Harder Vic restrictions 'certainly expected'

Discussion in 'Australia, NZ, Pacific' started by scarlet witch, Jul 30, 2020.

  1. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We're not in Bangladesh :lol: living expenses & asset prices are vastly more than in third world countries. A Bangladeshi family could probably eat for two months with what we spend on groceries in one week. They could likely live for six months on one fortnightly house payment.

    Besides I quoted several papers reporting on the suicides, it is what it is. We've not even yet seen the full effect of shutting the economy down... reality will probably only hit us early next year.... but when is anyone's guess.

    The problem is not spending the same amount... it will ripple through the entire economy. Business can reopen but people are simply not going to go back to previous spending habits because a) they are scared b) they are unemployed c) they aren't paid enough d) inflation of food prices e) too much debt to service f) politicians don't realise that we're going to see a very different world when they one day decide to reopen.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2020
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  2. James California

    James California Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    :banana:~ That's the solution. We all move to Bangladesh !
     
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  3. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    :lol: I would stay out of a third world country for now... some are already eating their pet dogs, the neighbours could be next.
     
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  4. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    1) It's all relative. I know people living outside cities who live on the smell of an oily rag. Feeding the family for $100 a month, that kind of thing. If you lose your job and can't pay your $500k mortgage, MOVE. Do life differently. These are all choices, and if people don't make them it's because they don't want to.

    2) And as I said, that's silly. People who kill themselves because they might have to bump down from a champagne to a beer budget, are contemptible, sorry. Such people are emblems of just how soft and entitled capitalists are.

    3) Yes, a capitalist would say that not spending is a problem. Clearly that precariously balanced model is nowhere near robust enough to withstand unexpected challenges. Hopefully humanity is smart enough to recognise it's not reliable, or sustainable.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2020
  5. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Yes, but no middle class Australian family ought ever be so offended as to have to alter their expensive city lifestyle. Amiright? Can you imagine the psychic horror of having to live in some rural town .. where exist variety and challenges and all sorts of slights to the self-perception. Inconceivable! (Princess Bride reference).
     
  6. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    what are you suggesting... that people who don't eat their pet dogs are snobs?
     
  7. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    To demand pity for First Worlders because their $1mil home (and commensurate lifestyle) might need to be replaced with a $500k home (and lifestyle), is grotesque.
     
  8. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    demand pity and having sympathy for are two different things, besides the bubbles (housing and sharemarket) were caused by parties & events outside of their control, effectively it makes them victims of the system.... no one is arguing that they are equal victims to those having to eat their pets
     
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  9. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Schitt's Creek

    https://www.netflix.com/za/title/80036165
     
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  10. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

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    My mother's family have been farming in Australia since the 1840s & my Dad's family have been city dwelling working (and eventually middle) class since the 1850s. I lived most of my first 18 years in the country & the following decades in Melbourne. The level of insularity I observed among rural people was much, much higher than for most urban dwellers. That isn't true for all rural dwellers, just as not all urban dwellers are more outward looking, but the difference was very noticable & very clear. I believe things are changing for the better in the bush, which is good to hear.
     
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  11. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

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    There may end up being an increase in suicides greater than COVID deaths, but that will only be because we still have a very low rate of COVID deaths due to lockdown. There are about 3000 suicides per year in Australia. So, if the rate over the next 12 months goes up by 100% that would be 3000 more. COVID deaths may end up under 1000 over the same period, so even a one third increase in suicides would be a bit higher.

    HOWEVER
    that is based on a scenario where we lock down, thus causing more suicides but fewer COVID deaths. As Sweden appears to be the model de jure for the 'let all the people I don't care about die' crowd, and it is a more comparable society than East Asian ones, so lets see what a non-lockdown that would apparently save all these suicides looks like. Sweden currently has about 5800 COVID deaths, so just on that raw number even a doubling of the suicide rate would still be slightly over half that number. However, Sweden is only about 10 million people, so we need to increase that figure to an equivalent for 25 million people. That brings the equivalent for Australia to almost 15,000 deaths!

    That would require something like a 500% increase in suicides to be comparable. Now, I'm sure that there are people who are genuinely concerned about the mental health impacts of COVID lockdowns. As someone wiht an understanding of such issues I am not only checking my own mental health, but that of friends & family. HOWEVER, if you see people who have been advocating for a lifting of restrictions for other reasons suddenly latch on to mental health, and then start flogging BS figures to justify their sudden conversion to the cause, you can safely dismiss them. If they really cared about other people dying, rather than their own personal inconvenience, they would be supporting the path that will save the most lives - the one we are on.

