Global Warming and Wildfires

What is the climate sensitivity to CO2 ??

 

Didn't answer the question asked.

Let me delineate it further. Even if you assume Global Warming is the culprit, what specifically do you think that the Paris Accord did with US participation to stop wildfires that the US isn't already doing? Paris had voluntary reductions with no penalties for not meeting them. The Kyoto Protocol had binding emissions reductions and while the US did not sign it, why is Paris so critical? Kyoto fell apart. All Paris does is have fewer teeth and requires developed countries to send money to crapholes. There is zero incentive whatsoever to reduce emissions among the world's largest polluters.

 

As they say, you can fantasize about anything you wish. And be honest at least with yourself, the projections of accelerated warming are just that. Fantastical aberrations of statistical messaging. The basic conversation though is still the same. There have been less observed fires. We cannot have a considered conversation about their intensity since we have no way to compare empiric examples to modern examples, nor do we have substantive measuring to demonstrate extent of fires in any real way. And we're still left with this unanswered observation that the Forest Service et al are the primary causal factor in creating the environment for fires in the first place. So, fantasize all you want about this as yet unrealized warmth, and ignore the reality slapping you on the cheek. It doesn't change the facts in this conversation.

 

Global temperatures are up, which extends the dry season. Wildfire acreage is way up, with 2014 and 2015 both record years. There is no question that extending the dry season can cause more wildfires. The only question is the effect of Climate Change. Per the experts, we have warmed 0.4 to 0.8 deg C. Acreage is the telling statistic, because it shows the devastation of the wildfires - the fact that they cannot be contained, often for weeks at a time.

I live in the West. We see this all the time. Extend those dry and windy conditions for a longer season, and YES, there will be more acreage burned.

 

Leave millions of acres of dead lodge pole pines in the ground and refuse to allow folks to cut them out. Yes, the US Forest Service is doing a bang up job manufacturing the extent of the fires.


Would you agree this is at least a contributing factor? If not, why?

 

Absolutely, during extreme droughts, however, a live tree will go up in flames almost as quickly. The year we had the big Colorado Springs Walden Canyon fire, from the lower elevations, you could look up, and see the live trees ignite, one after another. Would you agree that, if the hot, dry, windy season is extended, that this would also be a contributing factor?

There are many contributing factors. I still see people throw cigarettes out their car windows, here in Colorado.

 

We need to promote grazing. The City of Laguna Beach, California found renting goats cheaper than Mexicans for creating fire breaks.

And they don't do controlled burns to make fire breaks anymore.

The loss of grazing animals and the lack of old time fire control by preventative fire breaks may influence your stats.

Moi
Calling Mr. Bundy,
Please graze more.

r > g

Across an immense, unguarded, ethereal border, Canadians, cool and unsympathetic,
regard our America with envious eyes and slowly and surely draw their plans against us.​

 

Yes, there are many variables. Here in Colorado, wildfire prevention is a very hot topic, with lots of available information on preventative measures.

 

I grew up in the Hollywood Hills off Barham Blvd, just up the hill from Beautiful Downtown Burbank. 1954 - 1964. In the early years there were preventative burns and yes, sometime they went out of control. Then they stopped doing them and bigger fires occur near people.

I think it was in the 80's I witnessed the Laguna Beach - Irvine fire cresting the hills and moving down towards Moi.
To get me it would have to cross a few highways and burn down Univ. of Calif. Irvine first. So I watched from my back porch while some of my neighbors were seriously packing up and leaving. To be near such a fire and feel the wind sucking in the air by the ground is amazing. The nearest I got was a huge bond fire of very dry brush.

BTW this last heat wave in California, a news crew got a side walk temperature of xxxF,
I do not believe any part of nature's Earth has demonstrated such a warming in a heat wave.
And the air temperature certainly was not xxxF! More like 115F - 120F.
Developing more Earth neutral construction materials is a topic not discussed.
Consider a heat sink. How long that xxxF sidewalk is going to be radiating heat to a cooler surrounding.
xxx because I think my memory went faulty and the point stands. Trying to "search" hot sidewalk temperatures to verify my number, I could not find one sidewalk temperature nor asphalt. I did find pet's feet were getting burned.

BTW2 - They use to scatter rye grass seed before the first rain and we did not experience the huge mud slides we see today.



Moi

r > g

Across an immense, unguarded, ethereal border, Canadians, cool and unsympathetic,
regard our America with envious eyes and slowly and surely draw their plans against us.​

Edit in: We did an experiment with a heat gun when the air temperature outside was 86°F. The sidewalk registered at 100°F in direct sun; The road at 109°F and black asphalt at 120°F. The grass in the shade was 85°F.
http://wrbl.com/2017/06/28/how-hot-is-too-hot-to-walk-your-dog/
Talk up Earth Neutral construction materials.
Make it an issue!&!

​

 

Climate Change Fuels California Fires...

Climate Change Fuels California Fires
September 12, 2018 — California has experienced record heat waves and catastrophic fires in recent years, and climate experts say it is likely to get worse.

 

Well let's begin at the beginning. You blame Trump for backing out of the Paris Accord. Here's a chart that may interest you.



Now let's go to your main point after you got done with your Trump bashing rant.

"Wildfires in the western United States have been increasing in frequency and duration since the mid-1980s,"

What do you suppose started happening around this time? I'll clue you in. It was the beginning of the anti logging environmental movement largely pushed by the Sierra Club and it's no logging policy of "not one more tree". They openly stated they would rather see a forest burned than logged and the old adage of "be careful what you wish for you just might get it" comes into play here. This culminated in the Clinton era when he with the stroke of a pen reduced the cut in federal lands by 70%. You guys did this to our forest and now you want to blame it on Trump and your religion of AGW. Whatever floats your boat as they say but don't expect people with a brain to climb on board.

 

The European forest managers have been working on keeping their forests from burning down for centuries. Somehow, our Sierra group folks just thought that gosh durn it, they know better, and so, they tried to abolish forest management in every functional way. If you want to point fingers, point at the environmentalists themselves.

 

Here's the history on this in America.

Sierra Club zeroes in on logging
Paul Larmer May 27, 1996From the print edition
By a 2-to-1 margin, Sierra Club members approved a new policy calling for no commercial logging on public lands.

https://www.hcn.org/issues/60/1875

 

Logging was historically very independent. Unlikely to be willing to be wrapped up in things like unionization or willing to go through the protected licensing function democrats live for. So, liberals took them on in courts under the auspice of environmentalism because the loggers weren't playing ball with democratic party agencies like the Teamsters, or afl/cio...

 

I never thought of that and you may have a point. I spent my entire working life in the logging industry and remember well the random attempts by unions to "organize" us. We in mass tool them to go **** themselves. Guess they showed us huh.