Hajj Qasem and his key disciple Muhandis killed

Discussion in 'Latest US & World News' started by Poohbear, Jan 3, 2020.

  1. Poohbear

    Poohbear Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So far, so good. Trump got two major terrorists in one strike.
    And with Iran shooting down a commercial airliner the whole
    Iranian govt is on the brink of overthrow. Who would have
    thought.
    If Iran collapsed and had a civilian democratic government
    over this, would anyone give Trump any credit? No.
     
  2. Seth Bullock

    Seth Bullock Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I don't think so AN. Old saying ...

    "The reasons why you're not going to do anything are fear and common sense."

    The Iranians aren't totally stupid. They pushed the envelope. They tested the limits. And now they know. When Trump says they've got 52 targets picked, they've got 52 targets picked, and the Iranians know he's serious.
     
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  3. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So you are clapping the US boasting that it is going to commit war crimes. Is there any point in any further discussion. You are basically boasting that the United States will commit war crimes. Clearly there is no meeting point for people who believe this. It is a red line for most people of the world.
     
  4. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    I underestimated that scenario. In part, because I anticipated both China and Russia to go full-tilt(I've posted a few times of my geopolitical theory of an Eastern Axis of China-Russia-Iran(and proxy State North Korea.). The assertive rhetoric from those other nations had implied as such.

    But for now, it would appear that the leaders of those other countries have decided(for various reasons of their own) not to back Iran in an engagement of US armed forces. I still think it's a dynamic, fluid situation and that "pernament peace" on earth, as much as we long for it, might not be the reality.
     
  5. Seth Bullock

    Seth Bullock Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'm not so naive as to think we're on the verge of peace on earth, but I think the Iranians must realize they are up against a president who should not be trifled with. For example, if Iran were to sponsor some attack on Americans somewhere, causing death and injury, we could put Iran out of the oil business for years to come in a matter of hours without risking a single American service member. I spoke with a former Navy pilot the other day who said we could sink Iran's navy in a matter of hours. We could severely damage their nuclear facilities.

    The Soleimani killing was a statement, and it was a warning, and it was a lesson about this President.

    And I think this is why Iran virtually called us up on the phone to tell us ahead of time that they were going to shoot missiles at our bases in Iraq. (They notified Iraqi officials, who notified us.)

    We'll see what happens, but I have a feeling that fear and common sense are going to guide them for the time being - at least as far as attacking our troops or our personnel.
     
  6. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    I suggest you speak to someone with a better understanding of Iran's capabilities, tactics, and the consequences to the US navy of a war with Iran. People of much higher rank in the US military. That is why US threats against Iran don't work, not because Iran lacks common sense.

    The author of this article is:
    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/could-iran-win-naval-war-against-america-111341
    Could Iran Win a Naval War Against America?

    I can countless other articles, which despite the home bias and spin, will give you enough of a clue. But the ultimate reality is captured in this headline:
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/30/the-u-s-navy-isnt-ready-to-take-on-iran/
    The U.S. Navy Isn’t Ready to Take On Iran
    That’s why, for now, tough talk may remain just that.
    BY MICHAEL MORAN | SEPTEMBER 30, 2019, 3:10 PM
     
  7. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    Two words: Aerial Bombardment. I'm not fighting Iran ship-to-ship. I'll use the same bunker-busting missiles and bombs and blow the ships to smitthereens.

    If a war comes between the US-Iran, US victory will be had in the air, not the sea.
     
  8. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    The effectiveness of air power to do damage to actual, protected, military sites is hugely exaggerated in American minds. The same way Iran's missile barrage on the US base in Iraq, once the US had advance notice and could protect its troops, didn't cause as much damage to protected US soldiers despite the fact that each of those missiles carried warheads between 1/2 to to 1 ton depending on the precise missile used and hit their target with precision, air power used by the US (e.g., to take out Saddam's Scuds, to take out Saddam and his generals, to take out even much of his more exposed military machine), used by the Israelis against Hezbollah, by the Saudis against the Houthis, hasn't done much more than cause psychological warfare and vandalism, causing enormous damage to unprotected facilities and infrastructure but not military targets.

