) is going to hit the fan! The consumption of affordable fossil fuels does not sync up with the conversion to new technologies, therefore, we've got some 'esplaining' to do. Before the worst effects of these trends happen, we will already have an economic crisis. The person or company who can develop a non-fossil fuel, that will seamlessly work in the existing trillions of machines, will literally rule the Earth...
Yes, but those are pretty stupid studies OMOF. Nah. Enough of the scare mongering, holy cow OMOF what are you, hooked up to an IV dripping really bad stories into your bloodstream? As long as you ignore the transition already in progress maybe, but not everyone here is jumping on the fear bandwagon when it comes to how we handle our transport and whatnot.
The world population is forecasted to be 9 billion by 2050 and the US 400 million. Must of the world today is industrializing and more will do so tomorrow...which means increased demand not only from population growth but also from industrializing. It is impossible to know for sure the world's oil reserves because of technology to extract and associated costs to the consumer. It is also impossible to guess the geo-political issues as they pertain to oil-rich nations. EIA says world proved crude oil reserves are about 1.5 trillion barrels. EIA says world consumption is about 89 million barrels per day. If we divide 1.5 trillion by 89 million we get 16,853 days divided by 365 equals 46 years of supply. But we know consumption will increase so the oil supply is some quantity much less than 46 years...and you call this a stupid study? And do you actually believe the price of oil will remain the same...as supplies lower and demand increases prices will increase. I'm sure it's quite stupid to you, but what happens to the US economy when gasoline hits $5/gallon, $6/gallon or higher? Well since oil is woven into the fabric of society, top to bottom, just little ole $5/gallon negatively effects the economy. In the US we demand our personal cars and gas toys but in most places around the world this is not the case...which means other nations and people can more easily tolerate $5/gallon and higher fuel prices than we can in the US. There is not a transition or technology in place that can move fast enough to head off the impending oil crisis in the US. This topic and it's discussion is not about fear...it's about reality...
I keep hearing that higher gas prices will reduce use, and speed CO2 neutral sources of energy. Has anyone heard of Europe? Europe was paying $3 a gallon in 1968, when I was pay $0.24. Have they stopped driving, no. They did convert to diesel, amnd for years have enjoyed better mileage than state of the art hybrids (side question, why aren't hybrids based on diesel or natural gas to lower CO2 per mile?). Has Europe embraced (read subsidized) CO2 neutral sources of energy, to a much greater degree than the US. But that only slowed the growth of fossil fuels. Alternatives, despite all the subsidies, have not reduced energy use. Because Europe doesn't have Kansas and Nebraska, there is far less suburban sprawl. Mass transit makes sense in Paris, the "greater" Los Angeles are, not even close. (but then Paris doesn't have earthquakes, allowing tall buildings). Slashing energy use by raising prices, in a country built on low energy cost, won't (hasn't) change behavior, just anger at government.
No, it does not necessarily mean increased demand, because the assumption there is that behavior will not CHANGE. Economic theory tries to quantify how such behavior changes, but the key point is…IT DOES. Therefore you simply cannot extrapolate what is going on now, to what can happen in the future, without accounting for these changes. No…but what you've just referenced ISN'T a study, it is some information you do no understand underpinning a bad assumption on your part. We can discuss all of this, but we warned, I'm a ringer. We've discussed this previously. And for your information, your reference, EIA, has already built those assumptions into their domestic models going forward. Figure 5 should cover your fears pretty well. Covers crude prices to well above the 2008 price spike in some cases. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/early_prices.cfm Just as it did when gasoline went from $0.50/gal to the current $3/gal. And yet you and I are still here…and so are the cars…and so is the economy…and so are the planes… Other places in the world are already handling $9/gal…like Europe. Fortunately, here in America we are heading towards our own solutions. Natural gas fueled UPS trucks being the one I noticed just last week. Fortunately, there are plenty of all kinds of fossil fuels, oil just being one of the more noticeable. What impending crisis? You mean like the gasoline scares in the US in 1916 and 1918? The fear of running out enumerated by the Secretary of Interior in 1943? Claims of running out by Jimmy Carter in 1977? This has been going on for some time OMOF, and you are hardly the first, but it does beg the question, why is your claim any different? Certainly the technologies are ALREADY being employed…apparently well in advance of this "always around the corner" crisis, and this is a GOOD thing. I recommend going electric myself, but I've test driven two diesels in the last week…and boy oh boy…I could go that route for road trips.
