Has the Global Temperature Trend Turned to Cooling?

In 2016 a powerful El Nino broke a lengthy Pause in warming and created another "hottest year ever." Since then temperatures have fallen, and that decline seems likely to continue indefinitely. It is now fair to ask whether the overall temperature trend has turned from warming to cooling.

Solar Update September, 2021
2021 › 09 › 22 › solar-update-september-2021
by solar hemisphere 1985 – 2021 ... Breaking down solar activity by hemisphere shows that solar activity ... relative length of the solar cycles. ... Figure 6: F10.7 flux for solar cycles 19 to 25 aligned
modulates the solar signal on the decadal scale, but that the QBO is itself modulated by the solar variability


Our planet’s temperature peaked in 2016 and has been in a disciplined decline since. It is in a channel 0.5°C wide with a slope of -0.03°C per annum. The atmosphere had been warming at 0.013°C per annum according to Dr Roy Spencer’s work. If the established cooling trend continues it will only take another decade to get back to the temperatures of the early 1980s. With the cooling trend firmly established, the question is: Can the proximate cause be found in the solar record?


. . . .

 

The UAH global temperature anomaly record is consistent with a recent turn to cooling.
UAH Global Temperature Update for April, 2022: +0.26 deg. C
May 2nd, 2022
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2022 was +0.26 deg. C, up from the March, 2022 value of +0.15 deg. C.

The linear warming trend since January, 1979 still stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land). . . .

 

The most conservative characterization is that another Pause is under way. Monckton is always cautious and respectful of the facts.
The New Pause Grows by Another Month to 7 Years 7 Months
Guest Blogger
Here is the truth. There has been no global warming – none at all – for 7 years 7 months.

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Amid all the fabricated panic about an imagined “climate emergency” caused by global warming, one fact will be found almost nowhere but here. As the totalitarians tighten their fell grip on all the news and internet media, any truth inconvenient enough to run counter to the ruthlessly-enforced Party Line is suppressed. Here, however, you will find the still, small voice of calm. Here is the truth. There has been no global warming – none at all – for 7 years 7 months. Yet, during that time, a significant fraction of the influence of humanity’s energetic industries and enterprises on the climate has occurred, without so much as a flicker of response from global mean surface temperature.


The revisionists are, of course, maintaining that long Pauses are exactly what one would expect even with an underlying warming trend. But they can only get away with that by saying that each Pause begins with a prominent el Niño Southern Oscillation warming in the tropical eastern Pacific, such as those which occurred in 2016 and, to a somewhat lesser extent, in 2020. . . .

 

More Big Oil propaganda?

SSDD..

 

I haven't seen any abnormal 'cooling' or 'warming' here in Colorado -- BUT IT IS DRIER THAN THE FUGGING KALAHARI DESERT! I've lived in the Rocky Mountain West since 1977 and I have never seen it this dry before... a horrible drought that is now more-or-less in its 21st year!

 

Lol. Are they now? Odd given that 2021 was still one of the hottest years on record, despite La Niña conditions. I suspect once La Niña is over, 2021 will be the coldest year in the coming generation's living memory.

 

Yes, that's what really screws up in Australia. Record heat AND lack of rainfall.

 

Oh, you mean the climate changed.

 

Lots of snow in Colorado.
Vail Mountain Completes Longest Season on Record with Snow to Spare
Charles Rotter
New flakes fell on a 47-inch mid-mountain base on rare May Closing Day . . .

 

I didn't want to trigger Big Oil propagandists. They have feelings too, ya know.

 

I'm sure they cry all the way to the bank..

 

The data suggest otherwise.
The West Has Gotten Much Wetter Over The Past 500 Years
Posted on August 14, 2015 by tonyheller
Climate experts claim that global warming brings drought to the west. Data tells us the exact opposite – the west has gotten much wetter since the Little Ice Age (which fraudster Michael Mann tried to erase.) The Longest Measure of … Continue reading →


24mPNormUS.png (688×531)

 

Every year since 2016 has been cooler than 2016.

 

More inability to discuss the topic.

SSDD.

 

Australia is always dry. Only Antarctica receives less rainfall.

 

India and Pakistan....hottest spring ever.

 

Yeah, some of the ski areas did fine... but look at the DROUGHT MAP of Colorado and the problem we face jumps right out at you.

 

My post concerns what the situation for most of Colorado is for the last 21 years... not the last 500. BTW, a 1,000 years ago, there was a 100-year drought that forced the Indians to abandon Mesa Verde.

 

Hardly, but your constant propaganda trolling is hideously corrupt, and annoying.

 

I'm sure advocates of the Ptolemaic system felt the same way about Copernicus.
Which parts do you think are propaganda?

 

It's a sad situation we are facing now, Jack. Soon our Colorado skies will be filled with the dusky haze of wildfires from all over the west, just like they have for the last several years during late spring and summer.

The best we've got is "abnormally dry".

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CO

 

Good luck on the wildfires. Friend of mine in NM dealing with that now. Number of fires is down in recent years although acreage burned is up.
Wildfire Statistics - FAS Project on Government Secrecy
https://sgp.fas.org › crs › misc
PDF
4 days ago — The acreage figure is more than double the average annual acreage burned in the 1990s (3.3 million acres), although a greater number of fires ...

 

Long ago, I lived in Southern New Mexico, for almost five years. Lots and lots of juniper and piñon forests down there... but back then it rained often when rainstorms would brew up frequently during the 'monsoon' months in late spring, through the summers. It also snowed quite a lot during the winter because of the storms that came up from Baja California. Without those, the whole area is a huge tinderbox... and much the same is true of a lot of Colorado, except that on top of everything else, we have many square miles of dead trees that were killed by mountain pine beetles which are native Colorado bark beetles. The bugs predominately infest ponderosa, limber pine, and lodgepole pine. It's looking more and more like a 'perfect storm', Jack, but a 'storm' without rain, snow, ice, or anything else with water in it.

 

2020 Tied for Warmest Year on Record, NASA Analysis Shows