Hajj Qasem and his key disciple Muhandis killed

Discussion in 'Latest US & World News' started by Poohbear, Jan 3, 2020.

  1. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, they seem to be the only ones using their brains in this. I don't think it was necessarily restraint though of course Iran does not want war if it can be avoided. I think it was a lesson. Iran showed the US and Israel what she could do but did not kill. In this I notice Iran is doing everything she can to present herself as the one following International Law.

    I believed you were open to one having been made to believe you could do this and not suffer.
    Well this is not what military I have read believe. This seems to be what the American far right believe and it is based on arrogance and propaganda. When British Intelligence were asked to look into Iraq to see its danger to the West. They returned saying that they could not see much danger but that there was a significant danger from Iran. They were then told to go and create dangers from Iraq which would justify a war.

    Why do you think that after 12 years the UN with major world countries including the US came up with the JCPOA? it wasn't because it was a perfect answer but what it would have done was stop Iran from building nukes whilst giving a period in which better relations could be restored. Israel was claiming she was scared of Iran having nukes. If that had been what she had been scared of, this would have satisfied her. Clearly there were other things. Likewise with the CZ's of the US. They are after their Armageddon.

    You believe Iran wins versus Israel?...and nothing personal but Israel then wants Americans to die for Israel - and to be frank for Israel going against International law. Iran would be open to a decent conclusion. The ME has been for a couple of decades but Israel had not finished its land grab.

    I am aware that the American CZ's are of like mind and they have been working with Netanyhu since the idea of 2 states came in to make sure that did not happen and destroy what their bible said was going to happen.

    Gilos just look at the difference in military equipment that the Saud's have against Yemen. They thought with that they would be able to win in three months. Three or is it four years later and with all the death and destruction, they are not winning, though I believe since the attack on their oil refineries there has been some sort of cease fire. Having massive armaments does not mean you win wars. This has been shown time and again.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
  2. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    You have your view of what war with Iran would be like. And I have mine. Based on my view, the US will try to avoid going to war, simply because it would NOT look good for the US regardless of the costs to Iran (which will be substantial). At the end, however, there isn't any informed analysis which sees Iran's regime out of power or such a war ending in anything but a stalemate. A costly one for the US, its allies, the world economy -- and an even more costly one for Iran.

    As for war with Israel, this is how the Israelis sees the dynamic, as presented by Israel's former UN ambassador and one of their lobbyists in America. Iran's view is a lot more simple and straight forward: when there is a war with the US, Israel (seen as America's forward base in the region right now) will be among the first to go.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/israel-preparing-open-war/601285/
    The Coming Middle East Conflagration
    Israel is bracing itself for war with Iranian proxies, as Tehran escalates its provocations. But what will the United States do if conflict comes?
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
  3. K9Buck

    K9Buck Active Member

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    Of course they're trying to avoid going to war. Otherwise they could have responded militarily by attacking Iranian units IN Iran and used the attack on Iraqi bases as justification. You know who wants war even less? The Iranian regime.

    I think it's extraordinarily unlikely that all-out war breaks out between Iran and the U.S. or Israel. But if all-out war breaks out, make no mistake, the Iranian military will be crushed on the battlefield and the regime and their loyalists will be under siege until such time that they flee in exile or are captured/killed by U.S. special forces or, perhaps more likely, armed Iranian rebels.
     
  4. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    LOL Your delusions will make the Bay of Pigs look, in comparison, like a great success for America!
     
  5. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    I should add the following, at least for those who want to be exposed to how people on the other side of the fence see things:

    From Iran's perspective, even a direct attack against US bases which ends up causing a dozen or more US casualties (and I will even accept the US version that there were no US casualties), if in retaliation for something like America's assassination of General Soleimani, will ultimately not lead to an all out war. There would be a substantial chance of some form of American retaliation or military action against Iran if the US casualties are significant (even that would be 50/50), but the US would then work to dial down the rhetoric and seek to find a way out before Iran fully lashes out.

    But, from Iran's perspective again, a serious Iranian attack against Israel would lead to war with the US. Even many of the Democrats in Congress would feel compelled by domestic pressures and given the influence of the pro Israel lobby in the US, to join the chorus from the war party. And a war would become unavoidable as a consequence. As such, attacking Israel (while among Iran's first measures in case of war with the US) will be among Iran's last as long as Iran hopes an all out war can be avoided.

    That said, while the 'own goal' Iran scored because of an incident which is not unique to Iran (as though America hasn't had its own friendly fire incidents or as if it wasn't the US that shot down an Iranian passenger plane, mistaking it not for a cruise missile which would be similar to a passenger airliner, but an F-14 fighter!) complicates predicting the future trajectory of some of the things at issue, absent this incident, I would not have been surprised if a drone one day took out Netanyahu as he appeared somewhere in public. / While there will be much easier targets among the US officials who were pushing Trump for this stupid action, and some of them will still need worry about the issue next time they come to this region, none would have been as worthy of such a strike as Netanyahu himself. As opposed to attacking Israel more broadly, simply taking out Netanyahu might not have been enough to push the anti-war front in the US to become in favor of war.