Of all the solutions, only one makes any sense to me. Grow algae, squeeze out the oil, run it through refineries and crack it into diesel and gasoline, no change to the infrastructure as it is. Planes don't need to figure out how to run off batteries (wonder what a planes recharge time would be????) Take the algae, minus the oil, dry it and run it through the coal fired pants (which run powdered coal), minor change in infrastructure. Grow extra algae, squeeze out the oil, and pump it back into empty oil wells, only change in infrastructure is reversing the pumps. Every pound of CO2 extracted to make that excess oil is "sequestered" in readily accessible oil wells (when global cooling arrives, we can make extra CO2). Algae isn't currently very efficient as an oil producer, so most of it will be used in coal fired plants, the oil will merely augment world reserves. But, breakthroughs are happening all the time: http://www.sciencecodex.com/scripps...er_breakthrough_for_biofuel_production-123464
Utility power loses ~55% of the raw energy getting to the house, add the inefficiencies in an electric car, you are below the efficiency of a turbo diesel car ~40+%. High boost (45PSI), like big rigs get to 55%. A high boost turbo diesel has turbo lag, use that engine in a hybrid, and let the batteries provide power during that lag. Drives like a normal car, and mileage will go well above 75MPG.
The idea that you believe we can add another 2 billion people to Earth, along with industrialization of billions of people in developing nations, and NOT increase demand of fossil fuels, kind of invalidates everything you say. I fully understand that change happens, but I also know in our society and the world, change does not usually happen until it is forced...and by this time people are already feeling the pain. Gasoline prices can slowly creep up and most people will believe they will eventually come back down...meaning little to no behavioral change. Once they see prices continuing to increase, and feel more pain, change will take place. Obviously you cannot fathom what happens when gasoline hits $5/gallon or higher. You say nothing will happen because we had no problem going from $.50/gallon to $3/gallon as if today's society and economy is exactly like it was 40 years ago...and it isn't. I will stick to my belief that we are flirting with disaster when the price of oil/gasoline reaches a point which negatively effects the economy. I don't care what happened in the past since the future is not the past...the future in our world today will bring different problems. If we ignore or brush off these potential events...this is foolishness. We don't need to overreact but we need to understand ALL potential and be prepared for anything that causes too much pain...
Depends on the amount coming in from the panels on my garage roof I imagine. Distributed generation is another one of those ideas to save plenty of power. Give me solar panels or give me death! Can't find any turbo diesel hybrids. Drove a hybrid VW but it was a gas engine. I was just happy with diesels in general, a Passat in particular.
That statement strikes me as a fundamental misunderstanding of what I said then. Certainly increasing efficiency can balance against increased population without requiring an increase in absolute volumes of fuels used. America did it between the 70's and nowadays, creating a per capita decrease in fuels of something like 40%. In other words, an American today uses 40% less crude oil than the same America did during the 70's. And we are now using less crude oil than at any time since then, with millions more cars and people. There is no requirement to be inefficient, or stupid, about how we use fossil fuels. There is just so MUCH of the stuff that we can be, but it certainly isn't written in the Constitution or something that we must. Economists call that price. And it works just as you've described, and leads to changes in behavior, both personal and corporate. And this is GOOD. I have just handed you the mechanism for how we can have more people, but use less fuels overall! Touchdown! Obviously I've already PAID that much. For thousands of miles of road trips as a matter of fact. So not only can I fathom it, I've already DONE it. Maybe you should, then you won't worry about it so much. Agreed. And I've already been doing it for years….how about you? Insulate the house, move close to work, drive an EV, jack the gasoline prices to $9/gal and I'm not sure I would notice for two months, because it might take me that long to need a few gallons for my EV. An EV really does free you from those little numbers always bouncing around down at the local extortion store.
I think when things hit the skids it will be coming at us from all sides. One gasping bird in the coal mine indicating something - is Keynesian stimulus isn't what it used to be, a big growth booster. Maybe Mother Earth is kicking back. http://www.commondreams.org/view/2013/11/21-4
When the price of oil/gasoline increases to a level in which it negatively effects the economy, causes inflation, and people must change their consumption habits, whenever this might happen, is going to be a dark day for the economy. Don't know if this will happen due to geopolitical issues, wars, oil shortages, etc. but no matter the myriad potential causes, we will experience a negative effect. How each individual is situated in their life will define the amount of pain they must endure in the short and long term. Tens of millions living pay-check to pay-check and no-check to no-check will feel it first. 5% of Americans are proactive and take action to create change while the other 95% wait until they are forced to accept change. I'm a farmer and fuel costs are the 3rd highest cost item for us after labor and materials...if we cannot increase our prices of products then we go out of business...
Sorry big guy. Already happened. Happened to me and the country in the 70s, happened in the opposite direction in the 80's, happened again to me and country in 2008. Where were you when all this was going on, in a cave somewhere? Man, I sold my SUV!! Bought an EV. Now….doesn't matter as much…and I gotta say, living with nearly no gasoline instead of bunches of it was tough at first, but I'm pretty happy….did you mean that lots of folks will be happy when the economics of gasoline prices force them to make the right choice, the eco-choice, the RIGHTEOUS choice?! Already have, right? 2008. July to be exact. It was HORRIFYING!! And what happened next? People changed behavior, bought less, and the price CRASHED. Economics is funny that way. Then increase your prices. Once upon a time I was a consultant, and charged money to the oil companies to drill their wells for them. When I had to do this in Canada, where gasoline was much more expensive, I was forced to charge them more for my mileage to get to and from the rigs. I recommend you do the same. If you cannot because others do not, then it is recommended you become as efficient as they are, so you don't NEED to raise your prices. The market can be a cruel task mistress, but it works in predictable ways.