    Selfishness masquerading as compassion is a particularly disagreeable phenomenon.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2020
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  12. garry17

    garry17 Well-Known Member

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    First of all, you are making assumptions based upon current circumstances to demand change to those circumstances. Should the world open up to economy rather than address the virus the assertion you make could well be far different and the death toll could be far greater. In fact there is a presumption that the death toll would be 10%... Is the suicide rate the same??? Predictions of the future to weigh one crisis over another is not only stupid, it is fraught with danger.

    And secondly, if you are not going to address suicides before the health crisis, don't then try to assume YOUR complacency is that of the nation.
    And here is valid point, but you cannot simply put people into a situation of deciding who should live or die just because you concerned over economies scale. In isolation your point on fiscal easing (which is what you’re talking about) is serious problem. BUT since this has world-wide implications then the issues of ignorance of outcome is less concerning.


    The fact is the nations who stand higher due to less easing and economic position stands to climb above others who did not address the virus and those who did not support economy over self-interest. AS (as you point out) the world economies are vastly different than previous pandemic or world crisis, nobody knows. BUT it is a given that economies that emerge with least affected will be better placed.
    Stop praying to a deity to lead you by the nose and keep yourself safe, living in the life style you expect. I have continued to point out to people there are a hell of a lot of people who would die to have their children live in a tenth of your luxury lifestyle.


    The fact is the reason for the second lockdown is because people are too self-centred to consider others. Today, with a big push to simply wash hands I still not many people use public toilets, I note probably about 30% don’t. Sports events still see total lack of ‘social distancing’. Stores have complete lack of capacity responsibility by patrons and let us not get on restaurants and pubs. Uber eats, menu log, and other food deliver are just best way to spread a virus to those people who are just far too lazy to cook for themselves, let alone getting off their hairy freckle and going to get their meal, reducing the amount of contacts their food has. Is it any wonder the virus spreads like wild fire.


    But hay, we ignore the most basic advice to minimise potential infections and complain like 2 year olds when we cannot continue to do what we want regardless of the consequences.


    I said it before, the nation has to change. I say people have to consider others and not just what is expedient for them. I believe the nation was opened too early before because the virus has a 72 hour (in general) period between infectious period and detection. Most people don’t travel far in that time so the government felt they could isolate suburbs. However, many cross many different distances for many various reasons.

    The time to really consider the suicide rate was long gone but if you really care stand up now and push policy that address that very point, not policy that simply shifts the blame and cause of death. While politicians want to fight over lockdown compared to economy more people will die on both sides.

    So I say stop relying on everybody else to fix the issues you complain about and start working to fix it yourself. Reach out to others and help them. Support local (and I mean local) business. Help others to do the same. Create a buying group within your suburb or just your street and buy in bulk from local vendors selling local products. Use local tradies and support your local charities that support local needy.


    Don’t just complain because YOUR inconvenienced because that is really old now and it simply demonstrates the change that is needed to grow not only business but in YOUR nation.
     
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  13. garry17

    garry17 Well-Known Member

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    I blame my generation for the result of the self-interest. It gets hard to stand up for decency when we wear the blame for these issues...


    The lack of knowledge of this virus is possibly the scariest thing. The long term affects are very serious and there is a consideration that there is some brain issues (damage???) which could be for life or just short term.


    More serious implications that should people should consider the consequences of not simply doing the basics. There is another in the group, anti-bodies only appear to last a couple months.

    I believe this is the most barbed part. In Australia, people are hard pressed to be personally affected by this virus. Everywhere else about 90% of the world, you are hard pressed to find somebody that isn’t touched personally by this virus. Not that I wished them to be, but I can imagine the outcry if that was reversed. Australia in general still has that “it won’t affect me” attitude. And that is sad, because the lack of consideration is what is killing people…
     
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  14. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

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    Just think of the reaction in Victoria at the moment to a few hundred deaths - the government is quite rightly being hauled over the coals for death toll that is already among the highest for any disaster in Australian history. Yet this is just a drop in the bucket compared to what we would have if we just opened up. Sadly, some people can only understand tragedy when it very directly touches them, and even then some can't properly empathize. Personally I don't understand such selfishness. Not sad about that.

    I have an acquaintance in Australia (not a close friend) whose mother has died. While she was elderly, the family is still devastated. I work with a lady from Chile. At the peak of the epidemic they were clocking 6000 cases per day and have at least 10,000 deaths - the sort of death toll that we could easily have had if the 'open up & let people die' brigade had their way. A close friend of hers was in a coma for weeks and reached the point where the doctors basicaly told everyone to just pray. He survived, but is still in rehab. She has other friends and acquaintances who have died - none of them over 50 years old. The wife of a mate has family in Kyrgyzstan. She has already lost several family members, the health system has collapsed and no one believes the official figures. Things are so bad there that she headed to NSW & QLD (before lockdown) to earn some money to send home by fruit picking. Other friends from Africa say that most suspected COVID deaths aren't even being recorded - especially in rural areas. People are just being buried.

