Global Impending Economic Doom Thread.

First, decoupling with the US economy is occurring. Second, its the very nature of the US economy that means traditional problems are avoided (e.g. currency correction for a trade imbalance). Third, you have no means to distinguish between the business cycle and crisis. You haven't bothered with any credible economics (e.g. Sherman, who traces 70s/80s economic turmoil to the impact of oligopoly on the risks of stagflation)

 

Clearly you aren't caught up on the international markets or the United States market economy weekly, you're obviously not looking at the charts being provided in this thread.

You're one of those economic theorists I take it that isn't capable of handling technical analysis. One would think an intelligent economic theorist can do both, theorizing and philosophizing is great to be sure but without data is utterly useless.

 

If you think you can understand the economy through charts, your lack of economic comprehension is complete.

 

Yeah, it's not like economics has anything to do with mathematics, figures, measurements, statistics, forecasts, and numbers, silly me.....

 

I have already tried to educate you on this. Why refer to crisis theory? It provides an understanding of how crisis develops. And why is it important to apply it to the data? To avoid spurious conclusion. To ensure relevant modelling, hypothesis test and risk analysis.

You spew charts without insight or reason. It is alien to sound economic comment.

 

You sound more and more like a communist every time I speak with you.

 

I already know you struggle with insight. I've merely referred to the bleedin obvious. Economics isn't data mining. Data requires context. Keynes didnt just bung a few graphs together and pretend knowledge. Friedman didn't reject bastardised Keynesianism by just repeating the original Phillips Curve historical approach etc etc etc.

Theory gives that context. That of course can be highly technical, such as complexity economics and modelling of the economy as if it was an ecosystem. However, that complexity just further advertises the stupidity of giving data without economic context.

 

Marxism blah, blah, blah, and blah.

 

No mention of Marxism in that post. You continue to struggle with the basics.

 

To be fair, just typing blah is arguably a higher quality post than providing a graph without context.

Well done!

 

Just checked Science Direct and there are 62 articles with the keywords blah and economics. Defo onto something here

 

I guess it depends upon what you call a crisis

And also whether a pre crisis situation is handled in a way that mitigates further deterioration
Or whether actions exacerbate the situation
Both have happened

The issue that I was raising was that the mitigation strategies have already been exhausted and are largely unavailable. Where as the exacerbation strategies seem increasingly attractive to policy makers who see the international economy as a zero sum game where everyone is looking to grab the most for themselves

Oh my.... the approach that advocates do nothing hoping for a natural recovery
Sort of like the arguement that humans can do anything at all to the earths environment because the earth itself will survive

Oh joy... we should not mind getting ****ed in order that organic market capitalism can flourish

Wow, who could resist a future with minimal labor bargaining power....
Oh wait, that sounds an awful lot like the situation under slavery
I mean, isn’t that the full maximum of your idealized world of zero labor bargaining power?

 

I am currently canning peaches as I type to prepare for the end...

 

I'm planning for a cabin in a mountain retreat somewhere where later I'll gather an army of men where we're going to burn stuff into the ground in the formation of a new state.

It's going to be pretty neat.

 

Anything part of a standard business cycle isn't one.

But you've made that up. Macro policies aren't just one shot options. Nothing has changed. Crisis is rare and the government still have the armoury needed to minimise the long term damage. Indeed, if anything, they are in a better position. Macroeconomic understanding has improved. Acceptance of the likes of monetarism and supply side economics has been destroyed. Behavioural economic approaches have gone much further than Keynes and his animal spirits.

You've completely missed the point. It is the case that neoliberalism has increased volatility. It is also the case that right wing government guarantees long term economic ills (such as hysteresis unemployment). However, that doesn't necessarily matter to a discretionary government. Crisis is rare and efficient reaction to business cycle movements can often be ignored. See, for example, how austerity has been so aggressively applied (despite having no real economic rationale)

 

Seems to me a grey scale. There is no bright line where you can say it is one or the other. Also, every do called crisis starts small. And when it is small, I remember when lehman went bankrupt. The fed let it happen to “teach “ others a lesson. Moral hazard was the term of art. And no one thought it was a crisis. Mostly no one did much ... because it was not a crisis.... until it was a crisis.

Ok
Lets agree that lower interest rates are a common policy tool. Lets say that the policy tool has been used and interest rates are near zero. How do you now implement this policy tool in the face of a new recession/crisis?

Same question with regard to deficit spending. You can use govt spending to address a weak economy. But lets say you already are running a huge deficit going into the next crisis. What is your policy option?.

 

WW3 would be triggered by excess hostility of the USA in the South China Sea.

Or else it could be caused by US interference with Russia in Europe.

WW3 has nothing to do with economics. It is all about expansionism of China and Russia. We cannot stop them so there is no sense in our getting involved at all.

The USA should spend its resources developing North, Central, and South America and leave Asia to the Asians and Europe to the Europeans.

 

More infrastructure projects would have been nice in the USA rather than war in Iraq and Syria.

Afghanistan was unavoidable. We were hunting UBL there until Dubya got sidetracked on yellowcake.

 

It is too bad we went off the gold standard.

 

This is just inflation combined with monopolistic competition.

My own rent is around $1100.00 so not as bad as the rest.

 

The U.S. stock markets are a big Ponzi scheme.

 

Obviously China is cheating.

Only Trump gets this.

The other presidents were inept at it.