HOR generic congressional ballot polling - 2020 compared to 2018

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I am using RCP as a pretty reliable source for this material (though they sometimes conviently forget a poll that isn't conservative enough for them).

    For this thread to work over a long time, you simply need these 2 links:

    2020 Congressional ballot

    2018 Congressional ballot

    So, let's get started. Here are the 2020 polls from the middle of August 2019 until now (a span of two months):

    2016-10-016 House Generic pollling 2020 - this juncture in time.png


    And here, the same time-span in 2017 for the 2018 generic ballot:

    2016-10-016 House Generic pollling 2018 - this juncture in time.png

    I'll be updating this about once a month.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2019
  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Time for an update. When I created this thread on October 16th, 2019, the aggregate was D +7.
    Today, the aggregate is: D +7.7

    2020-01-004 HOR congressional ballot.png
     
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  3. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    So what does those spreadsheets tell us?
     
  4. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That the 2020 elections are gonna be fun
     
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  5. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    One useful tidbit for this thread right now is the primary dates, noting those that coincide with the Presidential preference primaries. A few of those (Alabama for example) were the same day in 2016 and impacted both primaries greatly.
     
  6. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    At this point in time in January of 2018, the RCP aggregate had Democrats up by 11.4% and the RCP average ended with Democrats up 7.3% (a drop of 4.1%). Democrats ended up winning by 8.4%.

    538 also tracks the generic balloting data at at this point in time in January of 2018, the 538 aggregate had Democrats up by 9.9% and the 548 average ended with Democrats up by 8.7% (a drop of 1.2%). Again, Democrats ended up winning by 8.4%.

    As an initial point, I find it interesting that in comparison to each other, RCP started as more favorable to the Democrats, but ended up with a slightly more pessimistic view, when compared to 538. The ending can probably be boiled down to the fact that RCP incorporated the final (and absurd) Rasmussen poll that suggested Republicans would win by +1 while 538 appears to have ignored that poll altogether.

    In terms of the impact of the data on 2020, 538 currently has Democrats with a lead of 6.6% and RCP currently has Democrats with a lead of 7.2%. Given the historical data, I would predict that the generic balloting to tighten a little further - perhaps to somewhere around Democrats by 5.5%-6.2%.
     
  7. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    As an update to this data, now that we are nearly two months further along, 538 has Democrats with a 7.3% lead and RCP has Democrats has a lead of 9.0%. That is a 0.7% and 1.8% increase from the last update, respectively.

    At this point in 2018, 538 had Democrats with a lead of 8.3%. RCP had Democrats with a lead of 7.8%. Again, Democrats ended up winning by 8.4%. The data from these generic polling appear largely accurate even this far out.
     

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