    The real point in a war against Iran isn't that the US will not be able to cause damage through air power, but it wouldn't be able to stop Iran from raining missiles on US and allied bases and forces throughout the region, as well as doing other things to sink ships (both using mini-subs and torpedoes, as well as mines, along with its onshore missiles) and close the straight of Hormuz. All of that means that the US, despite common misconceptions, isn't in a position to dictate things to Iran through threats. Of course, if Iran takes it far enough for the US to be willing to bite the bullet and suffer massive losses and damages to its allies and more in the region, and goes to war against Iran, it will definitely be able to inflict irreparable damage to Iran. But there is a huge difference between Iran doing things which are meant to stop US hegemony in the region while proving its capabilities to do more, and Iran doing something that would rally the US to go to war against Iran regardless of costs. A war in the first scenario would be a 'war of choice" and only a fool would choose war with Iran given the cost. In the second scenario, war with Iran would become a political and geopolitical necessity.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
  9. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    You will lose because the battle ground will be Iran, end of story.
     
  10. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    Besides Iran, the battleground will be:
    -- All countries which host US bases in the region, specifically, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Jordan, and some others.
    -- the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, the Arabian Sea, and the Red Sea all the way to the Suez Canal.
    -- And, of course, Israel.

    And the US itself will not be fully immune from the consequences of war with Iran. Besides cyber warfare, Iran has long range cruise missiles which can be fired from vessels and airplanes operating within 2-3 thousand kilometers of the US mainland.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
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  11. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That is the big difference and certainly makes it much more costly to Iran than to the US....but certainly from my reading the cost to the Americans and others in the region, yourselves included is likely to be too much for them to bare. Americans and Israel like to fight wars where they kill but are not killed. A war with Iran will result in masses of deaths to the Americans and most likely the Israelis. In addition from what I have read it will not be possible to 'win' without ground troops. In Iran they will not be fighting like they did in Iraq. They will not fight the US's superior power along conventional lines. They will use their advantages - the fact that they know the land and they will fight an Asymmetrical war. Suggestions are this could last decades and would itself result in planeloads of Americans going home in body bags just like in Vietnam - that is after the planeloads from the first fight. I can't see really anyone winning such a war - it will in any case be stopped because of the climate situation. 56% of Americans apparently did not agree with the murder of Soleimani. They are not going to want to see their young coming home in body bags week after week after week. That is what Iran has in its favour. It also will totally mess up the ME. Fine for CZ's wanting Armageddon but not good for anyone else living in the ME including yourselves. Learning to talk (genuinely) instead of fighting would be a big improvement. Israel may by accident have pushed itself into a situation where she has something to lose.
     
  12. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That is the other thing that people forget. Iran will not be alone in this fight.
     
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  13. Pag

    Pag Active Member

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    It's complicated they are happy and unhappy at the same time.
     
  14. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    Yes of course Iran will shoot its missiles and use its proxies, the only real damage it can do is destroy oil wells, still the battle ground between Iran and US will be Iran, its a war you cannot win and should avoid at all costs.
     
  15. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    Iran's missiles will do a lot more damage than you imagine. Just a small part of those missiles, fired with the US troops having advance notice and hidden in bunkers, caused enormous physical damage to the US bases in Iraq.

    In war time, US troops in the region will not be able to hide in bunkers nor would they have advance notice of where Iran will be hitting.

    Israel, on the other hand, will be leveled. Those who know what Iran is capable of doing, know this already. Including your own officials.
     