Tightening the belt can be good for the character no doubt. I lived off tuna jerky pretty much during one of my sailing journeys when things got dicey and I couldn't stay on schedule. It wasn't that bad and I picked up a few other survival talents. The problem is whatever the price fluctuations what we do or purchase is subsidized in some form or another. If we were to pay the real cost of gasoline it would probably be in the neighborhood of 15-20 dollars a gallon. I doubt our society could sustain that although I might be willing to give it a try. Hmmmm Mad Max maybe. My point from the thread is we play at our little environmental virtues but Mother Nature is not playing ex. Our efforts to eliminate fossil fuel are not real. The free market as a panacea is trying to assert something that doesn't in a serious way exist. We are a culture with all that implies and that culture is going to have to change in a lot of serious ways or we are going off the cliff as a species.
Define real. Certainly the windmills in Kansas are real, the solar panels on my roof dumping watt/hours into my car and grid are real, hydroelectric is real and quite useful, but you said "efforts" aren't real. Seems to me like the millions and billions spent on non-fossil fuels is pretty substantial, and involves substantial effort as well. We've been going off the cliff as a species since the days of Malthus. At least. But we just…can't…seem…to get there.
All of them do. History is wonderful that way…take an idea…expensive gasoline means some sort of Doom…and then go look at what happened when gasoline prices increased in the past, and see if Doom happened. You are just cranky that it didn't. During the oil panic of 1916, the price of Oklahoma crude quadrupled. Has your standard of living been bothered by that particular QUADRUPLING? And if not, then why would you think anything different would happen if the price of gasoline just doubled? Which it has ALREADY done more than, since the 70's? You can have your own conclusions, but not your own facts.
Taking a cup of water out of a lake depletes the lake. Want to call that real, be my guest. A rich variety of people and species have been wasted by our efforts. Can't name the date of the final KO but we appear to be on our way.
Our energy use with variations has continued to go up. http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl...a=X&ei=qQWUUsL5IITgoATg4IL4Aw&ved=0CDcQ9QEwAg And the percent of that use massively still favors fossil fuel. http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl...a=X&ei=qQWUUsL5IITgoATg4IL4Aw&ved=0CDkQ9QEwAw Looks like not too much fossil fuel change projected to 2035 but energy use will likely rise. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4690 How about a longer term world perspective. http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl...a=X&ei=MA2UUufhBMj1oASl9oK4DA&ved=0CDUQ9QEwAg
There have been prediction of oil depletion ever since Col. Drake struck oil in Titusville. 55% is not credible. 50% is the ideal Carnot cycle max. Big truck diesels are about 38-40% efficient. Stationary engines gain another 4-5%.
I remember when we were running out of oil 40 years ago. There are now more proven oil reserves than there were then. We keep finding oil faster than we use it so I'm just not that concerned.
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/The-World-is-Suffering-from-High-Priced-Fuel-Syndrome.html http://www.studymode.com/essays/Impact-Of-High-Fuel-Prices-223234.html http://www.esa.doc.gov/Reports/macr...ial-effects-higher-oil-and-natural-gas-prices https://algosandblues.wordpress.com/2011/01/17/the-economic-impact-of-higher-oil-prices/
I call it real because you cannot argue principle in this case, but only degree. The good news about that cup of water is that I can, should I so choose, also install a 5000HP frack pumper hooked to 18" plastic pipe dropped into that lake. Currently, humans are not choosing to access our "lake water" at that rate because it is just SO damn easy to get our water from somewhere else. A rich variety of people and species have been wasted since the day the first smart chimpanzee picked up a stick and used it to prod a bee nest to get some honey. As far as a final KO please .10 minutes after that first chimpanzee figured out the stick trick another came up behind him and proclaimed the end of the world, the wild abandon with which chimpanzees could now access honey obviously foretelling the demise of the species.
You also might refer to it as "the virtue of waste", the concept spelled out pretty well in a book of the same name. The amount of energy it takes to create say a laser is MONSTROUS, yet the value of the laser is very high indeed, and in effect REQUIRES a bunch of embodied energy to do what it does, which is quite valuable. So sure we use more energy. GOOD. We SHOULD. Spent my life working in and around the oil and gas industry, can't say I mind much. But it is also important to understand WHY we continue to use so much. Because we CHOOSE to. Well most do, because it is easy and convenient and cheap. Some of us are gizmo guys and enjoy the hybrids and EVs and solar panels and such, but we know we are pioneers in the human future of generating our power from somewhere else! Oil is obsolete. It just doesn't know it yet. Probably. Energy is good, and as long as we waste all of that being used for nothing more than to cause skin cancer in sun lovers, we have more to harness for sure! I already have one of those. Which is why I know that oil is obsolete.