    This thing is real and terrible and I really don't want it killing thousands of Australians the way it is killing thousands of people in other nations.. If that means some personal inconvenience or financial sacrifice then that is a small price to pay.
     
  15. garry17

    garry17 Well-Known Member

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    Most are simply personally inconvenienced by these lockdowns, I sympathise. Some are seriously mentally affected and I do realise they need help. Many simply need support to get through, but complaining that the government should fix these problems because you’re inconvenienced is ludicrous…

    Instead of demonstrating immigration, racism because it makes you look empathetic, try actually reaching out to those who might need help. Talk to your neighbour every day if you’re in lockdown. Just drop somebody something they cannot get easily if you can. Stop complaining about things and acting. It isn’t hard to just listen to others let them vent or just talk sh*t about the world today.

    You know if you hear somebody needs toilet paper, just drop them a pack or a few rolls. We had couple almost in tears when we gave them (of all things) a pack of toilet paper. During the big date roll rush.

    IT doesn’t take much to change the world around you, if you just stop whinging and just do. and it takes even less to change somebody else's life for the better
     
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  16. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

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    All sensible words, but some people live to whinge. It seems to give their life meaning. Perhaps they have empty lives and complaining gives them purpose. Perhaps they are from cultures where complaint and avoidance of responsibility are ingrained. Hard to say.
     
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  17. garry17

    garry17 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, the problem is when the politicians act on these people...
     
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  18. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You can blah blah blah all about how wonderful your lockdown strategy is but if you ignore the economic destruction you are not looking at the whole picture, and that is essentially the problem... an inability or perhaps refusal to look ahead and recognise the damage caused.

    The politicians are going to pay a heavy price for this lockdown... because the fallout of this lockdown is going to drag on all the way to the next election. Things are going to look a lot different looking back than they do looking forward
     
  19. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    I doubt you and I are likely to agree on what unworldiness looks like.

    FTR, for me .. it has nothing whatsoever to do with knowledge of international affairs or a preference for aged cheddar. It's far more about ignoring the packaging and focusing on the fundamentals. IOW can you talk? are you breathing? are you not murdering kittens? Yes, yes, and no? You're golden! Whereas non-migrant city folk tend to care about your politics, your religion, the finer details of your attitude towards social constructs, your postcode, your cheese, etc etc etc. If you deviate from the proscribed iteration in any of these areas, you're basically terrible. Tolerance of non-aligned politics/religion etc is usually only extended to non-whites, and is a result of inability to regard brown people as fully realised individuals.

    Country folk don't view non-white people as noble but powerless peasants, and white people as lofty power centres who thereby have greater responsibility to align to dogma.
     
  20. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    So why look backwards? If you hold on to yesterday, you're only going to be disappointed.
     
  21. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    I have no sympathy, sorry. If you've built your life upon a fragile and easily damaged foundation, you have chosen to take that risk. None of my business.

    The system is not harming those who adapt, at all. In fact it's rewarding quite a lot of people. There are many who have found the whole pandemic thing a glorious epiphany, realising for perhaps the first time, that they've been doing it all wrong. Some have made more money than they ever have. There are others who've gained happiness and serenity, in not having to interact with the rat race daily. Still others who've save a ton of money by not going out. The system doesn't care what you choices you make, it just blunders on like time. We adapt to it, or we perish.
     
  22. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    :lol: of course they're going to look backwards, we look to history all the time and if we don't we'll repeat the mistakes of yesterday.

    Next year we're likely going to feel the financial outcome of today's lockdown.... we are all going to focus directly on the decisions of stage 4 made today. Decisions that ignored the disastrous effect of stage 4 lockdown when combined with the current micro & macro economic environment.
     
  23. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I fear we are talking about two different systems... in your system you are firmly in control, in my system the central banks are firmly in control
     
  24. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    We both live in the same system.
     
  25. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Sure. And some will adapt, while others won't.

    You can't do anything about it - people very often prefer to sit and wait for a miracle. Which of course tells you they're not seriously in trouble. Have you ever tried to actually provide useful help to those who encounter financial calamity? I have .. many times. And when I say help I mean free (private, not with us) houses. We've been offering this to various people, in various circumstances, for the past 20+ years. What it's taught me is that there is broke, and there is broke. One is merely a bleat, the other is genuine. You can spot the genuine because they will say 'yes' to a free house, while the bleaters will politely demure because the house is not in a preferred location.
     

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