    Again, in case some people imagine Iran couldn't have drones fly over ans assassinate some official in the region, maybe this video will help you get a glimpse of reality. And this is just one of the myriad of different models and classes of Iranian drones capable of doing the job, namely the Shahed 129.

    Incidentally, Americans should really ask why their drones cost so much more than Iran's? Otherwise, Iran's drones are very good: battle tested and proven in many different theaters. The video below shows them attacking ISIS positions in Iraq and Syria.

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    I hope they continue with the same line, no offense but at the end of it is withdrawing from the Nuke project.

    I see the best in everything that's coming :)

    First of all its not a national pride thing to say America will win its just a logical assumption, like I said before just the fact the war will wage on Iranian land and not American land is enough, how many scratches the US will have after will not change the outcome.


    One on One I think Iran wins, but we do have a very big and aggressive brother and at this moment Iran manged to piss him off without us included.
    I don't know this Israel who wants Americans dead for it, we are allies and we share enemies, I fought in Lebanon and didn't see one American soldier, I did fight with other Lebanese against Hizbi thou..
    I would say its not the same but it depends on what the objectives of the war will be, Iran wants Americans off the ME, what will the US want ? regime change or just to mess them up and destroy a few sites.
     
  7. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps you should attack any target in Israel with a drone first and then make plans on taking out Bibi or Dimona "Textile Factory" or any other strategic target,
    BTW, Bibi is not like Solimani, he got nothing others dont have..
     
  8. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    Its not that simple for you....
    Sure the Trump's -US will not declare formal war but the sanctions continue and it seems so does public unrest, fighting Iran proxies will go on and probably raise a level - there will be many temptations for Iran to attack US and declare war, the best Iran can do IMO is lay waaaay low and wait for a Democratic president...
    On Israel side, we have no conquest plans for Lebanon so with them it will be just destruction till the UN interferes, Gaza and the WB on the other hand I dont know, I can see a way Israel might actually benefit from such an all out war.
     
  9. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Or you.
     
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  10. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    Democrats, Europeans, ..., none of that changes the main dynamics. As long as the 'war party' in the US is after "implosion" in Iran, the chances are this all ends in a war ultimately. The difference between Trump and Hilary on this issue was one of tactics. Trump decided he would go it alone and force the Europeans to join his side. Hilary would have worked with the Europeans instead. One tore up the JCPOA openly. The other would have done it effectively but without admitting what they were doing.

    As for Iran first trying to attack something else in Israel with a drone, you have a point. I mentioned taking out Netanyahu with a drone would be difficult as Israel is basically like a well protected base, but its not impossible if Iran put enough focus and attention on the project. There are, to be sure, much easier targets who visit elsewhere in the region in places like Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, even Iraq et al. But I was just trying to say what is obvious to me, even if not something you would accept necessarily: the real force behind the assassination of General Soleimani were the Israelis and they are the ones some of Iran's retribution should include as well.

    p.s.
    The Europeans, incidentally, have begun the process of finally putting the fraud known as the JCPOA to rest, trying to use the 'snap back' provisions to re-institute sanctions against Iran for a deal everyone and their mom knows the US tore up already.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
  11. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    Why do you think that ?
    You can't blame them they did try their best...
     
  12. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    They have been pushing for for some time now, but to be fair, its hard to tell sometimes whether an idea really originates with the Israelis or with the neocons instead.

    Put differently, while the Israeli government is in bed with the neocons and vice versa, I am not sure which one is on top! Who is calling the shots: the military industrial complex + Christian Zionists + ultra Zionist Jews in America (collectively, the 'neocons'). Or the Israelis and their more traditional lobbyists (the pro Israel lobby).
    From my perspective, the sooner Iran stops this act of playing footsie with the Europeans and understands the full array of forces lined up against it, the better.
     
  13. K9Buck

    K9Buck Active Member

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    The U.S. doesn't need the Europeans to obliterate the Iranian war machine.
     
  14. K9Buck

    K9Buck Active Member

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    Apples and oranges. The U.S. military did not engage the Cuban military, a catastrophic mistake by President Kennedy.
     
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  15. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    The US has a much better shot, and chance, to "obliterate" the Iranian nation and economy than it does to "obliterate" the Iranian military forces that count. Including these:
     
  16. K9Buck

    K9Buck Active Member

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    You're deluding yourself. So be it.

    Why do you love the Iranian regime more than the Iranian people?
     
  17. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    I don't love the "Iranian regime" by any means. But I don't like lies.
     
  18. K9Buck

    K9Buck Active Member

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    They're a repressive, totalitarian regime that has caused great suffering to their people. The regime needs to go.
     