  16. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    If such a war breaks Iran will lose within 2-3 weeks, all this "Vietnam" talk could only be true if they stay there to "fix" its Gov, I don't think that will be the objective, I think the US will simply destroy its army and a few Nuke sites while at it,
    I also think Lebanon will try to avoid "mass deaths" in Israel, they don't want to go there while the US is fighting its ally, the US is the only thing that stops Israel "OP's"....
     
  17. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    Those soldiers wont be there....they'll be in Iran, you will lose because the US is big, strong, love their guns up to bizarre if not pervert....and....the battle ground is your country !
    Avoid it !!
    Yea......don't threat a whore with your dick......
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
  18. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    You can pretend as you wish, but what I mentioned is Iran's official position in terms of what it will do in case of war. And what Iran will be doing in a war, which will definitely not be like the one you imagine.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
  19. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    When that happens Iran will let all off. Iran has had decades to practice given that she has been threatened with destruction for decades. The attack on the Saud's oil fields was enough for them to approach Iran for de-escalation. I don't know what they are feeding you in Israel but what you are believing here is just propaganda to get people to accept war. Iran also has an incredible multidimensional air defence system. They are not stupid people.

    Gilos your own military know the situation. That is why they have always been against war with Iran when your politicians have been asking for it. Likewise I have read that the Pentagon is also against it. It is seen as a war that cannot be won. This is a fools war. The only people who will win are the Christian Zionists.
     
  20. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    Never said Iranians are stupid, in fact the restraint they proved after the hit prove they are very smart, still one cannot outsmart a bullet....
    IF there will be war (I don't want one for the record, you seems to think I do just for pointing the obvious victor) the US will win within 2 weeks or a month but it will win regardless of the damage Iran will succeed in doing.

    Iran vs. Israel ? sure, Iran wins, but that's not the case is it ?
     
  21. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    Is the Shaid reasoning taught to all Iranians ? you are willing to be destroyed as long as you mange to leave a mark on your rivals ? avoiding such a war will be best for your future generation, whatever you hoped the Nukes would get you - avoiding such a war will get much much more !
     
  22. K9Buck

    K9Buck Well-Known Member

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    Half (or more) of the Iranian people despise the Iranian regime. That is in stark contrast to Vietnam.

    And you're right, the Iranian military would suffer catastrophic losses and quickly. Their command and control centers, air force, navy, army, strategic sites, air-defense systems, arms factories, etc., etc., etc. would be annihilated within a week. We could then provide arms and ammunition to millions of Iranians who would be willing to overthrow the regime. It would take a direct intervention by Russia and/or China to keep the regime in power.

    Rest assured, Israel and the U.S. already have bombing plans in place and by priority as to which targets to take out first. No doubt Hezbollah and Hamas could launch a barrage of missiles into Israel, but then Israel would invade Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon and possibly even Syria. It would undoubtedly turn into a guerilla conflict, one that Hezbollah and Hamas, with Iran no longer able to ship them arms, would eventually lose. They certainly would NOT pose an existential threat to Israel. If that happens, the so-called "Palestinians" can once and for all forget about EVER again administering Gaza or the West Bank.

    For all of those reasons, Iran is NOT going to push the U.S., nor Israel into an all out war at least not intentionally. Their fear should be one of their proxies (Hezbollah) going too far and pushing things to a point from which all-out war is certain. If that happens, the Iranian regime will need Russia and/or China to risk WW3 with the U.S. to save them.

    Iran is in a VERY precarious position. The populace is speaking out and protesting. Their economy is in a shambles. They've been militarily humiliated. I presume Russia and China are advising them to be nice and lay low for a while and hope it all blows over.
     
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  23. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    The feed us that the Saudis felt the US left them alone, wont be the case if war breaks out.
     
  24. K9Buck

    K9Buck Well-Known Member

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    Iran wins? Not a chance in Hell.
     
  25. K9Buck

    K9Buck Well-Known Member

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    If the Iranian regime goes to war, it will take a MIRACLE for them to remain in power, let alone "win", which is not even remotely possible.
     

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