  19. Badaboom

    Badaboom Banned Donor

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    Do you know why the west, russia and china have pretty much stopped developing non-nuclear ballistic missiles?
    Because they suck as a weapon system! They take too much time to set up, are hard to hide and are ineffective at hitting moving targets. This is why most modern nations are fielding intelligent artillery systems and invest in airborn weapon systems instead. Cruise missiles and MRLs have their uses but ballistic non-nuclear missiles, not so much.
     
  20. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    As the head of Iran's aerospace forces said recently: that we have accurate cruise missiles that can hit their target with precision wouldn't be such a major development. But Iran's ballistic missile technology passed a huge milestone a few years ago, developing the capability to hit targets with precision.

    This is something Iran has proven in its attacks against US bases in Iraq (which used Iran's ballistic missiles), its previous attacks against certain groups (including in an attack against the headquarters of a Kurdish group in Iraq) and in developing ballistic missiles which can hit naval warships.

    But don't worry: Iran has very good cruise missiles as well. Very precise. Very powerful. And very hard to detect. They too have proven their worth in some past incidents.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
  21. Badaboom

    Badaboom Banned Donor

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    Not really powerful, not very precise and the launchers are quite easilly detected, even from space, and quite fragile since Iran will lose air superiority in the first few hours of declaring war. And still not able to do **** beside hitting static targets.

    You seem to be living in an alternative reality were Iran is on par to the USA/Russia/China military wise. It isn't!
    Iran doesn't have the means and ressources to play with the big dog.

    https://armedforces.eu/compare/country_USA_vs_Iran
     
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  22. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    The person who lives in alternative universe filled with propaganda is you, not me. What I have said about the precision and capabilities of Iran's ballistic missiles, you can verify from America's own assessments. And those from Israel as well. I am referring to experts on the subject with actual experience and knowledge, not polemical accounts from propaganda artists. Or irrelevant comparisons based on general conventional capabilities of the two countries.

    Anyway, I have given my assessments now as before. I have given numerous, informed, high ranking, and knowledgeable sources from US sources in the past and could do so again. But at the end of the day, I am not here to convince anyone of anything. You are entitled to imagine the world as you see it. And act accordingly.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
  23. Badaboom

    Badaboom Banned Donor

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    So you think Iran can win a war with missiles?
     
  24. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    Iran can deter aggression against it, absent some overwhelming justification that forces the US to bite the bullet and take substantial hits and suffer huge losses and damage to its allies and the world economy, by virtue of the following:

    1- Its ability to do serious damage to US bases and US naval forces in the region. The weapons to do the damage would the former will be Iran's ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, while the latter (US naval forces) are vulnerable to not only Iranian onshore and offshore missiles, but also the combination of Iran' swarming tactics and submarines ideally suited for warfare in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf.

    2- Its ability to inflict serious damage to the world economy, both by hitting the numerous oil and other installations in the region, as well as by closing down the Strait of Hormuz. A combination of ballistic, cruise missiles, drones and Iran's naval forces and mine laying capabilities would be involved.

    3- Its ability to inflict serious damage to US allies and interests, including Israel and the UAE. This would be done by both Iranian missiles as well as by missiles and rockets by Iranian allied forces, such as Hezbollah.

    4- Its ability to create havoc for the US presence and forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    In case deterrence doesn't work and there is a war, and Iran is forced to 'lash out', the US will be forced in turn to either try to limit the losses and find a face saving exit from the conflict (many assessments point in this direction in case of war with Iran); re-impose the draft and plan for a WWII style invasion of Iran; or brandish its nukes.

    Air power, in the meantime, would do great damage to Iranian infrastructure and the Iranian economy. Possibly to Iranian morale and willingness to accept the brunt of the punishment receives, in some unlikely scenarios, leading to capitulation by Iran or some sort of a coup or something of the sort, but they would not be able to take out Iran's firepower as it relates to most of the forces I mentioned. That would require a land invasion.

    What I say is based on past experience, including actually Desert Storm but also Israel's war against Hezbollah, the Saudi coalition's war against the Houthis and more. But ultimately, as any seasoned military officer or analyst recognizes, "predicting the outcome of any war is a fool's errand". Once the shooting starts, many previous plans and ideas about how things will unfold may end up being tossed out of the window and prove irrelevant to the actual conflict and its dynamics.
     
  25. Badaboom

    Badaboom Banned Donor

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    1- The USN doesn't have to enter the persian gulf to totally destroy your launch site.
    2- This would be bad for the europeans, but not that effective against the USA. And it would mean a war with both the europeans and the USA so you'll be doubly ****ed.
    3- This will be taken care by totally destroying Iran in reprisal. You can't win this way.
    4- Ensuring, again, your total destructions.

    Face it, Iran can only, at best, wage a defensive war for a few weeks, while they have zero capability to defeat the USA since they lack the necessary power projection and logistic.

    Also you should read up on the ROE for the USA. They've changed recently with the new administration. The next time the USA is attacked and has to fight a war, you may find that it's closer to WW2 than Desert Storm in scale and effect.
     

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